Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Bet TSLA]

Meanwhile, my E*Trade account continues to provide no notion of how much my holdings are worth or what I get to keep. The options bid/ask numbers are mostly nonsensical. And surely since TSLA closed at 695, my 25 short 690 puts that expired today won't cause me to get 2500 shares put to me for $1.725M. Or will they? I guess I'll find out tomorrow. The pricing on NASDAQ's Tesla, Inc. Common Stock (TSLA) Option Chain certainly doesn't seem to reflect a 695 close at my strikes.

My TSLA options that expired today:
- short 690 puts
- short 670 puts
- short 610 puts
- long 680 call

Given a 695 close, all the short puts should expire worthless, and the call should be exercised. It's just a single call that I bought late today for $5 as an experiment, so I don't care too much either way. Losing $500 is what I expected, but I don't mind buying another 100 shares at 680.

Still in play:
- long 12/31 590 calls
- long 12/31 690 calls

The latter still require TSLA to go up some more by expiration to break even. But I can't tell what they're worth now due to the aforementioned nonsensical bid/ask pricing.

 

[Etna]

Cathie Wood today: Telsa has now 15 billion miles of real world driving collected data. Google the next closest has about 25 million. The winner in autonomous is going to have the most data and the highest quality data. That company right now is Tesla.

 

[FireMedic]

I did not sell any TSLA stock today. Feels like I’m in the minority. Congratulations again all!!

Nor did I. We’re just the quieter group me thinks.

I wagered lunch with one of my colleagues (another tesla long).

he guessed $570 and I $590. So I won...not bragging; but the $568 close debacle did muddle our results briefly. I Love Winning, and ATH closes.

 

[JusRelax]

Just caught that, you posted while I was furiously calculating away. Either way, whether it's 95% or 100%, both are much more than one might have wanted to conclude based on the size of the ~CLOSING CROSS~.

It does make me wonder if maybe the likes of IVV, SPY and VOO did get in their full orders (or the vast majority, as you said) at the $695 price. And maybe the gap (70m vs 130m) can be explained by smaller, less rigidly-tracking-error-sensitive funds may have accumulated through the day, AH, or even throughout next week.

For VOO in particular, I believe that Vanguard has an etf that currently has TSLA stock and, due to the nature of it only holding non-indexed funds, would have to sell that TSLA holding when it joins the S&P. Its possible that Vanguard sold these shares to VOO in a dark pool. If we assume that all index funds got an equivalent portion of their MOC order, it's likely that other funds need a higher percentage of TSLA stock than Vanguard does since they may not have gotten as many shares in a dark pool transaction.

 

[JRD1]

Meanwhile, my E*Trade account continues to provide no notion of how much my holdings are worth or what I get to keep. The options bid/ask numbers are mostly nonsensical. And surely since TSLA closed at 695, my 25 short 690 puts that expired today won't cause me to get 2500 shares put to me for $1.725M. Or will they? I guess I'll find out tomorrow. The pricing on NASDAQ's Tesla, Inc. Common Stock (TSLA) Option Chain certainly doesn't seem to reflect a 695 close at my strikes.

My TSLA options that expired today:
- short 690 puts
- short 670 puts
- short 610 puts
- long 680 call

Given a 695 close, all the short puts should expire worthless, and the call should be exercised. It's just a single call that I bought late today for $5 as an experiment, so I don't care too much either way. Losing $500 is what I expected, but I don't mind buying another 100 shares at 680.

Still in play:
- long 12/31 590 calls
- long 12/31 690 calls

The latter still require TSLA to go up some more by expiration to break even. But I can't tell what they're worth now due to the aforementioned nonsensical bid/ask pricing.

Use the last trade price instead.

 

[Highway2Heel]

I’m remodeling my house...and I needed extra cash...so I sold some of my beloved sports cards, instead of TSLA, to pay for the work.

HODL...I’m committed...

 

[sparcs]

I did not sell any TSLA stock today. Feels like I’m in the minority. Congratulations again all!!

Everyone's personal situation is different. Plus, some folks are up between 10x to 200x simply by holding shares. So selling a little here isn't necessarily a big deal.

 

[MP3Mike]

Use the last trade price instead.

If that is how the options were priced there could be some really unhappy call buyers come Monday. (If calls from 660 to 690 don't get executed and instead expire worthless unless they had called and asked to force execution.)

Edit: I think I got it right this time???

When looking on the NASDAQ and selecting to only show ITM options it stops listing calls at 650. If I list them all they are colored yellow through 690... So it seems mixed...

 

[Curt Renz]

AP - today: Volkswagen facing 'massive' shortage of electronic parts

Excerpt:

Volkswagen said Thursday it was facing production slowdowns due to a “massive” supply bottleneck caused by a shortage of semiconductor components for car electronics as global automobile markets bounce back from the pandemic sales slump.

 

[MXWing]

True, DIA is essentially that universe. Although it is something. Perhaps more meaningful is the prestige of being in the DJIA. That could influence active fund managers, stock analysts and bond rating services. Not to mention potential buyers of Tesla products.

The way the DJIA is structured with weighting by share price and Tesla's influence - it would be terrible to have it included.

A 7% down day on TSLA would tell the markets we just entered a depression.

Algobots would sell all holdings.

Dogs and cats living together!

 

[OrthoSurg]

Tesla is again forced to stop construction at Gigafactory Berlin due to missing $100 million deposit - Electrek

Wow, Tesla levered 5B in stocks offering, could Germans give their approbation for this incredible business proposal and stop begging for deposits. Elon must be pissed at all the politics and lobbying working against Tesla since the beginning. The opposite of Giga Texas.

 

[abasile]

I enjoy a run as much as the next guy, but... You left the ticker and were gone for the close? I could not have pulled away.

I decided that being out on our forest trails would be healthier than sitting in front of the ticker. After committing to a course of action, sometimes it’s best to step away and just let things play out.

 

[JRD1]

If that is how the options were priced there could be some really unhappy call buyers come Monday. (If calls from 660 to 690 don't executed and instead expire worthless.)

Edit: I think I got it right this time???

I’m talking strictly to get a rough value on your holdings - nothing to do with trading.

On thinly traded options I mostly ignore bid/ask and last trade because they’re all non-sensical. Unless the last trade was very recent. I’ve started to ignore the options changes overnight since they rarely reflect their true value.

My largest options positions are DITM for Jan 15 and should basically move dollar for dollar with the stock. Today’s end of trading prices are no where near that due to the bid/ask problem where the last trade values are closer to reality.

 

[lascavarian]

Use the last trade price instead.

It is annoying. Some DITM LEAPS haven’t traded for days. I’ve made some calculated guesses based on yesterday’s account valuation. Happy to have such annoyances of course. What a story Tesla has been this year.

 

[capster]

I did not sell any TSLA stock today. Feels like I’m in the minority. Congratulations again all!!

I walked away from the cabin purchase today eating my earnest money.

Decided the shares I bought recently just make up for any dilution that has happened since I bought the bulk of my shares or that may happen in the nearish future.

All my shares are core shares. My only strategy is to buy and hold. Seems to have worked pretty well over the past 5 or 6 years.

Ditto on the congrats all!!

 

[StealthP3D]

Strange looking candles after hours...

Hmmmmm...Friday the 18 is officially the last day of Hanukkah. Maybe they are leftover Hanukkah candles?

 

[JRD1]

It is annoying. Some DITM LEAPS haven’t traded for days. I’ve made some calculated guesses based on yesterday’s account valuation. Happy to have such annoyances of course. What a story Tesla has been this year.

Yep - totally agree. Added a follow on msg with more detail.

Especially with the split that created strikes at unusual intervals, prices seem off more often than not.

edit: just logged on to my account to see if anything changed and the numbers are all completely different. One option that they said was down 43% is now up 12%. The down 43% was crazy when it should follow dollar for dollar. The up 12% is more realistic. And none of the ones I checked were at the midpoint of the bid/ask since all of the bids were 0. They also don’t match the last so not sure where they came up with the values.

 

[Curt Renz]

CNBC - 4 hours ago:

 

[StealthP3D]

Just a guess on my part, but isn’t tracking error something that these index funds manage over the course of a year? So why not put some in the bank with some alpha here, allowing for negatives in other situations.

That's exactly what they do when they can. All this talk about minimizing the tracking error is BS. They don't mind getting a good deal when it presents itself. They are risk adverse when it comes to potentially over-paying.

 

[Curt Renz]

CNBC - 5 hours ago: