Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ByeByeJohnny]

Went to Fremont today with my new 4K drone. Much better connection to the drone enabled further flying distance and time and so I managed to capture some cool moments. No refreshed models to be found, but there is extensive work going on around the presses. Not quite sure what they are building... Enjoy!

Holy crap, so they are moving every single car by trolley from paint to assembly? Around half of California it seems. Judging by this clip there is no way a driver can move more than 10 an hour at best. That would easily be a million dollars for 350k cars they are doing now. That's also assuming that's the only such extra transport that will be unnecessary in the new factories. They are gonna save so much money when most cars are NOT made in Fremont anymore.

 

[JRP3]

Are you sure about that? My impression was the DBE "cookie dough" is a process that retains the electrode chemistry but eliminates the majority of the drying process of the traditional jelly roll.

Solvent takes up space and when it's dried will leave voids. May also leave behind some trace material. Eliminating it should lead to some increase in density.

 

[dgodfrey]

Solvent takes up space and when it's dried will leave voids. May also leave behind some trace material. Eliminating it should lead to some increase in density.

Good to know. Does anyone know if this is a measurable amount or just theoretical? @Buckminster ?

 

[jerry33]

Is the new 4680 pack expected to weigh less than the current pack for same kWh?

A lot less because there is no pack, just batteries.

 

[-=buzz=-]

Are you sure about that? My impression was the DBE "cookie dough" is a process that retains the electrode chemistry but eliminates the majority of the drying process of the traditional jelly roll. The chemical composition and gravimetric density shouldn't be measurably different unless the Maxwell powder process results in a lighter jelly roll at the time it's encapsulated in the can.
I believe the bulk of the weight savings which there definitely is, comes from the ratio of "skin to guts" of the 4680 form factor having 2.2X more guts/skin over the 2170 cells.

DBE has three potential benefits beside elimination of the slurry/drying-process:
- thicker active material layer not possible with evaporation drying
- no solvent residue or voids interfering with cell chemistry, although DBE might introduce its own polutants
- possibility to use chemistries and ingredients not suited for the drying-oven-process

Each of those might improve energy or power density.

 

[lklundin]

Is the new 4680 pack expected to weigh less than the current pack for same kWh?

Yes. Per Elon Musk on battery day, the non-electrochemically active parts of the battery will actually have negative mass.

This is so, because via their encapsulating cylinder the cells themselves contribute to the structural strength and stability of the car, reducing the amount of material in the chassis/battery pack otherwise needed to obtain this strength and stability.

 

[CorneliusXX]

DBE has three potential benefits beside elimination of the slurry/drying-process:
- thicker active material layer not possible with evaporation drying
- no solvent residue or voids interfering with cell chemistry, although DBE might introduce its own polutants
- possibility to use chemistries and ingredients not suited for the drying-oven-process

Each of those might improve energy or power density.

To expand on your first point - if there is a thicker electrode layer the jelly roll will require fewer winds for the given volume of a 4680 cell compared to one manufactured with thinner electrodes, leading to less separator and less backing conductors needed within the cell and more active material as a % of volume.

 

[Cult Member]

"Model 3 creeps in on little cat feet..."

EDIT: OOOPS! I forgot no poetry.

The name of her Tesla? Garfield

 

[wipster]

Elon himself explained this years ago in the 60 minutes interview.




Replace "mass-produced car" with whatever is being discussed and it still holds true.


Basically if he's giving you a date about a thing he hasn't actually ever done, it's just a guess and likely wrong. FSD for example- or terascaling the next-gen batteries. He's never done it (and nobody has) so he legit does not KNOW when it'll be done- how could he? So he throws out a date but it's usually...overly optimistic. He is good at recognizing hard problems, but often thinks they'll be easier/faster to fix than they turn out to be.


In contrast- If he's giving you a date on a thing he HAS done (building a car factory for example) then he probably is going to offer a solid timeline (see Shanghai being on time or ahead of schedule, and Austin and Berlin being that way too.).

And worth noting- each later iteration of "thing he HAS done" generally turns out notably superior to the last one in addition to being completed faster.

Yep! I believe it's called "Elon Time"... take what he says and double it, at a minimum. I must say though, he does seem to be getting better as time goes on. I think he's taken the advice to heart that it's better to overestimate than underestimate... or at least it seems that way.

 

[Zaxxon]

Tesla has a giant new building next to Giga Nevada and we might know what it's for - Electrek

“The same source told us that Tesla is planning to use the new building for the production of the Tesla Semi, its all-electric semi truck.”

Article dated 2/19/2020, 11 months old.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Article dated 2/19/2020, 11 months old.

thanks, my bad. Removed.

 

[Nocturnal]

Being a Tesla investor is like being a fan of Lost, expect that the former pays off. (song lyrics from the tesla battery production video)

Credit to
https://twitter.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1351011802583334920?s=20 for noticing.

 

[Curt Renz]

Benzinga - this morning: Elon Musk Talks About Tesla's Inspiration For Battery Cell, Vehicle Manufacturing Strategy

Excerpt:

Musk tweeted that the best manufacturing technology is in high volume industries like food and beverages, medical devices, and toys. And the battery production line shown in the video does look similar to a bottling plant.

Musk went on to say the giant press production method for the Model Y Tesla is attempting to "make full-size cars in the same way that toy cars are made."

 

[Davidzhao365]

I am looking to invest $5m into SpaceX, anyone knows a seller? Open to SPV investment.

 

[Nocturnal]

I am looking to invest $5m into SpaceX, anyone knows a seller? Open to SPV investment.

Not currently but we have a thread for potential investments in SpaceX to watch.
SpaceX investor's thread | Page 20 | Tesla Motors Club

 

[Curt Renz]

TSLA currently has a Zacks Rating of #1 Strong Buy: Tesla, Inc. - TSLA - Stock Price Today - Zacks

Zacks - today: Top Ranked Momentum Stocks to Buy for January 18th

Excerpt:

manufacturer and seller of electric vehicles, and energy generation and storage systems has a Zacks Rank #1 and witnessed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings increasing 5.4% over the last 60 days.

Tesla’s shares gained nearly 26% over the last one month. The company possesses a Momentum Score of A.

 

[Mo City]

Troy releases his Q1 deliveries estimate on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike/status/1351219021077749774

Fremont......105.9K
Shanghai......82.1K
Total...........188.0K

Full Year.......874K

 

[Curt Renz]

Dow Jones through Morningstar - hour ago: Tesla Starts Delivering China-Made Model Y Crossover — Update

Excerpt:

Tesla Inc. delivered its first made-in-China Model Y compact crossover vehicles on Monday, the latest milestone in the American company's drive into the world's largest market for electric cars.

 

[garrett5688]

Amazing they can deliver both model 3 and now Y from only a muddy field /s

 

[goinfraftw]

Something I've been thinking about:

What ethics and regulatory issues does Tesla, as a technology company, present to the world as it scales? What affects will that have on Tesla as an investment?

I was reading this article in regards to social media:

the sun is going down and you're getting cold

...and that reminded me of Hiro Mizuno's reply to Elon Musk's comment about social media.

As it's a Musk company, I'm sure they're thinking things through 10-20 years down the line. Though, wondering what thoughts/concerns people have in regards to their investment(s) in Tesla and Musks' companies in regards to what we're seeing unfolding by other tech companies like, for example, social media.