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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

corduroy

Member
Jan 30, 2018
634
4,393
Earth, for now (sigh)
Regardless of why the stock might be tanking, there will be a day of reckoning for all the call buyers and (even more so) the put sellers. Is now the time? I don't know, but eventually it will happen. All that "free money" given back and maybe more. Painful.

Why the doom and gloom? I sold a put on today's dip, and if the SP does hit $600 in 2 weeks I'll either happily take assignment at that price or roll before. Otherwise I keep the premium and buy more shares. I wouldn't call any of those outcomes painful.
 

chronoreverse

Member
Oct 14, 2020
252
669
Vancouver
Why the doom and gloom? I sold a put on today's dip, and if the SP does hit $600 in 2 weeks I'll either happily take assignment at that price or roll before. Otherwise I keep the premium and buy more shares. I wouldn't call any of those outcomes painful.
Short memories I guess. It wasn't even two weeks when we dipped below 800. Didn't even touch it this time.
 

Krugerrand

Is Cat
Jul 13, 2012
10,893
53,693
Tesla friendly place
I've been an investor in TSLA longer than Gary Black, will likely own longer than he. I was however surprised that he sold out. I think he raises some points that need to be considered. Having said that, I follow my own drum and not his or others.

https://twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1359096279071150083

1. I'm fine with them calling it 500K delivered. Sure they missed, but in the grand scheme of things they continue to execute.

2. EPS miss? I'm not an accountant, tough to judge. On one hand I drink the Kool-Aid and want to trust execs, on the other I've been burned by that before. Reasons given are all understandable. TSLA in high growth mode. I bet they could act in short term interest to pump EPS any time they want, I'd rather they grow like crazy, sacrifice now for the future. I hope that is what happening.

3. FY21 guidance? I think they generally guide low to start years and higher to finish. 50% yr over yr growth affirmed. I'm good with this. If they are sandbagging, and have great new S/X product, Gary might eat his words. Are they sandbagging? Either way, I'm really ok.

4. Bitcoin! OMG, I got no darn clue on this asset. I wonder if his flight to Ellis Island was to discuss this. By history I trust Elon. I do not invest in Bitcoins as I can't do any analysis that lets me sleep at night. I have a tough time with this investment but not such that I want to sell out of my stock.

5. Red flag call? So all the "delays" not addressed, if these were so important, wouldn't they be asked about? Were they asked and answers ducked? I was not keenly aware of CT or Berlin delay, recall issues (me thinks they were long expected and mr black said so his self). I think it comes down to "it's the batteries stupid". When they have enough they will sell.


I want to well consider what bright minds of finance think of TSLA. I want to be aware of errors in thinking and might be smoothing my thoughts to the situations, or even looking back and changing how I think of new scenarios. The reasons we invested in TSLA remain, we expect to hold for a very long time.

As a spectator sport, this is fascinating to watch. Having typed this, I will go back to sitting on my hands ( and silently cheer for bitcoin)

So the whole point of ‘considering’ is that it indicates you’re open to changing your mind. Except you finished your post with ‘we expect to hold for a very long time’. So you’re not really considering anything. What you’re doing is pretending to consider because that’s what we’re all told we should do. That’s the ‘smart’ thing. Listen to all sides. Way the options. Makes sure you haven’t missed something.

On record, I’m not ‘considering’ anyone else’s opinion. I did my due diligence years ago, made my decision and knew at that time it was correct. *looks around and over shoulder, rightness confirmed*

The time is long past when everything Tesla does needs to picked apart ad naseum. It matters not if one factory or one vehicle is behind expected schedule. Or that some dufus on Twitter announces from their pulpit they don’t like where Tesla parked some cash. Or that margins fell a few percent in a quarter because of the implementation of new technology. Not if you’re actually ‘expecting to hold for a very long time’.

I’ll only consider the opinion of someone I believe knows more about a topic than I AND I respect them. That limits the playing field quite a lot since I insist on doing a lot of my own research and I don’t hand out respect willy nilly. Even then I can’t be talked out of any consideration if it goes against my instincts, no matter who’s delivering it.
 

BlackS

Supporting Member
Feb 20, 2018
2,190
17,977
USA
Anyone else get the feeling that if $TSLA broke $800, it would have gone to $780? That was what i set buy buy limit order at :)
 

-_--_-

Member
Sep 1, 2020
5
27
At home, maybe outside
I think FSD needs to show promise outside of the USA. At the moment, here in the UK, consensus is that it is nowhere near worth the money.

Interesting. During my days of doing a daily M25/M1 crawl, I would have happily paid $10k to be able to relax in traffic. For me, FSD is fun & interesting on the open road but it really earns it's keep in heavy, stop/start traffic which should make the UK a prime use case.
 

ByeByeJohnny

Member
Dec 18, 2016
997
7,749
on top of a rocket
Interesting. During my days of doing a daily M25/M1 crawl, I would have happily paid $10k to be able to relax in traffic. For me, FSD is fun & interesting on the open road but it really earns it's keep in heavy, stop/start traffic which should make the UK a prime use case.
The problem is not that Europeans, or the Chinese, doesn't want FSD. By all reports from those using it here it's lacking several features and from what I read it seems to perform worse as well. It's just not as developed yet.

Once the version available here is better and monthly subscription is introduced the take rate should skyrocket.
 

StealthP3D

Well-Known Member
Dec 12, 2018
8,933
67,219
Maple Falls, WA
You should never put your feet on the dash, like that. If there's an accident and the airbags go off then you'll get badly injured.

Edit: OK, I'm at least the third person to point this out, but cannot be stated enough times how dangerous it is

This is the perfect example of a human tendency I've been applying to investing over the last year - Humans have a tendency to overly discount the likelihood of negative events with a low probability of occurring. Since an accident probably won't happen, having your feet on the dash isn't a problem, because an accident won't happen, right?

Negatory on that. Too close to too many people. Too well-known. Not remote enough. Etc.

Is this more to your liking? It has a nice level building site and would be super easy to defend:

314823f1a98458a57aefaa5aee868bc5.jpg


Well known, yes. But with natural defenses like this, who cares? Good solar and wind potential and I recommend sinking an elevator shaft down the center. The only fly in the ointment is that you couldn't gain title for at least 4 more years and it would take some key bribes in the right places.
 

Lycanthrope

S3XY old dude
Nov 15, 2013
9,089
69,271
At home
Why the doom and gloom? I sold a put on today's dip, and if the SP does hit $600 in 2 weeks I'll either happily take assignment at that price or roll before. Otherwise I keep the premium and buy more shares. I wouldn't call any of those outcomes painful.

Really, something for everyone today other than those that are forced to sell, and even then, over $4k per share pre-split, ain't mouse-nuts!

Looking likely that I'll get two $842.50 puts assigned this week, which is fine, they're being paid for by cash* made by selling cc's and puts. I will sell calls against them on Monday/Tuesday when the SP is up.

I also sold 12 of $852.50 calls for this week, going to take quite a reversal from here for those not to expire worthless.

*I have $176k cash in my account - all from selling calls and puts since mid-December, sure the stock will move against me at some point. The question is, do I care, or does it even matter as I'll then sell in the opposite direction?
 

lklundin

Active Member
Oct 10, 2014
2,972
20,323
Bavaria
I agree.

He was open from the beginning in how/when he invests in TSLA.
He tweeted everyone that he would exit his position if Tesla would have BTC on their balance sheet. And he did!
Why being upset if someone is consistent in his investment? He also kept his price target near $1000 for the coming 6 months.
You don't have to agree with his thesis.
Someone said it nicely: you live by the word, you die by the sword. Gary sticks to his principles

The problem is that Gary Black uses a social media account to express investment opinions - and only such opinions.

So when he tries to talk down the Tesla share price to his 50k followers it comes to mind that the SEC expressly forbids fomentation.
 

15Peter20

Member
Oct 26, 2020
332
1,586
Norfolk
Interesting. During my days of doing a daily M25/M1 crawl, I would have happily paid $10k to be able to relax in traffic. For me, FSD is fun & interesting on the open road but it really earns it's keep in heavy, stop/start traffic which should make the UK a prime use case.

TACC and Autosteer are pretty good for that to be honest. I do use them regularly for just that purpose.
 

aronth5

Long Time Follower
May 8, 2010
2,685
1,421
Boston Suburb
I think FSD needs to show promise outside of the USA. At the moment, here in the UK, consensus is that it is nowhere near worth the money.

Once beta is widespread in the US and Tesla can start to look at how it integrates into other countries' road systems maybe the take rate will increase.

For now, there are too many issues with TACC and autosteer to give any confidence or incentive to purchase other than a veiled threat that 'prices are likely to increase'.
Agree. I believe the next beta release is very important. Since it's been awhile since the last update significant improvement needs to be demonstrated to give credence that FSD will actually be a "thing". If improvement is minimal I suspect the stock price will reflect some new pessimism.
 
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