Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tim S]

The Tesla 2020 Q4 Financial Letter is likely going to be released on Wed, Feb 24, 2021. The new President will be inaugurated on Jan 20, 2021 (at Noon, per the U.S. Constitution). The coro will still be with us, but Tesla's target customers are mostly working from home already, and will have uninterupted income.

Cheers!

February? Q4 Earnings were released Jan 29th this year. I would expect Q4 2020 Earnings to be released on Wed, Jan 27, 2021. (Or maybe Jan 20th).

Am I missing something?

 

[Prunesquallor]

Considering how fast the senate confirmed the most recent Supreme Court nominee, about 10 days after inauguration if the new administration makes it that high of a priority (given your assumptions).

Amazing how fast government can move given motivation.


I doubt this particular issue will achieve anything like this level of focused attention though. Later in 2021 (summer or fall) is my guess at the very soonest (no particular background or study of the situation - this really is a guess). With an election in 2022, if the Dems think this is an issue that will get them votes, then I would count on 2021 or earlyish 2022. Heck - if there is concern this will lose them votes and it's important to them, then same timeline (get it done before the next elections change the ability to get it done).

Attempting to make it retroactive is a non-starter (MHO). Besides the lawsuits, forcing people to go back and restate taxes won't play well among any constituencies, about any constituencies.

Iff dems take WH, and Senate (and keep House), the pace of legislation will be very rapid (recall first year of Obama and Clinton).

Retroactive tax credit shouldn’t be a problem. Just claim it in subsequent years. That’s how the home charging deduction worked when it was reinstated.

 

[Todd Burch]

Refers to a deleted post]

You're in the Investment thread, we are one day before a presidential election, this election is unlike any other, and its uncertainty is affecting the market.

As long as the discussion is about the EFFECT of the elections on stock prices, it seems fair game. If the discussion delves into political views policy debates, etc.---that is a different story.

 

[Curt Renz]

Bemzinga - half hour ago: Tesla Autopilot Could Prevent 80% Of Accidents, Says German Researcher

 

[JRP3]

Elon re cyber

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1323347225611829248?s=20

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Not sure if cars are also priced in completely. If Tesla gets to 20 million sales at a 30% automotive margin at ASP of $40,000, their gross profits will be 240 billion, which is close the Apple's annual revenue. They can literally fail at FSD and Tesla Energy and their marketcap would still be in the multi-trillions if their automotive segment keeps growing as they are.

To get to the 20 million sales, the model 2 and possibly model 1 would have to be in production, which brings down the ASP and gross margins. But even with ASP of $30,000 and gm of 25%, that's still $150B in gross profits, which would still support a $trillion valuation.

 

[Green Pete]

Just drove by the freemont factory on I880 north and they have a fence up with tarps covering the fence that say "new project coming soon". Is that just the pilot facility for the new batteries or does Tesla have something else up their sleeve on the cusp of reveal that I'm not aware of?

it ain't the pilot, the pilot is already up and running in Kato

maybe ill swing by tomorrow if someone else doesn't get one up by then. it was only visible for like 10 seconds of drive time and i wasn't going to circle back

Sorry, it's the showroom south of the factory. That makes me think it's less significant than it otherwise might be. But maybe it is something.

 

[JRP3]

Karen educating Elon

https://twitter.com/enn_nafnlaus/status/1323359973557084162?s=20

 

[StealthP3D]

From ARK's newsletter today:

...According to ARK’s research, autonomous electric trucks could transport freight for 3 cents per ton-mile, 75% less than the 12 cents for human-driven diesel trucks and 25% less than the 4 cents for rail transport.​

The addressable market for Tesla Semi with FSD in not the current trucking market. It is current trucking plus rail.

This would be highly ironic but someone will probably make a killing by making coal hopper trailers and using the Tesla Semi to haul them to the coal burning utility plants.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Not mine - but just saw an interesting after-hours single trade go through for 33,000 shares at $400.51.

$13.2M.


​

 

[StealthP3D]

Karen educating Elon

View attachment 604799

https://twitter.com/enn_nafnlaus/status/1323359973557084162?s=20

I'm not sure Karen has a good grasp of just how big the Cybertruck is. Has she seen one in person yet?

I'm 6'-04" and I do want the full-sized one, but I also think a Cybertruck that was just small enough for Euro certs would be a very compelling and versatile truck, better in many ways.

 

[Christine69420]

I'm not sure Karen has a good grasp of just how big the Cybertruck is. Has she seen one in person yet?

I'm 6'-04" and I do want the full-sized one, but I also think a Cybertruck that was just small enough for Euro certs would be a very compelling and versatile truck, better in many ways.

It's tiny!

If you are used to driving a motorhome around Europe. Or a decent van.

 

[Thekiwi]

In regards to Tesla stock price following election, my guess is the following:

Biden Wins / Republicans keep senate: No EV tax credit changes, no rise in corporate/personal tax rates, CV managed better, US re-enters climate accords = slightly good for markets overall, slightly positive for Tesla Stock Price.

Biden Wins / Democrats take Senate: EV tax credit changes, corporate/personal tax rate increases, CV managed better, US re-enters climate accords = slightly negative or neutral for markets overall, Very positive for Tesla Stock Price

Trump Wins / Republicans keep senate: Status Quo - no EV tax credit changes, no rise in corporate/personal tax rates - possible more tax cuts to come, CV continues running rampant, US remains out of climate accords: would be a surprise result, perhaps big immediate jump in markets & neutral for Tesla stock price.

Trump Wins / Democrats take senate: probably no EV tax credit changes - but possible in a budget negotiation, no rise in corporate/personal tax rates, slightly better oversight of CV response, US remains out of climate accords - good for markets, neutral/slightly positive for Tesla.

(assuming Democrats hold onto power in house of representatives in all scenarios given it is 99% likely)

 

[llirk]

In regards to Tesla stock price following election, my guess is the following:

Biden Wins / Republicans keep senate: No EV tax credit changes, no rise in corporate/personal tax rates, CV managed better, US re-enters climate accords = slightly good for markets overall, slightly positive for Tesla Stock Price.

Biden Wins / Democrats take Senate: EV tax credit changes, corporate/personal tax rate increases, CV managed better, US re-enters climate accords = slightly negative or neutral for markets overall, Very positive for Tesla Stock Price

Trump Wins / Republicans keep senate: Status Quo - no EV tax credit changes, no rise in corporate/personal tax rates - possible more tax cuts to come, CV continues running rampant, US remains out of climate accords: would be a surprise result, perhaps big immediate jump in markets & neutral for Tesla stock price.

Trump Wins / Democrats take senate: probably no EV tax credit changes - but possible in a budget negotiation, no rise in corporate/personal tax rates, slightly better oversight of CV response, US remains out of climate accords - good for markets, neutral/slightly positive for Tesla.

(assuming Democrats hold onto power in house of representatives in all scenarios given it is 99% likely)

So buy TSLA, got it.

 

[Artful Dodger]

model 1 would have to be in production, which brings down the ASP and gross margins

If Model 1 is the Robotaxi, the gross margin goes up. And if Tesla uses all it's net margin to purchase it's own fleet of robotaxis, then they pay no tax either.

I've previously calculated that net profits from annual sales of 5M S3XY vehicles allows Tesla to purchase about 6.3M robotaxis/yr for it's own fleet, leaving ~4M available for purchase by 3rd parties.

Model 2 profits are not part of this calculation. They would be extra, but for example could be used to fund a Model 2 robotaxi fleet. Very quickly, Tesla grows to enormous size and market power.

Cheers!

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Well this certainly seems like an unnecessary argument. Are we perhaps a bit TSLA/election edgy and debating things we otherwise mightn't? Focus people!

Inclusion! Blue wave! MARKET MANIPULATION! SEC!

 

[Mo City]

Iff dems take WH, and Senate (and keep House), the pace of legislation will be very rapid (recall first year of Obama and Clinton).

Retroactive tax credit shouldn’t be a problem. Just claim it in subsequent years. That’s how the home charging deduction worked when it was reinstated.

In 2008, Dems had 59 seats in the Senate. This time it will be only 50-52. Not much room for leakage.

I wouldn't assume the EV tax credit will happen for 2021. The Dems have a tidal wave of priorities. Their agenda is so large it will take quite some time. Would not surprise me if the credit passes prior to mid-terms though.

For the record, I'm NOT saying a Dem sweep isn't the best scenario for TSLA.

 

[bkp_duke]

Ford CEO: Mach-E is the first true competitor with Tesla — a Tesla is not a Mustang - Electrek

"The vehicle is a game changer. For me, the Mach-E is the first true competitor with Tesla. It’s got Detroit swagger. It’s a Mustang. Tesla is not a Mustang."

As much as I hate to say it, Ford's CEO does have a point. This car will appeal to people that cannot see themselves in a Tesla.

I'm fine with that, it advances the EV agenda.

 

[Nocturnal]

To get to the 20 million sales, the model 2 and possibly model 1 would have to be in production, which brings down the ASP and gross margins. But even with ASP of $30,000 and gm of 25%, that's still $150B in gross profits, which would still support a $trillion valuation.

FSD sales might offset that lowering of margin on smaller Tesla vehicles though, even without Robotaxi.

 

[Beltsbear]

Ford CEO: Mach-E is the first true competitor with Tesla — a Tesla is not a Mustang - Electrek

"The vehicle is a game changer. For me, the Mach-E is the first true competitor with Tesla. It’s got Detroit swagger. It’s a Mustang. Tesla is not a Mustang."

As much as I hate to say it, Ford's CEO does have a point. This car will appeal to people that cannot see themselves in a Tesla.

I'm fine with that, it advances the EV agenda.

The Mach E is a worthy Y competitor if you include the $7500 federal credit for it and not for Tesla. Hopefully we can get the field evened so the USA made Tesla gets the same credit as the Mexican made Ford.