Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[bkp_duke]

Btw, no need to upgrade the V3 (or V4) Supercharger to achieve this, improvements in the car battery alone might do the trick (something we might learn more about quite soon).

Car and Driver article seems to infer that in order to get more range than 160 miles during a time period of 15 minutes the peak charging rate of 250 kW should be surpassed. Now, I'm not saying the peak rate above 250 kW wouldn't happen (of course it will), but charging even at a sustained rate of 240 kW for 15 minutes would yield 60 kWh into the Model S battery. The current Raven Model S has a range of 400 miles per 100 kWh - or 240 miles per 60 kWh.

So, IF the next Model S with the new Tesla made batteries will be able to receive 240 kW for 15 minutes straight the 160 miles per 15 minutes will be beaten with a number of 240 miles per 15 minutes. Without increasing the peak charging rate. Theoretically, of course.

Exactly, if the "taper curve" is less just because the new batteries can accept higher charge rates for longer, this is a substantial improvement in the supercharging experience.

 

[printf42]

Weekend OT:
Not sure whether they would open for share holders questions next week, but by any chance could someone ask them to send the Cybertruck for a cross-country tour? Maybe one week per metropolitan area, place it in the most popular showroom so people can look at it closely.

 

[mongo]

Exactly, if the "taper curve" is less just because the new batteries can accept higher charge rates for longer, this is a substantial improvement in the supercharging experience.

Given the reduction in internal cell current path variations which induces voltage variations which are a limiting factor regarding charge rate at higher SOCs (you don't want to over voltage any portion of the cell), it sure seems like it could help.

 

[Knightshade]

Unless Nikola completely collapses, then GM's agreement is worthless.

Ok...and then they've lost... still nothing.

And they only lose that much (nothing) if Nikola collapses pretty near immediately.

That's why the contract is so nuts. No legit business would've given away that much to GM.

If Nikola lasts at least 1 more year GM gets to liquidate 1/3rd of the stock for cash (even if they've done nothing for it) and another 1/3rd the next 2 years.

If Nikola actually asks GM to do anything, they have to pay GM on a cost plus basis to do it. Plus give GM any emissions credits for any vehicles they DO build, and a slew of other ridiculous in-GMs-favor terms.

Outside of the press stuff it's 100% win for GM no matter how it turns out.


(also this should prob. go to the Nikola thread)

 

[ABCTG]

So battery day>
What moves the SP skyward...
Securing unlimited batteries.
Sure 5% cost or density or longevity is expected....
But the one thing that Bean counters can see with their own beady little eyes right now is the constraint of battery production limitations in producing vehicles. If Tesla can articulate a concrete way to an unlimited supply of batteries then the stock will go to $600 in 18 hours (the following morning).
The new chemistry (density, charging rates, enviro-friendly, responsibly mined), the tabless ends, even the lowered cost. None of those are as concrete and real to the industry as Battery constraints. All the other areas on battery day are not stopping cars and stationary systems from being produced.
(This also adds some support that Piedmont Lithium's SP is going to explode when Battery day happens...or they make a statement about the company before allowing trading to continue. BTW my thinking has me believing Piedmont shut down trading because they identified a leak from within that caused the buying to increase, and they figured the best way to stop an SEC investigation was to stop trading, and allow them to give everyone all the news before trading could start. I do not see another reason.)

Totally this;

No more battery constraint is the key.

It is the building of the bridge across the canyon.

Where in the world can Tesla go and order the batteries they need off the shelf?
Nowhere.

So, like many other parts Tesla has required before, nobody makes them, so they have to make them themselves.

 

[Dangerous Fish]

I'm curious to read more about the collaboration - do you have any articles or example sites of mixed charger providers?

Thurrock application: Simple Search

16 Tesla and 10 Ecotricity

 

[hobbes]

Hello,
What are your best source of data for EV worldwide sales ?
Thanks !

EV Sales

 

[Chunky Jr.]

For the legacy OEMs, I think it will be fairly easy for them to build EVs. Making compelling EVs is the hard part. Competing with Tesla on cost, range, performance, and software will be daunting.

 

[Sofie]

If anyone was afraid the overall sentiment towards Tesla is too positive, read the comment section:

Tesla Energy to become $200B revenue business, Piper analyst predicts (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

We are back in "good 'ole SA" bear territory"..

I have been thinking of my stock-exit strategy (Doing the menitoned "the wheel" beginning with selling calls at $2000, pocketing the premiums) to secure an early retirement..

..but after reading all these comments I think this is way premature, people still don't get Tesla. I feel a HUGE surprise coming for a lot of people regarding Teslas future, which is brighter than bright imho.

I agree with you!
Lately though, I’m feeling rather nervous, I suppose, regarding the elections and all the changes that I see coming to the economy and the entire world. This is despite my acknowledgment that I don’t need the money I have invested right now, and I do have time on my side to wait it out. But what if this election, crash, bear market (whatever we call it), is different? I have never seen or heard of so much unrest and so much political/economic/social change coming to a global scale as I’m seeing now. And that, is what makes me question my HODL strategy today. hmmm...I’m still evaluating what I should do.

 

[BrownOuttaSpec]

Anyone else hear of "Highway Autopilot"?

That AP1 in older cars (Pre-Facelift).

Unfortunately I didn't get some dry powder until yesterday so I missed the Thursday dip... did we have a good guess/hunch if buying Monday or after battery day was the better option?

 

[wipster]

Perhaps straying a bit OT, but this is what I received when buying a new inventory Model S last year with "Autopilot".
View attachment 589885
Anyone else hear of "Highway Autopilot"?

I've heard of this:

 

[Cosmacelf]

I agree with you!
Lately though, I’m feeling rather nervous, I suppose, regarding the elections and all the changes that I see coming to the economy and the entire world. This is despite my acknowledgment that I don’t need the money I have invested right now, and I do have time on my side to wait it out. But what if this election, crash, bear market (whatever we call it), is different? I have never seen or heard of so much unrest and so much political/economic/social change coming to a global scale as I’m seeing now. And that, is what makes me question my HODL strategy today. hmmm...I’m still evaluating what I should do.

Yes, you and everyone else! The IPO market is flashing warning signs. Popular IPOs like Snowflake can’t get priced high enough. They went out at, what, $125, and still doubled price by the first day. I don’t think we are quite at the height of the year 2000, March dot com high and subsequent bust since these IPOs, while expensive, do have paths to make money. NKLA is worrying, but that can discounted as just a brazen fraud rather than investors who will pile into anything. Once we see IPOs for tech or SaaS companies that have no hope, then it’ll be time to fold our cards.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

I agree with you!
Lately though, I’m feeling rather nervous, I suppose, regarding the elections and all the changes that I see coming to the economy and the entire world. This is despite my acknowledgment that I don’t need the money I have invested right now, and I do have time on my side to wait it out. But what if this election, crash, bear market (whatever we call it), is different? I have never seen or heard of so much unrest and so much political/economic/social change coming to a global scale as I’m seeing now. And that, is what makes me question my HODL strategy today. hmmm...I’m still evaluating what I should do.

Judging by your posts over the last few months I’m wondering whether investing is the right thing for you. Especially in TSLA. It feels like you’re carrying a huge weight on your shoulders. Investing should improve your life, not give you constant anxiety.

 

[wipster]

For the legacy OEMs, I think it will be fairly easy for them to build EVs. Making compelling EVs is the hard part. Competing with Tesla on cost, range, performance, and software will be daunting.

And, most importantly, batteries. All of the potential competition I've seen (short-term at least) is constrained by the quantity of BEV's they can make by the batteries available for their vehicle(s). That is perhaps the biggest moat for Tesla's competition to cross for the next 5 year period at a minimum.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I’ve found with overbearing project management no decisions are made, just countless boxes checked. Then after overthinking every detail, a rash decision is made as time is running out. A company like GM will want every detail of a 5 year plan nailed down. An agile company and an agile boss will figure out what has to be done to get started and focus on the most important issues and solve the details as they move forward. The GM Nikola deal seems exactly what a decision paralyzed company would do after years of marginal progress.

Which should make this video even more conviction that $TSLA is so far ahead of the competition. Sandy Munro said that when he was at Ford, he couldn't get them to make any changes even though they would benefit Ford. Tesla makes changes on the go which makes it better as it goes along before production.

 

[llirk]

That AP1 in older cars (Pre-Facelift).

My car is a 2018.10 build with HW2.5

 

[mikevbf]

The new chemistry (density, charging rates, enviro-friendly, responsibly mined), the tabless ends, even the lowered cost. None of those are as concrete and real to the industry as Battery constraints. All the other areas on battery day are not stopping cars and stationary systems from being produced.

I agree, no longer being battery constrained would be HUGE. My bet is with the tabless design enabling larger format batteries that then are put into packs without modules is going to significantly simplify and speed up manufacturing hence the name Roadrunner. With multiple fast running battery plants the constraint to battery manufacturing I believe will be the battery material feedstock to these battery plants. It takes a lot longer to increase mining inputs than to build out battery manufacturing. 5 years is the minimum amount of time to hugely ramp nickel for example. Securing battery materials at reasonable prices, large enough quantities on time is what I hope to get clarity on during battery day. BTW Tesla would need like 40 Piedmonts to support Terafactoy levels of production. And that's just N.American lithium. If you want Elon to address this bottleneck go to SAY and upvote my battery material question or come with your own and I'll upvote it:

Say

 

[Sofie]

Judging by your posts over the last few months I’m wondering whether investing is the right thing for you. Especially in TSLA. It feels like you’re carrying a huge weight on your shoulders. Investing should improve your life, not give you constant anxiety.

I don’t always feel constant anxiety over my holdings in Tesla. I ultimately, overall, felt good about what I was planning to do. This November election is the only event, not the ups and downs of TSLA, that has always had me worried from the start a few months ago. as we get closer I’m starting to get more and more worried.
I have a lot of stock in another company (Publix, a private company) that I’ve been buying routinely and holding since I was 16. It’s just since July that my anxiety about everything in general is building. I wish I could see the future and know for certain that our world isn’t going to come crashing down at some point after the election. I enjoy investing and want to lose the fear.
No worries though. I’m sure I’ll end up holding it all in the end and everything will be okay after the new year. I seem to always make the right decisions, for the most part.

 

[JusRelax]

I agree with you!
Lately though, I’m feeling rather nervous, I suppose, regarding the elections and all the changes that I see coming to the economy and the entire world. This is despite my acknowledgment that I don’t need the money I have invested right now, and I do have time on my side to wait it out. But what if this election, crash, bear market (whatever we call it), is different? I have never seen or heard of so much unrest and so much political/economic/social change coming to a global scale as I’m seeing now. And that, is what makes me question my HODL strategy today. hmmm...I’m still evaluating what I should do.

I believe you may be suffering from recency bias. Media feeds on recency bias and likes to pick/choose data/signals to amplify their point that the upcoming disaster event is always the worst one that we've ever experienced.

Edit: not to say that political events will have no effect on TSLA and stocks in general, but since you're holding for the super long term and don't need the cash anytime soon whatsoever, I think there is very little you need to worry about.

 

[jerry33]

For the legacy OEMs, I think it will be fairly easy for them to build EVs.

This is questionable. There are few similarities between EVs and ICE other than the suspension components and windshield glass.