Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[vikings123]

I've been an investor in TSLA longer than Gary Black, will likely own longer than he. I was however surprised that he sold out. I think he raises some points that need to be considered. Having said that, I follow my own drum and not his or others.

https://twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1359096279071150083

1. I'm fine with them calling it 500K delivered. Sure they missed, but in the grand scheme of things they continue to execute.

2. EPS miss? I'm not an accountant, tough to judge. On one hand I drink the Kool-Aid and want to trust execs, on the other I've been burned by that before. Reasons given are all understandable. TSLA in high growth mode. I bet they could act in short term interest to pump EPS any time they want, I'd rather they grow like crazy, sacrifice now for the future. I hope that is what happening.

3. FY21 guidance? I think they generally guide low to start years and higher to finish. 50% yr over yr growth affirmed. I'm good with this. If they are sandbagging, and have great new S/X product, Gary might eat his words. Are they sandbagging? Either way, I'm really ok.

4. Bitcoin! OMG, I got no darn clue on this asset. I wonder if his flight to Ellis Island was to discuss this. By history I trust Elon. I do not invest in Bitcoins as I can't do any analysis that lets me sleep at night. I have a tough time with this investment but not such that I want to sell out of my stock.

5. Red flag call? So all the "delays" not addressed, if these were so important, wouldn't they be asked about? Were they asked and answers ducked? I was not keenly aware of CT or Berlin delay, recall issues (me thinks they were long expected and mr black said so his self). I think it comes down to "it's the batteries stupid". When they have enough they will sell.


I want to well consider what bright minds of finance think of TSLA. I want to be aware of errors in thinking and might be smoothing my thoughts to the situations, or even looking back and changing how I think of new scenarios. The reasons we invested in TSLA remain, we expect to hold for a very long time.

As a spectator sport, this is fascinating to watch. Having typed this, I will go back to sitting on my hands ( and silently cheer for bitcoin)

I have zero problem with GB talking up or down Tesla. I do think he is making a mountain out of a molehill though.

Excellent post @MABMAB. People like Gary add very little value to the long term TSLA discussion. Just because someone uses buzz words and Wall Street lingo it does not make them good investors. I have always wondered about his intentions and this week’s commentary from him pretty much solidifies my thinking.

oh come on you know the only reason Tesla is profitable is because BTC is appreciating. /s

Guarantee this is a headline within the next 12 months. lol

There is some truth to this statement though. I bet the media will start to spin this in some way even though the appreciation in BTC price has no impact on Tesla’s EBITDA numbers.

Didn’t care about GB then and don’t care about GB now.

Well said. Gary is a short term trader who adds no value to any of the long term investment analysis we are used to on these forums and on twitter to a smaller extent.

 

[UncaNed]

Just got an email from [email protected]. Looks like they're ready to start pushing solar hard again.

FWIW I already have solar. Surprised that wasn't clear to them.

View attachment 635594

Soon as it's available here I'm getting a solar roof on my house and all the Tesla solar they can fit on my garage. Not even going to consider how it might pay off, it will be to the benefit of our local Electric co-op.

Edit - and because TSLA will have paid for it.

 

[TravelFree]

OT: Question on taxes when selling covered calls:

Spoiler

Has anyone sold short term covered calls against your shares that have been held less than one year? Does this reset your "start date" to 0 for when shares are considered long term capital gains? As mentioned in this post:

Applying options strategy 'the wheel' to TSLA

Spoiler: answer to your spoiler

No, it doesn't as your shares remain if the covered call expires and you keep the premium offered. If your shares are called away you lose the difference between the strike price and the current market price but keep the premium. Plus you have either a long term cap gains or short term cap gains depending on your ORIGINAL purchase of each lot of stock in the contract that was called away. If you did the CC properly you made money just not as much as if you had just sold at market. FYI- I have done this many times and it works as I stated.

 

[JustMe]

I have 1100c expiring in 2 days, and its value keeps going up even though TSLA is going down. What the hell? Lol

IV is probably going up

 

[UncaNed]

It's a lot more than 400,000 vehicles that will get the tax credit if this bill is passed (based on my understanding of the language).

For a simplistic example that ignores international sales, assume Tesla is making vehicles at the rate of 800,000/year or 200,000/qtr. If they withhold a few sales (if needed) to ensure they get through two quarters without triggering the threshold they will basically have 800,000 with the full $7,000 credit (hitting the threshold at the beginning of the third quarter's production plus the following quarter). Then they will have one quarter of income tax credits at $3,500 (half of the full credit). Depending upon how the timing of this extension of tax credits dovetails with the production ramps in Germany and Texas, it could be more than that.

Note: This analysis assumes all US sales. It's unclear how much Tesla would be able to maximize the benefit by starving U.S. deliveries to maximize the number of quarters before the threshold is reached and insuring strong demand so they can flood the market with sales before the credit expires.

I don't consider this tax credit extension a big positive for Tesla since they would sell every car they could make without any credit - it might give margins a small boost due to better pricing ability. All in all, one more headache for Tesla management which increases the chance they will make errors that could impact the share price. However, it will be great for EV adoption in general since it will bring Tesla's competitors EV's down in price to a level that makes more sense.

Could Tesla import MIC model 2's and benefit from the same tax credit on those sold in the US? If Tesla is supply-constrained in the US, then that allows Tesla to sell as many cars as fast as possible for maximum number of tax credit sales. in the available window.

 

[Nocturnal]

Benzinga - half hour ago: Should Apple Partner With Tesla, Ford Or GM On A Self-Driving EV? | Benzinga

Excerpt:

About 37% of traders and investors believe a Tesla-Apple EV partnership makes the most sense.

Many respondents noted Elon Musk's company is the most established EV automaker and would be the easiest for Apple to partner with, given its EV line up features the longest distance electric cars between charges, the company’s laid out plans for installing EV chargers throughout the U.S. and at-present has the largest EV market share.

That would absolutely make the most sense for Apple, but what would Tesla gain? Apple doesn't have anything Tesla wants, even their cash isn't important anymore.

Could Tesla import MIC model 2's and benefit from the same tax credit on those sold in the US? If Tesla is supply-constrained in the US, then that allows Tesla to sell as many cars as fast as possible for maximum number of tax credit sales. in the available window.

Imports or domestic production doesn't seem to matter.

Now, if say Boring Company started selling electric vans/buses they would be eligible for the full tax credit.

 

[buttershrimp]

I have IBS - Itchy Bollinger Syndrome

 

[Mo City]

Benzinga - half hour ago: Should Apple Partner With Tesla, Ford Or GM On A Self-Driving EV? | Benzinga

Excerpt:

About 37% of traders and investors believe a Tesla-Apple EV partnership makes the most sense.

Many respondents noted Elon Musk's company is the most established EV automaker and would be the easiest for Apple to partner with, given its EV line up features the longest distance electric cars between charges, the company’s laid out plans for installing EV chargers throughout the U.S. and at-present has the largest EV market share.

Keep in mind "makes the most sense" for Apple and most likely to happen are not the same thing.

 

[FireMedic]

@ericmandela with a tweet that made a lot of sense to me. Not sure if heard this angle shared here. Obviously we won’t hear this from the paidstream media...

While some worry that @tesla converted $1.5B of cash to Bitcoin, I don’t hear them worrying that GM spent $2.95B on advertising in the US alone in 2019. Being a novel move, the conversion served to provide additional free press for Tesla. $TSLA

 

[TravelFree]

The only thing Apple can and should offer Tesla is Apple Car Play. I say that as a long time Apple investor and Tesla share holder with Tesla being my largest holding since last summer.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Today I've bought 6 more TSLA shares and half a bitcoin

If Elon is confident in bitcoin then so am I. Who knows more than the founder of PayPal?

None of the anti-bitcoiners have said it’s a bad move financially. All objections I have read are because it is in conflict with the Tesla mission.

 

[shrineofchance]

I've noticed that investors who are publicly very aggressive and assertive about their long position in Tesla can easily re-polarize and become very aggressive and assertive about divesting in Tesla. I find it weird and I want to encourage intellectual humility, self-doubt, and being open-minded and friendly toward people who have different investment opinions.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Do people really believe this morning was regular MMD action? It feels more like a large investor dumped/trimmed their holding.

 

[StealthP3D]

The only thing Apple can and should offer Tesla is Apple Car Play. I say that as a long time Apple investor and Tesla share holder with Tesla being my largest holding since last summer.

Apple should have to pay Tesla to agree to put Apple car play in their products.

Good exposure. Otherwise, why would Tesla want it? Don't answer that question, not the appropriate forum.

 

[amolina]

Do people really believe this morning was regular MMD action? It feels more like a large investor dumped/trimmed their holding.

Why do you say that?

 

[SOULPEDL]

Benzinga - half hour ago: Should Apple Partner With Tesla, Ford Or GM On A Self-Driving EV? | Benzinga

Excerpt:

About 37% of traders and investors believe a Tesla-Apple EV partnership makes the most sense.

Many respondents noted Elon Musk's company is the most established EV automaker and would be the easiest for Apple to partner with, given its EV line up features the longest distance electric cars between charges, the company’s laid out plans for installing EV chargers throughout the U.S. and at-present has the largest EV market share.

What if the display monitor on the Plaid not only rotates, but it disconnects as well. It's a wireless OS, complete with browser, gaming, and you just know productivity tools will ensue with the Tesla Remote Office is Just an Apple Nightmare (TROJAN).
Soon... "Apple begs to join Tesla."

 

[StealthP3D]

I've noticed that investors who are publicly very aggressive and assertive about their long position in Tesla can easily re-polarize and become very aggressive and assertive about divesting in Tesla. I find it weird and I want to encourage intellectual humility, self-doubt, and being open-minded and friendly toward people who have different investment opinions.

Those people are generally delusional in that they think their tweets can impact the share price.

 

[Tslynk67]

I have 1100c expiring in 2 days, and its value keeps going up even though TSLA is going down. What the hell? Lol

You weren't kidding - weird!

Still, if you're worried about it being exercised, won't cost too much to close the position

 

[StealthP3D]

Do people really believe this morning was regular MMD action? It feels more like a large investor dumped/trimmed their holding.

Markets ebb and flow but people have a tendency to want to explain movements using some mythical "large investor". While that can happen once in a while, most movements like you see today are just a reflection of the mood of the markets. More sellers than buyers.

I'm not even sure why it would matter if it were one large investor selling. I wouldn't presume they know something the rest of us don't.

 

[buttershrimp]

how bout announcement of FSD coast to coast for a price boost?