It took quite a while for the site prep - filling in ponds, levelling, stabilizing the gumbo, geopiers, etc. Now the visible progress is really cooking.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
jhm
Well-Known Member
In an SEC filed statement, Uber claims that the global total addressable market (TAM) of taxis services is worth $5.7 trillion.
S-1
This should hive us some indication of the opportunity for Tesla's Robotaxi business. Of course Tesla will have a very deep share of the supply chain from building vehicles, powering, servicing, insuring, and of course, driving (via FSD).
Robotaxis will inevitably drive down the per mile revenue of taxis. This need not imply any shrinkage of the taxi TAM. Rather lower per mile cost will expand ridership. Total vehicle miles demanded simply needs to rise faster than per mile revenue for TAM to keep growing.
Here's to Tesla chasing another $5.7T market!
S-1
This should hive us some indication of the opportunity for Tesla's Robotaxi business. Of course Tesla will have a very deep share of the supply chain from building vehicles, powering, servicing, insuring, and of course, driving (via FSD).
Robotaxis will inevitably drive down the per mile revenue of taxis. This need not imply any shrinkage of the taxi TAM. Rather lower per mile cost will expand ridership. Total vehicle miles demanded simply needs to rise faster than per mile revenue for TAM to keep growing.
Here's to Tesla chasing another $5.7T market!
Spacep0d
Active Member
Indeed, and expanding further—the biggest pent-up demand I think is from young people who don't have homes, are getting into home ownership later than older generations if at all, are marrying later if at all (double income being less common even with cohabitation), have the most mate-competition in 'hook-up culture' (pair bonding less common, reduced are suffering schooling interruptions and job losses due to the pandemic, live in apartments with no good charging infrastructure (or with parents), have the most buying years ahead and the most love and optimism for Tesla along with the fewest irrational FUD issues based on decades of ICE-paradigm inculcation. Elon is a hero to any rational observer for his success, but I think he's a real-life Tony Stark for the younger set who are likely the most open-minded (as a large group) toward EVs and very interested in preventing further climate change by their own efforts.
This is pent-up demand that will need a serious charging solution and which will benefit both from Tesla's growing Supercharging network and L2 destination chargers at the places they might assemble....high school and colleges among them. Fast-charging at convenience stores would make a whole lot of sense in urban areas where apartment dwellers live and/or cannot as easily afford higher value housing with flagging hiring rates and wages not keeping up with the cost of living. I also think that new apartment construction will definitely include L2 charging and possibly Tesla or DC-3 charging...if the developers are savvy. This will attract EV-loving and green-conscious younger generations in droves.
This of course isn't limited to Tesla, but I think it holds true for younger generations as EVs become more affordable. The biggest objection, especially for non-Tesla EVs, is range anxiety and a lack of charging infrastructure. So, there's a huge niche here going forward.
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+ stealing revenue from other travel options like personal car ownership, trains, planes...
++ any incremental revenue from things like in car entertainment or Tesquilla vending machines built into vehicles
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Factchecking on Georgia Dem win benefits:
https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1346518548085145602
https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1346518548085145602
For comparison, Nikola's construction progress which started almost the same exact time as Tesla's.
Top comments from youtube
1. Looks like something two guys are building on the weekend
2. Looks like Trevor's grave <---lol.
Spacep0d
Active Member
It's a little ironic that human-caused climate change which benefits tremendously from wide EV-adoption (and their Gigafactories to produce them) is stymied by 'protected' species of snakes or lizards.
lafrisbee
Active Member
OK, as to TAM from Robotaxis...More Good ol Alabama Boy reckoning.
Slightly OT if you are Grumpy
I grew up in Montgomery AL in the 1960's and '70's. I didn't hear about Rosa Parks till after I left. But there was one thing that didn't make sense to me as a kid. Why weren't people riding the buses? They were cheap, like a dime cheap. But noone in the white neighborhood rode the bus anywhere...
Once I left and understood the Bus issue with Rosa Parks I put the two together. BUT I've never lived in a town where the buses were self-supporting. People just don't ride the bus unless they really have no option.
WTF is gonna happen when Governments start understanding they can use Robotaxis to provide transportation for the economically less fortunate?
It's gonna be some serious money BUT!? I thought about it for a second... People of economic means will want to "take the bus/Cybdertruck. How is that going to be worked in or out of the equation?
And dang. Somedays I think of just hoping the bus and seeing the area I live in just for the curiosity/amusement/understanding.
And school buses? Replaced by Tesla vehicles. I opted out of the school bus program in Montgomery because I would rather be at the mercy of a fellow juvenile delinquent to get to school than have to ride the bus circuit(45 minutes). Give me a chance to have a cybertrck pick me up with the other kids in the neighborhood and I would become an additional expense.
A great PLUS would be the freedom children would have when it came to being a part of after school activities. If you rode the bus, or lived far away then you couldn't investigate other school-based activities unless you could secure a ride on a regular basis. And that was often the case for something like The Debate Team, not a problem for the Football team... So a big win in that area. Yet still, an expense.
So many many situations/opportunities if Robotaxis take over the government workload.
Slightly OT if you are Grumpy
I grew up in Montgomery AL in the 1960's and '70's. I didn't hear about Rosa Parks till after I left. But there was one thing that didn't make sense to me as a kid. Why weren't people riding the buses? They were cheap, like a dime cheap. But noone in the white neighborhood rode the bus anywhere...
Once I left and understood the Bus issue with Rosa Parks I put the two together. BUT I've never lived in a town where the buses were self-supporting. People just don't ride the bus unless they really have no option.
WTF is gonna happen when Governments start understanding they can use Robotaxis to provide transportation for the economically less fortunate?
It's gonna be some serious money BUT!? I thought about it for a second... People of economic means will want to "take the bus/Cybdertruck. How is that going to be worked in or out of the equation?
And dang. Somedays I think of just hoping the bus and seeing the area I live in just for the curiosity/amusement/understanding.
And school buses? Replaced by Tesla vehicles. I opted out of the school bus program in Montgomery because I would rather be at the mercy of a fellow juvenile delinquent to get to school than have to ride the bus circuit(45 minutes). Give me a chance to have a cybertrck pick me up with the other kids in the neighborhood and I would become an additional expense.
A great PLUS would be the freedom children would have when it came to being a part of after school activities. If you rode the bus, or lived far away then you couldn't investigate other school-based activities unless you could secure a ride on a regular basis. And that was often the case for something like The Debate Team, not a problem for the Football team... So a big win in that area. Yet still, an expense.
So many many situations/opportunities if Robotaxis take over the government workload.
RH is sketchy but the UI is the best out there for beginners. Just don't let them join r/wallstreetbets
Yeah, but why are Panasonic/LG/CATL necessarily any faster than Tesla at getting 4680 cell production scaled? Perhaps the risk is lower if they don't use the dry electrode process, but I'm guessing they'll still need a fair bit of all new production equipment for a tabless cell in a new form factor, and they may have had less of a head start in planning for that size cell. Plus, Panasonic hasn't blown me away with their speed in the last few years -- though sometimes it seemed they were dragging their feet on purpose, so who knows?
I'm just not sure it's a given that third-parties will be ramped enough to supply, say, 300K vehicles worth of 4680s for Austin and Berlin in 2022. I'm not sure how to find that out, either.
My assumption is that they will be faster because it's an existing chemistry. Lots of unknowns but I can't imagine Elon is just hoping for the best. I wouldn't think Tesla would want to install the equipment in Berlin and Austin to build two different versions of vehicles, but risking an idle factory due to battery issues seems worse. Hopefully we learn more as the insides get built.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Yeah, that's the 'positive feedback loop' where warming causes faster warming, leading to tipping points in the climate system. A stable climate is all about energy equilibrium between the Sun (heat source), the land, ocean, atmosphere, and space (heat sink).
The most critical tipping point is the loss of the Arctic sea ice cover, which will cause an albedo flip. Right now, white sea ice reflects 90% of incoming solar insolation back into space. After the first summertime 'blue ocean' event in the Arctic, that energy balance is flipped as 90% of the sun's incoming energy will be absorbed by the dark ocean water.
Almost nobody outside of climate science circles is aware that Arctic sea ice largely floats on top of a relatively shallow layer (~150m) of colder, fresher seawater. The deeper layers come from the Atlantic and they are much saltier (which is why they sink) but also much warmer (like +4C).
The first Arctic hurricane that mixes up this surface lens of fresh water with the warmer, saltier deep layer will prevent the surface from refreezing. This nearly happened during the Summer of 2012. There's enough heat at depth (~2000m layer) to last through about 4 Arctic winters without refreezing if the fresh water lens goes (read about vertical overturning currents and heat transfer in seawater). SURPRISE!
I you not, this is why I am a TSLA investor. I own no other equities, nor do I plan to diversify. Acheiving meaningful ACTION on human causes of climate change is the reason I choose to post here now, instead of at Neven's Arctic Sea Ice blog and forum (where I have 10 years of comment history).
This is VERY REAL. The Arctic albedo flip is a one-way tipping point for the climate, and even going to net NEGATIVE CO2 emissions will not flip it back once Winter sea ice goes.
We are mostly oblivious to the very real threat faced by civilization; the disruption of the equable climate with which we have prospered over the past 10 thousand years. Once the Wintertime Arctic sea ice cover goes, it's not coming back during this millenium, and the climate (especially in N. Europe) will be forever altered.
We are rolling the dice with the worl'd dumbest experiment by delaying the switch to renewable energy, all for the (short-term) financial benefit of some fossil fools.
Sad. Mad. Time for change. It's unstoppable now, but can not come soon enough. We must work to ACCELERATE that inevitable change, both to prevent and to minimize future damage caused by our past use of fossil fuels. That's why I support Elon and the Mission:
"Tesla's mission is to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy."
Word.
It is mostly risk management and standizing on 4680 where possible.
LG/CATL/Panasonic can convert existing factories / lines rather than building new factories.
Last thing we heard from Elon was the Tesla 4680 ramp was making progress.
Without Tesla 4680 production volumes are constrained, it has to work.
Factory construction is moving fast, I take that as an optimistic sign.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Gimme some of that sweet, sweet sexy closing pushdown...
Nice to see the manipulators haven't left the building. It's been profitable having them around so far...
Nice to see the manipulators haven't left the building. It's been profitable having them around so far...
At the beginning of 2020, I thought to myself that I’d be happy if we were at $700 at the end of the year.
And, we were! Post-split! I guess I’m five times as happy!
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Krugerrand
Meow
Yep, those that disagreed with me saying a few weeks back I was betting Texas up and running before Berlin can kiss my cat.
woodisgood
Optimustic Pessimist
This will probably get moved or deleted for being OT so I’ll be brief.
They would probably like RH’s interface best, whereas other brokerages will feel clunky or overly complicated at the beginning. It’s simple and fun, and easy to set up and get going.
From a practical perspective, the big downsides that remain on RH are a lack of joint or trust-owned accounts (individuals only; could be a deal-breaker depending on the age of your kids and how you want to set things up), and a lack of being able to name beneficiaries. These features have been promised for some time but not materialized yet.
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