Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ggies07]

I don't know about you guys, but I have already taken a vacation day for 9.22...we don't know what time the event will be held, but even if it's at the end of the day, I want to be on here with all of you all day long!

 

[Nocturnal]

I'm feeling today will be in the 1450-1520 range. Thoughts?

Well, now we know the price at which you can be bought - should the need arise.

The Ebay auction is live as of this morning. My price does increase as TSLA goes up though so act fast.

I know some people think humans are good, but if you can get random people to torturer/kill somebody just on the word of an authority figure, then we know what handing people money to just lie would be easy in most cases. Milgram experiment - Wikipedia

It’s over 1 million. My father in law just ordered on Saturday night and there are 906K reservation numbers separating us and I was over 100K after the first reservation.

I thought there were other vehicles included in that reservation bucket though? I definitely agree that the CT demand will be staggering, and then once people get over the shock of their looks in the first year and realize the utility, it will go even higher.

Aside from raw utility as a toy and tow vehicle, I'm interesed in seeing it as used as a shuttle van. I see all these sprinter vans being used to go back and forth between a hotel and airport all day and it drives me crazy. Perfect use case for an EV with 6 seats and room for luggage, especially robotaxi.

 

[UkNorthampton]

I don't want much focus on dubiously competitive companies, my worry is that a collapse of a dodgy company affects legit companies and harms the mission. This applies to China, but probably more in USA. Any analyst who can't (or refuses) to see and publicise the red flags on some obviously dodgy companies and individuals need something unpleasant to happen to them and their employers. My suspicion is that they are knowingly (and indeed, are instructed) to cause problems.

 

[Joesantelli]

The day, today is.
Feel it, I can.

What day do you think today is !

 

[Yvan]

View attachment 572191
TSLA chart above

View attachment 572193
QQQ chart above

Welcome to Moderation Monday. A $54 climb shouldn't normally be something to sneeze at, but with $120 and above climbs on Monster Mondays the norm lately, today's $54 climb felt somehow milktoast, especially in light of what you know who has in mind for the stock later this week. Today's trading showed attempts to climb through 1500 that were all foiled by the cap. A pushdown leading into 2pm happened without any news or macro dip, thus continuing the capping and afternoon pushdown scheme of the past few weeks. A climb of $54 on volume of only 8.8M shares is impressive, but it also suggests a low volume environment that is easy to manipulate.

To be fair to the pirates engineering TSLA's trading patterns, let's take a moment and consider the possibility of explaining these trading patterns through a large stakeholder deciding to trim shares. It's possible, right?
* Weekly patterns- A large investor doesn't sell lightly on Mondays and then increase the selling as the week progresses.
* Daily patterns- A large investor doesn't defend a price such as 1500 by selling as heavily as necessary when the stock price approaches it from below. Rather, they might moderate their selling and allow the stock price to creep higher, draw in more buyers, and thus pave the way for selling shares at an even higher price. Further, a large investor doesn't emphasize late afternoon for trimming shares and artificially depress the stock price going into close when the same selling could take place during brisk trading morning hours without extracting such a toll in the stock price.

Bottom line: the most plausible explanation continues to be that hedge funds are profiting by tempting call buyers to place their bets on Mondays as the stock price soars, ensuring those weekly call options fail to pay off by depressing the stock price come Friday, and profiting by pushing down the stock price in the afternoons with short-selling and then covering at a lower price later in the afternoon. It's a profitable enterprise, there is no SEC minding the store, and so it continues until S&P500 inclusion or other substantially positive news breaks the pattern and the plateau gives way to a hefty climb, as we've seen throughout the 2020 rally.

Coronavirus update
The chart immediately below suggests that the second wave that the United States has been suffering through has peaked and is in decline. The Florida chart below it is representative of states such as Texas, Florida, and California which were in the news a couple weeks ago but have now peaked and are in decline. As I mentioned months ago, some states will see the virus get away from them, they'll need to readjust their rules, and they will once again get the virus heading lower, which is exactly what we're seeing. My biggest hope right now is that we see positive results with the various antibody therapeutics that could greatly lessen the number of deaths from those who are hospitalized with the virus, until vaccines arrive at year end or early in 2021. Several of those therapeutics are in Phase 3 human trials now, and we could hear good word about the trials at any time. Unlike vaccines, where a bad vaccine can have significant negative consequences on the population as a whole if it is released too early, therapeutics based upon lab-grown antibodies could initially be primarily used for the most seriously ill patients in hospitals. For these patients, the risk vs. reward ratio of using the therapeutics could be exceedingly high, and consequently I would not be surprised to see these therapeutics released much earlier than vaccines for combating active COVID 19 cases.

View attachment 572197
View attachment 572208

View attachment 572192
Looking at the tech chart, today's rally brought TSLA closer to, but not above (at closing) the mid-bollinger band, which stands at 1495. Another plateau has formed in the vicinity of 1500 and it'll be interesting to see how long that plateau exists before being disrupted in a major way.

Regarding strategies, I know a few traders who are selling some shares at peak Monday prices and then rebuying on Friday. The main issue with this plan is that if the S&P500 inclusion is announced for TSLA, or other positive news comes forward, those practicing this trade would see a smaller gain if the stock price appreciates significantly.

Conditions:
* Dow up 236 (0.89%)
* NASDAQ up 158 (1.47%)
* TSLA 1485.00, up 54.24 (3.79%)
* TSLA volume 8.8M shares
* Oil 40.74
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 37%

Thanks @Papafox for sharing all this information. Note that the S&P500 index balancing is done on a fixed schedule. The next one has an effective date of September 18, 2020 (download the spreadsheet in the Index Balancing section on the webpage Methodologies - S&P Dow Jones Indices).

 

[Dangerous Fish]

What day do you think today is !

It's Tuesday isn't it?

 

[SarahsDad]

Another nice take on Giga Austin progress:

 

[dl003]

What day do you think today is !

They say "it will happen when you least expect it."
Today shall remain nameless till such time the event herein implied has come to pass.

 

[gwright]

I don't know about you guys, but I have already taken a vacation day for 9.22...we don't know what time the event will be held, but even if it's at the end of the day, I want to be on here with all of you all day long!

Same here. I am wondering whether there will be any reservation requirement or tickets required for either event. As a shareholder I should be able to attend, but with COVID rules could be different. Anyone have any clue about access to 9/22 event?

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Do you expect many European Cybertruck owners to have the need for carrying more than 550 kg of weight? (Note: I’m not a truck owner)

That's the driver plus two visiting Americans.

 

[elasalle]

Ford CEO Jim Hackett to retire, handing reins to Jim Farley, as restructuring plan fails to reignite stock

 

[Krugerrand]

They say "it will happen when you least expect it."
Today shall remain nameless till such time the event herein implied has come to pass.

I feel we should have a contest that involves holding one’s breath while sitting on one’s hands.

 

[Mike Smith]

Ford CEO Jim Hackett to retire, handing reins to Jim Farley, as restructuring plan fails to reignite stock

They need someone with more office furniture experience.

 

[evermore]

Robyn was definitely great for some time, she was popping up quite often in interviews and features, but as of late haven't hear a peep from her? Strange.

First week of November and Elon can have the Tesla chair back, will have served his SEC time.

I think there's another year and three months remaining. The settlement was in 2018, he stepped down in November of that year, and the ban was for 3 years, placing the end in November 2021:

SEC.gov | Elon Musk Settles SEC Fraud Charges; Tesla Charged With and Resolves Securities Law Charge

 

[elasalle]

Russian dealer looks to zero customs tariff to lift Tesla sales
Moscow cut customs fees for electric cars to zero from May, down from 48-54% for individuals and 15% for legal entities

 

[Nocturnal]

Does everyone expect the HumEV to suck? I can't get past the aerodynamics. Utility seems to be poor as well with that tiny bed.

That's the driver plus two visiting Americans.

I feel we should have a contest that involves holding one’s breath while sitting on one’s hands.

Long term holdors are probably pretty good at this.

 

[Tslynk67]

I think there's another year and three months remaining. The settlement was in 2018, he stepped down in November of that year, and the ban was for 3 years, placing the end in November 2021:

SEC.gov | Elon Musk Settles SEC Fraud Charges; Tesla Charged With and Resolves Securities Law Charge

Doh, you're right, I has two years in my feeble memory...!

Actually, good, I'm quite OK with Robyn in place.

 

[Tslynk67]

Well that's a friskier opening than I expected...

 

[MABMAB]

Nice to see 3 days worth of highs taken out,. now to hold on to it

 

[SOULPEDL]

What goes up?