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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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PM volume very decent for a "holiday" 1/2 day...
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Way back in early 2013, after we had been driving our 2012 Model S for a month or two, I was gushing about the car on this forum, 'best car I've ever owned, etc.'. Someone remarked, 'You realize you own the WORST version of the Model S Tesla is ever going to make.' Bingo, pushed more chips into the center of the table. So, with FSD, from today forward this is the WORST version of FSD that anyone is going to drive. Let those parallel realizations, separated by about 9 years, sink in.
Now that you've reminded me about it, I remember reading that post.
 
I was going to post that the last few months reminds of the time period in 2013 where we had multi-dag huge gap-ups and those enormous upticks after ERs, in which I made a small fortune trading options which almost paid for my Model S. So I looked up a quick stock price chart overview for all of TSLA's existence, thinking I was going to quickly see that sharp spike. But all those years, where we debated and sweated about 4-5% gains and losses in a day or in a week all just looks like nothing compared to what has happened in 2020. It's important to not get ahead of one self and remain level headed, but zooming out like this is a humbling experience.

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Found this really cool chart on Chinese EV market. Didn't expect such a share in terms of total Dollars volume.
As an investor, I ask myself, what would it look like once MIC Model Y comes online. Tesla's sales should atleast double in a period of 6-12 months minimum. How many other players can do the same??

CREDIT: TSLAFanmtl or Dragongod2718

View attachment 612269
looking more and more like aapl ... ... but will be much bigger eventually
 
Found this really cool chart on Chinese EV market. Didn't expect such a share in terms of total Dollars volume.
As an investor, I ask myself, what would it look like once MIC Model Y comes online. Tesla's sales should at least double in a period of 6-12 months minimum. How many other players can do the same??

CREDIT: TSLAFanmtl or Dragongod2718

View attachment 612269
Who are all these companies besides Tesla and Nio, right? The new Big 3 in there I wonder? Who knows.
I just sold 100 shares before the open, hope to get em back EOD. Or not, that's fine. What a year.
 
People drive differently. This will inevitably lead to whining about FSD. For aggressive drivers, it will be too docile. For overly cautious drivers, it will be too aggressive. And for those in between they will experience both because sometimes FSD is more aggressive than they would have been and at other times too slow. Add to that the inherent desire to feeling superior (remember this basic selling point of religions?) and difficulty of giving over control. It will take longer to subside than for the reduction in casualties to be apparent, I think. But then (again like religion) social pressure and fear will promote its adoption. Fear of losing one’s driving license or freedom to go where you want when old, or social pressure to have FSD : you don’t want to kill anyone now your reaction speed is worsening and you can’t turn your head as well, do you? Feelings of superiority (status) can also help adoption: My car has full self driving. To;dr: apart from the technical aspect lots of psychology is involved.


Idiotic high prices will be a deterrent. The value of FSD for a Semi Owner is different than for a retired person.
I’m not sure about that. Once it’s truly self driving, people will flip off that switch. How often do you critique the driving of your Uber driver? Only when it’s extreme right?
 
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Note he has P/E declining to 10.9 in 2030 as $TSLA becomes subject to the law of large numbers. I think it will be higher than
that due to Tesla's high-margin software revenues from FSD and their forthcoming Tesla 3rd Party App Store.
If I understand correctly, this 10.9 P/E is just today's price over 2030 earning per share (aka forward P/E). He's not predicting 2030 P/E to be that low.

Edit: FP/E at 10.9 makes TSLA cheap compared to AAPL at 15+
 
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Who are all these companies besides Tesla and Nio, right? The new Big 3 in there I wonder? Who knows.
I just sold 100 shares before the open, hope to get em back EOD. Or not, that's fine. What a year.

Just. Why?

You doing Black Friday shopping today? If not, I don’t get your logic even a teeny bit. You’re ‘hoping’ to get them back by EOD? Why not just keep them at SOD and then no ‘hope’ is required. Clearly it’s not ‘fine’ or you wouldn’t be ‘hoping’.

*deleted my hope for today*