Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Bet TSLA]

I sold a p480 for next Friday. We'll see what happens.

Respect!

What?? Selling far in the money puts is hardly any riskier than selling any other puts. Nor does it imply any particular belief that the stock will go up, just that it won't go down much. So just what is it you are respecting here? I don't see it.

 

[JBRR]

TSLA Q3'20 Earnings Forecast & The Future of this Blog

In summary, I am forecasting Q2 => Q3:

• Automotive Revenue: $5.18B => $7.65B
• Automotive Sales Gross Margin Excluding Credits: 20.7% => 21.3%
• Total Revenue: $6.04B => $8.82B
• Gross Profit: $1.27B => $1.99B
• Total Gross Margin: 21% => 22.5%
• EBIT: $327M => $750M
• GAAP Profit: $104M => $468M
• Non-GAAP EPS: $0.44 => $0.87
• Free Cash Flow: $418M => $693M

View attachment 599387
View attachment 599388

Thank you - always appreciate your posts.

This has got to stop though: $5.18B => $7.65B.
x => y
is common notation for x is equal or larger than y and it's screwing with my head, reading it

 

[heltok]

First pillars up in Austin:

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/ReflexFunds/with_replies

 

[InDaClub]

OT:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1317274309186838529?s=20

 

[mongo]

Thank you - always appreciate your posts.

This has got to stop though: $5.18B => $7.65B.
x => y
is common notation for x is equal or larger than y and it's screwing with my head, reading it

How do you feel about -> or --> ?
Would that trigger a memory fault due to use of pointers?

 

[Christine69420]

https://twitter.com/ReflexFunds/with_replies

This is one incredible graph!

How do you feel about -> or --> ?
Would that trigger a memory fault due to use of pointers?

Would probably be OK since they are not NULL pointers.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

https://twitter.com/ReflexFunds/with_replies

This isn't eye opening to us, but the rest of the world should really have a look at this. It would be interesting to see the cash positions of each company too. I bet that would be even more ..informative.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Full 20 min interview on CNBC with Ron Baron 3 days ago:

"Billionaire Ron Baron on Tesla, Amazon, Zoom, SpaceX, Twilio, Pelaton and The MarketStock Market News and Interviews" (20:50)

 

[SPadival]

Not sure if this has been posted:

SR+ RHD in Australia & UK have a delivery timeline of November 2020. Australia also got a range increase + $7k price reduction + power trunk

For wrong side EU drivers, it’s February 2021 for SR+ and November 2020 for LR.

So reading between the lines, It seems SR+ to EU, AU, HK, NZ etc will be Made In China LFP

And from now on, all Made In Fremont SR+ with Li ion cells will be only for the North American market

 

[Yuha]

The price cut in Norway seems to be due to currency exchange rates. When covid19 hit in March, NOK dropped by about 15% compared to USD (because Norway is an oil county) and Tesla raised prices by over 10% in April. NOK has gradually recovered to near pre-covid levels and the price cut mostly just reverses the April raise. CleanTechnica has further details:

Tesla Model 3 Price Drops By $3,300–3,700 In Norway

 

[Cape Coddess]

Thank you - always appreciate your posts.

This has got to stop though: $5.18B => $7.65B.
x => y
is common notation for x is equal or larger than y and it's screwing with my head, reading it

Agree. I was looking at his post going, man what's he drinking?

Maybe if he uses
==>
It won't screw so much with us oldsters (speaking for myself) who are used to equal to or greater than .

Edit: Ah, I see you guys have already beat me to a solution. Nice.

 

[ZachF]

Vatican City sales...

Sales in Liechtenstein were also down 50% in September compared to August! #TSLAQ #DOOOM!!!

Thank you - always appreciate your posts.

This has got to stop though: $5.18B => $7.65B.
x => y
is common notation for x is equal or larger than y and it's screwing with my head, reading it

There is an arrow symbol

→

 

[UkNorthampton]

Container ships, not roros.

Thanks. I forgot - they get shipped in two halves and then put together in NL (I think).

 

[perwis]

Elon at the Mars Society Event:

Thanks for posting this. Great to see and hear Elon speak. He seems to be in good spirit and shape. A benefit of doing zoom interviews is that Elon is not as easily interrupted, which most journalists do when interviewing him. (This was also not journalists interviewing him.)

Most striking for me was hearing Elon explaining how he starts with the goal and then works out what is needed to reach that goal.

I think that this is one of Elon’s superpowers, and essential to understand him as an innovator and business leader.

So: 1) start with the right goal and then 2) use first principles to work out how to achieve that goal.

Sounds easy, but is hard to do in practice. Elon’s goals are super ambitious and seems
to be mainly altruistic, like making humanity multi-planetary or getting the economy out of its fossil fuel addiction. That altruistic value-base might help in perseverance to apply first principles and thinking “outside the box”.

 

[PV4EV]

TSLA Q3'20 Earnings Forecast & The Future of this Blog

In summary, I am forecasting Q2 => Q3:

• Automotive Revenue: $5.18B => $7.65B
• Automotive Sales Gross Margin Excluding Credits: 20.7% => 21.3%
• Total Revenue: $6.04B => $8.82B
• Gross Profit: $1.27B => $1.99B
• Total Gross Margin: 21% => 22.5%
• EBIT: $327M => $750M
• GAAP Profit: $104M => $468M
• Non-GAAP EPS: $0.44 => $0.87
• Free Cash Flow: $418M => $693M

I appreciate the effort you’ve put into this. However, anyone with a programming background is going to risk possible cerebral stack corruption reading through all the notation you’ve used !!

Perhaps rising “Automotive Revenue: $5.18B => $7.65B” would be better expressed as “$5.18B ---> $7.65B in Q3” ? or similar.


Edit:- yeah, one of these " → " could be handy ;-)

.

 

[Christine69420]

NASDAQ looks very Gordie-friendly today:

Perhaps it is some transactions that settled after the after-market closed? It does not look very eh - professional. But it's from Nasdaq itself so per definition correct I guess. Do we get a 3700% bounce on monday?

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Just read this comment on twitter:

GM will be out-spending Tesla in electric/autonomous vehicle R&D by a factor of ~4 over the next five years.

The delusion in people is strong. I dont think GM will be in bsuiness in 2025, so the idea that they even have an R&D budget in 2024 is pretty optimistic if you ask me.
People really are like rabbits in ICE headlights, staring at the total collapse of the global fossil fuel industry under full glare, pretending it is not happening. I am sick of trying to point out the stunningly obvious. Just happy to take those peoples lifes savings and make them my own. *sigh*.

 

[jbcarioca]

For those of us who value @Mr Miserable and his excellent work on shipping movements, I asked him to make a Go Fund Me site, and he did:
Satellite ship tracking, organized by Al Moyes

The funds are needed to help defray the costs of obtaining worldwide Tesla shipping data, now more valuable but also more expensive as train shipping begins to be relevant and Shanghai data si now critical also. Rumors suggest possible Shanghai/Europe train routes also. He does need help to develop and maintain all that data.

Everyone trying to forecast and measure exports and imports for Tesla values this data.

Please help.

 

[traxila]

Just read this comment on twitter:



The delusion in people is strong. I dont think GM will be in bsuiness in 2025, so the idea that they even have an R&D budget in 2024 is pretty optimistic if you ask me.
People really are like rabbits in ICE headlights, staring at the total collapse of the global fossil fuel industry under full glare, pretending it is not happening. I am sick of trying to point out the stunningly obvious. Just happy to take those peoples lifes savings and make them my own. *sigh*.

I responded to my friend who was explaining to me how renewables will start getting some real traction in twenty to thirty years because people don’t like being told what to do that he lacked the vision to see the tremendous disruption that was taking place, and how history shows how people always and universally underestimate disruption once the tipping point is reached.

He took this personally. He reacted as if I called him stupid. Which I had not...and don’t believe that he is. He is fairly smart most of the time, which is far above the population average.

But this is the deal. Few people can grasp disruption and what it actually means for a particular industry. It is not an easy concept for Homo sapiens. Think our brains evolved not to work that way. We are working against an evolutionary process at times trying to explain stuff to people. The only reason I might have a clue is because I have been studying disruption for some time, and also because I have multiple examples of my own lack of vision from the recent past.