Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

Tesla (TSLA) turns to Cybertruck reservation holders in delivery push

Makes sense to try to convert Cybertruck reservation holders to customers earlier.

TL;dr Cybertruck is still at least 1 year a way. Tesla is trying to get reservation holders into S3XY in the meantime to increase sales in the meantime.

I've seen more than a few people in the CT groups that have done exactly this after actually test driving a Tesla.

 

[ZsoZso]

Why would anyone be selling right now? Yesterday I can understand, with some uncertainty around the S&P announcement. But today? Are the current sellers afraid that it will take too long for the index funds buying to start - 2 weeks - and the SP will not hold up? Or are we at the mercy of shenigans again?

Must be all those millennials with ADHD and a Robinhood account thinking 2 weeks is a looong time and they can make a quick buck somewhere else and then still jump back into TSLA to catch the big game.

 

[Mo City]

She (and ARK) have been promoting that idea for a while, now. It doesn’t seem to get much traction from Tesla.

It won't get much traction until Tesla does it.

I like the idea, believe it will happen and think TSLA will jump on the news because it signals robotaxis are soon to come.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Boy....Gordo, Toilet boy, Chanos, Einhorn have all been pretty quiet lately...wonder why?

 

[Bet TSLA]

I don't think it is an education problem (my 0.02). I think there is some behind-the-scenes money being moved around to "incentivize" people to write tripe like this.

I don't believe this sort of stupidity is due to nefarious incentivizing. There are many people who think that vehicles should (obviously) be as safe as possible. It doesn't matter to them if Teslas are the safest vehicles on the road -- if they could be safer then they should be. They ignore cost, both express and implicit. They ignore obvious implications, like the pace of progress. They even ignore evidence, like Tesla's quarterly safety reports.

This was just one more thing along those lines.

Me, I think it's obvious that killing and maiming people along the way is the right thing to do. So long as you are doing less of it than the other guys, your approach is a win. The truth is that what we have out on the roads is human engineered and executed carnage, but we've gotten used to it. Less of that is a good thing, and the people who are advocating for none at all right now are just stupid, useful idiots to the nefarious.

 

[YAWD]

People going into NIO, XPEV and all the other Chinese EVs, because they missed out on Tesla. Those stocks are filled with people who have no conviction in the companies they invested in and will dump at the first sign of trouble.
Long-term, any EV company not named Tesla will be bankrupt or an extremely niche player. FSD will shrink car sales dramatically, so total addressable market for these companies is very small.

What does this board think of shorting NIO ? It seems to me that at best they will remain a expensive automaker in the Model X category with low margins. They can't be worth $60B

 

[Zero CO2]

I enjoy reading all these predictions and conjecture about crazy run ups/dips and bubbles… But I prefer to just focus on the fundamentals. For most of us long term holders I really just don’t think any of this stuff matters.

I’m grateful I have the shares I have, and I know that many here feel the same. No chance I’d sell any shares on the suspicion or hope for a dip. Unless (or until) something fundamentally changes with this business; the overall trajectory is up. I’m not risking any of my precious ownership stake.
The more the MM’s act greedy, the better off us high conviction HODLers will be.

agree ...what you should be doing as an " investor" is getting dry powder ready for a possible post S&P 500 inclusion dip .... especially in taxable accounts .... IRA are different story... there you might try your hand at timing the top and dip but the tough decision is when to sell the top and buy back in .... I avoid those decisions/stress by HODLing.... accumulate more shares if the dip comes ... and if it doesnt then wait ... there will be a dip ...must be ready for it with dry powder... now i need to take my own advice and free up some cash ....

 

[bkp_duke]

I don't believe this sort of stupidity is due to nefarious incentivizing. There are many people who think that vehicles should (obviously) be as safe as possible. It doesn't matter to them if Teslas are the safest vehicles on the road -- if they could be safer then they should be. They ignore cost, both express and implicit. They ignore obvious implications, like the pace of progress. They even ignore evidence, like Tesla's quarterly safety reports.

This was just one more thing along those lines.

Me, I think it's obvious that killing and maiming people along the way is the right thing to do. So long as you are doing less of it than the other guys, your approach is a win. The truth is that what we have out on the roads is human engineered and executed carnage, but we've gotten used to it. Less of that is a good thing, and the people who are advocating for none at all right now are just stupid, useful idiots to the nefarious.

I just don't buy the "stupidity" argument in this case. That argument has validity when it is a twitter post, possibly a short blog post, etc.

But this guy goes WAY down the rabbit hole with a very very long article, and makes what appear to be rational arguments, only to ignore key pieces of evidence (autopilot has a lower accident ratio than a human driver) and come to the wrong conclusion.

Can I prove it? No, but I still stand by my assertion that this smells like a paid shill out to tarnish Tesla's reputation.

 

[bkp_duke]

What does this board think of shorting NIO ? It seems to me that at best they will remain a expensive automaker in the Model X category with low margins. They can't be worth $60B

The risk in that, IMO, is that NIO is backed by the Chinese government. Just like other gov-backed companies in China, they only "fail" when the Chinese government says it is time for them to fail.

 

[WarpedOne]

Shorting ... you start with X amount of money and short some company and win. Now you have 2x.
Or you buy TSLA, HODL and win. Now you have >10x.

Your money, your call.

 

[Navin]

FYI. Talk today w/Elon Musk
Elon Musk im Talk bei Axel Springer - In fünf Jahren gibt es elektrische Jets

check out second video to hear English.

 

[NicoV]

QS is interesting because of JB's involvement and potential upside if they pull it off, OTOH if they were that spectacular, Tesla would have bought them a long time ago. Maybe Tesla did try to buy them but were rebuffed, I don't know, but the fact that Tesla didn't acquire them gives me pause.

I just bought a small amount of QS as an insurance to the fact that maybe they can deliver what they claim to build. My only justification is that JB is on the board.
I may add to that position if it goes down significantly.
If they can build what they claim, the stock will go x10 easily, maybe even x100. It’s like a cheap LEAP, but without expiration date (until bankcrupcy).

 

[FS_FRA]

IIRC in Germany it's only enforceable at all if they provide at least 50% of his total compensation during the non-compete period- which sounds kinda expensive to be worth having him sit around at home but VW pisses away $ all the time so maybe.....AFAIK the max period is 24 months.

Spoiler: German Non-Competes for CEOs

Non-compete while active as a CEO is covered in §88 of the German Companies Act. Post-contractual non-competes are very tricky in Germany:

In practice, the idea prevails that post-contractual non-competes are only effective if the manager receives a compensation payment for the duration of the validity of the non-competition clause. This compensation finds a legal basis in §§ 74 ff HGB (German commercial code), which is aimed at commercial agents and their protection in labour law.
However, the courts deny the application of Sections 74 HGB to the executive board of a stock corporation (so the CEO).

In other words: Unless otherwise agreed, post-contractual non-competition clauses are in principle also effective without compensation payment.

I think we can safely assume that Diess has a clause in his contract that pays him royally for his non-compete.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I still just don’t understand the “day trader” mindset. To me, it’s like those on the highway who weave in and out of lanes trying to get to their destination 4 minutes faster than the person who just stays in their lane, moving with the flow of traffic, patiently waiting through traffic jams/road blocks/detours. I understand if someone needs the money, but why invest in the market if you aren’t willing to hold long term? I’m always so baffled with the “get rich quick” and the “gambling” mentality
I invested in TSLA because I truly loved the company, products, and mission. Whether the SP rises or falls everyday, is not really my ultimate concern because I know in the end, we will get to our destination.

Day traders are not gamblers.
Day traders are not investors.
Day traders do not have a get-rich-quick mentality.

The sum of stock price increases during a given period is much greater than increase in price during that period.

Day traders make a job (literally) out of trying to profit from the sum of increases instead of the long-term trend.
Day traders' need higher returns because they have to pay for their living expenses.

The weavers in traffic aren't the day traders. The weavers are impatient longs. The day traders are the people working irregular hours from home.

 

[StealthP3D]

If you read my post, I said it didn't pass the sniff test. That's not evidence, just an observation that if you go through all his points and data, he comes to the wrong conclusion (someone here already pointed this out as well).

I totally agree that he doesn't present enough information to come to the conclusions he did. I just don't see any evidence that he was spreading FUD for the purpose of misleading people. Part of the problem is that some of the information he presents is FUD, in and of itself. FUD is especially effective when it is ignorantly spread as non-FUD.

 

[Dare]

The risk in that, IMO, is that NIO is backed by the Chinese government. Just like other gov-backed companies in China, they only "fail" when the Chinese government says it is time for them to fail.

I held a decent amount of NIO (maybe 10k) at about $4/share earlier this year. But after the Luckin coffee fiasco I bailed.

 

[JusRelax]

I just don't buy the "stupidity" argument in this case. That argument has validity when it is a twitter post, possibly a short blog post, etc.

But this guy goes WAY down the rabbit hole with a very very long article, and makes what appear to be rational arguments, only to ignore key pieces of evidence (autopilot has a lower accident ratio than a human driver) and come to the wrong conclusion.

Can I prove it? No, but I still stand by my assertion that this smells like a paid shill out to tarnish Tesla's reputation.

We're talking about Niedermayer, right?

Some background on Niedermayer - He hosts the Autonocast podcast along with Alex Roy. Autonocast

Both of them disagree with the approach Tesla is taking to FSD, especially with using the FSD Beta program and unpaid, unprofessional test drivers to help FSD to learn. I don't know if they are personally shorting TSLA, but they are highly regarded in TSLAQ circles, and have consistent conversations with the TSLAQ crowd.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Day traders are not gamblers.
Day traders are not investors.
Day traders do not have a get-rich-quick mentality.

The sum of stock price increases during a given period is much greater than increase in price during that period.

Day traders make a job (literally) out of trying to profit from the sum of increases instead of the long-term trend.
Day traders' need higher returns because they have to pay for their living expenses.

Day traders almost all lose all their money, like most gamblers. And yes, they usually imagine they can make a living while having fun and getting an adrenaline rush. Of course they're almost all wrong, but they like gambling that they might be one of the few who can win. It's a mindset. Self-destructive for most because it's an addictive behavior.

Like all gamblers who make money, there's always an implicit "so far".

TSLA is a great stock to day trade because it's so volatile. I think we have very few day traders here; pretty much everybody claims to maintain a "core position" and just trades around the edges, some more and some less. And most who trade are actually swing traders -- to be a true day trader you have to close all your positions every day.

 

[phantasms]

We're talking about Niedermayer, right?

Some background on Niedermayer - He hosts the Autonocast podcast along with Alex Roy. Autonocast

Both of them disagree with the approach Tesla is taking to FSD, especially with using the FSD Beta program and unpaid, unprofessional test drivers to help FSD to learn. I don't know if they are personally shorting TSLA, but they are highly regarded in TSLAQ circles, and have consistent conversations with the TSLAQ crowd.

Alex Roy is a personal friend. He’s not stupid enough to be a Tesla short.

 

[StealthP3D]

QS is interesting because of JB's involvement and potential upside if they pull it off, OTOH if they were that spectacular, Tesla would have bought them a long time ago. Maybe Tesla did try to buy them but were rebuffed, I don't know, but the fact that Tesla didn't acquire them gives me pause.

Tesla only acquires companies that can start adding value right away. QS is years from commercialization (if ever). And guess who will likely get first crack at any products they might bring to market?