Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Bet TSLA]

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Don't get your hopes up. TSLA goes down on good news.

 

[gaswalla]

Seems like TSLA and BTC have been tracking together... BTC is down quite a bit over the weekend. thoughts?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Don't get your hopes up. TSLA goes down on good news.

I no longer expect TSLA to move on news for the medium term. We're in a mode where forced buying is dictating price, not anything we folk or banks think about products or earnings or guidance.

The are fewer sellers than required for funds to accumulate in peace, this madness won't end until they're done. And even then there's a backdrop of stimulus. I just hope when my shares get called away I'm somewhere in shouting distance of the peak. That's how it feels anyway. Variations of FOMO run the show for now, then some day we'll probably fall back sharply.

 

[hacer]

That's certainly possible. But it sounds like you are saying you protect your CC with a call with a later date. If so, that has it's own downsides that I won't go into here because there is a forum for discussing options strategies.

I only comment here after someone has let the cat out of the bag and brought options into the investor's roundtable thread. I don't think it's right that a beginning investor sees people claiming they are making "free money" without seeing any rebuttal. The real solution is to not bring options strategies into the investor's thread in the first place and that way I don't have to point out the money is never really "free" or risk-free which is rarely mentioned.

Buying stocks is neither free nor risk free either. I guess we should discourage talking about buying or selling stocks too. You've challenged a large number of posts about options that never once said the gains were free or risk free. If it's impossible to make consistent returns with options there would not exist market makers for options. Yet there they are.

 

[Singuy]

I no longer expect TSLA to move on news for the medium term. We're in a mode where forced buying is dictating price, not anything we folk or banks think about products or earnings or guidance.

The are fewer sellers than required for funds to accumulate in peace, this madness won't end until they're done. And even then there's a backdrop of stimulus. I just hope when my shares get called away I'm somewhere in shouting distance of the peak. That's how it feels anyway. Variations of FOMO run the show for now, then some day we'll probably fall back sharply.

I feel like Tesla have been moving on news. 3 major bank upgrades, Tesla deliveries, and democrats taking the government.

 

[MC3OZ]

Buying stocks is neither free nor risk free either. I guess we should discourage talking about buying or selling stocks too. You've challenged a large number of posts about options that never once said the gains were free or risk free. If it's impossible to make consistent returns with options there would not exist market makers for options. Yet there they are.

Options have a time element which to some extent decouples from the fundamentals.

For buy-and-hold you only need to be right eventually, for options you need to be right within a tighter time window.
IMO being right within a time window is more challenging, hence more risky, more prone to FUD and short term macro moves,

Well researched long term investment decisions are lower risk, but nothing is risk free.

Individual investors are not playing in the same league as market makers.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I'd like to thank the risk police for reminding us 75,000 times in this thread that options aren't as safe as holding shares. Can we keep it to maybe once a week moving forward?

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Emmet Peppers tweeted on Jan 8 that he has closed out 80% of his S&P Jan15 calls trade, and is looking to get assigned the remaining 20% to accumulate more TSLA shares.

Wasn't sure how to attach the tweet other than a screenshot - (that I was too lazy to take), so the text of his Jan 8 tweet is copied below:

"Bulls make money, Bears make money, but Pigs get slaughtered" I have closed ~80% of my remaining Jan 15 calls from S&P trade...kept ~20% with intention to take assignment of shares adding to my core TSLA long-term share position"


https://twitter.com/EmmetPeppers/st...pers2Fstatus2F1347594517222887425widget=Tweet

​

 

[StealthP3D]

I'd like to thank the risk police for reminding us 75,000 times in this thread that options aren't as safe as holding shares. Can we keep it to maybe once a week moving forward?

I'll stop as soon as people stop misrepresenting the selling of covered calls as "free money". You are one of the worst offenders - you are always posting about "free money". It's not accurate and it can mislead lurkers who don't know any better. It's not a good look for the forum either.

Do you have any idea how many TMC members have been called out of their TSLA positions by writing CC's in the last 1 1/2 years? Only a few of them have the balls to share it with us. The damage is measured in the millions, probably $100's of millions since TSLA has appreciated so much since this travesty began.

 

[Causalien]

I keep seeing ppl everywhere say that TSLA holders are just lucky. Or replace TSLA with anything that suddenly shot up. Same thing for options.

Ya sure.

But at what point is it no longer luck? Someone should give a definition. I mean if you take the random prophet approach where you get 1million account hand have half say up, the other half say down. Repeat till only one left. How much time is that? And by statistics, the n+1 time he make a prediction that prediction should fail right?

Which means, at one point, someone goes past that prediction point and consistently makes money. It can no longer be attributed to luck.

 

[StealthP3D]

I keep seeing ppl everywhere say that TSLA holders are just lucky. Or replace TSLA with anything that suddenly shot up. Same thing for options.

Ya sure.

But at what point is it no longer luck? Someone should give a definition. I mean if you take the random prophet approach where you get 1million account hand have half say up, the other half say down. Repeat till only one left. How much time is that? And by statistics, the n+1 time he make a prediction that prediction should fail right?

Which means, at one point, someone goes past that prediction point and consistently makes money. It can no longer be attributed to luck.

That's a good question. Even though I'm not a statistical genius I would guess it takes more than a few spells of winners to show statistical significance. But it gets complicated. How much was risked? For how long? How many losers? How big were the losers?

The way I solve this is to not worry if it's luck or skill, just whether it's working! I would caution that the most difficult thing to appraise here is the amount of risk an investor is taking. That's because none of us live long enough to accurately judge our risk by our own results. And all the formulas I've seen that attempt to quantify risk are sorely lacking. So I go by seat of the pants. For the last 30 years it's working but that is not enough time to say I'm not carrying a lot of risk (mostly related to adjusting how concentrated my portfolio is based upon my conviction that the value won't go "poof"). Every investor is presumably looking for investments with the best risk/reward ratios. But judging what that is is a fuzzy science at best.

I would rather be lucky with 8x returns than skillful with 1.25X returns! Let them call it luck, it doesn't matter to me!

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I'll stop as soon as people stop misrepresenting the selling of covered calls as "free money". You are one of the worst offenders - you are always posting about "free money". It's not accurate and it can mislead lurkers who don't know any better. It's not a good look for the forum either.

Do you have any idea how many TMC members have been called out of their TSLA positions by writing CC's in the last 1 1/2 years? Only a few of them have the balls to share it with us. The damage is measured in the millions, probably $100's of millions since TSLA has appreciated so much since this travesty began.

Did a quick search. I referred to options as “free money” precisely once, in the Trading thread. I said I only entertain options when looking for leverage in a situation I see as free money, such as the recent inclusion event.

There’s nothing wrong with that. I value your input, but you don’t need to go around saving everyone from themselves all day every day. It’s humans investing, it’s gonna be messy.

 

[AudubonB]

Anyone know where to find a list of all the funds that are benchmarked to the S&P? Google searches are not yielding much helpful information...

I’m going back in time, and it is possible that things have changed since I departed Wall St., but I doubt it. A fund that uses the S&P500 as a benchmark will mention it in its marketing material and in its regular performance notes, but in that there really is nothing official in so doing, either through filing with the SEC or paying Standard & Poor’s a fee or any other way I can imagine, then the answer is probably “No, as no such information is agglomerated.” Now, many have noted that S&P touts “$X trillion in funds are benchmarked to the Index” but I am suspecting that is some marketing fluff of their own, backed by a reasonable amount of statistical analysis and a lot of extrapolation.

 

[Remster32]

Credit Suisse raises their price target from $400 to $800, maintains Neutral rating. They expand their model to 2030, forecasting 5.1 million units.

For 2021, they are forecasting 853,000 deliveries. For 2022, 1.1 million.

Bull case price target goes to $1,450.

 

[WattsHappening]

Sawyer Merritt is reporting Credit Suisse just raised their PT from $400 to $800.

https://twitter.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1348502625755557896

EDIT: Sniped!!!

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

They expand their model to 2030, forecasting 5.1 million units.
For 2021, they are forecasting 853,000 deliveries. For 2022, 1.1 million.

That doesn’t make sense - an increase of 350K units this year (75% increase) & then only 250K the year after (only 30% increase)
Idiots

 

[Mo City]

Keep in mind this isn't worth a bucket of warm spit, but pre-market in Frankfurt shows TL0 bid/ask prices of EUR 719.30/720.00 ($876.57/$877.42).

Posted this because I have absolutely nothing else to do right now. Still deciding if I'm going to stay up until USA pre-market opens.

 

[capster]

With covered calls on nearly all my shares, I'd be overjoyed with a cool off week. I just don't see it happening. The buying we saw last week accelerated right into the close. I think it's not done and we're also in one of those self-reinforcing cycles where short covering and delta hedging follows normal buying.

Now that we're in the New Year, I think this mess keeps going to a peak point where nearly all benchmarkers have been satisfied. No clue where that is.

Yeah I don’t see it either.

No offense to you (or @Lycanthrope), but I’m perplexed.
My strategy is:
1) Identify the disrupters early (non-trivial I know)
2) Buy as much as you can (takes stones I know)
3) Hold on for dear life (sometimes stressful as all get out I know)

Simple enough in theory though tricky in the real world and taxing at times.

Why on any of the livable earths would you sell covered calls if you had made it so far as step one? Even if I really needed the money, I’m becoming more and more convinced that selling a few shares is preferable to selling CC’s.

If I was going to d*ck around with options, I wouldn’t do it with my core holdings in a highly visible equity competing against the, er, ‘best’ the Street has to offer. I’d pick some backwater stock where I was competing against the not even JV team.

 

[StealthP3D]

I’m going back in time, and it is possible that things have changed since I departed Wall St., but I doubt it. A fund that uses the S&P500 as a benchmark will mention it in its marketing material and in its regular performance notes, but in that there really is nothing official in so doing, either through filing with the SEC or paying Standard & Poor’s a fee or any other way I can imagine, then the answer is probably “No, as no such information is agglomerated.” Now, many have noted that S&P touts “$X trillion in funds are benchmarked to the Index” but I am suspecting that is some marketing fluff of their own, backed by a reasonable amount of statistical analysis and a lot of extrapolation.

Can a fund claim to use the S&P 500 as a benchmark without licensing the right to use the Index commercially? I imagine S&P has a list of funds who license that right and those funds probably pay a tiny license fee based on dollars in the fund. If so, it would be a simple matter for S&P to tally the amount of funds benchmarked.

It would be quite a chore to compile this manually by looking at every funds prospectus filed with the SEC but it could be done.

 

[Bet TSLA]

And a Tesla gets hit head on by a wrong way driver in a Buick Enclave on I-80 west of Salt Lake City. Both drivers dead. Fire. Sounds ugly. A passenger in the Tesla is in the hospital.

2 killed when car traveling wrong way hits Tesla on freeway, UHP says

I guess being in a Tesla doesn't protect you from everything. The speed limit is high there, 80 I think.