Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Papafox]

Seriously? @Papafox explicitly views the world (at least for posting purposes on this site) as a battle between good and evil (longs and shorts in case it isn't obvious). Using any of his posts as evidence that TSLA gyrations are actually a battle between good and evil is disturbingly self-referential.

And no, a cascade of stop losses is not unknown and doesn't require an evil overlord to set in motion. And talking about a day where TSLA was up 13.7% as downward manipulation is kinda funny.

@Papafox views TSLA trading as a battle between good and evil? First I've heard of it.

In the past I've put a lot of energy into the long vs. short tug-of-war primarily because it helped me to better predict what was coming next. Undoubtedly I've called some price movements as manipulations when they were something else, but the approach I've taken in the past has nonetheless been extremely profitable for me and I hope for others as well.

What I do may look like voodoo to you, but it is a constantly evolving approach that helps me to identify local tops and local bottoms.

For example, on Aug. 31 when TSLA closed at 498 right before the big downhill bobsled run began, I said in this post, "Today's upsurge brings the focus upon short term trading vs long term trading of TSLA. Short term, TSLA is approaching price targets of some (but not all) of the most bullish analysts, and so one might assume that some profit-taking is not far away." I think some readers with short-term trading horizons may have taken this observation to heart. I then went on to explain why this possible local high should not be a problem for investors with long time horizons.

On Sunday evening I posted , "So, looking at TSLA's propensity right now to trade higher than the NASDAQ, the approach of Battery Day, the tendency of the NASDAQ to trade higher on Mondays recently, and futures showing up for the NASDAQ on Sunday evening, I'm looking forward to Monday's TSLA trading." That was the start of our nice two-day run. With a fairly deep Mandatory Morning Dip on Monday morning, there was a great opportunity to trade on the belief that Monday would be a positive TSLA trading day.

On Tuesday evening, I saw the rally bringing TSLA back to a price point where the short-term upward and downward pressures would be fairly even, and I said, "My expectations are that we seldom see 6 or more positive days in a row (today is day 5), so I think TSLA will likely glide a bit with the macros and simmer down a bit." That's just what happened with Wednesday's TSLA trading, the stock drifted up and down with the NASDAQ, overall.

My point is that when percentage of TSLA shares held by shorts was high and we saw extremely elevated FUD, I suggested that manipulations were a significant factor in TSLA price behavior. Now that the shorts (and the FUD) are somewhat tamed, you'll notice that none of the predictions I quoted from the past week were related to manipulations. I think out loud as a seasoned TSLA investor and I think my internal thought process can be of value to other TSLA investors, particularly some who are fairly new to trading this stock. Apparent manipulations do happen, and when they do, I'm not shy about pointing them out. I think if you look at my methodology you'll realize it certainly isn't based upon some concept of good vs. evil, however.

 

[Intl Professor]

Ground breaking!

Here's another mathematical oddity which my limited keyboard cannot demonstrate: did you know that the integral of e to the x equals the function of u to the n?

How to explain: I have a 14 year old brain imprisoned in an 84 year old body. My friends already know that.

 

[ggr]

@Papafox views TSLA trading as a battle between good and evil? First I've heard of it.

In the past I've put a lot of energy into the long vs. short tug-of-war primarily because it helped me to better predict what was coming next. Undoubtedly I've called some price movements as manipulations when they were something else, but the approach I've taken in the past has nonetheless been extremely profitable for me and I hope for others as well.

What I do may look like voodoo to you, but it is a constantly evolving approach that helps me to identify local tops and local bottoms.

For example, on Aug. 31 when TSLA closed at 498 right before the big downhill bobsled run began, I said in this post, "Today's upsurge brings the focus upon short term trading vs long term trading of TSLA. Short term, TSLA is approaching price targets of some (but not all) of the most bullish analysts, and so one might assume that some profit-taking is not far away." I think some readers with short-term trading horizons may have taken this observation to heart. I then went on to explain why this possible local high should not be a problem for investors with long time horizons.

On Sunday evening I posted , "So, looking at TSLA's propensity right now to trade higher than the NASDAQ, the approach of Battery Day, the tendency of the NASDAQ to trade higher on Mondays recently, and futures showing up for the NASDAQ on Sunday evening, I'm looking forward to Monday's TSLA trading." That was the start of our nice two-day run. With a fairly deep Mandatory Morning Dip on Monday morning, there was a great opportunity to trade on the belief that Monday would be a positive TSLA trading day.

On Tuesday evening, I saw the rally bringing TSLA back to a price point where the short-term upward and downward pressures would be fairly even, and I said, "My expectations are that we seldom see 6 or more positive days in a row (today is day 5), so I think TSLA will likely glide a bit with the macros and simmer down a bit." That's just what happened with Wednesday's TSLA trading, the stock drifted up and down with the NASDAQ, overall.

My point is that when percentage of TSLA shares held by shorts was high and we saw extremely elevated FUD, I suggested that manipulations were a significant factor in TSLA price behavior. Now that the shorts (and the FUD) are somewhat tamed, you'll notice that none of the predictions I quoted from the past week were related to manipulations. I think out loud as a seasoned TSLA investor and I think my internal thought process can be of value to other TSLA investors, particularly some who are fairly new to trading this stock. Apparent manipulations do happen, and when they do, I'm not shy about pointing them out. I think if you look at my methodology you'll realize it certainly isn't based upon some concept of good vs. evil, however.

This makes me want to give multiple ratings; love, like, informative...

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I haven't looked I into this enough to have an opinion of this particular trust, but I fail to see the difference between using one type of government deduction vs another. Why not tell people to avoid long term gains and always pay short term gains?

Why not skip depreciation allowances, charity deductions, or mortgage interest deductions? Who decides which deduction is ok and which one is [not]?

If I'm not allowed to use the deductions that are available because someone else thinks it's immoral, which ones am I morally allowed to use? And most importantly, why are they the ones to decide what's right or wrong for me, especially when they can't read my mind on what I plan to do?

I'm sure there will be downvotes, but if you do at least explain why. Because I really want to know.

You can't see why it would be considered immoral in a capitalist society to shift large amounts of capital gains to a charitable trust with no intention to do anything except handing it back to yourself?

Maybe the "poor" can get an education, or job training, or SOMETHING to help improve their situation, versus expecting someone else to pay MORE, for them.

I'm always amazed at people like you. Reminds me of a Thomas Sowell quote.

"I have never understood why it is “greed” to want to keep the money you have earned but not greed to want to take somebody else's money."

Awaiting the moderation of this vulgarity.

 

[jschwefel]

There is this guy on Twitter offering $10k for a non profit of your choice, if you have beat his results for the year. I suppose a few may qualify!

https://twitter.com/ChrisCamillo/status/1306124040831143938?s=19

View attachment 589014

Well, I’m not a trader, and I’m not working with that amount of money, but my account it up +400% year-to-date because of TSLA. If my math is right, it looks like he’s up about 300%. Still pretty good though.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

The limited coverage of battery day today is really making me question any plan to sell-at-the-top to rebuy after a long downturn. It's just too dangerous.

My original thought was I'd have to sell at $1850(pre-split), and yet here we are. If we start to approach $500B, you'd have to be nuts not to sell at least a decent chunk. Then again.....the potential of the Energy side is literally boundless, and Elon's pace should only pick up over the next two years.

Playing dead for the next 5 years is so clearly the only path, but I really really really really would love to have 40% more shares. Perhaps some kind of daily HODLers Anonymous meeting would help? Or can someone build a fake Fidelity interface where I can pretend to sell high?

 

[Jack6591]

@Papafox Your body of work, speaks for itself. A sterling example of methodical, well-reasoned analysis. Well done sir.

 

[Bet TSLA]

There is this guy on Twitter offering $10k for a non profit of your choice, if you have beat his results for the year. I suppose a few may qualify!

https://twitter.com/ChrisCamillo/status/1306124040831143938?s=19

View attachment 589014

Well, on August 31 I would have qualified. Way ahead on percentage (up ~940% at the end of August). But his account shot up in September, and as we know it hasn't been a great month for TSLA so far. As always, it's better to be lucky than good.

 

[mrmage]

You can't see why it would be considered immoral in a capitalist society to shift large amounts of capital gains to a charitable trust with no intention to do anything except handing it back to yourself?

You said that, no one else did.

 

[Bet TSLA]

@Papafox views TSLA trading as a battle between good and evil? First I've heard of it.

In the past I've put a lot of energy into the long vs. short tug-of-war primarily because it helped me to better predict what was coming next. Undoubtedly I've called some price movements as manipulations when they were something else, but the approach I've taken in the past has nonetheless been extremely profitable for me and I hope for others as well.

What I do may look like voodoo to you, but it is a constantly evolving approach that helps me to identify local tops and local bottoms.

For example, on Aug. 31 when TSLA closed at 498 right before the big downhill bobsled run began, I said in this post, "Today's upsurge brings the focus upon short term trading vs long term trading of TSLA. Short term, TSLA is approaching price targets of some (but not all) of the most bullish analysts, and so one might assume that some profit-taking is not far away." I think some readers with short-term trading horizons may have taken this observation to heart. I then went on to explain why this possible local high should not be a problem for investors with long time horizons.

On Sunday evening I posted , "So, looking at TSLA's propensity right now to trade higher than the NASDAQ, the approach of Battery Day, the tendency of the NASDAQ to trade higher on Mondays recently, and futures showing up for the NASDAQ on Sunday evening, I'm looking forward to Monday's TSLA trading." That was the start of our nice two-day run. With a fairly deep Mandatory Morning Dip on Monday morning, there was a great opportunity to trade on the belief that Monday would be a positive TSLA trading day.

On Tuesday evening, I saw the rally bringing TSLA back to a price point where the short-term upward and downward pressures would be fairly even, and I said, "My expectations are that we seldom see 6 or more positive days in a row (today is day 5), so I think TSLA will likely glide a bit with the macros and simmer down a bit." That's just what happened with Wednesday's TSLA trading, the stock drifted up and down with the NASDAQ, overall.

My point is that when percentage of TSLA shares held by shorts was high and we saw extremely elevated FUD, I suggested that manipulations were a significant factor in TSLA price behavior. Now that the shorts (and the FUD) are somewhat tamed, you'll notice that none of the predictions I quoted from the past week were related to manipulations. I think out loud as a seasoned TSLA investor and I think my internal thought process can be of value to other TSLA investors, particularly some who are fairly new to trading this stock. Apparent manipulations do happen, and when they do, I'm not shy about pointing them out. I think if you look at my methodology you'll realize it certainly isn't based upon some concept of good vs. evil, however.

I said explicitly because you have said on your thread that you see the action as a battle between longs and shorts. I suppose I stretched that in calling it good vs. evil, but that's certainly the flavor I get. And I have no argument with your bits of TA based prediction, for people that like that sort of thing. To me, I'm afraid, it always sounds like ambiguous gibberish so I rarely read it. But it's all good for what it is. Mostly, when I've looked, you characterize the action of the day and don't try to predict tomorrow, which is reasonable.

Have you ever tried identifying all the things you might characterize as predictions and checked to see if they turned out right, wrong, or ambiguous? That might be a revealing exercise. Short-term predictions, as we all can testify, are notoriously difficult.

 

[StealthP3D]

My math shows that while the cell energy density might be better, packing efficiency is worse. My calculations show the void between cylindrical cells increases by the square of the radius. So, the larger cells don't pack as well. I'm sure I made a mistake somewhere, but here's my chicken scratch (sorry on phone!)
View attachment 589003
Still is likely a net increase, only some gives back to worse packing density

I believe packing density actually increases because the 2170 cells require liquid cooling tubes to snake between the cells while a larger tabless battery could be more effectively cooled with a cold plate above and below the cells (allowing the cells to be placed packed tightly together).

That said, I'm not sure small improvements in packing density are very important in terms of making a better or cheaper EV. If it was important, the best design would be the large cells that were infilled with small cells, all cooled with thermal plates above and below the cells.

 

[Mo City]

Futures have turned very negative.

Now even worse.

Could be a rough opening coming up in a few hours.

 

[Bet TSLA]

In response to Tesla Battery Day — Has Elon Musk Already "Leaked" The Battery Tech That Will Give Scale To The EV Revolution?
Elon tweeted: "No, but you make some great points. Important to note that iron’s cost advantage is partly offset by increased pack mass, so the fully considered cost is closer to nickel. That said, iron alleviates much of the scaling problem."

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1306452601299501057

 

[Dreadnought]

TSLA dropped 5% on privacy concerns: Verstößt Tesla systematisch gegen Datenschutzregeln?
Couldn't resist - bought the dip. Not advice.

 

[mrmage]

You can't see why it would be considered immoral in a capitalist society to shift large amounts of capital gains to a charitable trust with no intention to do anything except handing it back to yourself?

I couldn't edit my other response, and realized I didn't answer your question.

- I don't think using any particular tax rule makes someone immoral.
- I don't presume to know someone's intentions based on the tax rules they use
- I consider some tax rules to be unwise or unfair, and will vote to change them.
- I believe too many people nowadays presume to know other's intentions or attitudes without nearly enough information.

 

[wipster]

Germany SP is sucking big time, so I'm just going to go to bed and hope to wake to better things in the morning.

Night all!

 

[Green Pete]

I couldn't edit my other response, and realized I didn't answer your question.

- I don't think using any particular tax rule makes someone immoral.
- I don't presume to know someone's intentions based on the tax rules they use
- I consider some tax rules to be unwise or unfair, and will vote to change them.
- I believe too many people nowadays presume to know other's intentions or attitudes without nearly enough information.

I wanted to point out the difference between morals and ethics before to the first post. But I think both of you should stop.

 

[elliott82]

TSLA dropped 5% on privacy concerns: Verstößt Tesla systematisch gegen Datenschutzregeln?
Couldn't resist - bought the dip. Not advice.

Weird, the article says the following (Google translate):

Indeed, Tesla officially states that it intends to use the data to "increase the effectiveness of our advertising campaigns and the operation and expansion of our business".

I can't imagine that coming from Tesla directly.

 

[Green Pete]

Weird, the article says the following (Google translate):

Indeed, Tesla officially states that it intends to use the data to "increase the effectiveness of our advertising campaigns and the operation and expansion of our business".

I can't imagine that coming from Tesla directly.

How do you increase effectiveness of something that doesn't exist

 

[replicant]

How do you increase effectiveness of something that doesn't exist

Infinitely