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Check USA futures late tonight or very early a.m. tomorrow before you go to bed.Tomorrow last day you can buy before that almighty dividend.
Up or down?
Come on now, everyone thinks will be up.
So must go down, right?
Your original thesis that TSLA could stay down for years like AMZN is reasoning by analogy, not first principles. The first principles of TSLA are that Tesla is a historic company with unprecedented advantages and market opportunities. Yes, I believe "this time it's different," because Tesla is different. There has never been a company like them. Things change, with enough human intelligence and determination. Rockets land on barges now.
Today we saw about 10M volume by the time it'd slowed down significantly at halftime. As soon as it crashed, volume spiked up again and we ended with 23M for the day. Tells me that it was a massive buy the dip and momentum will carry on to tomorrow.Tomorrow last day you can buy before that almighty dividend.
Up or down?
Come on now, everyone thinks will be up.
So must go down, right?
Tomorrow last day you can buy before that almighty dividend.
Up or down?
Come on now, everyone thinks will be up.
So must go down, right?
Q2 results and outlook were outstanding, yet TSLA fell $200 over the following 3 weeks until the split was announced.
At these levels, I'm not so sure Battery Day and Q3 deliveries / results will provide much, if any, boost to TSLA.
See, this is why VW's ID3 has a superior architecture. It is impervious to OTA updates. /S
unfortunately, the fix is cumbersome. Thousands of ID3 cars will be parked in dedicated rented spaces until the spring when service teams will be deployed with mobile computer stations.
New software will be manually installed in this manner for the first 10,000 or so ID3s. A total of 20,000 ID3 vehicles will need to be reworked until the second wave of production begins in May. At that time, further software updates can be deployed over-the-air.
Either $2249.98 OR $2299.98 give or take a few penniesTomorrow last day you can buy before that almighty dividend.
Up or down?
Come on now, everyone thinks will be up.
So must go down, right?
You sure he didn't mean for the temperature? Heck my 2003 E320 did that!Which is strange. My best friend paid me a visit. He has a new VW Passat and he told me it had automatic over the air updates.
TSLA did have a long period where the stock was basically flat. I think if Tesla were to stall or growth not be obvious that would be possible/likely but hard to imagine if they keep up this growth.I'm not saying that because it happened to Amazon it will happen to Tesla. I'm saying that a multi-year depression of TSLA's stock price could happen, and pointing out that something pretty similar happened to Amazonunder rath
er similar market perception conditions.
Let me clarify. I don't believe a short-term severe TSLA drop is impossible, just unlikely now for the reasons I stated. If it happens, it will not be a "downside," but a buying opportunity that will make me ecstatic.
However I do believe a years-long severe drop, analogous to AMZN, is extremely unlikely.
Your original thesis that TSLA could stay down for years like AMZN is reasoning by analogy, not first principles. The first principles of TSLA are that Tesla is a historic company with unprecedented advantages and market opportunities. Yes, I believe "this time it's different," because Tesla is different. There has never been a company like them. Things change, with enough human intelligence and determination. Rockets land on barges now.
Today we saw about 10M volume by the time it'd slowed down significantly at halftime. As soon as it crashed, volume spiked up again and we ended with 23M for the day. Tells me that it was a massive buy the dip and momentum will carry on to tomorrow.
Good point, looks like it will be another nice gap up tomorrow. The Upper BB also should be higher as we continue to be in a bullish trend. And then Mayhem on Monday.Remember no trading AH on Friday or pre market on Monday. This weekend is going to suck lol.
I do think there will be some money re shenanigans tomorrow so if anybody is looking to play options for next week you might get a very good opportunity. Just know the key support levels etc. Like @Artful Dodger pointed out earlier, they took it all the way to upper BB and then brought it all the way down to fill the gap. So predictable.
Good point, looks like it will be another nice gap up tomorrow. The Upper BB also should be higher as we continue to be in a bullish trend. And then Mayhem on Monday.Remember no trading AH on Friday or pre market on Monday. This weekend is going to suck lol.
I do think there will be some more shenanigans tomorrow so if anybody is looking to play options for next week you might get a very good opportunity. Just know the key support levels etc. Like @Artful Dodger pointed out earlier, they took it all the way to upper BB and then brought it all the way down to fill the gap. So predictable.
It starts getting harder to breakout growth drivers, but this is great. If it were in Excel or Google docs, you could create bear case scenarios by site or vehicle. I’m not asking or criticizing, just noting the format. I do think there are two other growth engines, with the Semi beginning to scale up and energy likely up over 100% next year. Solar and batteries are both on track for 100% growth and GWh battery sites going up. If we do grow over 100% in 2021, the discounted value of TSLA will only need 30-35% growth to justify the current valuation. Barring COVID 2.0 or some other global disaster, I don’t see growth below 50% on average until 2027.Edit: to be clear, these are what FrankSG is predicting as ultimate production capacity, not next years production.
My take on production next year is this:
Bear case (no increase in production)
Assuming 570k production this year, this is a growth rate of 40%, about the historical average
- 600k Fremont (Includes S&X)
- 200k Shanghai
Edit: most people seem to be predicting between 800k and 900k production next year
Base case
This assumes that production starts ~10 months after construction start, and that production ramp up is similar to MIC model 3.
Assuming 570k production this year, this is a growth rate of 120%
- 600k Fremont (Includes S&X)
- 400k Shanghai (250k Model 3, 150k Model Y)
- 150k Berlin (Model Y)
- 100k Austin (Model Y)
Bull case
Aggressive ramp up in all locations enabled by simpler production (e.g. casting) of Model 3/Y and model S/X refresh
Assuming 570k production this year, this is a growth rate of 200%
- 700k Fremont (Includes S&X) - further efficiencies due to simpler production process, plaid a success
- 500k Shanghai (250k Model 3, 250k Model Y) - still ramping up to 750k per year total production
- 250k Berlin (Model Y)
- 250k Austin (200k Model Y, 50k Cybertruck )
Hyper-Bull case
Aggressive ramp up in all locations enabled by simpler production (e.g. casting) of Model 3/Y and model S/X refresh
Assuming 570k production this year, this is a growth rate of 277%
- 750k Fremont (Includes S&X) - further efficiencies due to simpler production process, plaid a success (second shift)
- 550k Shanghai (300k Model 3, 250k Model Y) - still ramping up to 750k per year total production
- 350k Berlin (Model 3/Y) - phase 2 start soon for second production area (tree clearance September)
- 400k Austin (280k Model Y, 100k Cybertruck, 20k semi ) - multiple production areas built over the next 10 months
- 50k GF6 (ground breaking this year)
- 50k GF7 (ground breaking this year)
Edit: my prediction for next year is the base case, although I see considerable up-side. The hyper-bull case would probably need a major capital raise and perfect execution, so very unlikely.
Another fun video from Steven to get your day started.
That was a great video. So much good info.