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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Interesting that the 3/Y production is 10K ahead of deliveries for the year. I think it's a good sign that they didn't have to sell down to the dust on the showroom floor to make their numbers... so they won't have to overproduce and take the corresponding profitability hit in seasonally-weak Q1 just to have demo cars and etc.

On the other hand, delivering more S/X than they produced does suggest they're drawing down inventory ahead of a refresh... fingers crossed!

Must be all those Giga Shanghai Model Y’s.
 
Am I the only one that thinks these delivery results are underwhelming vs what was expected and stock dips some Monday? Speaking to the non eternally bullish/optimistic Tesla shareholders only...

Now that we missed the goal, how much will the stock drop on monday ?

if there are idiots -- institutional or otherwise -- who want to sell me their shares at at a discount on Monday over these numbers, by all means, BRING IT ON.
 
From the press release

"Final numbers could vary by up to 0.5% or more."

This is standard every quarter. From memory the actual number has always been higher than first reported. Not by 0.5% but often by more than 0.1%.

I find it a bit odd that they announced this early if they were so close to 500k deliveries... if they had waited to sunday night or even monday morning, wouldn't it have been possible to get a more finalized number that would actually break 500k?

I almost want to say that they intentionally wanted to announce below 500k for whatever reason....
 
if there are idiots -- institutional or otherwise -- who want to sell me their shares at at a discount on Monday over these numbers, by all means, BRING IT ON.

I’m going to be polishing the buy button real good this weekend! 2021 rebalance into more TSLA commences Monday!!!

Over 36% of vehicles produced in one quarter for 2020 is a huge accomplishment! Congrats to everyone at Tesla and to the new owners!
 
I imagine even those who might have sold a large chunk, but not all of their position, at much lower prices might have a sickening feeling every time they think of TSLA and how much money they left on the table. And that's probably not conducive in terms of wanting to discuss TSLA day and night as the did previously when they still had their full TSLA position.

No regrets or sickening feeling here, given that I'm in the group you're referring to. Can't speak for anyone else, but rebalancing into other income-generating assets can be a perfectly rational decision even when bullish. It's a game of probabilities, and not everyone has the highest possible expected value as their primary objective. This is due to the non-linear utility of money that you'll be subject to if you're not yet wealthy.

I'd certainly be bummed if I sold after "merely" doubling or 10X-ing my holdings, but I obviously decided against that. Certainly sleep better at night these days, though :) And probably obsess a little less about the minutiae of Tesla's progress, which might have been part of your point.
 
TSLA's historical CAGR since IPO is 62%. In Sep 2020, Elon stated he thinks things are about to speed up.

Just redid the CAGR-since-IPO calculation for TSLA . It's now 64.2%

Given CAGR: 64.2%
Double check: 1.64217^10.5 = 182.76 X since IPO
(10.5 years from Jul 2, 2010 to Dec 31, 2020)​

Lol, Elon was right again! Things HAVE sped up since September... :D

Cheers!
 
This beat street consensus and let's not forget Covid is now at its peak which slows down deliveries for all manufacturers.

At the end it's not going to matter as stock rally is currently based on Tesla MEETING aggressive guide vs failing every single time. The more Tesla meets guide, the more confidence and weight the street will give to Tesla's future guides. The market is forward looking, and forward looking into Tesla's guide is on the magnitude of ridiculous when it comes to revenue. Now we just need earnings report to solidify the high and increasing margins we are all hoping for of 30+% and 2021 is in the bag.
 
I find it a bit odd that they announced this early if they were so close to 500k deliveries... if they had waited to sunday night or even monday morning, wouldn't it have been possible to get a more finalized number that would actually break 500k?

I almost want to say that they intentionally wanted to announce below 500k for whatever reason....
Well they saw this thread volume take a dump so why not spice up Saturday morning and release the numbers now?

In all seriousness, I think Tesla wanted to congratulate themselves so with this information they are going to be able to celebrate tonight with the great news!
 
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Interesting that the 3/Y production is 10K ahead of deliveries for the year. I think it's a good sign that they didn't have to sell down to the dust on the showroom floor to make their numbers... so they won't have to overproduce and take the corresponding profitability hit in seasonally-weak Q1 just to have demo cars and etc.

On the other hand, delivering more S/X than they produced does suggest they're drawing down inventory ahead of a refresh... fingers crossed!
Elon all but confirmed this. In response to Gali's question about if the S would be getting a horizonal screen and exterior change he simply said ";)".

edit, posted above. I have to admit, a refreshed S that feels like a 3 on the inside will make me look very hard at a plaid.