Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Hitting the Upper-BB just in the past few minutes triggered some small selling, which (so far) seems to have been eagerly gobbled up (sux2b shortz)

 

[jhm]

Negative negative Will Robinson.

When will they never learn?

 

[SOULPEDL]

This kind of contradicts the news that the "Model 2" will be released in 2022 if they are just starting the entire design of the car. To make both reports true I would think they'd have to already have the sled design figured out and just need the body and interior styling figured out. That still seems like a pretty tight timeline considering lead time for stamping machines and other equipment for the line. But Tesla seems to have this whole 'building the machine that builds the machine' thing down pretty well by now so I wouldn't bet against the target date.

"Stamping Machines"?
Do we know how it will be made already?

 

[2daMoon]

This kind of contradicts the news that the "Model 2" will be released in 2022 if they are just starting the entire design of the car. To make both reports true I would think they'd have to already have the sled design figured out and just need the body and interior styling figured out. That still seems like a pretty tight timeline considering lead time for stamping machines and other equipment for the line. But Tesla seems to have this whole 'building the machine that builds the machine' thing down pretty well by now so I wouldn't bet against the target date.

Something I remember reading is that what you describe may be the case. If they intend to use M3 front and rear castings and shorten the wheelbase with a shorter battery section for a new car. Then, just add the body work, etc. for the new, improved model whatever.

This could result in a 2 door hatchback that shares M3/MY body panels back to the rear of the front doors. Just design new from there back and roll with it. Or, make it a 4 door with a smaller cargo/trunk area.

 

[Todd Burch]

Was this over the wrong-way car news?

Not at all. Macros were red this morning, and with Tesla being pretty high it just corrected a little more than average.

We are WAY past the days of a single accident causing big changes in TSLA, unless the accident obviously is a sign of a major systemic fault.

The accident mentioned this morning was a wrong-way driver on the interstate that hit a Tesla head-on. Such collisions are often fatal and really not that newsworthy at a higher level.

 

[Todd Burch]

TSLA is actually recovering quite nicely. We didn't drop as much as I thought we might. Personally is see that as a sign of strength. We might still breach $900 in the first half of this week.

 

[kcveins]

While buying a few shares on the dip, I noticed that Schwab has significantly changed their holding requirement on TSLA if you were trying to buy on margin. It was 65% for the longest time, but now it is down to 40%. I suspect this is mostly due to being in the S&P.

 

[phantasms]

MMs+hedgies are likely attempting to 'fill-the-gap' to $817

 

[goinfraftw]

OSFI launches consultation on climate-related risks in the financial sector

"OSFI is seeking to engage FRFIs (federally regulated financial institutions), FRPPs (federally regulated pension plans) and other interested stakeholders in a dialogue on climate-related risks. OSFI is interested in how FRFIs and FRPPs define, identify, measure and build resilience to climate‑related risks. OSFI is also seeking feedback on how it can facilitate FRFIs' and FRPPs' preparedness for, and resilience to, these risks. This input will guide the development of regulatory and supervisory approaches that meet OSFI's mandate of protecting depositors, policyholders and private pension plan beneficiaries while allowing institutions to compete and take risks."

The Canadians are coming!

Note: The paper is worth a read to see down-stream effects on climate-related risks on an institutional basis.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Something I remember reading is that what you describe may be the case. If they intend to use M3 front and rear castings and shorten the wheelbase with a shorter battery section for a new car. Then, just add the body work, etc. for the new, improved model whatever.

This could result in a 2 door hatchback that shares M3/MY body panels back to the rear of the front doors. Just design new from there back and roll with it. Or, make it a 4 door with a smaller cargo/trunk area.

OT (100%)
A 2 door hatchback would get my love. I drove a Datsun 240Z many road trips.

 

[AperiodicCoder]

Math doesn't lie.

I regularly sell OTM covered calls, and I add to my share base by buying more shares with the premium. Even in the epic run-up that TSLA has had, I still have not had a single share called away. If the run up is that great and a call goes from OTM to ITM, then the future calls have gone up even more (has ALWAYS been the case), and I've rolled forward and gotten some more premium in the process.

Simply put - I have MORE shares of TSLA now than I would have possibly had with just a HODL strategy.

I get the sentiment from @StealthP3D to be cautious with CCs. As a person just starting to sell them, I can see where people can easily lose shares if they don't have enough grasp of what's going on. When in doubt: HODL.

But with knowledge and a conservative strategy, there's no reason CCs ever have to lose shares. I sold my first CC on the day the current run started and had to learn quick about rolling up to ensure I don't lose any shares.

Being completely new to how call prices changed I was nervous to have the share price chasing my strike price. But now that I've actually "got my hands dirty" I'm feeling more comfortable and know that I can confidently roll to a higher strike/later expiration if the share price does rise quickly (a great problem to have, I'd say).

This epic run has really been a quick education on defending my shares from upward movement.

One assumption on never having to lose shares is that you don't need to access the underlying shares. Given that I'm a long term hodler, this works for me. But if you were to need to all of a sudden access your shares and buy to close then of course you may lose shares at that point.

Edit: when I say "lose" shares I should clarify that I mean both 1) having to sell shares to cover an underwater call when you need to access underlying shares and 2) losing out on the upside if the call rises above your strike price.

 

[Artful Dodger]

This kind of contradicts the news that the "Model 2" will be released in 2022 if they are just starting the entire design of the car. To make both reports true I would think they'd have to already have the sled design figured out and just need the body and interior styling figured out. That still seems like a pretty tight timeline considering lead time for stamping machines and other equipment for the line. But Tesla seems to have this whole 'building the machine that builds the machine' thing down pretty well by now so I wouldn't bet against the target date.

"Stamping Machines"?
Do we know how it will be made already?

"Stamping Dies" specifically are the long-lead-time items for tooling. Especially so since both the Model 3/Y for GF3/4 could just be additional die orders for the existing pattern first built for the dies used at Fremont.

I'll defer to @Krugerrand for a timeline on die production, but I expect a 2 year buildout at Giga Shanghai Phase 3 to go 'watermelons-to-millions' (of Models 2).

Cheers!

 

[Mike Smith]

Hilarious to see SIGL continue to roar higher due to Elon's tweets about Signal even though it was clearly explained all weekend that this is not the company that owns the Signal app. Up another 325% today. Just goes to show how feverishly stupid money will chase momentum.

 

[Eugene Ash]

Something I remember reading is that what you describe may be the case. If they intend to use M3 front and rear castings and shorten the wheelbase with a shorter battery section for a new car. Then, just add the body work, etc. for the new, improved model whatever.

This could result in a 2 door hatchback that shares M3/MY body panels back to the rear of the front doors. Just design new from there back and roll with it. Or, make it a 4 door with a smaller cargo/trunk area.

That would probably still be too wide for non-us roads to be considered a small car.

 

[goinfraftw]

Under the radar a bit, but Massachusetts has been plowing ahead on Net-Zero by 2035 releasing 2 plans, for the next decade+. The just passed a big net-zero greenhouse gas emission limit bill too:

Massachusetts Lawmakers Pass Sweeping Climate Change Bill

MA2050DecarbonizationRoadmap_FINAL.pdf | Mass.gov

Here are some pretty interesting charts that lend a suggestion on the rest of the United States energy profile.

 

[Zero CO2]

From your POV losing shares on covered calls can be bad, but as I’m sure you’re aware may not be bad from another. If one were retired and needed to sell shares on which to live and had thousands of shares it seems there could be the following approaches:

1. Sell a small percentage of your shares regularly regardless of share price. I believe this is what @DaveT does?
2. Maintain a buffer of years of cash. Sell on highs (either all time highs or recent highs, or gut feeling highs) to replenish the buffer, so you’re not selling on prolonged downturns. IIRC this is what @StealthP3D did. When we 1st got into the 400’s post split, the pace of the stock rise felt so rapidthat it felt like a high, that he posted he was selling some, and I felt similarly and did the same (though I bought back some of those during battery day).
3. Sell covered calls at a price for which you’re more than willing to sell 100 shares anyway. You’re generating income and if the shares are called, that’s fine as well since you’re replenishing your cash buffer at stock price highs.
4. Sell calls on a regular basis, but buy back if you risk losing the shares. Then you’re betting you will win more than you’ll lose. I.e. being the house is usually wise.

What’s risky is selling calls at a price for which you would be unwilling to sell the shares because you think you’re smart enough that the shares won’t get called.

good advice ... key here is that you have accumulated your target # of shares in the given equity ... i guess this approach would work for me with AAPL .. but IMO TSLA shares are long term and I hold them with a death grip

 

[bro1999]

So I'm super bull on a couple of ETFs (VCAR, VFIN). VCAR is like 15% TSLA and another 10% in TSLA options. Rest is mostly a NASDAQ fund. Let's you get a slice of the TSLA action without ponying up TSLA share prices. VCAR is ~$15 currently.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

So....about that $APPL and Hyundai partnership...these aren't even EV's they are recalling

Hyundai recalls 471K more SUVs, tells owners to park outside

 

[S3XY]

"Stamping Machines"?
Do we know how it will be made already?

Sure, I'm making the assumption that it won't use stainless steel panels but I think that's a pretty good assumption. If you're referring to the single piece front and rear chassis I fully expect that to be used in order to meet production levels.

 

[AperiodicCoder]

You don't *lose* any shares.....you sell them at a price you deemed acceptable, no different than putting in a GTC limit sell except that you got paid to submit the order.

Let's say I need to access my underlying shares and I'm underwater on the calls I've sold: I might have to sell some shares to close out my contracts unless I have the cash to otherwise close them.

And yes, if you get your shares called away you aren't "losing" shares but losing out on the upside above your strike. Either way you look at it: you don't have to ever have your shares called away if you are holding long term.