Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

I wonder if we are getting played

View attachment 617999

Procedure:

1. Buy TSLA
2. HODL longtime
3. Profit

#Advice

 

[wipster]

But who am I?

 

[JusRelax]

I don't know what that means, but I am now hungry for some bacon. Can anyone ELI5?

I think it means that the MMs are fat pigs that will slaughter us retail little pigs by killing IV on calls the next 3 days, which destroys the value of the calls. This has been happening all this week, and is probably causing some bulls to sell their calls back at a loss, which is exactly what the MMs want.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Just a quick reminder:

This is the last 10 minutes of open market before the aforementioned +/- 3 days inclusion buying period.

I'm beginning to believe we may be overthinking this.

 

[woodisgood]

I think it means that the MMs are fat pigs that will slaughter us retail little pigs by killing IV on calls the next 3 days, which destroys the value of the calls. This has been happening all this week, and is probably calling some bulls to sell their calls back at a loss, which is exactly what the MMs want.

More importantly the allegation there is that a large MM bought up shares causing this run-up to 650, will profit 60% by backdoor selling to funds, and will thus prevent a squeeze, in the process pocketing all the premiums from the vast amount of call buying that took place. Everyone wins except the small-time/retail speculator/trader.

If everyone thinks something will happen, they will figure out a way to alter the outcome. Remains to be seen but I have a hard time seeing why this WOULDN’T be the play for a MM.

 

[Zaxxon]

100% chance they won't be Tesla-compatible (without a Tesla supplied adapter). However, speed of implementation, quality of maintenance (I suspect set 'em and forget 'em), power available at each stall, and quantity of charging stalls at each location will play a big part. I don't expect miracles here.

But it can't really be a negative for Tesla, either. If any prospective CCS network sucks, it shows how much better the Supercharger network is. If the prospective CCS network is good, then Tesla magically releases a CCS adapter and thanks everyone for helping accelerate the transition to sustainable energy and transport.

 

[wipster]

That's all fine and dandy that Uncle Sam will cover the costs...but the question is how 'long' will this take to implement? The Tesla supercharger network will continue to expand while they twiddle their thumbs fighting on awarding contracts to construct this charging infrastructure.

And Tesla knows exactly where to put them as well! One of the smartest investments they ever made.

 

[bkp_duke]

But it can't really be a negative for Tesla, either. If any prospective CCS network sucks, it shows how much better the Supercharger network is. If the prospective CCS network is good, then Tesla magically releases a CCS adapter and thanks everyone for helping accelerate the transition to sustainable energy and transport.

Everyone keeps forgetting if the Gov builds it, the Gov will set pricing (instead of the market). This is where lobbyists from the FF industry will have a field day, to push charging prices up, so that "it's not cheaper to drive an EV" will become their mantra.

I would rather Tesla and independent companies like Electrify America build out networks, and compete with each other.

Too many pigs (middle men) will get fat if the Gov does the build-out.

 

[Unpilot]

More importantly the allegation there is that a large MM bought up shares causing this run-up to 650, will profit 60% by backdoor selling to funds, and will thus prevent a squeeze, in the process pocketing all the premiums from the vast amount of call buying that took place. Everyone wins except the small-time/retail speculator/trader.

If everyone thinks something will happen, they will figure out a way to alter the outcome. Remains to be seen but I have a hard time seeing why this WOULDN’T be the play for a MM.

What??!? That would never happen in a free and fair market!....O wait

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I wonder if we are getting played

There's about a 50/50 chance we're getting played, but 100% chance not nearly as played as big pig thinks. 50% chance big pig is wrong to the same degree he's always been wrong and we profit to an extreme.

There's never not risk!

 

[LYTRIDR]

I agree that this is not a net positive for Tesla as bears will use this to attack Tesla's competition is coming narrative.

However, the tesla superchargers are revenue generating assets. They might be more reliable, easier to use, faster charging, and cheaper to charge as it's an enclosed system. Also Tesla's cars should be compatible with government sponsored charging station, essentially doubling the charge spots as that advantage will always be there.

But like all things that are a Tesla's competitive advantage today, one by one they will all fall because Elon already predicted this and said Tesla's only competitive advantage in the future will be their manufacturing prowess.

I also wonder about the synergies created when Tesla has all the data from charge patterns, solar production, home usage with powerwalls, powerpacks located at the site of the supercharger. It seems to me that both the powerwalls and potentially the powerpacks at super and megachargers can not only be used as a virtual power plant, but also as a virtual power reservoir for arbitrage. The data that Tesla can accumulate not only from usage patterns but also from literally predicting the future based cars and trucks planned trips to the charge station seem to give Telsa a fairly valuable data source that is going to be readily monetized behind the scenes.

Autobidder software combined with these distributed resources that are controlled by Tesla directly give them next-level control and advantage that would not be available if the charging infrastructure were public.

 

[EVortex]

They shook the tree twice and your shares fell down!
Your Christmas tree has place for new decoration, should add 200 more next time it drops!

Hopefully not a Charlie Brown tree.

 

[StealthP3D]

Here we go ladies and gents. POWER HOUR?

They must have tried to power it with gasoline...

Maybe we need new spark plugs and injectors?

 

[JBRR]

Still haven't figured out how to show this in IBKR. Can someone point the way?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

They must have tried to power it with gasoline...

Maybe we need new spark plugs and injectors?

Need Nitrous...the big bottle....

 

[TheTalkingMule]

In for one 12/24 $700c @ $18.92 bringing my avg cost to $21.47 Will try to avg that a bit lower as the week progresses and opportunities appear.

I'm thinking we might see a pop AH or pre-market as more speculators rush in ahead of the +/-3 day window.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Everyone keeps forgetting if the Gov builds it, the Gov will set pricing (instead of the market). This is where lobbyists from the FF industry will have a field day, to push charging prices up, so that "it's not cheaper to drive and EV" will become their mantra.

I would rather Tesla and independent companies like Electrify America build out networks, and compete with each other.

Too many pigs (middle men) will get fat if the Gov does the build-out.

All depends on how the USG structures this. If they're smart, they'll specify functional needs (voltage, power, no. of chargers, location criteria, etc.), open this to bids and downselect to maybe around 5-10 winners. Let these start building out (with USG subsidies) and price competitively. If a couple go under, no big deal.

 

[Rb48888]

Still haven't figured out how to show this in IBKR. Can someone point the way?

Not sure about IBKR, but the screenshot is from NASDAQ

I wondered if we might have access to this real-time net order imbalance indicator, and was pleased to find that retail investors can subscribe for $15/month through data.nasdaq.com.

I wasn’t able to watch it report live this morning, but here’s what it shows from today’s opening cross.

View attachment 615318

Nasdaq also ranks the top 50 companies by imbalance and price variance, so perhaps in time we can see a bit of what’s normal vs. abnormal for our little company that could. (Today, after the opening cross, TSLA was 28th highest number of imbalance shares on the buy side)

I’m going to see if there’s anything I can learn, but thought I’d share the info for smarter minds here to pick apart.

Does anyone else find utility in knowing the imbalance at 4pm on 12/18? How might you use that info?

(Side Note: Site uses flash. Mac users on Catalina may need to access through Firefox, as Safari has disabled flash support.)

 

[Unpilot]

So after reading and not understanding much about the whole inclusion timing.
My guess is tomorrow should see some volume come in.....right?

 

[StealthP3D]

Actually, the other car makers perhaps have played it smart.

Uncle Sam will cover their costs fully and they can focus on Capexing product only whereby TSLA has been required to divert resources for their network.

I’m not convinced this is a net positive for TSLA stock price.

I agree, it doesn't help Tesla much, it helps their EV cohorts (assuming these are high-speed DC charging stations they are talking about, lol!). But I'll support anything that helps get stinky cars off the road. I want the future and I want it now!

As an added bonus (again, assuming they are high-speed DC chargers), they are unlikely to be located adjacent to Superchargers so this would greatly increase the density of high speed chargers Tesla's could use and reduce holiday congestion at Superchargers. Not that I've ever had to wait but I know some of you in CA and others in a few locales have!