Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[eloder]

There's talk in DC of making the tax incentive for EVs even more generous than $7500, and Schumer bringing up the idea of no more ICE cars in the US. In a sane market, this would be incredibly bullish for Tesla, but the market right now is freaking out about 0.25% changes in interest rates that are still near their all time lows.

Nah, there's a near-zero chance of any really positive EV legislation passing in the current political US climate.

 

[elasalle]

Has the narrative ever changed? "Tesla's 4680 cells are old news technology, solid states are the future" is a headline already written.

The narrative for VW has. Everyone knew VW has invested in Quantumscape mths ago, and that did ziltch to their SP.

 

[ninpb]

Chevy's new marketing program... buy your Bolt at Costco!

I don't know about purchases, but the past 2-3 years, leasing Bolt's thru Costco have been very good deals. Speaking only for California, adding the CA rebates, utility rebates plus carpool stickers made it a steal.

 

[wipster]

I don't know about purchases, but the past 2-3 years, leasing Bolt's thru Costco have been very good deals. Speaking only for California, adding the CA rebates, utility rebates plus carpool stickers made it a steal.

I'm just waiting for them to be available through Amazon...

 

[jerry33]

I think that was GM that trashed the trolleys.

GM and Firestone is what I recall.

 

[Tslynk67]

Chevy's new marketing program... buy your Bolt at Costco!

Seems a bit too expensive, I'll pass...

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

VW Power Day Praised By Wall Street/Media, Tesla Battery Day Was A Flop

Only thing battery Day did (so far) was enable VW to Copy/paste their design/goals and mr Market shunned the original and rewarded the copy paste.

Narratives will change as soon as we see the 4680's. (in Semi or in Berlin MY, with initial cells being shipped from kato Rd.)

(+ the Better approach for Tesla going forward might be to go in Stealth mode until ready for production. e.g. Skip AI day, until what you showcase is ready to be delivered within 1-2 quarters)

This article judges Autonomy Day and Battery Day based on their impact on the share price. I am not sure that the aim of those days was to impact the share price as they were far too technical for analysts to understand (as was clear from the questions they raised at these events). From my (investor) perspective these days were hugely valuable as they laid out the vision and objectives of the company in these fields and it has been possible to judge execution against these objectives. This is far more important that any short term increase/decrease in share price.

In the same way VW have now set out their vision and objectives, and over the next 5-10 years it will be possible to judge both their execution against their objectives and how this impacts their SP evolution over this period.

Whilst I commend VW for what they have set out, it does not convince me that I should move my current investment. It seems you have come to the same conclusion when you state 'Narratives will change as soon as we see the 4680's. (in Semi or in Berlin MY, with initial cells being shipped from kato Rd.)' Without Battery Day it would not have been possible for that statement to be made.

 

[elasalle]

This article judges Autonomy Day and Battery Day based on their impact on the share price. I am not sure that the aim of those days was to impact the share price as they were far too technical for analysts to understand (as was clear from the questions they raised at these events). From my (investor) perspective these days were hugely valuable as they laid out the vision and objectives of the company in these fields and it has been possible to judge execution against these objectives. This is far more important that any short term increase/decrease in share price.

In the same way VW have now set out their vision and objectives, and over the next 5-10 years it will be possible to judge both their execution against their objectives and how this impacts their SP evolution over this period.

Whilst I commend VW for what they have set out, it does not convince me that I should move my current investment. It seems you have come to the same conclusion when you state 'Narratives will change as soon as we see the 4680's. (in Semi or in Berlin MY, with initial cells being shipped from kato Rd.)' Without Battery Day it would not have been possible for that statement to be made.

Whether they did battery Day or did it all in stealth mode, the end result - Semi, Model Y Berlin would have been the same. That was the point I was trying to make.
Regardless of what Tesla/EM says, the Biased market will not reward them. So in a way they only help the competition.
More Action/Results Less Talk .. I think we all know what is coming & yes we are on the same page.. cheers!!

 

[keydiver]

One of the greatest crimes of the industrial era was the sneaky way that Goodyear Tire and oil interests had electric trolley's removed from our cities in favor of diesel and gas buses. Just to sell tires and oil.

It was actually a secret plot by GM, Firestone, and Standard Oil.
GM Trolley Conspiracy

 

[Sofie]

So this whole rebalancing thing happens tomorrow and then we go back to trading more in line with the company fundamentals?

 

[kanweg]

Totally shooting from the hip here but maybe if they had failed to get in on time before, this matching price can mask their screwup. Interesting.

Isn’t it worse? The price is about 10% lower than that. Which means that 10% of the *sugar* load of shares that had to be bought for inclusion will be sold again By the index following funds. This will cause an SP drop, and the active funds will be gobbling them up for the Sale price.

But for those that have forgotten: I don’t know what I’m talking about.

 

[Curt Renz]

CNBC- 2 hours ago:

 

[Stars aligned]

Good question, but it's a "rebalancing", so every other stock in the S&P and their relative gains/losses need to be taken into account (must be one hellavu Excel the SPY Guys maintain), it's not about $TSLA SP in isolation

Of course it's skewed towards the big players, looking at these a couple have lost value since $TSLA inclusion, two are on-par, a couple have out-performed

My conclusion is that not much changes for $TSLA holdings, but could be that all the other 493 stocks had big gains, don't know, but my guess is that we won't see a huge sell-off on the back of this, but at least the MM's will have avoided more forced buying

If anyone with an actual functioning brain knows better, then shoot...

View attachment 645577

New lows ahead..... before it gets better

 

[mongo]

Good question, but it's a "rebalancing", so every other stock in the S&P and their relative gains/losses need to be taken into account (must be one hellavu Excel the SPY Guys maintain), it's not about $TSLA SP in isolation

Of course it's skewed towards the big players, looking at these a couple have lost value since $TSLA inclusion, two are on-par, a couple have out-performed

My conclusion is that not much changes for $TSLA holdings, but could be that all the other 493 stocks had big gains, don't know, but my guess is that we won't see a huge sell-off on the back of this, but at least the MM's will have avoided more forced buying

If anyone with an actual functioning brain knows better, then shoot...

View attachment 645577

Not sure how functioning I am, but...

Rebalancing has more of an impact on Equal Weight Indexes. The normal S&P 500 is float adjust market cap weighted, so a stock's performance automagically adjusts its representation. Corporate events such as share issuances or changes to float % (IWF) that were not substantial enough to be handled at the time are trued up.

 

[EVWatcher]

This article judges Autonomy Day and Battery Day based on their impact on the share price. I am not sure that the aim of those days was to impact the share price as they were far too technical for analysts to understand (as was clear from the questions they raised at these events). From my (investor) perspective these days were hugely valuable as they laid out the vision and objectives of the company in these fields and it has been possible to judge execution against these objectives. This is far more important that any short term increase/decrease in share price.

In the same way VW have now set out their vision and objectives, and over the next 5-10 years it will be possible to judge both their execution against their objectives and how this impacts their SP evolution over this period.

Whilst I commend VW for what they have set out, it does not convince me that I should move my current investment. It seems you have come to the same conclusion when you state 'Narratives will change as soon as we see the 4680's. (in Semi or in Berlin MY, with initial cells being shipped from kato Rd.)' Without Battery Day it would not have been possible for that statement to be made.

Autonomy day and battery day were very much about recruitment to me. They may have invited a bunch of investors to autonomy day but iirc there was only one guy who hade some questions about chip design and suggested he could connect Elon with some smart people to hire that really piqued Elon’s interest. Battery day much the same. Tesla is battery constrained but I think Elon seems to have realized where the real bottleneck is way ahead of anyone else. Now legacy is playing catch-up - and doing it poorly - to find batteries and such. Meanwhile Tesla’s focus is on recruitment. It’ll take a seismic shift for any talented engineer to think of getting a job at Ford or GM as being comparable to getting a job at Tesla. I bet most engineers put Tesla in its own category and if Tesla turns you down legacy auto is at best 30 companies down the list from next most exciting choice. When people say Tesla is 15 years ahead the number one way I think this is true is how Tesla attracts talent. Battery supply and AI developments are up there but Tesla being one of the most exciting companies to work for in the world is above and beyond more important.

 

[SN_8]

My TA is a bit rusty, but I expect a reversal to the high 700s any day now based upon this near perfect and highly reliable upsidedown batman formation.

 

[Singuy]

My TA is a bit rusty, but I expect a reversal to the high 700s any day now based upon this near perfect and highly reliable upsidedown batman formation.

View attachment 645637

Just looked it up, it's actually a thing..lol.

The "Batman" Chart Pattern Explained - Trading Heroes

What is the Batman chart pattern? It's not a harmonic pattern and it's not a head and shoulders. Learn the real definition here.

www.tradingheroes.com

 

[Unpilot]

My TA is a bit rusty, but I expect a reversal to the high 700s any day now based upon this near perfect and highly reliable upsidedown batman formation.

View attachment 645637

Damn...I see a upside down Aquaman.
So that means.......something ...something...technical

 

[XCare EV]

We did purchase ESA within a year of original purchase. Close to 90K miles now and ESA only good to 100K miles. My calculated total expenditures without ESA are less than the cost of ESA. Not sure if I will purchase ESA on our new X.

You can get an 8yr/100k at Model X purchase for $3416, instead of $4800 from Tesla for the ESA. www.xcelerateauto.com/x-care and scroll down to calculator. Longer terms also available up to 10 year/175k miles. Cheers, [email protected]

 

[insaneoctane]

VW Power Day Praised By Wall Street/Media, Tesla Battery Day Was A Flop

Only thing battery Day did (so far) was enable VW to Copy/paste their design/goals and mr Market shunned the original and rewarded the copy paste.

Narratives will change as soon as we see the 4680's. (in Semi or in Berlin MY, with initial cells being shipped from kato Rd.)

(+ the Better approach for Tesla going forward might be to go in Stealth mode until ready for production. e.g. Skip AI day, until what you showcase is ready to be delivered within 1-2 quarters)

Well, I can think of something battery day did....it gave me both the opportunity AND reason to buy more shares at $380. I remember thinking after the big run before and after the split, “How much more does TSLA have now?” Battery day felt like another chapter in the secret master plan to me and I further added to my position. VW may show a borrowed reformat of Tesla’s battery cell cost reduction approach slide, but I don’t believe for a second that they will approach Tesla’s ability to do the things on those slides.