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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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TSLA normally trades flat or falls a bit after earnings, even good earnings. That's fine, long term it doesn't matter to me if we consolidate for a bit. I'm more interested in the actual numbers tomorrow, how much the margins increased and what the guidance for 2021 is.


Pretty sure Elon is going to spend half the investor call talking about Etsy and GameStop...
 
Q4 2019 earnings was the spark that lit the rocket o_Oo_Oo_O
I felt that having any kind of profit gave Tesla that chance of being in the S&P which started it all. Now profit is now no longer needed for any kind of shenanigans. So I think there needs to be some major surprises coming from margins, solar, battery deployment, and 4680 ramp up for any more fuel to this rocket.
 
I felt that having any kind of profit gave Tesla that chance of being in the S&P which started it all. Now profit is now no longer needed for any kind of shenanigans. So I think there needs to be some major surprises coming from margins, solar, battery deployment, and 4680 ramp up for any more fuel to this rocket.

That's true......I've always thought 2021 guidance/forecast will be that surprise.

Or actually, I think the announcement/date along with pricing of FSD subscription model(if it's within Q1) could also be that catalyst. Wall St loves their SAAS
 
I felt that having any kind of profit gave Tesla that chance of being in the S&P which started it all. Now profit is now no longer needed for any kind of shenanigans. So I think there needs to be some major surprises coming from margins, solar, battery deployment, and 4680 ramp up for any more fuel to this rocket.
Inclusion has now passed, everything is different. The float is tight as a mofo, shorts are running for cover, and we're not entirely sure all the benchmark fund buying is done. Lets not forget all this newfound retail wealth from the reddit bros will need a home....

I think we see the standard muted response for 2 days, even after Elon guides for 850-900k deliveries, then another Rocket Monday. I'll be buying calls Friday for the following week if we end the week below $850.

In the past the float was in the hands of traders and it was a huge percentage of all shares outstanding. Now....not so much. I will be VERY interested to see the short interest update thru Jan 15 if and when it's released at 4pm tomorrow as scheduled.

To be fair, I'm pretty sure I've been this rosy for like 15 of the last 20 earnings reports. This one just smells dangerous to me. When it all cools down.....that's another story entirely.
 
"LIVE: Tesla Q4 Earnings Preview / Estimates" | Tesla Daily on Youtube

Scheduled for 1/26/21, 1:05 PM EST (22 min from this post)


Cheers!

I like the way Rob presents his analysis, specifically, it didn't hurt that he had a naked Asian giantess standing right behind his right shoulder the whole time. At first I didn't notice her but, once I saw her, I couldn't make her go away. :oops:
 
I like the way Rob presents his analysis, specifically, it didn't hurt that he had a naked Asian giantess standing right behind his right shoulder the whole time. At first I didn't notice her but, once I saw her, I couldn't make her go away. :oops:

It was odd how he kept referring to her apologetically as the vacuum cleaner ...
 
Nobody noticed the "Palladium" Model S on the test track? I'm surprised we're not all talking about it


I still think we should get details in the earnings letter, hopefully with some better pictures.

The Electrek article didn't really tell us anything new, it was nice to see a video of it going around the track.

I think this is the body shape, as it also accommodates the Plaid Model S.
 
Anyone else enjoying the short squeeze on all these hedge funds?
Some of them might have been involved with TSLA's short as well seeing how they are connected to Citron.
One downside is that it's sucking money from all other stocks not involved in the squeeze, but it's a good trade off to see shorts getting decimated.

Disclaimer: I have no skin in the short squeeze game
 
Hydrogen is Big Oil's Last Grand Scam — Jade Cove Partners

Hydrogen is Big Oil’s Last Grand Scam
Seems like a good read.

The article focuses especially on the problem of hydrogen transportation which does indeed kill hydrogen cars together with poor efficiency. However, coupling the hydrogen storage and consumption units locally to large windmill sites and/or a large solar farms would take away the need to transport the hydrogen. On the other hand, if renewable energy does indeed become as cheap as some are expecting, the efficiency loss wouldn't be as important for energy storage.

Previously someone also raised the safety issue of storing large amount of hydrogen but I would imagine that this problem is technologically solvable and the sites could be in remote locations as a precaution.

I'm not advocating the use of hydrogen cars at all and but I so far I haven't seen anything conclusive that would categorically kill hydrogen in the energy storage business. At least during the time when we have nowhere enough battery capacity to store massive amounts of green energy.
 
From what I have seen of the Austin and Berlin construction so far casting machines are in rows, with overhead bridge cranes.
My understanding of the patent was that casting machines would need to be at right angles?
The patent and Jerome's comments do imply what you stated, but perhaps that is a future development...

We will have to see what pans out, I agree a single whole body casting at Berlin is possible, a body made from 4 joined castings is also possible,
For the most part I agree with your post. I did not mean to imply that this suction would happen immediately. They have apparently not reached full capacity ( Whatever that is) thus far. We do know that the proprietary alloy being used is intended, in part, to enable faster cycle times.

These machines have been in the IDRA catalogue for a couple of years but Tesla seems to be the first customer. That suggests there is major optimization still coming.

Just in case I was misleading in my earlier posts I expect to see the end state four presses at right angles to be 3-4 years out, and probably in multiple factories when it works.

Finally, these giants have very long lead times, there is no ‘cookie cutter’. IDRA would probably need a couple of years just to produce the things.

I expect those wonderful accomplishment, as I hope I made clear, for the vehicles designed in China and Germany, then perhaps for others. Effectively these will be new vehicles.

As for casting speeds, I doubt that anyone knows what speeds are possible. After all both the machine and alloys are new. Clearly the won’t ever be a fast as are those Mattel ones churning out model cars.
 
I'm not advocating the use of hydrogen cars at all and but I so far I haven't seen anything conclusive that would categorically kill hydrogen in the energy storage business. At least during the time when we have nowhere enough battery capacity to store massive amounts of green energy.

You haven't seen it because you are not searching at the right place. Hydrogen is not getting killed because it doesn't work, it is BS because we already have better options. Batteries are just one of those options, pumped hydro is another very popular and simple. It doesn't work everywhere? Of course not but remember your own words:
Previously someone also raised the safety issue of storing large amount of hydrogen but I would imagine that this problem is technologically solvable and the sites could be in remote locations as a precaution.

If we allow adaptations for hydrogen tech we should also allow for adaptations other techs might require.
Talking about hydrogen without mentioning its pricing and capacities is just spreading BS and painting it as absolutely good.
It is not. It has its price, shortcomings and limitations.

I for one would not want to live near +10 years old hydrogen storage facilities. Fukushima would look like a child play when reasonably sized hydrogen storage blows up. And it is not a question of If, it is a question of when. All the security we built into nuclear facilities still allowed for Chernobyl and Fukushima and the next one that will happen. Disasters cannot be prevented, but their size can be designed.
 
Personally I hope Elon steers clear of the government's desire to go electric. Around 400k of the governments 645k are specialized vehicles (military and mail trucks). Tesla doesn't need the distraction. Perhaps some portion of the remaining 250k vehicles can be converted to Model Y or Model 3 but anything that requires Tesla to spend time and effort on custom projects doesn't help the bigger picture.

Perhaps Tesla can work with the government on solar initiatives or other green projects but I hope they stay away from government fleet.

OT shout out/ poke to Tesla:

I would not want Tesla to have to deal directly with the USPS, but I think that they would be an awesome Tier 1 for a company that could build and support the NGDV.

Full electric ecosystem
Telemetry system
Heat pump for winter efficiency
2 and 4 wheel drive variants
Low floors for easy cargo access
Passive entry/ start system
Auto parking brake
Charging tech
Solar and storage deploy at all post offices
FSD/ autopilot for safety and park and loop routes (smart summon dog mode)
Basically, everything but body/ chassis/ interior.

The fleet uses a high amount of fuel per year, so the 165k or so vehicles would give a higher than average emmissions reduction impact.

I was involved with the NGDV RFQ, and I've often thought about about buying an LLV and merging it with an X or Y to show off the concept; but without Tesla support, it could easily result in a sea of warning lights and broken functions.
 
You haven't seen it because you are not searching at the right place. Hydrogen is not getting killed because it doesn't work, it is BS because we already have better options. Batteries are just one of those options, pumped hydro is another very popular and simple. It doesn't work everywhere? Of course not but remember your own words:


If we allow adaptations for hydrogen tech we should also allow for adaptations other techs might require.
Talking about hydrogen without mentioning its pricing and capacities is just spreading BS and painting it as absolutely good.
It is not. It has its price, shortcomings and limitations.

I for one would not want to live near +10 years old hydrogen storage facilities. Fukushima would look like a child play when reasonably sized hydrogen storage blows up. And it is not a question of If, it is a question of when. All the security we built into nuclear facilities still allowed for Chernobyl and Fukushima and the next one that will happen. Disasters cannot be prevented, but their size can be designed.

Fine, reasonable enough. The article would then have been better served with discussion about safety as well as numbers about potentially existing and planned capacity as well as estimates on prices and/or price development. The transportation issue in the article seems like a straw man fallacy because local generation and usage seems like a sensible starting point for energy storage - rather than using some kind of pipelines or vehicle transportation.