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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Wow, that is shocking to me. Yeah, a lot of things making more sense now!
Veeeeeery interested to see a 1/15 update. If it's still high we might see a bloodbath at earnings/guidance.
Seriously who is still shorting? I thought they are all gone...
Maybe, short common to buy OTM calls? I should try.
/s
Tes La Ferrari
Active Member
Sudre
Active Member
What would be really hilarious is tomorrow when the next article comes out saying, "Vandals caught on Tesla Sentry mode in cars."
Buddyroe
Active Member
Wait, the first evidence of the single piece Model Y rear casting surfaced yesterday. That's on a car that was DELIVERED on Dec 23 (we don't know when it was built). On a feature we KNEW was coming. The giant casting machine was built outdoors in the open, under full view of our drones.
So that's 20 days from DELIVERY to evidence for the Y megacasting, but your CONCLUSION is that because there's no S/X production evidence after ONE DAY, it didn't happen?
BTW, do you trade alot? Just curious...
No, I don't trade a lot. Have held my 300 shares (1500 now) since May 2013.
Toolsmack
Member
Thanks for the short interest report, I had a gut feeling today with all of the specific share price capping, that we are dealing with a new round of ‘smart shorts’ who got in after this huge run-up to short their obvious overvalued target (think Burry, etc).
Personally, I expect the next report to be even higher in 15 days, because Tesla is one of prime targets now for anyone that come along with no research and a gut the market has gone crazy. Eventually this is only fuel for our eventual march higher, but I’m anxious to see how much fight they have in them to keep us within shouting distance of the inclusion price.
I’m usually less than 50/50 on my assumptions, but the short interest is worth discussing among those with a better handle on the things
Personally, I expect the next report to be even higher in 15 days, because Tesla is one of prime targets now for anyone that come along with no research and a gut the market has gone crazy. Eventually this is only fuel for our eventual march higher, but I’m anxious to see how much fight they have in them to keep us within shouting distance of the inclusion price.
I’m usually less than 50/50 on my assumptions, but the short interest is worth discussing among those with a better handle on the things
Buddyroe
Active Member
Wait, the first evidence of the single piece Model Y rear casting surfaced yesterday. That's on a car that was DELIVERED on Dec 23 (we don't know when it was built). On a feature we KNEW was coming. The giant casting machine was built outdoors in the open, under full view of our drones.
So that's 20 days from DELIVERY to evidence for the Y megacasting, but your CONCLUSION is that because there's no S/X production evidence after ONE DAY, it didn't happen?
BTW, do you trade alot? Just curious...
So where are the hundreds of cars they built yesterday and today? If there is no refresh, then the shutdown had nothing to do with the refresh (tho there could still be a refresh). If there IS a refreshed model, you really think they'd be able to hide hundreds of cars and no one snap a single picture?
I guess my point is, I don't think the shutdown had anything to do with the refresh - unless the restart was delayed and we'll hear about it in the next few days.
Tho honestly, I have no clue about this refresh. Lots of rumors for a couple of years now.
LVCVA spending $51.2M on transportation amenities for conventions
"In three separate actions, the board authorized paying $45 million to Western Management Group for the operation of the Monorail from Feb. 7 through June 30, 2023; up to $6.25 million to Boring to operate the mile-long people-mover system from Feb. 1 through June 30, 2022; and, at no cost, authorized access to Boring to dig tunnels connecting the Convention Center with Encore beneath Convention Center land."
and
"Boring will use differing rates based on whether there are conventions, meetings or trade shows using the building and how many attendees there are. The LVCVA will pay Boring $167,000 a month to maintain the system until shows return to the Convention Center, expected to be by June. A sliding scale based on show size would cost the LVCVA up to $30,000 a day, depending on how many people are attending shows.
The Convention Center Loop will not charge users for rides or show sponsors for the service. The LVCVA considers the people-mover a transportation amenity.
Until the end of 2021, the Teslas will be operated with drivers. At the end of the year, the LVCVA expects the system to run autonomously and at that time, the LVCVA would renegotiate terms of the operations deal with Boring."
"In three separate actions, the board authorized paying $45 million to Western Management Group for the operation of the Monorail from Feb. 7 through June 30, 2023; up to $6.25 million to Boring to operate the mile-long people-mover system from Feb. 1 through June 30, 2022; and, at no cost, authorized access to Boring to dig tunnels connecting the Convention Center with Encore beneath Convention Center land."
and
"Boring will use differing rates based on whether there are conventions, meetings or trade shows using the building and how many attendees there are. The LVCVA will pay Boring $167,000 a month to maintain the system until shows return to the Convention Center, expected to be by June. A sliding scale based on show size would cost the LVCVA up to $30,000 a day, depending on how many people are attending shows.
The Convention Center Loop will not charge users for rides or show sponsors for the service. The LVCVA considers the people-mover a transportation amenity.
Until the end of 2021, the Teslas will be operated with drivers. At the end of the year, the LVCVA expects the system to run autonomously and at that time, the LVCVA would renegotiate terms of the operations deal with Boring."
If there was no refresh they wouldn't have a reason to hide those 100s of cars. People are looking and seen nothing. Just sayin
Do not know if this has been posted.
‘Big Short’ investor says his big Tesla short is getting ‘bigger and bigger’
"
Tesla TSLA, +4.72% short sellers, caught on the wrong end of a $38 billion hit in 2020, suffered “the largest yearly mark-to-market loss” Ihor Dusaniwsky of S3 Partners has ever seen.
One of those under water on that trade: Michael Burry.
The investor, made famous in the book and film, “The Big Short,” for his prescient bet against the U.S. housing market, announced in early December that he was shorting Tesla at “ridiculous” levels.
It’s been ugly for Burry and the rest of the shorts since then, with the Tesla shares up more than 44% in the past month. Over the past year, the stock has exploded for a gain of 820%, making CEO Elon Musk the richest man in the world. On Friday, Tesla stretched its record winning streak to 11 sessions in a row, closing at another record."
‘Big Short’ investor says his big Tesla short is getting ‘bigger and bigger’
"
Tesla TSLA, +4.72% short sellers, caught on the wrong end of a $38 billion hit in 2020, suffered “the largest yearly mark-to-market loss” Ihor Dusaniwsky of S3 Partners has ever seen.
One of those under water on that trade: Michael Burry.
The investor, made famous in the book and film, “The Big Short,” for his prescient bet against the U.S. housing market, announced in early December that he was shorting Tesla at “ridiculous” levels.
It’s been ugly for Burry and the rest of the shorts since then, with the Tesla shares up more than 44% in the past month. Over the past year, the stock has exploded for a gain of 820%, making CEO Elon Musk the richest man in the world. On Friday, Tesla stretched its record winning streak to 11 sessions in a row, closing at another record."
Good points.
I think it might bode well for India to remove all taxes for EV market, local or imported - just to get the EV adoption and the eco system get started. Perhaps in return for some transfer of technology for making batteries. Win win for both. But that takes a lot of vision and foresight into the future. For all intents it seems the current administration is serious about moving to green energy generation and consumption.
For those wondering: S3 totally missed the additional shorting in their update on 1/4, where the graph still showed ~45M as of 12/31:
So whoever was doing the shorting was outside of the data S3 has access to. It will be interesting to see their next update.
Interesting report and not entirely surprising.
Yes, you’d think word would have gotten around that shorting TSLA is the widow maker trade of this century, but there are bound to be saps who didn’t get the memo.
However, it most reminds me of a scene I saw in a movie where sailors on a tall ship were throwing buckets of water on a wooden pulley to keep it from overheating and bursting into flame.
The powers that be are trying to manage the rise in my view. There’s a lot of effort to convince folks there’s nothing to see here, the show is over, move along.
I imagine many big institutions are playing many ends against the middle. It is possible they make money elsewhere despite the probable losses on their short positions.
However, I think many of these big players have been out of position wrt TSLA for some time. This short action may be more indicative of attempted damage control strategies with the aim of easing pressure rather than representing a real belief demand for shares is going to weaken.
Just a possibility not advice.
If / when they start a Roadrunner based factory to make Energy Storage Batteries in India, that should get very favorable treatment from all levels of Indian government.
They can start with something not much bigger than Kato Rd.
They can import Model 3/Y and Superchargers and slowly start to grow a presence.
The government giving some concessions on taxes for imported EVs is likely.
So start small, and grow slowly initially. They need to build a strong team in India with local knowledge.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Absence of evidence isn't evidence of absence. We've seen with the Model Y large casting it can take 3 weeks before 1st reports come out, even for an expected feature.
The data support no conclusion as yet. The most approriate action is to suspend judgement. Waiting is hard.
Joshker
Member
As much as I hoped for a refresh my feeling is someone would have seen something by now (if you’ve driven by the Fremont Factory you know what I’m talking about). There’s no reason to hide vehicles when they could just as easily announce a refresh. Q4 is over, what’s the risk in announcing? Also there are thousands of employees at Fremont, you’re telling me not one person would tell someone what they were doing with the S/X lines while it was shut down. Skunk works like building the Roadster 2.0 was easy to hide, hiding what’s going on in the factory, not so much.
I really hope I’m wrong.
I really hope I’m wrong.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Yeah, I've been reporting this literally for a year. FINRA only reports on half the trades done on NASDAQ. The half they miss is the market makers and large hedge funds (which can also hold MM privileges on NASDAQ).
I'll also wager that some of those MMs/hedgies are the very same ones that issued their TSLA upgrades amidst a hail of shorting on Monday.
The Jan 15 short interest report will be very interesting indeed. I trust that our very own samurai is watching closely... stock dividend
Cheers!
Bet TSLA
Active Member
Well, back when he was at Piper Jaffray nobody who followed Apple closely thought much of his predictions either. See, for instance:
Analyst Gene Munster predicts Apple will make an iPhone with a foldable screen
To imagine he's capable of understanding Tesla (or Apple) is laughable. But... he's better than most of the others.
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