Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[friit]

I can assure you that this shipment is definitely nor for Lithuania. Tesla does not sell vehicles here. Also not a single supercharger or service center Plate numbers are LT just because there are quite a few Lithuanian companies transporting Teslas around Europe.

While it was fun to cheer Tesla's expansion to Iceland, a comparatively small market, it has been excruciating seeing Tesla's expansion halted here in the Baltics. Tesla's "opening soon" superchargers have been in limbo for nearly 4 years and no service centers in sight. Although I did hear from a Tesla rep in Helsinki this August that Tallinn should be getting a center "soon". Here's hoping.

 

[generalenthu]

Do you think seeing the imbalance number will give an edge to watching the ticker at Friday close? Or will the effects of an imbalance be borne out so quickly as to not matter?

Going by a video that was posted a few days ago of a couple of traders trading the imbalance, I would definitely say it is possible to get the direction from the imbalance. Whether you can make up your mind and move is of course something only you can figure out.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Going by a video that was posted a few days ago of a couple of traders trading the imbalance, I would definitely say it is possible to get the direction from the imbalance. Whether you can make up your mind and move is of course something only you can figure out.

Many of us cannot see this imbalance number, would it be possible for you or someone to report that number for us at relevant intervals this week? Would greatly appreciate if so.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Yes, CRSP is my 2nd largest position, after TSLA of course. I bought it in Feb. of this year. I also have a smallish position in ARKG from last year but CRSP has been making it look like a laggard! CRSP recently moved from position 3 or 4 of ARKG to #1 conviction. You know what happened to the #1 conviction of ARKK and ARKQ! Cathie Wood is becoming the new Oracle of Wall Street. She still has a long way to go to prove herself but she is already becoming the most influential disruptor in the financial world. The number of dollars under her management and the number of people who eagerly listen to everything she says has simply exploded this year!

This is relevant to Tesla because she is, by far, the biggest and most credible voice for Tesla in the financial world. Primarily for two reasons:

1) She was the most bullish person on TSLA (who actually got mainstream airtime) before TSLA started rising in 2019. They actually invited her on so they could snicker behind her back at the "silly, dreamy-eyed woman" and her sky-high price targets. This just cracks me up!

2) The highest conviction picks in her funds have driven those funds to outperform all others. Obviously, this was not due to just "being lucky" on Tesla. It's due to actual research of the companies under consideration by people who have actual expertise with the underlying subject matter. Who woulda thunk that's how you do it?

The reason I find this so funny is because it's egg on the face of the very kind of people I despise on Wall Street and the financial media, most of them chauvinistic bigots.

The thing that is killing me is that ARK is so bullish on BitCoin. I literally do not know what to think about BC, but given their track record on TSLA and CRSP...

 

[generalenthu]

Many of us cannot see this imbalance number, would it be possible for you or someone to report that number for us at relevant intervals this week? Would greatly appreciate if so.

Not sure if you're asking in jest, but the relevant interval is sub minute. I don't think anyone can update you for it to be useful. If you really care about that number, it should be easy to subscribe either with your broker or directly on NASDAQ.

 

[mekberg]

The thing that is killing me is that ARK is so bullish on BitCoin. I literally do not know what to think about BC, but given their track record on TSLA and CRSP...

You should really read their white papers on Bitcoin.


White Papers Listing - ARK Invest

 

[Discoducky]

You should really read their white papers on Bitcoin.


White Papers Listing - ARK Invest

Love the crypto and the discussion goes here: Cryptocurrency and Blockchain Discussion Thread

And Cathy!

 

[Prunesquallor]

 

[Discoducky]

Well, the first one in his list is a mutual fund and not an ETF, so they don't have to post anything current about it. Vanguard does have an equivalent ETF, VOO, but I looked and couldn't find current holding/trading information. (Their site lists holdings as of 10/31/2020.) So while he gets some things right, he makes significant screw-ups as well...

Maybe my Google-fu is weak today and I just couldn't find it.

Edit: I have identified these so far:

• SPY: Excel: Daily (ssga.com) or SPY: SPDR® S&P 500® ETF Trust (ssga.com)
  
• VOO: VOO - Vanguard S&P 500 ETF | Vanguard
• IVV: iShares Core S&P 500 ETF | IVV

So all indexed funds have to be equal or better weight by Friday 12/18 or by Monday opening bell?

And then how about benchmarked funds? Is that per their own guidelines and an average of like 5 business days?

 

[Prunesquallor]

You should really read their white papers on Bitcoin.


White Papers Listing - ARK Invest

I did. It was informative, but the mechanics were still confusing to me.

 

[SOULPEDL]

+1 delivery complete in Az today. She's a real beauty!

Build quality excellent - no sign of EOY rush and arrived sooner than expected. Smooth, touchless process. Only a very minor nick on the door trim (~2 mm). Frunk panel actually fits better than on our Model 3 and drives more solid overall. No regrets - get 'em while you still can I say.

Everything here tells me they got this 500K in the bag as rumored.

 

[MP3Mike]

So all indexed funds have to be equal or better weight by Friday 12/18 or by Monday opening bell?

And then how about benchmarked funds? Is that per their own guidelines and an average of like 5 business days?

No.

No. Yes, No.

 

[heltok]

Seems like Model Ys are being produced in China now:

 

[CanadaEV]

If it were practical for all the Index funds and some of the benchmarked funds to buy at the day of inclusion that's probably what most would do. But since they can't, at least not without causing the share price to go crazy, I imagine they will spread their buys around the inclusion date as much as their controlling documents will allow. I read Schwab's prospectus for SWPPX to not disallow the use of all kinds of financial instruments to help them achieve their goals of matching the Index. So I wouldn't completely rule out the possibility of the current (relatively) high prices having already priced in some or much of the inclusion.

Anything is possible and I don't have a good enough handle on it to want to speculate through this kind of inclusion with a stock like Tesla. Here's why: I think my long-standing "leg up" on the market (when it comes to TSLA) is one of fundamental knowledge and vision as to how Tesla's business will play out over the next several years. Not some inherent advantage of knowing better than the market where the share price will go in the short-term.

Considering this, the share price would have to spike pretty high for me to want to sell any shares. Even then, it would be more of a minor "portfolio rebalancing" than speculation. If this happened it would provide me with more cash in the event that TSLA and the markets went into a major correction and I could buy more. But it wouldn't be a large enough of a sale for me to WISH for a major correction so I could have a good replacement price.

Yes, thanks for those reflections on the situation.
I think you've spoken for many here who know Tesla; certainly I relate to those thoughts.

Confidence in how Tesla is likely to continue conducting their business is probably easier than it looks to many who are dismayed at the stock valuation. Essentially, it is simply appreciating the honesty and determination of a company in which I see values that align so well with my own. Almost by definition, those who berate the company do so because those values are alien to them. They have no idea that by casting doubt they only enrich Tesla investors. They scare off the weak hands and leave the company to those with better understanding. Many of us with long term goals strengthen Tesla with investor stability.

Yes, it is difficult to know what machinations the index and benchmarking funds might have up their sleeves - I agree that not knowing makes it dangerous to speculate. Even though I'm a long term investor with Tesla since 2015, I am prepared to take a hard look at valuations as this week draws to a close. Musk can be wily, but he may also be fully genuine when he has said several times the stock is overvalued. Some re-balancing might be worthwhile.
.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Here’s a random thought: We know MMs like citadel have owned more than 5% of TSLA. What is stopping them from running the price up next week, spike IV, sell lots of call options and then dump all of their shares to S&P at a pre negotiated price on Sep18th? You get a great price on your shares and you kill all the options for the week of Dec 24th. I haven’t thought this through yet but would love for someone to poke holes in this theory.

Citadel holds shares to hedge options contracts they've facilitated. They can't just play with these in any way they like. We'll DEFINITELY see some pushdown after inclusion, but their impact will be limited. Even more limited that today(12/14) for instance.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Musk can be wily, but he may also be fully genuine when he has said several times the stock is overvalued.

Never said that. Only that the price is too high. Fixed that with a split.

It seems to be the case that even on this one thread every false story has to be debunked fifty times.

 

[MP3Mike]

There are 445,000 contracts expiring Dec 18th and 155,000 more on Dec 24th. The highest open interest vol is at $700 for Dec 18th (36,822 contracts) and $660 for Dec 24th (13,144 contracts).

At the inclusion announcement there weren’t enough call contracts to cover the shares needed by by S&P matching funds, but now it looks like there are.

How do you figure? That only accounts for ~60M shares, and they need at least 115M shares. So calls, if all executed, would only cover about half of the shares needed by the index funds. (And lots more likely needed by the benchmarked funds.)

 

[Artful Dodger]

EVTV Friday Show - Jack Rickard talking battery tech (retro segment from 2013):

"We dug out one of Jack's famous battery discussions, simply Brilliant! Featuring the A123 foil pouch, very relevant to solid state batteries. Jack Rickard was doing battery tech talk videos long before doing battery tech talk videos were cool." -- Dec 12, 2020​

Click image below to open video in a new tab. Recommend 1.25x speed. Run-time: 1hr12min



This is Uncle Jack in his prime, laying down the knowledge, as only Jack could. Good times!

FYI, A123 Systems (manufacturer of the pouch cell that Jack examines) is now a subsiduary of Wanxiang Group, one of the world's largest producers of LFP batteries, and a direct competitor to CATL (who supply the MiC LFP battery pack for Model 3 SR at Giga Shanghai).

Cheers!

 

[FireMedic]

Yes, thanks for those reflections on the situation.
I think you've spoken for many here who know Tesla; certainly I relate to those thoughts.

Confidence in how Tesla is likely to continue conducting their business is probably easier than it looks to many who are dismayed at the stock valuation. Essentially, it is simply appreciating the honesty and determination of a company in which I see values that align so well with my own. Almost by definition, those who berate the company do so because those values are alien to them. They have no idea that by casting doubt they only enrich Tesla investors. They scare off the weak hands and leave the company to those with better understanding. Many of us with long term goals strengthen Tesla with investor stability.

Yes, it is difficult to know what machinations the index and benchmarking funds might have up their sleeves - I agree that not knowing makes it dangerous to speculate. Even though I'm a long term investor with Tesla since 2015, I am prepared to take a hard look at valuations as this week draws to a close. Musk can be wily, but he may also be fully genuine when he has said several times the stock is overvalued. Some re-balancing might be worthwhile.
.

I don’t think he said overvalued. He said the stock price is high. Then a stock split came.

Now he says investors have put a lot of confidence in them with their hard earned money and we must CONTINUE to execute.

I’m HODL’ing to 2 trill or until I see a failure to execute. Daily stock price moves mean nothing to me but I’m only 40 yo so I have a long investment horizon. I believe this story has just begun. TSLA energy, insurance, and FSD haven’t even caught their stride yet.
That said, you do you; I’m sure someone would gladly buy your shares from you.

 

[Criscmt]

"I have a friend at Lucid and I told him that the Air is a fantastic car and they should be proud of it. Its just bad luck for them that it will be obsolete before it ever rolls out of the factory."
Basically stuff we already know

(Perhaps the right thread to continue on this topic. Taking the perspective of share of Tesla in TAM.)
I used to have the same view until I started seeing other EVs, particularly chinese EVs finding customers.
Lucid is perhaps the only player as of now who are good and efficiency, which influences the battery costs which influences the cost of the car. Sure scale is necessary, but going by where Nio and the likes I do see decent chance of someone like Lucid being able to get to scale. If Lucid can't make it, I wonder what does it take for any player besides Tesla and some of the very low budget cars in China, to make it.