Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[bkp_duke]

So after reading and not understanding much about the whole inclusion timing.
My guess is tomorrow should see some volume come in.....right?

It's like we're all driving around trying to find Unicorns, right?

Or a long road trip, with the kids. "Are we there yet? Are we there yet?"

 

[Singuy]

So after reading and not understanding much about the whole inclusion timing.
My guess is tomorrow should see some volume come in.....right?

Since we are all getting played.
We should see Tsla to crash the next 6 trading days and then spike up just to screw those put holders who is betting on Tsla dropping after inclusion. Basically exactly opposite of what people thought will happen.

Maybe explains why GS sold all of Tsla's offerings all in one day.

 

[MP3Mike]

VOO update for today shows that they have not yet purchased any TSLA.

 

[Todd Burch]

VOO update for today shows that they have not yet purchased any TSLA.

If the funds locked to the index haven't yet shown that they've purchased any TSLA, doesn't that indicate that the "capping" we're seeing is NOT the MMs selling their shares to those funds at a fixed price, but is instead likely a play to kill IV and hurt options plays?

 

[UnknownSoldier]

It's entirely possible that the inclusion was already completely front run and nothing actually will happen on Friday. Stranger things have happened. Sure would be a surprise to everyone if the stock price just stayed flat on Friday.

 

[vikings123]

I think it means that the MMs are fat pigs that will slaughter us retail little pigs by killing IV on calls the next 3 days, which destroys the value of the calls. This has been happening all this week, and is probably causing some bulls to sell their calls back at a loss, which is exactly what the MMs want.

More importantly the allegation there is that a large MM bought up shares causing this run-up to 650, will profit 60% by backdoor selling to funds, and will thus prevent a squeeze, in the process pocketing all the premiums from the vast amount of call buying that took place. Everyone wins except the small-time/retail speculator/trader.

If everyone thinks something will happen, they will figure out a way to alter the outcome. Remains to be seen but I have a hard time seeing why this WOULDN’T be the play for a MM.

I made a post earlier this week essentially hinting at this possibility. If we continue to trade in this 625-640 range I think you have to give this theory more weight. Again I could be wrong and this twitter guy could be talking nonsense.

Here’s a random thought: We know MMs like citadel have owned more than 5% of TSLA. What is stopping them from running the price up next week, spike IV, sell lots of call options and then dump all of their shares to S&P at a pre negotiated price on Sep18th? You get a great price on your shares and you kill all the options for the week of Dec 24th. I haven’t thought this through yet but would love for someone to poke holes in this theory.

 

[StealthP3D]

But like all things that are a Tesla's competitive advantage today, one by one they will all fall because Elon already predicted this and said Tesla's only competitive advantage in the future will be their manufacturing prowess.

Exactly:

"Moats are lame." - Elon Musk

 

[StealthP3D]

What does that even mean? It's barely comprehensible. Sounds like they became breathless just from typing.

I think it's a new form of Pig Latin.

 

[jhm]

This year I've been diversifying my portfolio. This is often ridiculed on this thread, but I need to report that it has been working well for me. I have managed to trim back my Tesla position everytime the value surges ahead. Tesla is now 69% of my portfolio. Most of the rest of my portfolio is very aggressive, a lot of solar names. Today while Tesla is down 1%, the other 31% of my portfolio is pushing the whole portfolio to gain 1%. Most days Tesla is not my fastest growing stock. Back when Tesla was in the mid-$300s, I had the flexibility to buy more Tesla. I'm still harvesting the gains that are in play right now. If we have a gusher soon, I'll be ready for it. If S&P inclusion is a flop, I'll be ready for that too. I'll just back the Cybertruck truck up and do it again.

Good luck everybody!

 

[MXWing]

10X Volume at the end compared to cumulative intraday.

Chairs unloaded at 633.25. Lots of them.

Only brightside is these are going to be off the market permanently, reducing float.

Questions are:

1.) How many more chair needed?
2.) What will the unloading prices be Wed/Thu/Fri and Mon/Tue/Wed next week? (Those are the windows right?)

 

[StealthP3D]

This year I've been diversifying my portfolio. This is often ridiculed on this thread, but I need to report that it has been working well for me.

I recommend you not put much weight into the dollar value reported each day for your portfolio. It's all about the quality of what it contains. Assuming you're in it for the long-haul.

 

[Duffer]

100% chance they won't be Tesla-compatible (without a Tesla supplied adapter). However, speed of implementation, quality of maintenance (I suspect set 'em and forget 'em), power available at each stall, and quantity of charging stalls at each location will play a big part. I don't expect miracles here. Worst case a Federal tax for every EV owner to pay for this.

Agreed.
1. Special Interests (Big Auto/Oil/Energy) will ensure that the chargers are not Tesla friendly.
2. The politicians will ensure that the Special Interests approved system is very friendly to their bank accounts.

 

[JBRR]

Not sure about IBKR, but the screenshot is from NASDAQ

well.. yeah.. I made the screenshot.

 

[woodisgood]

I made a post earlier this week essentially hinting at this possibility. If we continue to trade in this 625-640 range I think you have to give this theory more weight. Again I could be wrong and this twitter guy could be talking nonsense.

To me it’s one of those things where you can be pretty certain it’s how at least one MM would play it. All of them? And even if there’s a backdoor sale to funds, is it enough to make inclusion a total nothing-burger? Are all index funds buying in this manner? What about benchmark funds?

Again, the fact that S&P set this up for a single day and gave a 34 day lead up suggests to me they’re confident they can avoid a large squeeze/drop (their biggest concern) and that there was something they needed time to coordinate. We still may get a small squeeze, but it would probably be offset by speculators expecting something bigger bailing.

 

[EVortex]

It's entirely possible that the inclusion was already completely front run and nothing actually will happen on Friday. Stranger things have happened. Sure would be a surprise to everyone if the stock price just stayed flat on Friday.

No matter how much we try to predict the market, outcomes are never exactly what we thought they would be. Regardless of how inclusion plays out, we will likely be surprised to some degree.

 

[joh01652]

I am absolutely livid.

Wired funds to TDAmeritrade during/just after today's first freefall.

Then I watched the second freefall unfold. Placed a limit order, 100 shares @ $625 even -- very close to the amount I had wired.

Order executes. "Wow."

You SOLD 100 shares @ 625


What evidence re: selling under market rate?

Ouch. Yeah I've done that too. Making stupid, wholly-avoidable mistakes in a hurry is yet another reason why I now put limit orders in when I'm calm and not chasing the SP, and then go back into "Order Status" when I'm done placing the order to make sure the limit price, specified lots, buy/sell selection, and number of shares are correct.

Guess that's another reason for the running joke about how the best investors are dead investors...

 

[OrthoSurg]

More importantly the allegation there is that a large MM bought up shares causing this run-up to 650, will profit 60% by backdoor selling to funds, and will thus prevent a squeeze, in the process pocketing all the premiums from the vast amount of call buying that took place. Everyone wins except the small-time/retail speculator/trader.

If everyone thinks something will happen, they will figure out a way to alter the outcome. Remains to be seen but I have a hard time seeing why this WOULDN’T be the play for a MM.

That would be Devils in the market

 

[OrthoSurg]

This year I've been diversifying my portfolio. This is often ridiculed on this thread, but I need to report that it has been working well for me. I have managed to trim back my Tesla position everytime the value surges ahead. Tesla is now 69% of my portfolio. Most of the rest of my portfolio is very aggressive, a lot of solar names. Today while Tesla is down 1%, the other 31% of my portfolio is pushing the whole portfolio to gain 1%. Most days Tesla is not my fastest growing stock. Back when Tesla was in the mid-$300s, I had the flexibility to buy more Tesla. I'm still harvesting the gains that are in play right now. If we have a gusher soon, I'll be ready for it. If S&P inclusion is a flop, I'll be ready for that too. I'll just back the Cybertruck truck up and do it again.

Good luck everybody!

me too, I have a couple of interesting growth stocks and couple of dividend stocks.
I once thought of selling it all to go 100% TSLA but I did not want to get rich too fast

at least I have some green apple today to eat

 

[petit_bateau]

There's no way this many shares can exchange hands in after hours on Friday without the indexers having some kind of an agreement with another party to buy those shares in after hours at the closing price. But that being said, I also don't see why they would not arrange an agreement just like that in order to get the price they need to match the benchmark exactly.

They could only sign (agree) such an agreement during the 3 days prior (or the 3 days after). Before that it is possible ???? that they could discuss the possibility of such an agreement, but they could not sign to it. I rather suspect front-running has been going on for a veeeeery long time. I would like to be wrong mind you.

 

[Davidzhao365]

Still haven't figured out how to show this in IBKR. Can someone point the way?

I did some closing cross screenshots today minute by minute, help it helps?
https://twitter.com/davidzhao365/status/1338955560285216769?s=21