Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[hd-2]

Not sure why you would take Troy's estimate of 2021 as anything other than a wild guess. He has literally no insight that far out from his data gathering method and has no information that we don't have when it comes to Tesla's production ramp for Giga Berlin and Austin, as well as Giga 3 Phase 2. He has no knowledge of any upcoming price drops(which I do think will happen as MIC Model Y and then Berlin Model Y being production).

In fact as I'm writing this and thinking out loud, there's really no purpose to Troy putting out a 2021 estimate, zero. I'm surprised anyone here would actually view his 2021 estimate and have it affect/alter their own opinion or view. It's just a wild guess

There's still a pretty massive difference between Troy's educated guesses/extrapolations, and the random non-sense you see from "analysts" that are paid to come up with the correct number, and trade on it.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

There's still a pretty massive difference between Troy's educated guesses/extrapolations, and the random non-sense you see from "analysts" that are paid to come up with the correct number, and trade on it.

For sure, Troy's estimate is still higher than most analysts by quite a margin. I'm just a bit surprised by those taking this estimate to heart and lowering their expectations(not just here, on other platforms like twitter and FB groups too). All of us here are pretty will informed and while Troy's estimate is more accurate than what analysts are currently projecting, it's still very much below what the production capacity Tesla themselves have stated they're going to be at.

 

[willow_hiller]

I'm glad we're up slightly after hours. It means the news reading algo-bots have gotten a bit more intelligent with Tesla FUD.

"Model Y Recall" being plastered all over Reddit... Turns out that with the Tow Package enabled, the brake lights weren't working correctly. Tesla started fixing the issue a month ago OTA, but also filed with the NHTSA because it involved safety lights.

"Recall" just doesn't seem like the right word when owners can have the issue fixed without ever realizing it.

Tesla Model Y recalled for wonky trailer brake lights - Roadshow

 

[Khamul]

Does anyone know TeslaRay@Raymathd? He has some interesting tweets about FSD:

 

[Mo City]

And OMG please faster with the Cybertruck!

I'll eat my hat if Austin produces <10K CTs in 2021.

 

[Reductionist]

Does anyone know TeslaRay@Raymathd? He has some interesting tweets about FSD:

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Never heard of him before. In any case, there's almost nothing we can deduct from these tweets wrt the capability of the rewrite, even if this is genuine. I would recommend waiting a day or two for youtube videos to show up. Then we can judge for ourselves how good the new software is.

 

[Singuy]

Does anyone know TeslaRay@Raymathd? He has some interesting tweets about FSD:

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Ultimate flex if Tesla picked people with actual good record of driving based on the data they collected including those who looked straight while EAP is on or not.

 

[bkp_duke]

I'll eat my hat if Austin produces <10K CTs in 2021.

Quoted for posterity.

If they do produce more than 10k, we want to see this on video please.

 

[kengchang]

Quoted for posterity.

If they do produce more than 10k, we want to see this on video please.

He's saying if Tesla makes less than 10K CT..

 

[Mo City]

For sure, Troy's estimate is still higher than most analysts by quite a margin. I'm just a bit surprised by those taking this estimate to heart and lowering their expectations(not just here, on other platforms like twitter and FB groups too). All of us here are pretty will informed and while Troy's estimate is more accurate than what analysts are currently projecting, it's still very much below what the production capacity Tesla themselves have stated they're going to be at.

What bugs me the most about Troy-2021 are the numbers for Fremont. His are over 150K below capacity. Unlike Berlin and Austin, Fremont for 2021 should not be a wild guess.

I assume he has a rationale.

 

[bkp_duke]

He's saying if Tesla makes less than 10K CT..

Drat, I was looking forward to that video . . .

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

What bugs me the most about Troy-2021 are the numbers for Fremont. His are over 150K below capacity. Unlike Berlin and Austin, Fremont for 2021 should not be a wild guess.

I assume he has a rationale.

Right, that's where I have an issue with this estimate. Troy is effectively saying Tesla won't have enough demand to keep Fremont running at max capacity when Giga China and Giga Berlin come online. I think that's a fundamentally flawed logic.....mainly because I see Tesla dropping the price of the Model 3 and Y in the US once they achieve cost reductions through the start of/ramp up of local production at China/Berlin and will spread those cost savings with price drops across many territories, which will as Tesla has shown, open up Tesla vehicles to new consumer thresholds that are exponentially bigger with each price threshold Tesla breaks through.

 

[bkp_duke]

Right, that's where I have an issue with this estimate. Troy is effectively saying Tesla won't have enough demand to keep Fremont running at max capacity when Giga China and Giga Berlin come online. I think that's a fundamentally flawed logic.....mainly because I see Tesla dropping the price of the Model 3 and Y in the US once they achieve cost reductions through the start of/ramp up of local production at China/Berlin and will spread those cost savings with price drops across many territories, which will as Tesla has shown, open up Tesla vehicles to new consumer thresholds that are exponentially bigger with each price threshold Tesla breaks through.

It's all complete guesswork, but I believe that looking through these "estimates" through the demand lens is the wrong way to go about this.

Tesla is most likely to still remain battery supply constrained in 2021, and a 60% increase in production given that constraint is probably optimistic, not pessimistic.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

It's all complete guesswork, but I believe that looking through these "estimates" through the demand lens is the wrong way to go about this.

Tesla is most likely to still remain battery supply constrained in 2021, and a 60% increase in production given that constraint is probably optimistic, not pessimistic.

Idk, I don't think Tesla is battery supply constrained to hit 1 million in 2021. We'll see on Wednesday. If they continue to guide to 500k for 2020, that means they have the battery supply to make 180k vehicles right now, this quarter. If they can hit that, they'll have enough battery supply to go from 180k to an average of 250k for each quarter in 2021.....which of course is an average. I see them starting 2021 at 200k vehicles forQ1 and ending somewhere around 300-325k during Q4 2021.

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Mon, Oct 19, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

Headline: "Slow Fade on Macro Uncertainty"

Traded: $16,012,785,931.51 ($16.01B)
Volume: 36,570,184
VWAP: $437.86

Close: $430.83 / VWAP: 98.15%
TSLA closed BELOW today's Avg SP
Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM $401.451B / $181.454B = 221.24%​

CEO Comp. Status:

TSLA 1-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $399.66
TSLA 6-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $270.04
Nota Bene: 4th tranche of CEO comp. likely unlocked Oct 06-07

'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 51.9% (51st Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short/Total Volume = 37.1% (44th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume was 0.28% of Short Volume (43rd Percentile Rank)​

Comment: "TSLA capped at previous Close; fades over last hour"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

 

[FrankSG]

Thanks @FrankSG!

> The 50x EBIT multiple is simply something I've used, usually to look at options
SP @50x EBIT is a/the key factor in evaluating if it's right time to buy options?

You can read My TSLA Investment Strategy for more details, but it's a valuation I've been comfortable 'betting' on with options for a year or so. Obviously TSLA is valued much higher right now by the market.

I might be going on a tangent here, but related to the topic of the expected SP trajectory (barring S&P factor), do you see IV (on LEAPS) coming down even further from here, considering the current IV is high historically speaking?

I'm not sure about IV. Presumably if the stock remains less volatile for longer, that will impact options IV, but there should be a number of other factors impacting IV. I don't really make predictions on where IV will go.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Here's Troy's main flaw, at least in my opinion, when it comes to his estimate. In a couple tweets he clarifies why his estimate is low:

https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike/status/1318340018386182149

He's essentially saying that you can't take Q4 production/delivery rates and apply it to the whole year because of seasonality. The flaw with this is Tesla doesn't really observe seasonality and Troy's being duped because of the history over the past 2 years which was

Beginning of 2019 - Delivery logistics nightmare and affects of the tax credit expiring. Remember throughout 2019 Tesla was continually wanting to get to higher production rates but was dealing with Panasonic constantly not expanding at the same rate as Tesla.

Beginning of 2020 - Tesla was unable to deliver the cars it planned on delivering because of Covid. Tesla even said they were on track to have an all time high quarter.....not just all time high Q1, but all time high of any quarter before Covid started shutting things down. Both Q1 and Q2 2020 would have beaten Q4 2019 had Covid not been a thing.

Seasonality exists, but Tesla has enough demand to not see any impact from it like other auto makers....that are working within a addressable market that has fully matured.

 

[Unpilot]

I'll eat my hat if Austin produces <10K CTs in 2021.

Don't recommend hat eating.
I tried Lodger's...yuck!

 

[gabeincal]

https://twitter.com/c4chaos/status/1318301711832735744?s=20



Bullish. Cheers!

 

[Singuy]

Here's Troy's main flaw, at least in my opinion, when it comes to his estimate. In a couple tweets he clarifies why his estimate is low:

https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike/status/1318340018386182149

He's essentially saying that you can't take Q4 production/delivery rates and apply it to the whole year because of seasonality. The flaw with this is Tesla doesn't really observe seasonality and Troy's being duped because of the history over the past 2 years which was

Beginning of 2019 - Delivery logistics nightmare and affects of the tax credit expiring. Remember throughout 2019 Tesla was continually wanting to get to higher production rates but was dealing with Panasonic constantly not expanding at the same rate as Tesla.

Beginning of 2020 - Tesla was unable to deliver the cars it planned on delivering because of Covid. Tesla even said they were on track to have an all time high quarter.....not just all time high Q1, but all time high of any quarter before Covid started shutting things down. Both Q1 and Q2 2020 would have beaten Q4 2019 had Covid not been a thing.

Seasonality exists, but Tesla has enough demand to not see any impact from it like other auto makers....that are working within a addressable market that has fully matured.

Well there's one aspect seasonality to Tesla and that is they build inventory in Q1 and sell more than they produce in Q4. This has been pretty consistent.