Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

My reading of Elons remarks are that it'll be feature complete in the sense, mostly borrowing his words here, that it will have a "non zero percent" chance of doing any given element of the driving task in all most situations.

I expect in some of those situations, initially, it'll be closer to 0 percent than 100- and Elons own remarks on roundabouts for example support this (he said it would do them initially, but wouldn't do them WELL for probably another year, and said so pretty recently).

And I expect officially it's all still at L2, and at least some situations, like the initial stop sign/light rollout, it'll require explicit driver confirmation of actions.

If I recall correctly(and someone feel free to correct me if I'm wrong) but a long time ago Elon said something along the lines of a build doesn't get sent out to beta users until there's at least a 50% rate of success. I 100% do not believe Tesla/Elon would release the FSD beta build if any of the features in "feature complete" were having a success rate of lower than 50%. If would not only be too extreme in terms of safety but could potentially very much hurt Tesla's image.

I actually seem to remember him saying something like success rate has to be above 70% for them to release a new feature/build to beta users.

 

[Fred42]

The biggest takewaway so far, the base model is $79k 250mi and does not appear until 2024. The initial model is over $110k. Looks nice. But not that nice. I would actually be interested in the base at $49k. See how it compares to my by then three year old cybertruck.

2024??? Really? What will Tesla have by then? Cybertruck will probably work underwater in 2024.

Hopefully by 2024 Tesla will be cranking out Cybertruck Jr.'s somewhere in China and Tesla will have the market well covered.

 

[dww12]

They also have ultium batteries!

$112k.

 

[Nolimits]

Looks hideous.

 

[Todd Burch]

All specs using “virtual engineering tools” and “simulation”.

Their charging network is also virtual. As are their hopes that this price/spec ratio will succeed against a Cybertruck.

 

[Knightshade]

If I recall correctly(and someone feel free to correct me if I'm wrong) but a long time ago Elon said something along the lines of a build doesn't get sent out to beta users until there's at least a 50% rate of success. I 100% do not believe Tesla/Elon would release the FSD beta build if any of the features in "feature complete" were having a success rate of lower than 50%. If would not only be too extreme in terms of safety but could potentially very much hurt Tesla's image.

I actually seem to remember him saying something like success rate has to be above 70% for them to release a new feature/build to beta users.

Here's his exact words about what feature complete means from Q4 2019 earnings call

“feature complete just means it has some chance of going from your home to work with no interventions. It doesn’t mean the features are working well. It means it has above zero chance.

The roundabout bit I mention is from twitter from mid-August

Will take maybe a year or so to get really good at roundabouts worldwide

I'm unaware of him saying anything about 50 or 70 percent rates of success but would be interested in sources if he has.

 

[phantasms]

“Exclusive interior badge”

 

[Mike Smith]

No doubt the Hummer unveil will give TSLA a boost tomorrow. Wall Street thought this was going to compete with Cybertruck..

 

[larmor]

The market for cars is large and Tesla has basically pushed gm to make an EV. The more evs the better. Hope they can make it without any huge flaw to bring evs down. Tesla engineering remains 5 to 10 years ahead.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Here's his exact words about what feature complete means from Q4 2019 earnings call



The roundabout bit I mention is from twitter from mid-August




I'm unaware of him saying anything about 50 or 70 percent rates of success but would be interested in sources if he has.

I'll see if I can find the source of the quotes I'm thinking of. It was quite a while ago, 2+ yrs where I believe on a earnings call, Elon was describing the process for how they vet each build release and when it's "acceptable" for it to go out to beta users.

In the quotes you referenced though, that doesn't really dispel what I was saying.

"“feature complete just means it has some chance of going from your home to work with no interventions. It doesn’t mean the features are working well. It means it has above zero chance."

I interpret that as saying a full FSD drive experience will have a low rate of success at first when trying to do a complete trip with no interventions. Not that say "left handed turns at a traffic light" fail 75% of the time. I do not think Tesla would release builds where a feature is failing that much. I don't think I've ever seen a build go out with any feature where the feature was failing more than 50% of the time. To me, a feature that fails 50% of the time is a broken feature and not feature complete. Everything Tesla has released in their builds up until this point supports that any build they release usually has at least a 50% success rate when using it.

Advanced Summon was buggy when it first came out....but it definitely had at a least a 50% success rate when performing the intended action

 

[LN1_Casey]

Say what you will, 350+ range with a vehicle that looks like a brick is pretty impressive.

Not saying they'll actually hit it, but if they do--with their inferior battery tech, it is impressive.

 

[GOVA]

Hey Barra, Toyo FJ Cruiser called. They wanna their crappy look back. At least it was good crappy look. What a disaster this is. First 4 wheels and box, now this monstrosity.

TSLA Cyber is doomed. LOL.

 

[TNEVol]

Actually GM needs to compete with Silverado, F150 and Ram to succeed. We will know when they are serious when they try to move their customers from one GM ICE model to a cost comparable BEV.

 

[Stretch2727]

The Hummer has one feature that definitely competes with Cybertruck.

Same reservation fee $100.

Really quite unbelievable that their least expensive model is priced above the most expensive Cybertruck, and 2024 for the Hummer at $80K.

 

[phantasms]

Anyone else feel like “100 miles in 10 minutes” is quite slow, especially for a 800v 350kW system?

Are they literally making up numbers? I feel like they’re literally making up numbers.

 

[EVortex]

“Exclusive interior badge”

We don’t need no stinkin’ badges.

 

[Singuy]

Anyone else feel like “100 miles in 10 minutes” is quite slow, especially for a 800v 350kW system?

Are they literally making up numbers? I feel like they’re literally making up numbers.

I thought this exactly because my car can do that at 150kw.

Perhaps the battery pack is gigantic.

 

[amolina]

So... Which of you Europeans are hardcore enough to stay up and listen to the earnings call tomorrow? It'll start at 23:30 CEST which is well past many of your bed times!

Me Me Me. I hate that earnings day ruins my next day. I am usually too excited to fall sleep

 

[BrownOuttaSpec]

I thought this exactly because my car can do that at 150kw.

Perhaps the battery pack is gigantic.

This is the wrong thread but yeah, they are Gigantic (Right thread). 2x 400v battery pack systems in parallel that can switch to series and charge at 800v, approx 200 kWh pack: YouTube Link with Video Breakdown

I feel like this is going to help TSLA tomorrow since its a bunch of vaporware.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

2024? Are you really announcing anything if it's still 4yrs out?