Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

Sorry if this has been posted already but toilet boy is now shorting ARK?
Stanphyl Capital December 2020: Short ARKK - ValueWalk

What a clown. That is perhaps the dumbest move of all time. Why doesn't he just short the S&P

This is funny. It's the first fund update I've seen that doesn't spend pages discussing what a terrible company Tesla is and how the payoff of his TSLA short position is imminent. In fact, he doesn't even mention TSLA!

But to answer your question, a clown has to act like a clown or he isn't a clown.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

You can keep track of the ETF based funds here: 199 ETFs with Tesla Inc (TSLA) exposure | ETF.com

For the mutual funds I think you have to wait for the quarterly 13F filings. (Which is 45 after the end of the quarter.) So in the middle of February we will find out what they did by the end of 2020, and then in the middle of May we will see what they did in Q1.

The next 13F is also when we will probably see what Berkshire bought and wanted to keep secret.

Is that tally current? Because, I thought the S&P 500 tracking funds needed to (cumulatively) own ~130 million shares? If they currently only own 55+ million, the buying isn't done yet then!

 

[Carl Raymond]

There is a fine difference I am not sure if I made it clear. I really am not so familiar with Lidar, only know that it has draw backs, such as it cannot penetrate fog, and will treat plastic bag as solid material.

But can anybody say that they know 100% of FSD in Tesla and that Lidar will add absolute no value to it down the road?

My point is not so much about whether Lidar is good or bad. My point is if Tesla decide to add Lidar later on, then it is a show of strength, not so much of an engineering failure.

Yes. 100% certain lidar adds no value (insofar as solving FSD).

You can’t solve FSD without solving vision. If you need lidar at that point, you’ve failed.

 

[MP3Mike]

Is that tally current? Because, I thought the S&P 500 tracking funds needed to (cumulatively) own ~130 million shares? If they currently only own 55+ million, the buying isn't done yet then!

That site only tracks ETFs, not mutual funds. (ETF data is available daily, while mutual fund data is only updated quarterly.)

And that isn't just S&P500 tracking funds, that is all ETFs that hold any Tesla.

 

[WarpedOne]

You can’t solve FSD without solving vision. If you need lidar at that point, you’ve failed.

Q.E.D.

 

[CyberDutchie]

One of the reason sited was that Lidar is too expensive. I don't think that's a good argument. Tesla and SpaceX is built on the strength of cutting costs. If it is an obstacle that kills Lidar, then how do you value Tesla 's relentless effort of cutting down battery's cost, which a lot of people believed that was one of the factors to make EV a no go to begin with.

To say Lidar is useless because it is too expensive fall into the same category.

Elon was asked if Lidar were free, would he use it? He answered “no”. I think we can put the Lidar topic to bed now.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Premarket is green so far. +$5

 

[CorneliusXX]

I'm a little alarmed by the singularity of focus on auto production when we are all aware that Tesla is much more than just an automaker. In the end, valuation depends upon revenue growth and profit margins and it doesn't care that much exactly where it comes from. Solar and energy has the ability to greatly increase revenues and FSD and auto-bidder has the ability to greatly transform profit margins.

So, it's really about batteries and software, more so than cars.

My comment was focused on CapEx spend - which I think will mostly be focused on cells and cars given the large amounts of equipment required to produce both. Maybe some is required to build out lines for storage products but as we have seen in the past - storage appears to be produced when there are more cells than vehicles they can produce. And there doesn't appear to be too much expensive equipment required to produce storage products (no casting or presses).

Solar roof capex appears to be relatively low as I have not heard of the cost being itemised in the financial statements, I've also not heard of any expensive equipment being required to produce them - but it is a bit of a black box at the moment.

My understanding regarding costs for FSD/autobidder is that these costs are mostly expensed as R&D or salaries in SG&A - but I'm not an accountant.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

That site only tracks ETFs, not mutual funds. (ETF data is available daily, while mutual fund data is only updated quarterly.)

And that isn't just S&P500 tracking funds, that is all ETFs that hold any Tesla.

I thought the S&P 500 tracking funds were all ETF's? I understand if the benchmarked funds aren't listed, but that's another ball of wax.

 

[Runarbt]

I don't really get Smeagol at all but that's not really relevant, the real question i have is who the hell are his investors and just how does he convince them to let him keep losing their money year after year?

His fund is all mama and papas money.

My guess - they finally caught on to his obsession with $tsla and forbid him to waste money on us anymore.

Hence - he figured, whats another way to short Tesla without shorting Tesla = ARK.

 

[EcoBruin]

Exane BNP Paribas downgrades to underperform and cuts price target to $340 from $385.

They also downgraded from outperform to neutral in Jan 2020.

https://twitter.com/livesquawk/status/1346341725640544256?s=21

 

[Mich]

When do we expect results from Geogia? This is big for the market, so also for tsla...

 

[Johan]

Here comes the MMD.

Exane BNP Paribas downgrades to underperform and cuts price target to $340 from $385.

They also downgraded from outperform to neutral in Jan 2020.
https://twitter.com/livesquawk/status/1346341725640544256?s=21
https://twitter.com/livesquawk/status/1346341725640544256?s=21

Obligatory PSA; he's really bad at his job:

 

[Johan]

I don't really get Smeagol at all but that's not really relevant, the real question i have is who the hell are his investors and just how does he convince them to let him keep losing their money year after year?

"For December 2020 the fund was up 1.1% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up 3.8% while the Russell 2000 was up 8.7%. For 2020 the fund finished down 11.5% while the S&P 500 was up 18.4% and the Russell 2000 was up 20.0%. Since inception on June 1, 2011 the fund is up 36.1% net while the S&P 500 is up 240.4% and the Russell 2000 is up 166.0%. Since inception the fund has compounded at 3.3% net annually vs 13.6% for the S&P 500 and 10.8% for the Russell 2000."

Marky Mark doing great over time. Not sure how happy Stanley and Phyllis are. LOL.

 

[FS_FRA]

Wow. Without counting, it looks like they plan to double the number of Superchargers in Germany (and likely everywhere else, didn´t check).

Frankfurt getting another two: Frankfurt North in Q1 2021 will be an urban SuC for sure, as it's located in the parking structure of a shopping mall

I LOVE IT

 

[CorneliusXX]

ICE mfgs are busy shutting themselves down for failing to transition to EVs. Tesla’s money is better spent on factories.

Ford’s market cap is 33B. That would build a lot of factories...

Strongly agree. I can't imagine much worse for Tesla than trying to buy a legacy OEM - think of all the pension obligations, political issues, union labour issues, legacy dealership issues and mountains of debt that need to be addressed - and in return Tesla would get a bunch of factories that can't make their products without significant upgrades and thousands of employees with the wrong skillset. All this would be a black hole for Elon's limited available attention time at the expense of his focus on product development. He's already mentioned that GigaBerlin is a time suck for him due to all the red tape.

Tesla also likely wouldn't get many of the synergies to compliment their business that a successful merger should have. There's no new supercharger network to pick up, little IP of value, no software expertise, no cell manufacturing expertise. They could get some skill in fit/finish and potentially driving dynamics if they bought a porsche or mercedes - but I'm sure Tesla can improve internally if it becomes a priority.

What would happen to Tesla's ability to sell directly to customers if they bought a company that has an established dealership network?

 

[CorneliusXX]

From Gary Black:
$8T S&P-bm’d active mgrs who hold no $TSLA (vs 1.7% bm) because they think it’s overpriced are the new shorts. At 1.7% bm, S&P active mgrs would need 190M shares = 25% of float. With TSLA already surging, buying begets more buying as active mgrs fear falling behind bms and peers.
https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1346265693021470720

Anyone here think that that the benchmarks still need to buy 25% of the float? Plus 6% shorts from the old shorts...

I just love $TSLA - the gift that keeps on giving.

I'm hoping that any remaining squeeze is delayed to the summer so that I can tax efficiently roll out my LEAPS (and leverage up). I was going to deleverage post inclusion but won't now as long as there is still a chance of a squeeze.

The continued buying pressure is unexpected to me after such a magnificent run. I didn't think the "infinity squeeze" was likely as it's an incredibly rare thing to occur in the market - but it's hard to find too many other compelling reasons for this sustained buying pressure post S&P inclusion - prehaps we are in an "infinity melt up" as the benchmark funds attempt to increase their positions in Tesla without jagging the price up too quickly.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Ray4Tesla says Giga Shanghai is estimating 523K (278K M3, 245K MY) for 2021. Includes 100K Model 3s for Europe.

https://twitter.com/ray4tesla/status/1346246398165962752

If this is realistic and 420K-450K is added for Fremont, 1M is clearly in play. Berlin and Austin would not need to contribute much.

Kelvin Yang mentioned that there is a cell shortage in China - so it could be an uphill battle to match production with capacity. This could potentially be mitigated if Tesla can sell enough MIC M3 SR+ using LFP cells from CATL - I haven't heard of any limitations on cell volume for LFP yet.

 

[Johan]

The continued buying pressure is unexpected to me after such a magnificent run. I didn't think the "infinity squeeze" was likely as it's an incredibly rare thing to occur in the market - but it's hard to find too many other compelling reasons for this sustained buying pressure post S&P inclusion - prehaps we are in an "infinity melt up" as the benchmark funds attempt to increase their positions in Tesla without jagging the price up too quickly.

All the way back to 2013-2014 when the extreme shorting of TSLA became apparent I've had this concept in my head of how with TSLA there are two opposing forces working on the stock price at the same time: the fundamentals i.e. the relentless growth of the company, the innovation, the growing market and market share, etc. which will push the price up while the shorting is keeping the price down.

Over time the upward pressure has of course superceeded the holding back force of shorting. However, for a long period the shorting did keep the growth in stock price "artificially low". Eventually all the factors combined made it impossible to keep TSLA down any longer and then it just erupted sort of like a pressure cooker blowing the lid off or a spring that has been compressed more and more until the thing pushing it down breaks.

So then the question becomes does the stock "over correct" upwards, sort of like when the lid on the pressure cooker flies up but then gravity pulls it down again, or like when the spring springs up in to the air followed by again settling, or are we in a "low gravity environment" where the momentum becomes more or less sustained? And with all this you have to keep in mind that the fundamental factors that has been the driving force of Tesla the company all along show no signs of slowing down. (I don't know the answer).

 

[WarpedOne]

So then the question becomes does the stock "over correct" upwards, sort of like when the lid on the pressure cooker flies up but then gravity pulls it down again, or like when the spring springs up in to the air followed by again settling, or are we in a "low gravity environment" where the momentum becomes more or less sustained?

Only time will tell.