Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[theschnell]

Remember how historically MMs would always screw the longs during low volume holidays. Looks like the tables have turned!

 

[Todd Burch]

Getting ready to pop open my “she at $3k equivalent and this ain’t even close to done” champagne for breakfast.

 

[Krugerrand]

Would love to hear other people's thoughts.

Thought bubble:

 

[Nocturnal]

Wow. I'm amazed but at the same time I expect the best is yet to come.

Watching the ticker is both saving and earning me money. I am not bothering to do any black friday shopping. The ticker is all the endorphins I need. (well, maybe some booze and some of our favorite SP)

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Hadn't planned on drinking today.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Ok, let's change the dynamic from talking about how the stock will react to S&P inclusion to what happens afterward. I think we all will agree that TSLA will only rise through 12/23. How high, we will see.

Moving post-inclusion, I am looking at 3 periods.

1- 12/23 - 12-31 - During this period I think we will see a fairly significant drop as investors take profits prior to year-end to avoid inevitable tax increase next year.

2- 1/1 - earnings - This period I really am not certain about. My gut is that the stock will trade in a new lower range predicated by the end of year profit-taking. We will probably see a slight rise as people buy on the end of year dip.

3- post-earnings - Here I think we will see another run-up as TSLA surprises on the upside once again as analysts still have no understanding of how to model this company.

Would love to hear other people's thoughts.

I think 2 tranches will occur (TBD, I believe), and that could help level out buying leading up to the 21st. One week earlier would be the 14th (Mon), so it's going to be an interesting Friday the 11th and may paint a picture on how the 2nd tranche will go.

But if they vote on one Tranche Dec 21st, does that mean the buyers think they can handle the surge? Maybe that's a weak signal indicating their buying is happening now and so that last week could be softer than expected. But ya, there will be year-end profits, followed by Q4 Earnings beat that knocks it out of the park toward $1T valuation in Early '21.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Very light on the sell side today.



EDIT: 7:07 AM PDT: Sell-side looking much more robust now.

 

[traxila]

Ok, let's change the dynamic from talking about how the stock will react to S&P inclusion to what happens afterward. I think we all will agree that TSLA will only rise through 12/23. How high, we will see.

Moving post-inclusion, I am looking at 3 periods.

1- 12/23 - 12-31 - During this period I think we will see a fairly significant drop as investors take profits prior to year-end to avoid inevitable tax increase next year.

2- 1/1 - earnings - This period I really am not certain about. My gut is that the stock will trade in a new lower range predicated by the end of year profit-taking. We will probably see a slight rise as people buy on the end of year dip.

3- post-earnings - Here I think we will see another run-up as TSLA surprises on the upside once again as analysts still have no understanding of how to model this company.

Would love to hear other people's thoughts.

Sounds reasonable.

The only point I will make is that unless the Democrats win both Senate seats in GA, there will be no change in the tax code.

 

[Phobi]

ehem...

(Picked up 2 pre-market @ 572 btw )


Long and strong.

 

[Prunesquallor]

 

[SOULPEDL]

Seems like everyone who’s posted their trades this week are on track to lose money:

1. soulpedl sold this morning hoping for a cheaper price this afternoon
2. Gabe sold $570 CCs expiring today
3. Reddyleaf sold earlier this week at $520 hoping for a lower price today.

Lesson of the day: HODL!

The day day just started and you're calling me a loser already?

 

[SOULPEDL]

I'm concerned - all the headlines for today on TD site...
Better sell another 100 shares!

 

[UkNorthampton]

I don't disagree with most of your post. However, it is a huge misconception to imply that Daimler (eg Mercedes-Benz), BMW and VAG (e.g. Audi) are mostly 'high end'. Daimler makes the Smart and the MB A-Class, both of which are distinctly not 'high end'. BMW has Mini and the 1-series. VAG has everything from the GOL (less than $10000 in Brazil) to Bugatti. That only is for cars and ignores everything else.

Simply, VAG and Daimler share parts and engineering through their entire range, with VAG even sharing engine parts between the tiny GOL and the Bugattis.

Tesla will soon have shared components from new Roadster to the Chinese and German smaller cars plus Semi and Cybertruck. With all of that will come significant scale economies and increasing model diversity. It is inevitable that once GF-3, GF-4 and GF-5 are up and running there will begin to be major iterations of existing models. Models S and X will have a while to wait perhaps but they will have new architecture to allow them to have cheaper and more flexible model enhancements as well as cheaper and better production processes.

I don't presume to speculate on timing, but the direction is both clear and inevitable.

With five years the Tesla automotive range will be inclusive of city cars to New Roadster plus several commercial vehicle variants. Were that not to be true why would there be design centers coming in China and Germany?

Just think of the implications of a growth rate in excess of 25% per annum.

Of course TE will have similar or higher growth rates with products and services quite different and broader than those of today.

Bluntly we are myopic if we fail to see the array of automotive products coming. FWIW, Tesla can make GOL to Bugatti competitors profitably, precisely because the most expensive basic components will be applicable at both extremes and everywhere in between. The chemistry will vary, so will motors...

Tesla have unique abilities to make a part using a new alloy etc. With more products, materials science (shared with SpaceX, possibly Boring Company and Neuralink!!!!!), experience, machines (gigapress, smaller ones as well probably) - their internal parts catalogue will be impressive. 'Catalogue Engineering' for Tesla will be better than anyone else's. Top tier engineers (tool makers) allow next tier engineers to quickly put designs together. Further cost reductions from volume/Wright's Law on components especially electronics.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Imagine "hoping for a lower price" during a technical event like an index inclusion

 

[BrownOuttaSpec]

I'm concerned - all the headlines for today on TD site...
better sell another 100 shares!

Yeah, and this article came out this morning as well:
U.S. highway safety agency investigating Tesla suspension complaints

Market is going to tank today Oh wait, up 3%

Edit: Changed to a cbs news link instead of electrek

 

[Brian121]

Alcohol is not suitable for me. so instead ... ...

 

[lafrisbee]

I was going to post that the last few months reminds of the time period in 2013 where we had multi-dag huge gap-ups and those enormous upticks after ERs, in which I made a small fortune trading options which almost paid for my Model S. So I looked up a quick stock price chart overview for all of TSLA's existence, thinking I was going to quickly see that sharp spike. But all those years, where we debated and sweated about 4-5% gains and losses in a day or in a week all just looks like nothing compared to what has happened in 2020. It's important to not get ahead of one self and remain level headed, but zooming out like this is a humbling experience.

View attachment 612272

reality would be the chart in terms of Percentage.....

 

[Unpilot]

Yeah, and this article came out this morning as well: Tesla is now under NHTSA scrutiny over Model S/X suspension after disputing recall in China - Electrek

Market is going to tank today Oh wait, up 3%

It's pretty funny...it does move the market....but then those shares are grabbed up so fast we go right back up!

 

[JRP3]

OT:

For those interested in the claimed main competition for batteries to TSLA, which will probably not start selling actual solid state batteries until 2024, the reverse merger is official and QuantumScape is now trading as QS. VW banking on them big time.

Hope they succeed...plenty of market out there for all batteries.

Came out of the gate strong first day of trading, +32% right now. The JB-Tesla connection is powerful, pulling everything up with it

 

[JRP3]

Yeah, and this article came out this morning as well:
U.S. highway safety agency investigating Tesla suspension complaints

Market is going to tank today Oh wait, up 3%

How many of those complaints are from Keef?