Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Runarbt]

Tesla be like this:

This isnt an official SpaceX render, is it? Way cool, but think its fan-art?

 

[Unpilot]

First attempt at a booster 6th re-use and landing...

And they Nailed it!

 

[StealthP3D]

Your 'bigger picture' presumably spans a time frame longer than 15 sec.

This was shorting. Don't need to pretend otherwise, or try to hand-wave it away.

It was a burst of selling. We don't know whether it was short-selling or not.

 

[Gilesmiles]

Coolest guy on the planet did it again!

 

[YAWD]

View attachment 577724 Headline the other day said EM is now the 4th Richest man in the world.

I think around Sept, he will also be eligible for his 3rd tranche, so will keep moving up.

+ I am using this chart as a guideline on what can be achieved, and also the innings(Operational Milestones/Market Cap) in which I will slowly start selling.

This is a very important chart and I am sure most Tesla bulls have memorized this to heart. The thing that surprised me most about this chart were not operation milestones but market cap based milestones. As a CEO, Elon could make accurate assessment of when Tesla would achieve those operational milestones and then he added some margin to it to make it a total of 10 year plan. His bet on market cap which is out of his hands shows that he had high confidence back then that those would be the easiest to beat and which is what we are seeing play out in real time even before battery day and cybertruck. $3000 in a year looks easy right now.

 

[dl003]

We're primed for a climb to 1950 which can be easily defended if reached, unless macros crash substantially.

 

[MartinAustin]

There’s several terms that could be used in this situation. I’ll start off with; stick in the mud.

We’ve analyzed to death (in fact I’m pretty sure we’ve all died at this point and have gone to simulation heaven, we just don’t know it) every detail of the company, the man, the technology, the SP, the shorts, basket weaving techniques, the batteries, the future second by second, the coded Twitter account, trains, planes and automobiles, the competition, the floor plans for Giga Nevada, Shanghai, and Berlin (next week Texas), the balance sheet, the unbalance sheet, the refresh, robo-everything, the criminals and bad actors, and on and on the list goes.

We’ve dissected all of it, ad nauseam. Like I literally have barfed.

It’s okay and refreshingly normal for people to take a break and enjoy life and the fruits of their labor. We’re winning on all fronts, so your ‘depression’ at the display of joy here simply solidifies my continued views that people suck and why nobody is invited to my island, ever.

Just to further make you depressed, because I’d never want to rain on your parade, my technical analysis is that the SP hits $2000 before the split because my mother called it two weeks ago out of the blue. She’s supposed to be dead according to many doctors and specialists, but she’s not. She’s quite literally a miracle. So I figure anything that comes out of her mouth is the word of The Universe.

Fair points

 

[StealthP3D]

There she blows!

 

[ZachF]

Musk is closing in on the ZuckerBot:

Real Time Billionaires

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Vicious price action again today. We're not even at the split yet. Or Battery Day. Or INCLUSION.

Rare combination of FOMO and all retail investors saying "I CAN'T sell right now."

 

[mejojo]

What has 2 thumbs and bought 25 weeklies (1850 and 1900) while down in the valley and now feels like flexing a little?

 

[Runarbt]

What has 2 thumbs and bought 25 weeklies (1850 and 1900) while down in the valley and now feels like flexing a little?

YOUjojo?

I have 10x $2500 weeklies.. 3x so far.. but want to hang in a bit longer.. ;-)

 

[Singuy]

Vicious price action again today. We're not even at the split yet. Or Battery Day. Or INCLUSION.

Rare combination of FOMO and all retail investors saying "I CAN'T sell right now."

Which is also scary. Could be the biggest buy the rumor sell the news in Tesla history with everything converging all at once. Curious to see where Tesla is at when all the dust settles..if it ever settles..

Watch 4d fsd comes out and stir up more drama.

 

[Nocturnal]

Musk is closing in on the ZuckerBot:

Real Time Billionaires

Zuck is a smart guy who wanted to get laid and lucked into a new type of media. Elon is a real visionary.

 

[mickificki]

What has 2 thumbs and bought 25 weeklies (1850 and 1900) while down in the valley and now feels like flexing a little?

 

[ZsoZso]

Let's assume @Artful Dodger 's theory about the dividend-split forcing the hands of the MM's to "legitimize" their naked shorting (by borrowing the shares and/or covering them). The current rally maybe an indication of that squeeze as it seems to be bigger than a usual reaction to stock-split (see AAPL). So what can we expect in the near-future ?
Here is my hypothesis (mind you I don't really know what I am talking about, so definitely do not take it as advice):

• Naked short squeeze continues until this Friday (21st) driven by MM's to legitimize their shenanigans
• Next week we trade mostly side-ways just following macros with usual high-beta multiple as the squeeze pressure is no longer in play, but MMs still cannot return to naked shorting until the split is executed (otherwise they would still need to cough up the extra 4 shares for each naked shorted one)
• The week following the split from 31st they can get back into naked shorting, plus all the traders who were front-running the split would be inclined to take profit, so I would expect a dip there
• Whenever the S&P500 committee pulls their *sugar* together and make the announcement of TSLA inclusion will trigger the next big run-up
• Battery day 22nd Sept will be another milestone which will trigger a runup and a following dip in the usual buy-the-rumor-sell-the-news style

So these are my expectations for the next month or so, although I have been known to be wrong about SP movements...

 

[humbaba]

OT Dojo


Speaking to Dojo:
Yeah, integration is good. Although, the volume of processors for Dojo may not match the extra NRE needed for SoW (10,000 times their FPGA count processing wise).
Regardless, based on the recent tweets about Dojo, it seems like this would be too early for the chip to be for it. HW4 was announced at Autopilot day and will be in the millions of units, so it fits better with this leak.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1294725858960084992

Thinking about the timeline for Dojo has me wondering: how can Tesla be close to FSD when they are still years away from having their supercomputer? If they could really reach FSD by -- say -- end of 2021 then what would be the point of Dojo?

Then thinking about the scale of Dojo -- it will be a competitive supercomputer whether or not it ranks first -- if Tesla believes they need Dojo then what does that imply about pre-Dojo progress?

Which reinforces my FSD skepticism. ARK's high valuation of Tesla is predicated on true autonomy (robotaxi network) by 2024. No, I'm not losing any conviction (especially because I never had any to begin with when it comes to FSD) but if Dojo is currently at sim levels using FPGA what does that suggest about timeline before it can actually be made? And how long will it need to be operational before it can produce FSD? I realize the latter is an open ended question, but I would think someone familiar with chip design and production could hazard the former.

Don't get me wrong, I love my autopilot and am looking forward to (hopefully) having access to the rewrite this year or early next. But I just don't see how its plausible to have everything lined up and done by 2024 for a full self driving robotaxi network.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Successful lift off for Falcon 9. Are you watching $TSLA?

Thought it was successful lift off for $TSLA and are you watching Falcon 9.....

 

[Unpilot]

Let's assume @Artful Dodger 's theory about the dividend-split forcing the hands of the MM's to "legitimize" their naked shorting (by borrowing the shares and/or covering them). The current rally maybe an indication of that squeeze as it seems to be bigger than a usual reaction to stock-split (see AAPL). So what can we expect in the near-future ?
Here is my hypothesis (mind you I don't really know what I am talking about, so definitely do not take it as advice):

• Naked short squeeze continues until this Friday (21st) driven by MM's to legitimize their shenanigans
• Next week we trade mostly side-ways just following macros with usual high-beta multiple as the squeeze pressure is no longer in play, but MMs still cannot return to naked shorting until the split is executed (otherwise they would still need to cough up the extra 4 shares for each naked shorted one)
• The week following the split from 31st they can get back into naked shorting, plus all the traders who were front-running the split would be inclined to take profit, so I would expect a dip there
• Whenever the S&P500 committee pulls their *sugar* together and make the announcement of TSLA inclusion will trigger the next big run-up
• Battery day 22nd Sept will be another milestone which will trigger a runup and a following dip in the usual buy-the-rumor-sell-the-news style

So these are my expectations for the next month or so, although I have been known to be wrong about SP movements...

Missed blow out 3rd quarter numbers and the following huge profit.

 

[MP3Mike]

Thinking about the timeline for Dojo has me wondering: how can Tesla be close to FSD when they are still years away from having their supercomputer? If they could really reach FSD by -- say -- end of 2021 then what would be the point of Dojo?

Then thinking about the scale of Dojo -- it will be a competitive supercomputer whether or not it ranks first -- if Tesla believes they need Dojo then what does that imply about pre-Dojo progress?

Which reinforces my FSD skepticism. ARK's high valuation of Tesla is predicated on true autonomy (robotaxi network) by 2024. No, I'm not losing any conviction (especially because I never had any to begin with when it comes to FSD) but if Dojo is currently at sim levels using FPGA what does that suggest about timeline before it can actually be made? And how long will it need to be operational before it can produce FSD? I realize the latter is an open ended question, but I would think someone familiar with chip design and production could hazard the former.

Don't get me wrong, I love my autopilot and am looking forward to (hopefully) having access to the rewrite this year or early next. But I just don't see how its plausible to have everything lined up and done by 2024 for a full self driving robotaxi network.

I don't think Dojo is necessary for FSD, it just makes the training process faster so they can iterate/test to improve it faster than with their current compute setup.

For example Andrew Karpathy said that "A full build of Autopilot neural networks involves 48 networks that take 70,000 GPU hours to train." But what we don't know is how many GPUs they currently have running in parallel. (So how many calendar hours/days does a build currently take?)

And how long does it take to run their tests in their simulator before they even test a build in a car?