Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

It actually feels a bit reassuring that there are still down days for TSLA but that they are unwilling to actually push it hard enough to trigger a circuit breaker. That's way different from how it used to be.

IV is all kinds of nutty though, I was watching the value of these 10/16 800C rising the whole day even though the underlying was down. Too rich for my blood, so I just added a highly speculative 69 shares.

Indeed, I sold 5x 2/10 - 10/2 c4000's just before the split - expecting a pull-back (har har) and they gained 10% yesterday - in total up 3x since I wrote them Don't care if they execute (as documented several times), but preference would be that they don't and the SP is around $3900 at that time

 

[CorneliusXX]

I agree with Dave ... if/when the $5B is exhausted, I can see Tesla repeating for another $5B.

Tesla picks the timing and can sell as much or as little as they want at anytime....if this is done slowly, the short term impact on the market is minimal ... we might not ever see another $5B simply because the original $5B is never exhausted.

GF Austin or more cell production possibly in new countries are my priority...

Additional capex invested wisely in new factories is always a good idea.

For FSD once they get Dojo up and running it is "operation vacation", Dojo will do a lot of the work, while the team sip cocktails by the pool.

Hopefully we will hear where they propose to spend the money. Tesla's cash position has increased by $3bn ($1bn organically) in the last year - and that was while they were building GF3&4. That is a pretty hefty buffer to continue spending more on expansion. Unless we see real need for the additional cash, why give up our ownership.

HyperCharts

 

[FrankSG]

1. (A) might have no idea that his shares have been loaned out, if he has a margin account. In any case, he has no idea who (B) is, so how does he ask?
2. In which case (B) has to come up with the other 4 shares.
3. see (1), but remember that (A) doesn't have the other 4 shares.

The real answer is that it was the broker who did the actual lending, and is on the hook to make (A) whole. Somehow. But (A) does not have the dividend shares, so anything that involves him lending extra shares to (B) whether via the broker or not, doesn't work.

I say again, look at the big picture. Tesla issued about 196M*4 new shares, but at the time they did that, there were about (196+10.5)M shares out there in people's accounts. 10.5M is about the known short interest at the time of recording the split. There is a deficit of about 42M (10.5M * 4) new shares that should have appeared in people's accounts.

Yes, there are brokers in between the actual (A), (B), and (C). I left that part out to simplify the explanation.

It doesn't change what I described though. You just replace (A) with (A)'s broker, (B) with (B)'s broker, and (C) with (C)'s broker.

Yes, the 10.5M shares short interest changed to 42M shares short interest, but the $ value was not changed by the split. Instead of the brokers of shorts owing the brokers of share lenders 10.5M shares @ $2,500 per share, post-split they owe 42M shares @ $500 per share.

So instead of having to repay 10.5M shares, shorts will have to repay 42M shares.

Where do they come from?

They will come from the shorts who originally borrowed the shares, but at the time the stock lending agreement ends, not at the time of the split.

 

[Tslynk67]

Yeah, on the one hand, he basically just bought a $600,000 Model Y. On the other, I will likely have to liquidate a large % of shares to help buy our first home. Financially-wise? Probably not. But if you want the thing more than anything else in the world, it may be worth it. Also, he can monetize his channel a bit with some actual hardware-specific reviews etc. (with an actual car).

That said, I'm also planning on getting a Y, and will simply finance. The interest I pay on my future $ is much less than the gains I'll make by still having some income to invest in the near term.

Will likely be doing the same, selling around 300 $TSLA in the coming 6months to buy a house, then 300 more in the coming year to pay for the renovations.

Yes, I know everyone out there will say "take a loan", but I'm 54, my wife 53, a $1.5m mortgage at our age isn't really something we want - the monthly payments would be astronomical too. I know a lot of you borrow against your equities, but I'm not sure that's much of a thing here in Belgium, and besides, what if we get another C19 crash, or similar and the investments no longer cover the outstanding debt, etc.

Just don't want these stresses TBH. I can accept that long-term I'll be leaving a lot of money on the table, but it's neither like I will have spent it on hookers and coke.

And in any case, I have my trading account, which is rapidly catching-up the value of my core-shares account ad has some nice June 2022 LEAPS that I'm inclined to leave alone until that time, and then exercise to shares. Then I'll be back where I am today, so not such a bad plan.

 

[DeadCham7]

I got the golden ticket!!

 

[MC3OZ]

How could it be priced it when passive index funds are not allowed by buy yet per their own bylaws, but will need to acquire ~45*5 = 240M shares after the announcement comes.

It's more reasonable to specuate IMO that Tesla works out some kind of deal for a special equity offering for the individual funds to avoid a large SP runup, and then Tesla pockets the cash. Kinda like today's $5B offering, but at a much more massive scale. The maginitude is on the order of $500/share * 240 shares = $120B

So Tesla doesn't need that much equity or want that much dilution, but I'd guess they offer up another few 10s of $billions to help the market transition to a new equilibrium SP after TSLA is added to the S&P 500.

Imma HODL'ing.

Cheers!

Amazon to Join S.& P. 500 Index

Amazon Market Cap 2006-2020 | AMZN

When Amazon joined the S&P 500 the share price was lower and the market cap was lower, I assume Amazon achieved 4 profitable quarters..

So what kind of business was Amazon in 2005, compared to Tesla in 2020, and is there a closer parallel?.

Telsa isn't in the S&P 400 or S&P 600, it has large rapidly growing earnings which back the share price to some extent...
The free-float shares for Tesla might be lower than a normal stock being added...

I'm actually wondering how the S&P committee will handle this, I'm not sure they have faced a similar situation in the past..
Some compromise to slowly phase in Tesla over 5 years would not surprise me..... otherwise this $5B may not be the last..

Tesla themselves are capturing some of the value of the spike in share price on inclusion (assuming that happens), good move IMO, and there may be enough spike for everyone...

 

[Tslynk67]

The volume weighted average price (VWAP) is a trading benchmark used by traders that gives the average price a security has traded at throughout the day, based on both volume and price. It is important because it provides traders with insight into both the trend and value of a security

So $TSLA closing price was down, but overall the average trading price per share was up compared to Monday, which would be viewed as bullish and a consolidation move, rather than a panic sell-off.

At least that's my "glass totally full and several more bottles chilling in the fridge" point of view.

 

[Buckminster]

The reason why $TSLA is light years ahead with their OTA updates:

View attachment 583425

VW genius - they have managed to build Herbies in bulk. They are clearly all hooked up to the neural backbone. Dojo competition? #judgementday

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Service complaints and praise don’t belong in this thread (certainly not by first time posters). Take it elsewhere.

Several posts on the subject have been removed.

 

[SPadival]

Anyone have any idea when the next series of $TSLA LEAPS be available for trading?

 

[Buckminster]

So stock offering is up to $5bn - dilution at 1% at todays price. If they sell at a SP of 1000, the dilution is only 0.5%.

Options that Tesla have:

1. Sell all now pre-inclusion
   1. Won't help inclusion
   2. May delay inclusion
   3. High squeeze 9/10
2. Never sell them
   1. Max squeeze 10/10
3. Sell immediately after announcement
   1. Squeeze 8/10
   2. Many will be bought by retail as SP will drop 5% and institutions not ready
4. Sell slowly during inclusion window
   1. Squeeze 7/10
5. Sell towards end of inclusion window
   1. Squeeze 9/10
   2. Minimum dilution at high SP
6. Sell post inclusion
   1. Max squeeze 10/10
7. Sell some pre, during or post inclusion
   1. Squeeze 9/10

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

What happens to the stock price of S&P etf’s like VOO upon TSLA inclusion announcement ?

is it just a wash until they acquire the shares, as they have capital freed up from the sale of whoever has been kicked out and replaced by Tesla? ( and then a commensurate weighted incline as these funds benefit from Tesla’s great innovation and continued positive SP performance ?

or do they drop because of the rising price of TSLA post inclusion requires them to pay more ?

 

[UkNorthampton]

Jack Rickard was a prime example of how truly unique each human being can be. To say that he was one of a kind, is an understatement of vast proportions. I too will miss his videos. He spoke with an articulation that always captivated me. He will never be replaced. Such is the nature and beauty of life. RIP Jack.

I only found Jack a year or two ago. His final video was very moving. But I'd like to mention his conclusion from The Tesla Conspiracy... or Am I a Dead Whistleblower? - EVTV Motor Verks - I'll leave out the last line for various reasons.

"I have no interest in tracking the money or reading the chicken entrails. I already know how this comes out. The irony is double. It looks like the oil companies and automakers have no possibility of losing this one. In reality, they have no way to win it. One man has them totally surrounded, outnumbered, and outgunned.

Elon Musk.

Bite it bitch."

 

[wipster]

Over 490 US in Berlin, nighty night!

 

[Artful Dodger]

From the Tesla Prospectus:

MARKET INFORMATION

Our common stock is traded on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the symbol “TSLA.” We estimate that there were approximately 3,284 holders of record of our common stock as of August 28, 2020.​

I don't think this information is widely known, that the sum of all Tesla Brokers, Market Makers, and Large Investors (ie: Institutional Investors who hold their shares directly as "Shareholder of Record") is about 3,284 in total.

These are the individuals or organizations that are known to, and listed with, Tesla's transfer agent: Computershare Trust Company.

Everybody else is a "Beneficial Owner" in contract law, and their ownership records are maintained (typically) by the Broker through whom they purchased their stock.

That's the scale were talking about for the two classes of ownership of TSLA.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

 

[SPadival]

Here's a theory for the $5B raise. Seems that some Congress critters are worried about Chinese involvement in US space. (see Elon Musk's SpaceX NASA contracts threatened over Tesla China ties) And while SpaceX has zero dealings with China, Elon's other company, Tesla, has a $1.4B line of credit with Chinese state banks. So, this could be a plan A or plan B to either assuage Congress that Tesla can stand on its own without Chinese credit, or to even pay off the loans.

OT: This is pure FUD. SpaceX competitor ULA uses Russian RD-180 rocket engines on their Atlas V rockets. Apparently, they will be replaced by engines produced by "sub-orbital" Blue Origin in 2021! LOL. Also, this -> Boeing buying Russian components for Starliner

With all the Russiagate MccArthyite conspiracy theories for the last 4 years, I would have thought that Russia represented a bigger national security threat than China. Someone *cough* ULA *cough* must have dropped a bag of cash on the congressman's desk

 

[Chenkers]

The footprint of two large Texas gigafactory buildings is becoming evident now with the trademark chamfered corners and a lower roadway/loading area in between. They've also changed to a deeper geopier piling system at the south end, possibly due to different ground conditions or higher loading (eg paint/stamping).

 

[jeewee3000]

I got the golden ticket!!

Congratulations, TMC soldier.

We expect your report of the Battery Day Event by eleven-hundred-hours the next day.

Dismissed.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

The footprint of two large Texas gigafactory buildings is becoming evident now with the trademark chamfered corners and a lower roadway/loading area in between. They've also changed to a deeper geopier piling system at the south end, possibly due to different ground conditions or higher loading (eg paint/stamping).
View attachment 583475

My guess is casting, stamping, moulding, drive, battery, seats on left; body in white, paint shop, general assembly on right; with overhead connections between them. Southern end logistics yard, northern end test track and car loading.