Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Big Time]

This 30% news is absolutely amazing.

All my models will have to be redone!

 

[Discoducky]

That’s one way to get over 740. Let’s see if it sticks in the morning.

I expect we’ll continue to see analysts updating their PTs. And hopefully competing to see who can have the highest.

Anyone see Jonas full thoughts on the PT raise? I'm almost ready to put him back in the bull camp

 

[Remster32]

Morgan Stanley raises their price target from $540 to $810. Their 2030 volume goes from 3.8mm units to 5.2mm units.

Edit: Here are some of my key takeaways.

• 2021 deliveries is estimated at only 792k units, up from 778k units. 2022 deliveries are now 1.1mm units. 2023 deliveries rises to 1.7mm units, vs. 1.35mm previously.
  
• Bull case price target is now $1,232. This is assuming:
  • 8mm deliveries by 2030 at 20% EBITDA margins
  • Supplying 6.5mm EV powertrains to 3rd parties at $15k/unit at 20% EBITDA margins
  • Tesla Network Services with 20mm connected fleet at $200 ARPU
  • Plus other aspects including Tesla Energy, ridesharing and insurance
• They now estimate there will be 10 auto plants total by 2030. Three in the U.S., Europe and China, plus one in Southeast Asia.
• Exit 2030 GAAP EBITDA margin is 18.4%, which is rather close to the 17.7% margin they forecast for 2020. They point this out.
• Most of the valuation change is as a result of the increased 2030 volume. No changes to attach rates to FSD, Tesla Network Services, etc.
• Long-term CAGR for Tesla Energy is only up to 18% from 13% previously.

 

[LN1_Casey]

That’s one way to get over 740. Let’s see if it sticks in the morning.

I expect we’ll continue to see analysts updating their PTs. And hopefully competing to see who can have the highest.

Yeah, a lot of them just bumping to match closer to where the SP currently is.

There are a lot of calls at $750 for this week's expiration, almost 25k. Either they'll fall, or the SP will before Friday.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Yet another ATH after hours

 

[canoemore]

Benzinga - 4 minutes ago: Study Shows Tesla May Already Be Producing 8,000 Vehicles Per Week In China

Excerpt:

A research report from Industrial Securities in China, covered by @ray4tesla on Twitter, shows Giga Shanghai has already reached a production capacity of 8,000 vehicles per week. Of those numbers, 5,000 would be Model 3s, and 3,000 would be Model Ys, which started deliveries in China this month.

Holy smokes!

 

[ZeApelido]

It took quite a while for the site prep - filling in ponds, levelling, stabilizing the gumbo, geopiers, etc. Now the visible progress is really cooking.

Imagining a Giga Texas sized bowl of

 

[Dancing Lemur]

Anyone see Jonas full thoughts on the PT raise? I'm almost ready to put him back in the bull camp

In addition to the excerpt above, I saw that the bull case is $1,232 (!) in this link:
Tesla (TSLA) PT Raised to 'Street High' $810 at Morgan Stanley, Bull Case at $1,232

 

[Discoducky]

It's bouncing

In addition to the excerpt above, I saw that the bull case is $1,232 (!) in this link:
Tesla (TSLA) PT Raised to 'Street High' $810 at Morgan Stanley, Bull Case at $1,232

Oh, c'mon! Why not $1234! 2 measly doll hairs from awesome

Seriously, it is mind boggling how hight the PTs will be once Tesla delivers close to or even over 1M units in 2021. Adam is still super low for volume in 2030 IMHO.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Still climbing AH. This seems like some sort of capitulation. Not quite sure by whom, though...

 

[NicoV]

TSLA is green for 8 trading days in a row. That is very exceptional (not sure if this ever happened). Surely there must be some red days in the near future.

 

[Mike Smith]

In addition to the excerpt above, I saw that the bull case is $1,232 (!) in this link:
Tesla (TSLA) PT Raised to 'Street High' $810 at Morgan Stanley, Bull Case at $1,232

'Jonas raised 2030 volume to 5.2 million units versus 3.8 million units.'

.. because he had a good breakfast this morning?

 

[woodisgood]

AJ isn’t likely to raise his price targets for no reason. I believe MS has gotten a sniff of something coming down the pipeline.

Just my hunch, based on nothing.

Then again, might just be ARK’s report around the corner. Don’t want to be looking like you’re reacting to the outrageous report from the one true king most notorious TSLA analysts on the Street.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Tesla price target raised to $810 from $540 at Morgan Stanley TSLA - The Fly

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas raised the firm's price target on Tesla to $810 from $540 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares after updating his forecasts and long-term assumptions to account for the company's $5B capital raise and better than expected Q4 delivery growth of 61% year-over-year. The analyst, who has raised his 2030 volume forecast to 5.2M units from 3.8M units previously, tells investors that Tesla shares are "richly valued for a reason."

These clowns are just as clueless as ever. There's no reason to accord them any more respect now than before. If they are ever right it's pretty much an accident.

Of course now that they sometimes appear bullish, they get more attention around here. But their facts are still dubious and their reasoning is pathetic. Hey Adam, stay off my side! I'm not impressed that you are less wrong than Gordon Johnson. This time, anyway.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

View attachment 624680

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

AJ isn’t likely to raise his price targets for no reason. I believe MS has gotten a sniff of something coming down the pipeline.

Just my hunch, based on nothing.

Or they will be selling soon and want to pump the price up a bit first.

 

[Mike Smith]

AJ isn’t likely to raise his price targets for no reason. I believe MS has gotten a sniff of something coming down the pipeline.

Just my hunch, based on nothing.

I think MS went long and is manufacturing an active managed S&P index squeeze.

 

[Prunesquallor]

I just saw $750.

 

[H Mak]

And 1 million shares traded AH

 

[Brian121]

Tesla's China Model Y has 29.4% gross margin: report

Wow

The second part of the story that Model Y could dropped to RMB Yuan 260,000 sometimes serves as negative narratives in China.

Here we see price drop for high tech goods being natural and positive and first adopters accept it.

But in China the price drop actually cause a portion of the already purchasers to feel being cheated and they sometimes stage protest since it devalue their resale value and caused them to "lose face" since now the statue of their social standing is depreciated.

Also it is a FUD that opponents like to spread to discourage the purchase until later for reduced price. They call it "Deng deng dang", "the party of wait a little bit".

So just be aware of the different culture.

Actually the vice president for external affairs of Shanghai Giga, Tao Lin, large part of her job that outsiders can observe is to actively fight this price drop FUD.

And she sometimes joked that since Tesla does not have PR, so her jobs as head of the customer service has to double up as PR. similar to Elon's one man PR show.