Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ByeByeJohnny]

Given the runup over the last year, It would be interesting to hear from others on the board how the gearing on their Tesla exposure has changed.

• For those trading options - Do you hold more or less compared to Dec-19?
• For those using leverage - have you increased or decreased it?

There is two obvious reasons I'm using much less leverage now. The first is that Tesla is up so much there is less upside. Don't get me wrong, still a lot of upside but less than 1-18 months ago. The other is that I now have 200% of what I was aiming for instead of 10%. So much less reason to be greedy and take unnecessary risks.

For long periods I've been about 50% shares. Now I'm 99% shares and anticipate staying there. Certainly not going over 10% options again that's for sure.

I've also been 99% of my net worth (not much when I started) in Tesla since summer of 2019.

My new goal is to buy a really nice apartment where I live. I can easily do this now but since I'm a contractor in the entertainment sector my income is very low now so I would have to pay it mostly from cash selling shares. Almost impossible to get a mortgage without income. So far 100% in Tesla shares hasn't been the greatest as security against a mortgage either but another doubling or so and that might change. Since I don't want to sell any shares I'm kinda stuck. I'm also so ready to buy a model Y when Berlin starts manufacturing them.

I do have some margin but just realized that has gone from 5% of my account value to not much more than 1%. I should probably get that raised now.

I'm well aware how incredible lucky I was to discover Tesla at just the right time. It's very unlikely I'm gonna be able to do it again with some other company. So yeah, gonna take much less risk from here. Still 99% Tesla though.

 

[ZeApelido]

The original Roaring 20's gave way to the Great Depression and the second of two World Wars. So let's uh not get too excited about this. Another World War would certainly be a nuclear exchange and that would instantly end our species.

 

[Dancing Lemur]

Given the runup over the last year, It would be interesting to hear from others on the board how the gearing on their Tesla exposure has changed.

• For those trading options - Do you hold more or less compared to Dec-19?
• For those using leverage - have you increased or decreased it?

My trading account was 50/50 calls and shares a year ago. Currently:

• 70% calls (all in 2021, strikes from 340-550)
• 20% shares
• 10% cash

I sold a tranche of nearer-term dated calls Thursday as we went up to $715, then bought stock at the end of the day at $700 (plus a few more calls for next week — can’t help myself). I probably would have converted more to shares, but wanted to defer some taxes.

I was short a batch of $700 calls last week, and though I could have closed them for a slight overall gain, I am greedy and wanted it all. So instead I rolled them out to next week at $765 for an extra $1.00 (so $100 a contract), and giving me another $6500/contract upside, but also giving me a short position I have to deal with.

I believe $780-800 is in play this week (but also that $620 is). If it ends up over $720 on Friday, I’ll probably be 80% shares and 20% calls. At $750 that’ll be 100% shares. I hope that happens.

Retirement Account:

• 70% stock
• 30% LEAPs (‘22-‘23 exp)

The goal of this account is to accumulate my “magic number” of shares that I expect will give us a nice 8-figure nest egg come 2031 when we can make use of it. It is not being contributed to any longer, so if it were all shares, the number of them would not change.

The LEAPs are to get just a bit of leverage over shares to help catch up to that magic number, albeit slowly. I also sell calls against them, whose proceeds goes directly into more shares. No changes here from last year, and it’ll be this way unless it goes to Mars.


I still see some near-term upside potential with all the positive catalysts this month, but I don’t think we’re getting another 50%, so am transitioning the trading account into shares as we hit points on the ladder.

It’s a good question - it’s always informative to see how others put their money where their mouths are (and the mouths here are plentiful).

 

[Christine69420]

The original Roaring 20's gave way to the Great Depression and the second of two World Wars. So let's uh not get too excited about this. Another World War would certainly be a nuclear exchange and that would instantly end our species.

I clicked on Disagree since there is no rule that a period of prosperity ends in a world war.

 

[winfield100]

Can someone point me to the 2021 thread? Next stop $270.

another 5:1 split !!! WhooHoo!! @jhm

izzat what you meant?

 

[Navin]

Goal achieved!!

Tesla Q4 2020 Vehicle Production & Deliveries | Tesla Investor Relations

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

 

[Nocturnal]

Tesla didn't deliver 500k! Nun demand. Call GoJo.

I clicked on Disagree since there is no rule that a period of prosperity ends in a world war.

Yeah, even if we do enter into a "roaring" 20s situation the global situation looks nothing like it did back in the 1920s.

 

[Green Pete]

Bullish sign

https://twitter.com/tesla/status/1345377367947005955?s=21

 

[phantasms]

I can see it now.

“Tesla fails to meet 2020 delivery goals” -Elekwhatever


In reality, truly amazing.


“Final numbers could vary by up to 0.5% or more”

I bet they pass 500k come final reporting.

 

[2daMoon]

Places like this forum, SMR Solving the Money Problem, Rob at Telsa Daily, and a few others have been a tremendous rudder which has kept me on course.

Reading historical anecdotes about how many of the most successful trading portfolios belong to traders who have died and, thus, ceased trading, has reinforced the value of HODL as a proven, successful strategy.

These truths as presented have carried my trading through the dips and crests where the wisdom and motivation behind this mindset would have been unlikely to manifest itself on its own over self-imposed FUD.

The fact that Tesla, and Elon more generally, are such a deviation from the norminal has to be taken into consideration as a catalyst as well. The rules have changed and only a few have realized how we stepped through the looking glass and embraced the new paradigm.

This led me to recall a quote from the late Dr. Hunter S. Thompson which seems quite appropriate here:

"When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro"​

Thanks to all the fellow weirdos who have turned pro and bolstered one another in this journey. It has been a fun ride so far.

 

[Chocochip]

Yup! Truly remarkable results considering the headwinds in 2020, and yet I expect to see headlines like “Tesla misses its projected deliveries target” and comments in the vein of “Haha, Tesla can’t do math, 499.5k smaller than 500k” etc.

For context: 450 (deliveries missing to reach the “target”) are less than 0.1% of 500k! For sure the media will mention the “miss” was 0.1%!

Big news here: profit guaranteed!

Edit: typo

 

[ammulder]

Interesting that the 3/Y production is 10K ahead of deliveries for the year. I think it's a good sign that they didn't have to sell down to the dust on the showroom floor to make their numbers... so they won't have to overproduce and take the corresponding profitability hit in seasonally-weak Q1 just to have demo cars and etc.

On the other hand, delivering more S/X than they produced does suggest they're drawing down inventory ahead of a refresh... fingers crossed!

 

[mongo]

Yup! Truly remarkable results considering the headwinds in 2020, and yet I expect to see headlines like “Tesla misses its projected deliveries target” and comments in the vein of “Haha, Tesla can’t do math, 499.5k smaller than 500k” etc.

Big news here: profit quaranteed!

In which case counter with:
They didn't say all the deliveries were new cars.

 

[dw4ngg]

Am I the only one that thinks these delivery results are underwhelming vs what was expected and stock dips some Monday? Speaking to the non eternally bullish/optimistic Tesla shareholders only...

 

[winfield100]

Actually it was the gasoline tank.

At the time it was infamous.
Seemingly off-topic this really illustrates how product safety standards have changed over the years. Nobody would design anything like that today, nor the swing-axle VW/Corvair, among others.
It is indeed bizarre to report every single Tesla fire and ignore thousands of ICE fires.
Every safety advance of Tesla counts. Another reason to HODL.

@jbcarioca
we owned one of them back in the day. It also had a light rear end, going around corners if you hit a tiny bump it would "hop" sideways.
It would also run on 3 cylinders though, spark plug died on one and we limped on Interstate 81 and 64 at 35 mph
you could gap the points with a matchbook cover. model A engine if i recall, since it's been ~45 years

 

[15Peter20]

Actually it was the gasoline tank.

At the time it was infamous.
Seemingly off-topic this really illustrates how product safety standards have changed over the years. Nobody would design anything like that today, nor the swing-axle VW/Corvair, among others.
It is indeed bizarre to report every single Tesla fire and ignore thousands of ICE fires.
Every safety advance of Tesla counts. Another reason to HODL.

I did forget to add a winky smiley thing. ;-) That one I think.

 

[HG Wells]

Now that we missed the goal, how much will the stock drop on monday ?

 

[Todd Burch]

Am I the only one that thinks these delivery results are underwhelming vs what was expected and stock dips some Monday? Speaking to the non eternally bullish/optimistic Tesla shareholders only...

They produced a few more than I expected and delivered a few less. IMO it really doesn’t matter.

We’ve seen TSLA drop on better than expected numbers and rise on worse than expected, so I won’t attempt to use logic to determine its direction short-term because such logic has failed me in the past.

IMO the numbers are close enough that it won’t matter for very long. It could be that the news about the Model Y orders in China far outshadows the few thousand less deliveries than some were expecting.

The rest of those cars will be delivered in a few days.

Oh, sorry. You said you were talking to the non-eternally bullish. I apologize.

 

[Green Pete]

Am I the only one that thinks these delivery results are underwhelming vs what was expected and stock dips some Monday? Speaking to the non eternally bullish/optimistic Tesla shareholders only...

I’m not underwhelmed by deliveries but I agree that the market will.... be the market. Which is not a compliment.