Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[avoigt]

In Rob Maurer's September 10 podcast there's a screenshot about a meeting with Elon and the Brandenburg Minister of Economics. It says: "In a conversation with Tesla boss Elon Musk last week, he once again reminded of German co-determination and collective agreements. That was certainly not received with euphoria."

I thought a company in Germany could choose to organize under EU law rather than German law and avoid these co-determination requirements. I don't know if Tesla created a German subsidiary or if the US company itself owns and operates the plant. Does someone have insight on why Tesla is stuck with the German requirements?

The law about employment rights does not work like that. It does not matter if you have a company under German or EU legal entity but needs to comply with local regulations if you operate in Germany. Tesla already did a good job with Tesla Grohman in Germany before and I don't see any reason why it should be in Brandenburg different.

The media always intends to construct an issue with German employee laws and US firms but as a matter of fact companies all over the world have successfully established manufacturing in Germany therefore this is a made-up story.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

TSac on CNBC trying to walk it down and draw comparisons to the tech bubble. Lol!

Keeps talking about how many cars need to be built 5 years from now. Cars?!??!?

I'd like to see someone ask these guys if they think TSLA is a $1T market cap in 2025 given the direction of their products, brand, and pace of innovation. At this point, you'd have to be nuts to bet on a sub-$1T 2025 valuation.

 

[dw4ngg]

TSac on CNBC trying to walk it down and draw comparisons to the tech bubble. Lol!

Keeps talking about how many cars need to be built 5 years from now. Cars?!??!?

I'd like to see someone ask these guys if they think TSLA is a $1T market cap in 2025 given the direction of their products, brand, and pace of innovation. At this point, you'd have to be nuts to bet on a sub-$1T 2025 valuation.

It’s amazing how much impact CNBS has on immediate mkt mvmts when they talk..

 

[gabeincal]

View attachment 587028

Ah yeah, Nissan! They still exist, huh?

 

[YAWD]

I don't see the million mile battery as increasing the time period of the upgrade cycle for most new vehicle purchasers. Many new car buyers will still replace their car on a similar schedule. Because Tesla's hold their resale value better than ICE cars, the upgrade cycle will not become more expensive and the million mile battery will make this more pronounced. What will likely happen is some people who would have become new car buyers at a certain point in their life will continue to buy used cars (specifically, relatively low mileage "like new" Tesla's) and people who tend to buy new cars every 1-3 years will continue doing that.

I have my doubts about this idea. People changed cars every 2-3 years because car companies offered them something new (some tech upgrade, interior upgrade etc.) Car companies haven't done any serious innovation in decades and this incremental upgrades kept the zombie product lines from traditional car companies alive. I seriously believe this phenomenon of changing car every 3 years is a part of baby boomer culture. Once you sit in a Tesla and experience the minimalist design and super car experience, I don't expect people especially millennials to change car very often atleast not as much as the baby boomer generation.

It really is like the iPhone phenomenon where people with iPhone changed to higher spec iPhone and when latest generation iPhone offered little value in terms of upgrade, people are just sticking with their old iPhone and not changing them very often now.

I think car buying is also going under a huge cultural shift where people will hold on to their Tesla's longer because there is no or little reason to upgrade with long last battery and powertrain.

 

[oldTAVguy]

So why are analysts hung up on the million mile battery? It could "could profoundly change the auto business model," they say.

I don't see it.

If there are Robotaxis working 12 hour days, sure, a million mile battery makes a difference. Someday, I guess. But in the mean time...

This talk of someone buying a car and then keeping the battery to install in their next car -- that's just nuts. The battery is not THAT big a fraction of the price of the car, and by the time you get a new car, likely there will be better batteries available than what you had in the old one. Not to mention the battery probably won't be physically compatible with your next model (form factor, specific wiring and cooling connections and BMS and all). Would it make sense to keep your smartphone battery to install in the next one?

It could keep a used car functional for longer, but with so much tech in a car, who wants a 20 year old model? Do you want a 20 year old smartphone with great battery life? I don't think so.

I can see enabling V2G with many more lifetime cycles available. Except this requires house-side infrastructure too, and not just a Tesla-branded charging unit, but a way to switch off the grid-to-house connection -- so a major electrical installation. I would love to be able to use my car battery as whole-house backup, but this seems like a pretty long-term play to get any significant uptake.

I can see taking the battery out of an end-of-life car and moving it to stationary storage to live out the remainder of it's "million miles." But what is this worth, a couple thousand per car, and only once a substantial number of Teslas start reaching end-of-life? Another long-term play.

A million mile battery would be a nice indicator that Tesla still has a R&D edge, I guess.

But at Battery Day, I'm WAY more excited to hear about how they're going to scale battery production. Why do the analysts seem oblivious to this?

The "million mile battery" is not really for driving, but to allow Tesla to have the cars connect to the grid and still have the car work for the a good expected lifetime.

 

[Dancing Lemur]

Pffft. That's nothing. Take a look at the number of $1 puts for 01/15/2021.

I believe these have to do with creating a put spread or other derivative construct to alter the margin requirement compared to the same trade without the throwaway put. But I could be completely wrong — does anyone know specifically why these have open interest?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Here is this morning's Tech chart:

Note that Max Pain for today's Options expiries is $382.00

Cheers!

 

[Destination]

I have my doubts about this idea. People changed cars every 2-3 years because car companies offered them something new (some tech upgrade, interior upgrade etc.) Car companies haven't done any serious innovation in decades and this incremental upgrades kept the zombie product lines from traditional car companies alive. I seriously believe this phenomenon of changing car every 3 years is a part of baby boomer culture. Once you sit in a Tesla and experience the minimalist design and super car experience, I don't expect people especially millennials to change car very often atleast not as much as the baby boomer generation.

It really is like the iPhone phenomenon where people with iPhone changed to higher spec iPhone and when latest generation iPhone offered little value in terms of upgrade, people are just sticking with their old iPhone and not changing them very often now.

I think car buying is also going under a huge cultural shift where people will hold on to their Tesla's longer because there is no or little reason to upgrade with long last battery and powertrain.

I feel the exact opposite. I could present specific facts/make a giant argument, but no sense in some monstrous reply.

Smartphones replacement cycle in the US 2014-2023 | Statista

I believe Tesla is encouraging people who traditionally have held onto vehicles to upgrade faster, and this will accelerate similarly to how it has accelerated in smart phones as the technologies evolved.

One way to think about this is that emerging technology will have a ton of low hanging fruit where improvements are easier and more profound to the product. This will continue for years. As the technology matures, improvement is more challenging and yields reduced impact.

In Apple’s case, they’re simply addressing more of the market - and while the turnover rate for segments of the market may increase or decrease relative to the average, the overall trend is simply following the returns on rate of improvement. While the iPhone X user may not see giant technological gains to justify the iPhone 11 Pro, the users upgrading to the iPhone SE are likely seeing dramatic increases in functionality.

Applying this concept to Tesla - they’re in the earlier days still. The rate of improvement is dramatic. And I believe it will continue to be dramatic for at least 5 more years. I think the turnover rate of Tesla vehicles will grow during that time.

 

[mikevbf]

The "million mile battery" is not really for driving, but to allow Tesla to have the cars connect to the grid and still have the car work for the a good expected lifetime.

It would also allow Tesla to push charge times faster, use more of the capacity of the battery, and spend less on thermal management. But I agree, I much more want to see Tesla's road map to dramatically increasing battery capacity over the years. Secondly, I want to see how they are driving cost down, increasings energy density and safety and lastly the million mile battery. If robo taxi's become a reality, the premium for the already existing million mile batteries will be inconsequential and ramped up quickly. The one moonshot exciting possibility of an emphasis on a million mile battery is if they simultaneously announced they were starting a human driven ride hailing network in preparation for robo taxi's.

 

[Big Time]

If only the garbage S&P and Dow could hold their territory.

 

[JRP3]

900+v system allows them to pump power into the battery pack over twice as fast

Higher system voltage does not increase the charge acceptance rate at the cell level so it can only speed up charging if the wiring and connections are the limiting factor, which is not usually the case.

 

[YAWD]

One way to think about this is that emerging technology will have a ton of low hanging fruit where improvements are easier and more profound to the product. This will continue for years. As the technology matures, improvement is more challenging and yields reduced impact.
.

You are right Tesla is early in their technological curve. So what possibly could a new Tesla 3 years down the line offer me:

1. Faster acceleration ( I already have plenty)
2. More range. Sure that's nice but I have 300 miles already. Maybe I can upgrade my second car to a Tesla
3. Better interiors. Nice but it still convinces me to upgrade my 2nd car to Tesla not replace my current Tesla because design philosophy is still going to be minimalist.
4. Lower price

My point is Tesla is already riding on innovation that has already happened in the smartphone industry in terms of electronics. Most of the innovation is going to come from software and this is where the story gets interesting.

Current S/X owners will probably still upgrade to Plaid but you have to ask yourself for a general population how much range do they really need and how much acceleration is fast enough.

 

[ZeApelido]

You will be surprised to know that TSLAQ thinks China export news means weakening demand.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Note that Max Pain for today's Options expiries is $382.00

Cheers!

Well here we sit in an MMD @ $366 when we know MM want to land at $382. What to do?

 

[lascavarian]

If there are Robotaxis working 12 hour days, sure, a million mile battery makes a difference. Someday, I guess. But in the mean time...

My opinion would be that I wonder how long Tesla will sell to retail customers once the million mile battery is a reality. The million mile battery is immensely important. The vehicle is already (with some very simple maintence) a million mile vehicle ... except for the battery.

Our vehicles sit idle far too much each day. It is an excess that is an enormous drain on our collective resources. Once a vehicle can be productive for decades and operate nearly round the clock with minimal maintenance, then the utility of the vehicle changes to favor a model where mobility is a service. This is a hard future to imagine but it is coming IMO.

Other than the battery, there is the software (and the hardware that supports it). Tesla dominating the battery industry and dominating the SW/autonomous future is a powerful case for success IMO.

 

[dww12]

I have my doubts about this idea. People changed cars every 2-3 years because car companies offered them something new (some tech upgrade, interior upgrade etc.) Car companies haven't done any serious innovation in decades and this incremental upgrades kept the zombie product lines from traditional car companies alive. I seriously believe this phenomenon of changing car every 3 years is a part of baby boomer culture. Once you sit in a Tesla and experience the minimalist design and super car experience, I don't expect people especially millennials to change car very often atleast not as much as the baby boomer generation.

It really is like the iPhone phenomenon where people with iPhone changed to higher spec iPhone and when latest generation iPhone offered little value in terms of upgrade, people are just sticking with their old iPhone and not changing them very often now.

I think car buying is also going under a huge cultural shift where people will hold on to their Tesla's longer because there is no or little reason to upgrade with long last battery and powertrain.

A 69 Camero is cool, you would probably prefer to drive one than the 2020 version. A 1990 cell phone is not cool, neither is 2018 cell phone. If there is anything 50 years old you would prefer to use than the current version then there has been no innovation. May can’t come soon enough. Last gas car I use will be gone (2001 Sequoia) as well as my 72’ Z I thought I would restore one day.

 

[thx1139]

I have my doubts about this idea. People changed cars every 2-3 years because car companies offered them something new (some tech upgrade, interior upgrade etc.) Car companies haven't done any serious innovation in decades and this incremental upgrades kept the zombie product lines from traditional car companies alive. I seriously believe this phenomenon of changing car every 3 years is a part of baby boomer culture. Once you sit in a Tesla and experience the minimalist design and super car experience, I don't expect people especially millennials to change car very often atleast not as much as the baby boomer generation.

It really is like the iPhone phenomenon where people with iPhone changed to higher spec iPhone and when latest generation iPhone offered little value in terms of upgrade, people are just sticking with their old iPhone and not changing them very often now.

I think car buying is also going under a huge cultural shift where people will hold on to their Tesla's longer because there is no or little reason to upgrade with long last battery and powertrain.

I really never changed every 2-3 years for tech. I really would change because onset of mechanical failures. I dont feel that need with our electric cars.

Our 2012 Volt was 6 years old when my son totalled it. Only maintenance it ever had was 1 oil change.
Our 2014 Volt is 6 years old. Only maintenance it has ever had was 2 oil changes.
Our 2015 Model S has had no maintenance other then new tires. It did need the MCU replaced in April
Our 2018 Model 3 has had no maintenance.

 

[Drax7]

this is genius, nothing can stop Tesla now , fair warning

 

[Bet TSLA]

But at Battery Day, I'm WAY more excited to hear about how they're going to scale battery production. Why do the analysts seem oblivious to this?

Because analysts generally pay no attention to the realities of the supply chain. They just assume that materials and parts will magically appear as needed. Any more accurate approach is too much work. And, in most cases, the reality is that the magic works.

It's pretty clear from years of EV "analysis" that batteries are just parts that are subject to magic.