Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Opus BC fan]

 

[MABMAB]

 

[elasalle]

Anyone keeping track of new Market expansion ...

Following the news, IIRC correctly ..
.Israel .. First cars delivered last quarter
.Romania, Hungary ... Show rooms opened
.Vietnam .. new Show Room in the works ...

.Japan -- drop in price, spiked demand

Someone posted yesterday that Italy and France also had great numbers this quarter ...

Q2 might need more ROW deliveries as US EV laws are finalized.

 

[Stretch2727]

110% increase Y/Y without S and X. Amazing.

 

[thx1139]

Wow. Gordo was almost spot on if true and had one of the most bullish Tesla delivery numbers. When did he become such a Tesla bull?

He is going to be very disappointed, but will also try to paint a picture that Tesla missed analyst expectations by 4K.

 

[elasalle]

So is El Gordo gonna be on CNBC Monday Morning

 

[EVMeister]

This is one time we're allowed to be happy GoJo was right.

 

[ZsoZso]

View attachment 650219

Deliveries 184,800, which is less than 188,000 (Gordo "estimate" ), so it is a miss by 3200 vehciles -- soooo disappointing...

 

[traxila]

Spectacular!

Regarding Troy, I sadly say that this was a huge miss for him. Think he needs to reevaluate his whole operation.

This number with only 2k S or X is simply mind bending.

 

[H Mak]

Looks like I picked the right company in which to invest half my life savings

 

[Pezpunk]

Looks like I picked the right company in which to invest half my life savings

the thing about owning $TSLA is it has a tendency to become a much bigger percentage of your portfolio than you anticipated ... without you doing anything.

 

[Pras]

These type of growth numbers can put shame to software upstarts!

And the funny thing is that Tesla expects consistent 50% cagr for multiple years. Manufacturing has become sexy again.

 

[Dancing Lemur]

GoJo just announced his Q2 estimates: eleventy four million vehicles produced. (Let’s see them hit THAT number [evil cackle].)

 

[bkp_duke]

SO GLAD I closed out all my Covered Calls yesterday.

Now time to sell some more come Monday!

 

[H Mak]

the thing about owning $TSLA is it has a tendency to become a much bigger percentage of your portfolio than you anticipated ... without you doing anything.

True. I have that problem, although it is my favourite problem

 

[MikeAtkinson]

Below is my estimate of Q1 production and deliveries. Tesla economist has come up with his estimate of Q1 production numbers:

The below is my comment on his estimate of 187,537

The Tesla factory numbers are capacity (NOT production), the 500,000 for Fremont needs to be discounted by about 15% to take into account downtime. That is a quarterly run rate of 106k at the start of the quarter. But model Y capacity is probably still growing (and maybe a bit of Model 3 capacity growth), so we can guess a run rate of 116k at the end of the quarter. Averaging those gives 111k - but the factory was down due to parts shortages for about an extra 3 days, so that is 5k less production. I would estimate Fremont production of 3/Y is about 106k.

There has also been some Model S production, perhaps a couple of thousand.

Agree with the Shanghai numbers for production.

As regards to deliveries there were some (but not many) inventory Model S/X left at the end of Q4 all of which have probably been sold. The limited Model S production this year seems to being delivered locally, so almost all those produced will be sold.

I think there were also some Model 3 which could not be delivered in Europe in Q4 due to late arrival of ships. This quarter the ships arrived a few days earlier, giving enough time to complete deliveries.

So my estimate for production (thousands) is 106 + 2 + 61 + 14 = 183 k
and for deliveries = 185 k

Edit: note: I did not do a start of quarter prediction but if I had it would have been 13k higher for production (no parts shortage shutdown, 8 weeks of Model S production) and 11k higher for deliveries (as I would have estimated deliveries = production).

Wow! I was pretty close! Got the Model S slightly wrong.

 

[BornToFly]

Looks like I picked the right company in which to invest half my life savings

Only Half?!? I didn't know we had such a Bear on this forum....

 

[BornToFly]

SO GLAD I closed out all my Covered Calls yesterday.

Now time to sell some more come Monday!

I'm trying to decide if I wait a few days to see how high the SP goes before selling my CC again....

 

[PV4EV]

Looks like I picked the right company in which to invest half my life savings

Only half ??

Lightweight

 

[dww12]

He is going to be very disappointed, but will also try to paint a picture that Tesla missed analyst expectations by 4K.

Don’t forget that demand is so low for S and X that they literally stopped making them in 2021. 0 produced.