MartinAustin
Active Member
While I am here... here is a map of the south-east Austin area, showing the Circuit Of The Americas, Tesla site, and Austin's airport. Pretty amazing
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
First, he's from Michigan. Second, he knows trucks. Third, he really studies.
ZachF
Active Member
In case you guys were wondering what applying Tesla's battery day slide:
with a baseline model 3 battery pack, it looks like this:
What you see above is the end of ICE.
The $/KWh of $108 is from Sandy Munro's estimate. (Same with the $250 for the Bolt)
For instance, a circa 2023/2024 Tesla Model 3 Plaid edition could not only easily be a 850hp monster with 450-500 miles of range, but it would cost less to build than the current M3P! Even with more powerful motors taken into account!
Using the bottom numbers as a baseline, they match up with Plaid S perfectly. You end up with a 630kg battery pack with ~150KWh of storage, 840 KW of power, and a cost of $7,128.
BTW, The 200KWh Roadster pack probably has ~1.1MW of power available!!!!!
with a baseline model 3 battery pack, it looks like this:
What you see above is the end of ICE.
The $/KWh of $108 is from Sandy Munro's estimate. (Same with the $250 for the Bolt)
For instance, a circa 2023/2024 Tesla Model 3 Plaid edition could not only easily be a 850hp monster with 450-500 miles of range, but it would cost less to build than the current M3P! Even with more powerful motors taken into account!
Using the bottom numbers as a baseline, they match up with Plaid S perfectly. You end up with a 630kg battery pack with ~150KWh of storage, 840 KW of power, and a cost of $7,128.
BTW, The 200KWh Roadster pack probably has ~1.1MW of power available!!!!!
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MartinAustin
Active Member
TSLA closed at $423 on the eve of Battery Day. (after Elon's tweet) TSLA is now around that level in pre-market.
TSLA closed at around $449 prior to his expectations-lowering tweet.
TSLA closed at around $449 prior to his expectations-lowering tweet.
ZachF
Active Member
The above also suggests that a "Model 2 Plaid" with >400 miles of range and 450KW (600HP) is probably also possible for <$40k. That would be a fun car.
ICE cars are going to seem really slow and dumb in just a few years...
ICE cars are going to seem really slow and dumb in just a few years...
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Cape Coddess
2 Roths full - holding!
I'm right there with all these posts. Looks like The Frugal Wealthy need their own thread. It would be fun, and funny, to discuss this at length.
One thing I'd really love to discuss is the quandary of updating our Tesla's.
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Most have missed that Tesla already mentioned they are cost competitive in markets where they actually compete. In terms of performance, safety, tech, and cost of ownership, a Model 3 or S is already a better value for most buyers than similar vehicles. The wonderful numbers you have broken down above just change it from "competitive" to "utterly destroy".
IMO battery day has added a pillar to the Tesla growth trajectory as large as FSD.
Even just taking the 50% battery weight into account with a performance 3 and assuming better cooling, that's a track beast right there. That's with no other changes. If you want to start talking about a smaller body and more power then it starts getting crazy. I'd LOVE a cyber 3 myself.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
I pointed this out previously, but there is a false assumption in this math.
About 1/2 of the 2170 cells in a current 3/Y pack do not touch each other, but are instead separated by a long 4-5mm wide cooling "spacer" that runs between them.
For this reason alone, the 4680 cells will pack in tighter than the 2170 cells will, because the 4680s cells are being cooled at the top/bottom of their ends, and not along the lateral sides.
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corduroy
Active Member
I thought that 2 years ago when got my Tesla.
RationalOptimist
Member
Building self-driving cars is really hard. From The Information today.
"After five years and an investment of around $2.5 billion, Uber’s effort to build a self-driving car has produced this: a car that can’t drive more than half a mile without encountering a problem. “The car doesn’t drive well” and “struggles with simple routes and simple maneuvers,” said a manager in the unit, in a 1,500-word email sent three weeks ago to Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, warning of the issues."
If Tesla really can produce a game-changing release by the end of the year... there will be many more who throw in the towel.
"After five years and an investment of around $2.5 billion, Uber’s effort to build a self-driving car has produced this: a car that can’t drive more than half a mile without encountering a problem. “The car doesn’t drive well” and “struggles with simple routes and simple maneuvers,” said a manager in the unit, in a 1,500-word email sent three weeks ago to Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, warning of the issues."
If Tesla really can produce a game-changing release by the end of the year... there will be many more who throw in the towel.
Driver Dave
Member
Tesla ownership:
Day 1:
"Look at me! I'm in the future!"
Day 2:
"Look at all those cars. They are in the past!"
TSLA. Not the future. The very real present.
For all interested, I had an incredible time at battery day, enjoyed meeting a ton of well known people and even have been in front of the new battery production line but they did only grant access to institutional investors.
My Y at the presentation was standing in the 3rd row right to the stage where Elon and Drew presented and all the influencers have been around my vehicle. I was out with the key influencer group for dinner the night before and we have been hanging out having meetings or just for fun the day after. For time reasons I could not do all meetings and received information that I cannot even disclose but are good to know.
Can't express how informative and great it was to meet and talk to many key people in the ecosystem of Elon.
I also had a chat with Martin Viecha and we agreed to meet again. More about that at a later point in time.
You find first impressions in this video
My Y at the presentation was standing in the 3rd row right to the stage where Elon and Drew presented and all the influencers have been around my vehicle. I was out with the key influencer group for dinner the night before and we have been hanging out having meetings or just for fun the day after. For time reasons I could not do all meetings and received information that I cannot even disclose but are good to know.
Can't express how informative and great it was to meet and talk to many key people in the ecosystem of Elon.
I also had a chat with Martin Viecha and we agreed to meet again. More about that at a later point in time.
You find first impressions in this video
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I should have known better: leaving a neutral political post - even with a warning not to make it about party politics! - will inevitably turn into a Trump/Biden bashing contest. Several posts were removed. Next one is good for a 1 day vacation.
~~~~And even more no longer exist~~~~
~~~~And even more no longer exist~~~~
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Did you even read what she wrote?
Here it is, whether she wrote 2 or 3 is immaterial:
"Predictably, when @elonmusk announced at Battery Day last week that would cut the price of a Model 3 to $25,000, several financial analysts panicked, downgrading the stock and/or cutting their price targets. In our view, traditional financial analysts have missed the mark.
Traditional auto analysts are analyzing a mature industry in which lower prices signal trouble: higher inventories and lower sales. Led by #Tesla, electric vehicles (EVs) are in their infancy, and BECAUSE of lower costs and prices, are moving into exponential growth trajectory
According to Wright’s Law, for every cumulative doubling in the number of EVs produced, costs will drop by 28%, suggesting that EV prices will drop below those of gas powered vehicles on a like-for-like basis during the next two years
Analysts following should be expert in energy storage, robotics, artificial intelligence, and software-as-service. While they are expert at the internal combustion engine, traditional auto analysts are not equipped to analyze EVs, particularly .
According to @skorusARK’s battery research, #EV sales will scale nearly 20-fold from roughly 1.8 million last year to 35 million, 40% of total global auto sales, during the next five to six years.
The auto industry has not enjoyed exponential growth in roughly 100 years. EVs have entered exponential growth territory that will last for the next five to ten years."
Elon corrected her in that he referred to the new model when talking about the $25k price, but that the prices of existing models will be going down as well I think is uncontested.. We saw it with model s S, X and 3 already. So, even with her writing 3, she is still right on point..
Stop presenting this as some incompetent gaffe..
This mandatory Monday morning dip is going on for longer than expected. :/
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