Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

Also I added some June 2022 because that's the earliest expiry that I'm completely confident where Cybertruck and FSD will be rolled out in large numbers

I like this logic. Plaid on the track and Cybertruck in the parking lot should do a lot to boost retail appetite. FSD videos will be the capper. Will we have realized that huge chunk of FSD revenue by June 2022 as well?

Speaking of retail appetite.....I'd like to reiterate my position that stimulus check buying will have a material impact on TSLA. Especially with this level of discount. Near term calls are gonna look logical soon.

 

[Sofie]

Bought 75 more at 570$ today! Happy girl I am! Just 26 more to my goal this week to buy!!!!!

 

[Words of HABIT]

That ridiculously fast 53% drop was due to COVID. Don't see why you pick that number.... unless you figure it is as good as any other. So much of this is macro related. If the techs and QQQs firm up, Tesla will be there with them.

Would you prefer the 52% drop between June 19, 2017 and May 28, 2019? TSLA has had drops >50% before covid. This size magnatude of drops have occurred twice in the last four years, so it is not unrealistic to expect again. Upward trend is still positive. Not discrediting Tesla which is making amazing products to save the world. Unfortunatley World domination will not happen overnight.

 

[buttershrimp]

What headwinds are you talking about? Only one I can see is chip shortage being a possible issue which we still need more clarity on. Even then, that's a 1-2 quarter temporary issue. I literally cannot think of any other headwind Tesla is facing for 2021 or 2022:

- EV Infrastructure Bill
- FSD getting wide release/more eyes on it
- 4680 Cell production apparently going smoother and faster than expected
- Multiple reports of Semi going into production in Q3
- Rumors of Berlin first production in May, Austin in Sept

Like I only see tailwinds for the company and just increase its chances of doing 1 million deliveries in 2021.

Headwinds seems to be the wrong word for whatever it is that I'm trying to describe... I am simply asking myself, why is the market being stupid, and why is it continuing to be stupid around TSLA? Also, am I being stupid? Am I delusional? how delusional? I am calling external factors outside of reality "headwinds".....
Then I bring it back the fact that people against Tesla are vulnerable to disinformation and FUD. The tailwinds are there (I'm less optimistic by the EV credit but I'm really hopeful it happens), but I do think that numbers due to chip shortage or perceived "lack of demand" will create a headwind of FUD since people still don't understand the massive tech advantage. Case and point, look at the FUD regarding Tesla having less than stated range.... never mind the horrible logic, look at the narratives that can be created around say, S&X retooling, or even something perfectly explainable like Model Y delivery delays or shipping units elsewhere. The FUDsters are screwed long term, but still have an ability to manipulate things tremendously due to simple ignorance of consumers and Tesla's unwillingness to advertise a tiny bit to correct and frame the narrative (I think this should happen when our factories are capable of meeting demand that will follow).

 

[2virgule5]

Seems like S/X refreshed is based on an all AMD system, including the CPU.

SoC similar if not identical to semi-custom chips AMD is making to power PS5/Xbox One series X. This chip integrates CPU & GPU.

 

[jkirkwood001]

Well, the good news is Tesla's market cap has grown 300% and since a year ago when Tesla was the 3rd most valuable car company in the world. We're now no.1! So stop your whining...



The bad news is we're down $300 B since Jan. 26. That's - I believe the technical term is - "umpteen times" what Tesla was worth a year ago. (Insert pithy comment here about why our collective HODL belief is unshaken!).

nb. Stellantis growth rate may be misleading since merger from FCAU.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Would you prefer the 52% drop between June 19, 2017 and May 28, 2019? TSLA has had drops >50% before covid. This size magnatude of drops have occurred twice in the last four years, so it is not unrealistic to expect again. Upward trend is still positive. Not discrediting Tesla which is making amazing products to save the world. Unfortunatley World domination will not happen overnight.

Did you really just use a 2 year timeframe as a "sell off"? Which btw, move those dates around by a month or two and it vastly changes the percentage change.

Even if using a weird timeframe like that as a viable example from the past.......the vast difference in amount of money dollar wise in market cap makes the comparison quite honestly silly

 

[buttershrimp]

I have 4 dates currently. March 23 (farthest out possible) and Jan 23 (similar). July 21 This is as close to a yolo as I like to do. I figure that's enough time to get the EV bill passed for sure and for Americans to be over covid and partying hard in the summer. Also I added some June 2022 because that's the earliest expiry that I'm completely confident where Cybertruck and FSD will be rolled out in large numbers by. March/Jan 2022 seemed a little aggressive.

Model Y numbers in China could blow up all bearish narratives for good this year ...

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Headwinds seems to be the wrong word for whatever it is that I'm trying to describe... I am simply asking myself, why is the market being stupid, and why is it continuing to be stupid around TSLA? Also, am I being stupid? Am I delusional? how delusional? I am calling external factors outside of reality "headwinds".....
Then I bring it back the fact that people against Tesla are vulnerable to disinformation and FUD. The tailwinds are there (I'm less optimistic by the EV credit but I'm really hopeful it happens), but I do think that numbers due to chip shortage or perceived "lack of demand" will create a headwind of FUD since people still don't understand the massive tech advantage. Case and point, look at the FUD regarding Tesla having less than stated range.... never mind the horrible logic, look at the narratives that can be created around say, S&X retooling, or even something perfectly explainable like Model Y delivery delays or shipping units elsewhere. The FUDsters are screwed long term, but still have an ability to manipulate things tremendously due to simple ignorance of consumers and Tesla's unwillingness to advertise a tiny bit to correct and frame the narrative (I think this should happen when our factories are capable of meeting demand that will follow).

So I get what you're saying.......but man it sounds awfully familiar to this exact time frame last year with the panic of Covid shutting Tesla down. By Q2 P/D numbers, we'll have a clear indication of exactly how many deliveries Tesla is targeting for 2021 and I continue to think people will be shocked. By that point we'll also have Semi production close, Giga Berlin production close, as well as updates on Cybertruck and Giga Texas. I think by Q2 P/D we are already back at the 800-900 level and Q3 P/D numbers will be the catalyst to above 1,000/share.

Btw, all the things you listed as FUD and worries.......that's all stuff that's been there all throughout 2020. Some of the things you called out are things I've seen people continually repeat in their own echo chamber. There's no one(with actual money) listening to them. At this point, if anyone is actually thinking big time funds are buying/selling Tesla based on stories of less stated range, they're being foolish. We went through an amazing year in 2020 with FUD going full strength the entire time.

 

[EVWatcher]

Well, the good news is Tesla's market cap has grown 300% and since a year ago when Tesla was the 3rd most valuable car company in the world. We're now no.1! So stop your whining...



The bad news is we're down $300 B since Jan. 26. That's - I believe the technical term is - "umpteen times" what Tesla was worth a year ago. (Insert pithy comment here about why our collective HODL belief is unshaken!).

View attachment 642751
nb. Stellantis growth rate may be misleading since merger from FCAU.

I didn’t check but I’m pretty sure at current market cap the enterprise value - including bonds market - of Tesla is below VW and Toyota.

 

[elasalle]

Model Y numbers in China could blow up all bearish narratives for good this year ...

When are we expecting the Feb numbers to come out ? ... last Fri, it was mentioned it would be today(this Monday)

 

[kengchang]

When are we expecting the Feb numbers to come out ? ... last Fri, it was mentioned it would be today(this Monday)

Should be out this week

 

[ZsoZso]

Will seats become a bottleneck ?

Seat Foam Shortage Could Cut Car Production, and Texas Grid Failure Is Blamed

The recent Texas grid shutdown meant oil refineries didn't make byproducts needed for car and truck seating, and now automakers are scrambling for alternatives.

www.caranddriver.com

Ahh, so this is the chance for Chevy Bolt to shine in sales! They don't use no stinkin' foam in their seats So they are good to roll

 

[SN_8]

Here is my proven method to get over our recent paper losses:

Step 1) Watch the most recent All-in podcast and laugh along with the Besties at Chamath for losing $2 Billion last week. Think to yourself "it can always be worse" (blissfully ignoring the fact that you first need to have billions to lose billions).

Step 2) Watch Rob Maurer's 2030 TSLA valuation exercise, take a deep breath, and smile about the future.

Step 3) (optional) Take one shot of Teslaquila.

Repeat as necessary.

 

[buttershrimp]

So I get what you're saying.......but man it sounds awfully familiar to this exact time frame last year with the panic of Covid shutting Tesla down. By Q2 P/D numbers, we'll have a clear indication of exactly how many deliveries is targeting for 2021 and I continue to think people will be shocked. By that point we'll also have Semi production close, Giga Berlin production close, as well as updates on Cybertruck and Giga Texas. I think by Q2 P/D we are already back at the 800-900 level and Q3 P/D numbers will be the catalyst to above 1,000/share.

Btw, all the things you listed as FUD and worries.......that's all stuff that's been there all throughout 2020. Some of the things you called out are things I've seen people continually repeat in their own echo chamber. There's no one(with actual money) listening to them. At this point, if anyone is actually thinking big time funds are buying/selling Tesla based on stories of less stated range, they're being foolish. We went through an amazing year in 2020 with FUD going full strength the entire time.

Fantastic point about people with real money not biting on FUD rumors. It is interesting though, when I look at the seeking alpha piece on QuantumScape, "Sell your Quantumscape", even though it's much more vulnerable to rumors and arguments.... when there is a lag until the next catalyst, it's very easy to manipulate stock intentionally or unintentionally in media. Tesla certainly isn't immune to this but I like your point about real money versus retail investors.

I hope you are right about the SP!

 

[UkNorthampton]

There’s a 3 month backlog for the id.3 in Europe. Production is increasing and currently at 800 per day. Deliveries in China of the ID.4 will start this month. 300k production capacity. MY is 35% more expensive.

ID3/ID4 - bigger discount in UK than VW ICE. Brand new ID.4 has 14% discount already.

VW Group (for comparison of discounts/prices)
Seat Ateca 1.5 TSI EVO Xperience 5dr DSG *# £22,413 Save 24%
Seat Tarraco 1.5 TSI EVO Xcellence 5dr DSG *# £26,783 Save 21%
Skoda Octavia 2.0 TSI vRS Hatchback DSG * £26,788 Save 17%
Skoda Octavia 2.0 TDI 200 vRS 4x4 Estate DSG * £29,041 Save 17%
Skoda Kodiaq 1.5 TSI SE L 5dr DSG [7 Seat] * £25,829 Save 20%

Pure VW (all discounted, available now from UK dealers) - ID.3 has HIGHEST discount %
VW ID.3 150kW Life Pro Performance 62kWh 5dr Auto * £26,145 Save 21%
VW UP 1.0 115PS Up GTI 5dr * £14,848 Save 10.5%
VW Polo 1.0 TSI 95 Match 5dr * £14,695 Save 18.5%
VW Golf 2.0 TDI 200 GTD 5dr DSG * £27,952 Save 15%
VW Golf 2.0 TSI GTI 5dr DSG £29,770 Save 15%
VW Golf 2.0 TSI 300 GTI Clubsport 5dr DSG £31,845 Save 14.5%
VW Golf 2.0 TSI 320 R 4Motion 5dr DSG £33,680 Save 14.5%
VW T-Cross 1.0 TSI 110 SE 5dr DSG * £19,510 Save 13.5%
VW T-Roc 1.5 TSI EVO SEL 5dr DSG * £24,603 Save 15%
VW T-Roc 1.0 TSI SE 5dr * £19,695 Save 16%
VW Tiguan 1.5 TSI 150 Life 5dr * (new model) £22,975 Save 18%
VW Tiguan 1.5 TSI 150 R-Line 5dr DSG * (new model) £27,095 Save 17.5%
VW Touareg 3.0 V6 TDI 4Motion Black Edition 5dr Tip Auto £49,270 Save 20.5%
VW California 2.0 TDI Beach Camper 5dr DSG * £48,095 Save 12%
VW California 2.0 TDI Coast 5dr DSG * £50,857 Save 12%
VW Grand California 2.0 TDI 600 5dr Tip Auto [3.5T] £65,062 Save 12%

 

[Prunesquallor]

Dealer lots are filling up, I see.

What backlog?
View attachment 642737

Edit: what @StarFoxisDown! said.

 

[Eugene Ash]

Here is my proven method to get over our recent paper losses:

Step 1) Watch the most recent All-in podcast and laugh along with the Besties at Chamath for losing $2 Billion last week. Think to yourself "it can always be worse" (blissfully ignoring the fact that you first need to have billions to lose billions).

Step 2) Watch Rob Maurer's 2030 TSLA valuation exercise, take a deep breath, and smile about the future.

Step 3) (optional) Take one shot of Teslaquila.

Repeat as necessary.

Just did 2, and it was soothing. I like conservative numbers!

 

[OrthoSurg]

Bought 75 more at 570$ today! Happy girl I am! Just 26 more to my goal this week to buy!!!!!

Lucky you, got them at 585.
you are a real discount shopper!

 

[OrthoSurg]

Here is my proven method to get over our recent paper losses:

Step 1) Watch the most recent All-in podcast and laugh along with the Besties at Chamath for losing $2 Billion last week. Think to yourself "it can always be worse" (blissfully ignoring the fact that you first need to have billions to lose billions).

Step 2) Watch Rob Maurer's 2030 TSLA valuation exercise, take a deep breath, and smile about the future.

Step 3) (optional) Take one shot of Teslaquila.

Repeat as necessary.

Because of step 2 I added 15% more TSLA to my portfolio this morning