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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Her type of fund is different and wouldn’t replace hedge funds because they are a different thing altogether.

If investors see ARK outperforming their hedge fund then at some point people are going to question why they would be in a hedge fund and not with ARK

I personally would never put my money in a hedge fund when ARK is an option as long as they continue to perform as they do
 
Her type of fund is different and wouldn’t replace hedge funds because they are a different thing altogether. What she does is like running a mutual fund, but when successful, they also can get too big if they don’t close fund to new investors they keep having to buy more and more stock with new investor money, which isn’t a good reason to buy sometimes.

Also, she is hot right now, and popular, and can really screw up a powerful hedge fund firms’s big short of Tesla with her clout and simply by loudly purchasing more. Think of what she’s doing as a smarter more sophisticated way of squeezing shorts than Elon tweeting something in order to celebrity to piss off powerful short sellers. What Cathie is doing is legal and awesome and how it should be. Large hedge funds betting against companies just seems wrong.
Does that sound about right guys?
I have no issue with large hedge funds betting against companies. The problem is their actions after the bet to ensure they win.

Same thought applies in the opposite direction with pump and dump.
 
I think you're wrong. I think the 'short exempt' justifcation is used to imply that the Market Maker in question does not NEED to check to see if shares are available to borrow before selling short, and that they therefore just mark all their short sales as 'exempt' when the Uptrick Rule is in effect.
I guess you just want to be willfully ignorant because the Code of Federal Regulations has a very simple, easy to understand definition for the term "Short Exempt" and it never talks about borrowing or locating (skipping of the latter two being what Naked is all about).

The problem with that theory is that they don't mark all short sales as exempt, only 5.8% of them today. And that's volume is enough to knock down the last sale price in the order book enough so that they can then pour in with 20x the number of shorts which would not have been allowable milleseconds before under the uptick rule. Look what happened before 2 pm today. Unexplicable drops, macros steady throughout.
I think the percentage you see are because only a handful of FINRA members attempt to meet the legal requirement that they have their own (verified and surveillance audited) system for determining the current National Best Bid (NBB). In the absence of that it would be an obvious crime to mark a short sale as short-exempt so only that small fraction of FINRA members ever mark them that way. The ones who do probably mark all of their short sales as short-exempt which is why you see them tagged that way even at times when there is no up-tick rule and the marking makes no difference in how the order is treated.

The explanation for the "pourng 20x the number of shorts disallowed milliseconds before" actually makes my case that it is about the order being exempted from the uptick rule, rather than being naked. If a short-sale order is sent to the ISLAND ECN operated by NASDAQ for example and it is NOT marked as short exempt, then the ECN will use what it knows to be the NBB to enforce the uptick rule if it's in effect and reject it if the price is below the NBB.

But if you are a firm that has invested in your own system that determines the NBB yourself, then you can carefully construct that system to conveniently get the wrong answer for the NBB exactly when you want to (illegally) violate the uptick rule and, voila, the price/trade behavior you are describing happens. The large volumes probably requires that more of the non-FINRA entities have their own NBB determination system which I think is likely. Note that the trade behavior is completely independent of whether or not the short-seller did or did not perform their locate responsibility (i.e. whether or not they are (a) actually locating a borrow source, (b) using a market-maker no-locate EXCEPTION (not exemption) that is legally naked, or (c) failing to locate a borrow which is illegally naked.

Short sale orders can be both exempt and naked, or just naked or just exempt or neither. All are possible. There is no rule that short-sale orders be marked as to whether they are naked or not - it would have no affect on the operation of the order processing systems receiving the orders if their were such a rule. But the uptick rule is actually enforced by order matching systems to prevent trade executions of orders in violation of the uptick rule which is why for that purpose orders can be marked as exempt from that rule - it alters the behavior of the order matching systems.

Regarding your 2,000 word essays attempting to lawyer the language of the short exempt reporting, explain in simple terms why FINRA says on their own website regsho.finra.org that if you have questions about short exempt reporting, that you are supposed to call them on the telephone?

Why not explain it on the website? Do they need to know who's asking before they pick an answer? Congress needs to act to fix this, and the millenials on Wall St. Bets aren't waiting until they're too old to fight. This SEC exemption rule has been broken since it was created in 2009 and invites hiding while collar crime. Lot's of lawyering work there.

I don't disagree that short-exempt orders are ripe for abuse, it's just a different kind of abuse than you are claiming (which is an independent problem also ripe for abuse). No lawyering required - I guess you're too lazy to read a few paragraphs in the CFR, or maybe English isn't your native language so it's hard for you to understand. But I strongly encourage anyone who thinks I'm wrong to go read it for themselves. It's honestly not that long or that hard to read and understand.

Next, explain how Tesla's 5:1 stock dividend caused a 100% gain in 14 days without naked short covering. Especially the part about how many brokers of members on this site did not deliver the shares owed to their beneficial owners for 2 days AFTER Tesla rescued those naked short selling brokers with a $5B share offering (as I predicted on Aug 16 that exactly that would happen).
I don't know the causes for sure (nobody does). It could well have to do with kiting naked short sales. I've never denied the existence of naked shorting nor the abuse thereof. In fact I uncovered (and reported here and to the SEC) a very suspicious pattern of failures to deliver on TSLA stock in the SEC's database that strongly suggests there was some serious effort to cover-up failures to deliver which very likely points to trying to hide naked shorting.

I'll wait. Take your time. But no need for more lawyering language. Straight talk, please.
That's as straight as it gets. I'm sorry it's not a shorter read but you raised a lot of specious questions trying to cling to your mistaken beliefs as to what the order marking is actually about.

tldr; What I am saying is that when an order is marked as "short exempt" it does not have any bearing on whether it is or is not naked. It only indicates that the person placing the order promises that they accurately determined themselves that the order doesn't cross the market [the jist of § 242.201(c)] or is subject to the very unlikely narrow exemptions in § 242.201(d) that are actually permitted by law to cross the market during the uptick rule so that when the order is sent to an actual order matching system that system will not perform it's own checks whether it crosses the market and instead will just execute the trade if it does cross the market instead of rejecting it for violating the uptick rule. It says nothing about whether it is naked or not.
 
So my thoughts on Ark is conflicted.

So Ark gained most if not all their credibility through their conviction on Tesla, plain and simple. This brings all sorts of problems the market is dealing with currently.

Tesla's rise to fame has caused not only an stock bubble of any company that has the word EVs in any of their description, but also caused all sorts of other stock bubbles ARK decided to invest in that's not Tesla.

So Nano Dimensions is probably a good example that my friend went super bull on after Ark invested in it. I still don't see the appeal, it being a 2-3 billion dollar company now with revenue that's less than some of the people in this forum/year, dropping massively YOY. And also this company had money laundered before..so there are all sorts of red flags. But because Ark invested in it, the stock has done nothing but went to the sky prior to recent pull back.

There was a time when people laughed at Ark, but because of their bet on Tesla paid off big time, people are blindly following Cathie's every call and I can see how this can be a problem...just like all EV related start ups getting multiple billion dollar valuation as if all of a sudden new car companies no longer having less than 10% chance of succeeding. In fact there are EV related companies having multiple billion dollar valuation after uncovered fraud..it's crazy town all thanks to Tesla.

I still think how Ark valuated Tesla is completely speculative because it's based on human ride hailing program Elon is not even enthusiastic about. I see Rob Mauer's model mention it at about never.

Feel free to short Tesla if you think it's pumped entirely from ARK Invest. I'm not bullish on ride hailing myself but I will reserve judgment. The business isn't made or broken based on that aspect.

Also, what about SQ, Paypal, Shopify, Spotify and all her other holdings? Those companies have merits and would have monster returns, regardless if ARK existed or not. The top 3 holdings of ARKW touch Bitcoin. Did Mama Cathie pump bitcoin all by herself?

YOUR understanding is "plain and simple".

Do you see Cathie buying up every EV spac?

You want to blame her for stocks that she's but also blame her for stock's she isn't in either? LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

Nano Dimension is 2.25% of ARKQ.

If your friend's position is greater than 2.25% of his portfolio, than he thinks he knows better than Mama Cathie.

I have no idea what Nano Dimension does and I don't have the free energy I want to expend on it. If Mama Cathie wants to be in it, I'll be in it. But only as much as Mama Cathie thinks I should be in.

Holdings time frame is expected to be 5 years or more, but maybe Mama Cathie sells it next week. Who knows. That's what the 0.75% expense ratio is for.

If your friend wants to invest on his own beyond ARKQ - all the due diligence is on him. A total collapse of a 2.25% holding in ARKQ isn't going to kill it. But it might kill your friend if its 100% of HIS portfolio.
 
Feel free to short Tesla if you think it's pumped entirely from ARK Invest. I'm not bullish on ride hailing myself but I will reserve judgment. The business isn't made or broken based on that aspect.

Also, what about SQ, Paypal, Shopify, Spotify and all her other holdings? Those companies have merits and would have monster returns, regardless if ARK existed or not. The top 3 holdings of ARKW touch Bitcoin. Did Mama Cathie pump bitcoin all by herself?

YOUR understanding is "plain and simple".

Do you see Cathie buying up every EV spac?

You want to blame her for stocks that she's but also blame her for stock's she isn't in either? LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

Nano Dimension is 2.25% of ARKQ.

If your friend's position is greater than 2.25% of his portfolio, than he thinks he knows better than Mama Cathie.

I have no idea what Nano Dimension does and I don't have the free energy I want to expend on it. If Mama Cathie wants to be in it, I'll be in it. But only as much as Mama Cathie thinks I should be in.

Holdings time frame is expected to be 5 years or more, but maybe Mama Cathie sells it next week. Who knows. That's what the 0.75% expense ratio is for.

If your friend wants to invest on his own beyond ARKQ - all the due diligence is on him. A total collapse of a 2.25% holding in ARKQ isn't going to kill it. But it might kill your friend if its 100% of HIS portfolio.

I don't blame Cathie. I feel that just like any fund manager, ARK can hit or can miss so people should continue to do their DD vs just turn their brain off and follow ARK SOLEY based on the fact that they got Tesla right. My example of Ark's ride hailing thesis is to point out that they don't do the highest quality DD unlike Rob Mauer, and this is their biggest position.

The market is dealing with the aftermath of TESLA skyrocketing..which is leading to crazy euphoria about anything EV, anything ARK buys, and anything Elon tweets about like Signal and Etsy.

Ark's buying and selling has very little to do with Tesla's share price performance. The Fed stopped the bleeding and has nothing to do with Ark. Ark has been buying every day the last few days and made zero difference to Tesla's bleed.
 
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Bears jumping over rumors of a shutdown. Which is strange given that number of vehicles in the parking lot increased yesterday:
https://twitter.com/davidzhao365/status/1364776307792310277

But it seems Tesla took some downtime on some lines to do maintainance/upgrade that might have been forced due to production stop for Samsung in Texas. And maybe they decided to cut out Model Y SR brecause of this. But it’s not the end of the world to schedule maintenance/upgrades a few weeks earlier than expected and mostly we have heard this one so many times in the past and it didn’t matter back then so why should it matter now.
I think this actually happened at the least worst time - if that makes sense. They were able to complete most if not all of the overseas production and US deliveries are less of a logistics headache if they have to make up for time lost.
 
Bears jumping over rumors of a shutdown. Which is strange given that number of vehicles in the parking lot increased yesterday:
https://twitter.com/davidzhao365/status/1364776307792310277

But it seems Tesla took some downtime on some lines to do maintainance/upgrade that might have been forced due to production stop for Samsung in Texas. And maybe they decided to cut out Model Y SR brecause of this. But it’s not the end of the world to schedule maintenance/upgrades a few weeks earlier than expected and mostly we have heard this one so many times in the past and it didn’t matter back then so why should it matter now.

I am glad my video is helpful!
 
So my thoughts on Ark is conflicted.

So Ark gained most if not all their credibility through their conviction on Tesla, plain and simple.

Sigh....no, that's completely wrong. TSLA was simply their highest conviction stock and therefore their largest holding. The fact that it has been one of the best performing stocks has certainly supercharged the performance of ARK funds that hold TSLA but ARK's performance is impressive even if you back their best performer and largest holding out of the equation.



This brings all sorts of problems the market is dealing with currently.

Tesla's rise to fame has caused not only an stock bubble of any company that has the word EVs in any of their description, but also caused all sorts of other stock bubbles ARK decided to invest in that's not Tesla.

That's so wrong I don't know where to begin. You can't blame TSLA for bubbles in the stocks of other EV companies. This is the result of investors becoming aware that EV's really are viable and they are the future. If investors bid undeserving companies higher than they deserve then the fault lies squarely on the shoulders of those investors over-bidding. And it doesn't harm those who are not over-bidding. In fact, it can help them if they owned those companies before they were bid up. All they have to do is sell for a nice profit.

So Nano Dimensions is probably a good example that my friend went super bull on after Ark invested in it. I still don't see the appeal, it being a 2-3 billion dollar company now with revenue that's less than some of the people in this forum/year, dropping massively YOY. And also this company had money laundered before..so there are all sorts of red flags. But because Ark invested in it, the stock has done nothing but went to the sky prior to recent pull back.

I don't see the supposed problem here. So a stock got bid up too high and fell back down (according to you). So what? It happens all the time. Investors did this, not Tesla, not ARK. Why do you blame innocent bystanders who are doing what they should be doing?

There was a time when people laughed at Ark, but because of their bet on Tesla paid off big time, people are blindly following Cathie's every call and I can see how this can be a problem...just like all EV related start ups getting multiple billion dollar valuation as if all of a sudden new car companies no longer having less than 10% chance of succeeding. In fact there are EV related companies having multiple billion dollar valuation after uncovered fraud..it's crazy town all thanks to Tesla.

Again, don't blame Tesla for this simply because they are performing skillfully, blame investors. But this kind of thing happens all the time and I don't see the problem.

I still think how Ark valuated Tesla is completely speculative because it's based on human ride hailing program Elon is not even enthusiastic about. I see Rob Mauer's model mention it at about never.

Of course ARK's valuation of TSLA is speculative- that's the number one job of investors- to be speculators! That's how investing works (through speculating). I shouldn't even be wasting my time addressing such ridiculous assertions.

I'm stunned that you think an investor should do anything else other than speculate.:confused: And quit blaming Tesla and Cathie Wood for doing their job when the things you are worried about are 100% due to other investor's actions. If there is blame, put it on the people responsible. And it's not even clear why you are concerned- investors have a long history of bidding some stocks far beyond any rational hope - it all gets taken care of in the end.
 
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My example of Ark's ride hailing thesis is to point out that they don't do the highest quality DD unlike Rob Mauer, and this is their biggest position.

It's up to each individual investor to make those judgments. By all means, if you think poor analysis by ARK has caused the price to go too high, short it! People putting money where their mouth is, well, that's what makes a market.

Complaining that you think things are out of whack gets you nowhere.
 
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Well, the rally was nice while it lasted.

Thanks, poetry. :(

(Vogon poetry is the only exception)

Often cited, but to quote:

Vogon poetry is of course, the third worst in the universe.

The second worst is that of the Azgoths of Kria. During a recitation by their poet master Grunthos the Flatulent of his poem "Ode to a Small Lump of Green Putty I Found in My Armpit One Midsummer Morning" four of his audience died of internal haemorrhaging and the president of the Mid-Galactic Arts Nobbling Council survived by gnawing one of his own legs off. Grunthos was reported to have been "disappointed" by the poem's reception, and was about to embark on a reading of his 12-book epic entitled "My Favourite Bathtime Gurgles" when his own major intestine, in a desperate attempt to save humanity, leapt straight up through his neck and throttled his brain.


The worst poetry in the Galaxy is generally attributed to Paula Nancy Millstone Jennings of 37 Wasp Villas, Greenbridge, Essex, GB10 1LL, who died, of course, when the Earth was destroyed by the Vogon constructor fleet...

An example:
"The dead swans lay in the stagnant pool.
They lay. They rotted. They turned
Around occasionally.
Bits of flesh dropped off them from
Time to time.
And sank into the pool's mire.
They also smelt a great deal."
 
What she does is like running a mutual fund, but when successful, they also can get too big if they don’t close fund to new investors they keep having to buy more and more stock with new investor money, which isn’t a good reason to buy sometimes.

Cathie is not new to investing and is very familiar with different methods of valuing the worth of a company. If her rating system determines the company is overvalued, her rating system automatically moves other companies up the conviction scale. This leads to funneling new money into companies with a better projected return. There is no limit to the number of companies they can invest in.

In other words, if they determine a holding is overvalued, they will be selling it, not buying.
 
MODS: This may be of general interest to genpop , but off course, feel free to kick it to a sub-forum.



The only way that I can make sense of DOJO being generic is if DOJO is actually a trojan horse kind of tech for solving AGI !!
Is there a chance that this is actually what Tesla is trying to do? Or am I flying of a tangent here?
(How does that rhyme with Elons continued warnings about AI?)

Or, if DOJO does not solve AGI entirely, then solves an at least a large subset of AGI. Or perhaps doesn't quite solve, but boosts other known techniques by a significant order of magnitude - a kind of AGI runway. Which in the end may be the missing link for solving AGI ?..!
Maybe Elon concluded that FSD was close enough to AGI that he might as well solve for AGI. And then get FSD 'for free'.
If that is the case, then solving for a subset of AGI is worth a ... what is the level above?
Most of us are getting used to Tesla being 10+ startups. I used to think that solving FSD was worth a lot - to mankind, but also to us fans and investors. Solving AGI (or a significant subset) Danm! That is is 'huger than huge'.

If true, then someone PM Warren Redlich - his most crazy estimates are way too conservative!

(AGI: Artificial General Intelligence)

My take on it is that indeed FSD solves a heck of a lot of generalised AI, sufficient to be able to handle a lot of other tasks that are very meaningful both for general commerce & society, and also meaningful for nation-states. The implications of the "nation-states" aspect is going to cause some massive ramifications in the years to come.
 

And ofcourse they quote some FUD from a random guy called Gordon Johnson. “When considering Tesla had excess inventory in the fourth quarter of 2020, and has never been able to sell-out its production capacity, we see the company as currently demand constrained, rather than production constrained.” The writer calls him 'founder' of Research LLC. If I go to the Chamber of Commerce tomorrow and start FUD Inc., will I also be quoted by Bloomberg?
 

"Workers on a Model 3 production line in Fremont were told their line would be down from Feb 22 until March 7, said the person, who asked not to be identified because the information is private. Impacted staff were told they would be paid for Feb 22 and Feb 23 and not paid for Feb 28, March 1, 2 and 3. They were advised to take vacation time, if they had it."

This will probably push the stock price down slightly in pre-market and on open, Tesla will probably comment during the day?

As an aside: Is it legal in the US to not pay workers when production is shut down on short notice? In any part of western Europe that I know of it would be unheard of for the workes not to get paid, if not 100% then at least a substantial percentage of their salary (I think the English term is "redundancy pay"?)
 
"Workers on a Model 3 production line in Fremont were told their line would be down from Feb 22 until March 7, said the person, who asked not to be identified because the information is private. Impacted staff were told they would be paid for Feb 22 and Feb 23 and not paid for Feb 28, March 1, 2 and 3. They were advised to take vacation time, if they had it."

This will probably push the stock price down slightly in pre-market and on open, Tesla will probably comment during the day?

As an aside: Is it legal in the US to not pay workers when production is shut down on short notice? In any part of western Europe that I know of it would be unheard of for the workes not to get paid, if not 100% then at least a substantial percentage of their salary (I think the English term is "redundancy pay"?)

"Redundancy" is when people leave the organisation. I think USA English is "Severance Pay".

Western Europe - mostly true but probably not in UK, depending on contracts. We also have the lovely zero hour contract, fixed term contracts, lower employer tax on part-timers & temporary agency workforce concepts. Provides employer flexibility & no incentive to train or increase productivity.
 
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