Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[insaneoctane]

Maybe stupid, but I put a LOT of stock into Elon's HODL strategy. As long as he'd rather take a loan against his stock ownership without diversification, it goes a long way towards making me thinking that my investment is TSLA is still smart....

 

[Driver Dave]

View attachment 586690

One FUD article and this guy gets all flustered? Now he knows how Elon feels on a daily basis....this is only the beginning.

I'm just amazed in what this guy has done. When you look at his background... there is nothing. No record of building a company. No school. No accomplishments. Not that there is anything wrong with that... But.. how on earth is this guy raising the sort of money he is raising? I just don't get it.
What am I missing?

 

[Unpilot]

Wow, I'm way behind. No way I'm reading 30 pages to catch up.

Slacker...turn in your TMC badge forthwith!

 

[mltv]

Not if they're trying to look like they're working on some alternatives.
And is there any IP worth fighting for? Didn't Nikola sue Tesla for copying their patented design of the cab? Although I think that fizzled, there could be other legal instruments in the agreement for future GM leverage, but who knows. (Ya it's a stretch, but there has to be something there for GM).

They may have to take the legal route if NKLA shares tank. I thought it was a bad move GM did from the start. It takes away resources and focus. Even if it is just a short seller attack, we all know how damaging that is. A depressed NKLA share price is be a continue headache for GM. It is just a start, but it is not a good one for GM.

 

[AudubonB]

Wow! That's a big "icky list" for a family that coined the term "ick vehicles". The bright side is that you have the first hand experience to understand just how icky they are!

And the Models S & X against which to compare them.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I'm just amazed in what this guy has done. When you look at his background... there is nothing. No record of building a company. No school. No accomplishments. Not that there is anything wrong with that... But.. how on earth is this guy raising the sort of money he is raising? I just don't get it.
What am I missing?

Luck of timing. Period.

The world is filled with overconfident dbags, some of them just hit the lottery.

 

[Vad42]

View attachment 586690

One FUD article and this guy gets all flustered? Now he knows how Elon feels on a daily basis....this is only the beginning.

I almost don't care if any of it is true or not. But I like that TSLAQ crowd now has a new fresh target to focus on...

 

[Boomer19]

View attachment 586690

One FUD article and this guy gets all flustered? Now he knows how Elon feels on a daily basis....this is only the beginning.

welcome to the NFL, rookie

 

[jhm]

Back to $TSLA now Everyone feel better these past 2 days?

 

[lascavarian]

That was in regards to people using two Model S battery modules in series, ~48v, for Powerwall type purposes instead of using the full ~400v pack. I don't think he ever said anything about going higher than 400v.

I just reviewed a portion of his video. He IS referring to his stationary power systems mostly. He is kissing off his use of 48v inverters and going with higher voltage inverters (if I understand it) to charge Model 3 battery packs. He notes that there are fewer thermal issues to consider with the lower amperage configurations.

Time will tell what the better pack voltage is I guess. I thought there were some chemistry advantages but I seem to be unable to confirm that so maybe not.

Thanks for your comments. It was good to watch Jack with the salt shooter again.

 

[mejojo]

So how many "ick engines" does your family own, operate and maintain? Serious question.

Please include any tool or vehicle containing one of these "ick engines".

1974 Mercedes 450 SL
Non-operational 4-cycle weed trimmer

 

[humbaba]

...there has to be something there for GM).

posted reply on the nikola thread All discussion of Nikola Motors

 

[Paul_SF]

OT but also a message for long term investors: "Bright Future!"

 

[CLK350]

I was officially a Teslanaire 1 week ago.
Not so anymore

Suggested nomenclature:

PTSL - pre-Teslanaire: in waiting, working on it ..

Teslanaire - currently has $1M in (paper or realized) in profits from TSLA stock or options appreciation

Teslanaire/OP - On Probation: has been a Teslanaire for at least 5 mins - will be a Teslanaire again provided he HODL

 

[OrthoSurg]

Suggested nomenclature:

PTSL - pre-Teslanaire: in waiting, working on it ..

Teslanaire - currently has $1M in (paper or realized) in profits from TSLA stock or options appreciation

Teslanaire/OP - On Probation: has been a Teslanaire for at least 5 mins - will be a Teslanaire again provided he HODL

In profits of TSLA? Not yet

 

[mikevbf]

Reading a lot of Lucid posts. I personally hope they do well. It IS a niche car. Anything over $100k is a niche vehicle and that's ok. Maybe Lucid builds a lower end car, or becomes a Jaguar type brand. There should be room for a Tesla that wants to change the world and a Lucid that wants to provide some different options in the new world. I think Lucid maybe takes away a few Tesla sales, but more importantly it takes away ICE sales to Jaguar, Maserati and Mercedes more than Tesla. We all say these cars aren't Tesla killers, but the converse isn't that Tesla has to be the all-other EV killer either. If Tesla has to build 100 million cars a year to replace ICE, it isn't going to happen. We need more options to address personal aesthetics and spending options and priorities.
So I say go Lucid and good luck. You'll need it. The road blocks are many and the path to success is narrow. The odds of their success are probably 50% or less and the odds of staying independent, if they do succeed may be even lower.

I think Lucid has a lot bigger ambitions than staying a company that sells 100+k cars. My impressions a day later is Lucid does have some serious engineering chops. What others who have come into the BEV space have lacked is the ability to make truly efficient vehicles both in terms of range and packaging to utilize space well. Even more elusive is having a powertrain that truly competes with what is available now from Tesla in terms of quickness. It's possible they are the player that is actually moving slow to move fast. I was most surprised by their talk of designing for mass manufacturing. Don't get me wrong, there is a huge distance from where they are to getting to where Tesla is, but they are off on the right foot. If they remain a well funded private company for at least 3 more years, I think it is even possible they might position themselves quite well with a lot less pain.

Basically, Lucid is where Tesla was in 2012 when I was so excited about their vehicle smarts and started investing in them. As a 2020 investor, I am still excited about Tesla not only because they have great vehicles, but batteries, software, manufacturing, the ability to be capitol efficient while growing ambitiously, the list goes on. The two companies are not in the same league, but Lucid should be acknowledged for being one of the few if not only companies off on the right foot. As a long term TSLA investor, I am not worried. It's just another package to hold batteries and that is where Tesla is leagues ahead. And honestly, having some competition will make Tesla an even better company.

 

[dl003]

I read the article when it came out. I did the math and, yes, "expected value" calculates to $7,282.50 but it is not a scenario. It's a meaningless number in no man's land (my words) because of the huge dichotomy in outcomes between robotaxis and no robotaxis. One of the Ark folks admitted this.

A counter point: the scenarios here only represent certain milestones on a spectrum that contains an infinite number of possible outcomes. If you look at the big jump from 3400 to 15000.
3400: Lower costs, no Autonomous
15000: No lower costs, Autonomous
This is a huge gap that most likely won't manifest in reality.
Who's to say that Tesla won't end up with Autonomous in America but not Asia or Europe and costs will only go down moderately? We can argue that there will be a scenario not listed here that justifies $7,000 based on these scenarios which are just reference points.

 

[woodisgood]

Suggested nomenclature:

PTSL - pre-Teslanaire: in waiting, working on it ..

Teslanaire - currently has $1M in (paper or realized) in profits from TSLA stock or options appreciation

Teslanaire/OP - On Probation: has been a Teslanaire for at least 5 mins - will be a Teslanaire again provided he HODL

So it’s profits? Can’t just buy 1M of shares and be a Teslanaire?

 

[Dancing Lemur]

If we’re back to trading like old-school TSLA (from 2 weeks ago) as opposed to this modern nonsense of the last week or so, then today’s consolidation while the overall market is uncooperative suggests another nice leg higher toward $440.

Look at the rest of the tech sector today and few of them have held earlier gains, while TSLA is nice and rangebound.

The macros can still provide significant headwinds, but the trading action feels like FOMO Part Deux is starting to heat up.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

If we’re back to trading like old-school TSLA (from 2 weeks ago) as opposed to this modern nonsense of the last week or so, then today’s consolidation while the overall market is uncooperative suggests another nice leg higher toward $440.

Look at the rest of the tech sector today and few of them have held earlier gains, while TSLA is nice and rangebound.

The macros can still provide significant headwinds, but the trading action feels like FOMO Part Deux is starting to heat up.

I think that's about right. Float here $380-440 as more folks pile in on the hopes of a Battery Day or S&P inclusion lottery ticket.

I could see Battery Day being a slight sell the news event regardless of the amazing nature of the announcements. That's just the pattern day traders usually follow.

Loving this backdrop of S&P inclusion, even now with a date even more uncertain. The specter of an any-moment-squeeze must have all these non-longs on their toes!

Edit: I still have ATH as an absolute minimum target for 1 minute post-inclusion. I know it's not as cool of a board sentiment these days, but nothing has changed from my perspective. If someone wanted to pay $531 for a share a few weeks ago, they'll certainly have to start there once inclusion is under way.