Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

Totally get that. This has been said on this forum for years. The goal of issuing the EV credit again is to allow the public to afford an EV, not for the companies to turn around and up the prices...that cancels the whole thing out, so then what's the point? It's not just me in my specific situation - I know tons of middle class couples who still don't even have 1 EV.

It's widely understood that a tax credit for purchase of a new EV helps develop a larger market for EV's at a price that works for both the consumer and the manufacturer. This bill was always about jump-starting EV manufacturing and sales, not helping consumers. If it was about helping consumers it would have included new ICE sales as well.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Reports of refresh Model S VIN assignment from a SC in Indianapolis:

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/mmd6d4

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Reports of refresh Model S VIN assignment from a SC in Indianapolis:

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/mmd6d4

Awesome so we can all stop worrying about any major S/X issues. Seems like that other tmc poster who said he got mid April delivery date was right. Kinda wonder if they’re going to line deliveries with earnings and do a press conference on all these features of the refresh and V11

 

[Curt Renz]

Chicago Tribune - hour ago: Good Samaritan Tesla Driver

Excerpts:

“My baby’s been shot! My baby’s been shot!” she screamed, while grasping the motionless toddler in one arm and frantically waving her free arm to try and flag down someone, anyone.

The man, who had his driver’s side window down on his Tesla because it was so warm, said there were gawkers who drove past and then sped away. But the man, who requested that he not be identified, said his adrenaline kicked in...

He told them what happened, and they were able to gather evidence, including blood from his back seat. The man also shared the dashcam video that is installed in his Tesla.

 

[Nocturnal]

New car buyers ARE higher income earners. That's exactly who they are targeting. And the entry level Tesla costs less than the average new vehicle purchase!

You are missing the point. So if the average new car is 40k, what % of those folks owe a full 10k in income taxes? I know plenty of people that would be in the market for a 30-40k car who would not be able to take advantage of the 10k at all or at least not in total. Even these forums were full of people bemoaning missing out on the full $7500. The previous credit was a tax break for high earners, no way around it.

47% of people pay zero income tax. Granted that includes young adults and old folks, but it is what it is.

Remember The 47 Percent Who Pay No Income Taxes? They Are Not Who You Think.

A close look at the 47 percent who pay no federal income tax finds that few are off the rolls for very long, and that many are either very old, very poor, or both.

www.forbes.com

The standard deduction for a single person is about 12k. Even a single person with 1 child whose income is 100k a year would only be able to use about 3k of a 10k EV tax credit. I thought we were about the mission? Does that only apply to people making 150k a year+?

Intuit Credit Karma + TurboTax

Get all the tax credits and deductions you deserve with TurboTax®.

www.creditkarma.com

Most new car buyers earn less than 100k a year. Notice BEV purchases by income vs VW or sedans in general.

Automotive Trends: New Car Buyer Demographics

Demographics of new car and truck buyers. Who buys new cars or trucks? See new car demographics by age, income, gender and more.

hedgescompany.com

Edit. I'd also point out that the current credit is not easy to anticipate. There are many people who don't know what their tax liability will be for the current year. So their car could effectively vary in price by $7500, depending on the rest of the year.

 

[MP3Mike]

The standard deduction for a single person is about 12k. Even a single person with 1 child whose income is 100k a year would only be able to use about 3k of a 10k EV tax credit

No they wound be able to use ~$8.4k of it.

 

[Nocturnal]

No they wound be able to use ~$8.4k of it.

Yeah I think I double counted the standard deduction. That does ignore other common deductions like 401k, student loan interest, etc. though.

 

[StealthP3D]

The standard deduction for a single person is about 12k. Even a single person with 1 child whose income is 100k a year would only be able to use about 3k of a 10k EV tax credit. I thought we were about the mission? Does that only apply to people making 150k a year+?

Intuit Credit Karma + TurboTax

Get all the tax credits and deductions you deserve with TurboTax®.

www.creditkarma.com

I don't make the rules and I'm not saying they are ideal. What I did say was the credit was always targeted towards higher income earners but it's primary purpose was to jump-start EV production and sales. It does that by reducing the price disparity between an ICE car and an EV whether the manufacturer takes some of it or not. It's really a benefit to manufacturers who cannot make EV's cost competitive with ICE and doesn't really help Tesla make or sell more cars but it can increase their margins. Like I said, it's not how I would do it because it's not the most cost-effective way to increase EV sales.

Edit. I'd also point out that the current credit is not easy to anticipate. There are many people who don't know what their tax liability will be for the current year. So their car could effectively vary in price by $7500, depending on the rest of the year.

I didn't know whether I would be able to use any or all of the credit for the two EV's we bought in 2018 and I couldn't be bothered to check - I knew I was going to buy the cars with or without the credit. Even though I'm in the top 1% (net worth, not income) I hadn't sold enough stock to use any of it but it didn't matter, my purchases were not influenced by the credits.

 

[Criscmt]

Short squeeze due to high volume DITM calls?
@FrankSG @generalenthu, and others,
Thoughts?

 

[OrthoSurg]

To those thinking there will be lots of cheap Model 3’s around, I’ve been trying to find a bargain as the wife is frugal and I can’t find one.
this article confirms my findings. I’ve been stuck at home for over a year but do Plan to have to back in a few months so maybe I can get the timing right for a red Y as a commuter til the truck gets here.

A Tesla Model 3 invasion is starting in the US’ second-hand auto segment

“Teslas tend to keep their value longer than typical electric cars, with recent data from vehicle search engine iSeeCars.com concluding that the Tesla Model 3 is actually not a good car to purchase second hand for budget-conscious car buyers. As per the firm’s data, a good number of used Model 3s in the market are priced very close to their brand new cost, with some cars in the market being only $923 cheaper than their newly-produced counterparts.”

I never understood who would sell a Model 3 after only 2-3 years of ownership. what a non frugal blasphemy!

who wants to buy my Model 3 for sale, I am taking delivery of my Model Y soon.

ok, now I get it.

 

[SN_8]

I really hope this tax credit discussion doesn't morph into the same "who can responsibly buy a $40k car" debate that was had in 2018.

 

[Nocturnal]

I don't make the rules and I'm not saying they are ideal. What I did say was the credit was always targeted towards higher income earners but it's primary purpose was to jump-start EV production and sales. It does that by reducing the price disparity between an ICE car and an EV whether the manufacturer takes some of it or not. It's really a benefit to manufacturers who cannot make EV's cost competitive with ICE and doesn't really help Tesla make or sell more cars but it can increase their margins. Like I said, it's not how I would do it because it's not the most cost-effective way to increase EV sales.



I didn't know whether I would be able to use any or all of the credit for the two EV's we bought in 2018 and I couldn't be bothered to check - I knew I was going to buy the cars with or without the credit. Even though I'm in the top 1% (net worth, not income) I hadn't sold enough stock to use any of it but it didn't matter, my purchases were not influenced by the credits.

The purpose/results of the original credit are behind us. Now we have to decide the benefits of driving these costs down even more, and reducing negative externalities from ICE.

You would admit that you are not the usual case though right? I know more than a handful of people that will absolutely buy a Model Y instead of something like a RAV4 if the credit is here. Being on a fixed income with no net worth is very different than that same income with a large paper worth.

 

[tschmidty]

If it works like the point-of-sale tax credit in the Electric Cars Act of 2021, it's technically a tax credit that can be assigned to dealership/manufacturer/bank (in exchange for an immediate rebate). The interesting thing is the bill doesn't say the dealership/manufacturer/bank needs to give the entire value of the tax credit to the purchaser as a rebate, but it does say they need to disclose the full value of the credit to them.

View attachment 651841

Yeah, that what I was thinking about it being harder to manage since it would have to be handled by manufacturers/dealers. But as others pointed out, his language was pretty clear. As far as only getting to use some of the credit, make it refundable, problem solved. But a point of sale credit would be more consumer friendly, less to finance, etc.

 

[GrandEnigma]

Yeah, that what I was thinking about it being harder to manage since it would have to be handled by manufacturers/dealers. But as others pointed out, his language was pretty clear. As far as only getting to use some of the credit, make it refundable, problem solved. But a point of sale credit would be more consumer friendly, less to finance, etc.

It would make much more sense for a couple thousand dealers or a dozen manufactures to have to apply for the "credit" than 500,000 individual sales. The savings in administrative work alone would be worth many thousands.

 

[Mardak]

Like you said, anything can happen but it would be really stupid to continue to favor higher income earners in that way.

A good starting point is probably the approach in the detailed summary pdf of the Senate Majority Leader's proposal from 2019:

• To receive a voucher, consumers would first pre-certify their gas-powered trade in vehicle through a Department of Transportation (DOT) website to certify their vehicle is eligible to trade-in under the program, and to also look up the voucher value for the vehicle they would like to purchase under the program. Their trade-in vehicle must be at least 8 years old and in driving condition.
• Once a consumer receives DOT certification, that person would take their vehicle to a dealer or any other registered business that will properly dispose of the vehicle, and will receive a voucher once the vehicle is turned in.
• A consumer then takes that voucher to a registered dealer to receive a point-of-sale discount for the purchase of an eligible plug-in electric vehicle. Dealers would be reimbursed by the Department of Transportation at the time of sale. Each consumer would only be eligible for one voucher, and each vehicle can only be sold at a discount one time under the program.

One beneficial aspect of it being a point-of-sale rebate where only some people qualify potentially with different amounts (by having a gas trade-in and extra for lower income), stores would still need to provide a competitive price for those who don't have the voucher. And with Tesla's no-haggle pricing, this should avoid prices from increasing too much.

 

[WattsHappening]

I never understood who would sell a Model 3 after only 2-3 years of ownership. what a non frugal blasphemy!

who wants to buy my Model 3 for sale, I am taking delivery of my Model Y soon.

ok, now I get it.

Exactly!

We had every intention of keeping both our Model 3s for 10 years at least. Give the slower one to our daughter as her first car when she is able to drive in 2028. Couldn't imagine selling one so soon. But with the utility and value of a new Model Y, combined with resale value of the Model 3, it's a no-brainer for us.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

You are missing the point. So if the average new car is 40k, what % of those folks owe a full 10k in income taxes? I know plenty of people that would be in the market for a 30-40k car who would not be able to take advantage of the 10k at all or at least not in total. Even these forums were full of people bemoaning missing out on the full $7500. The previous credit was a tax break for high earners, no way around it.

47% of people pay zero income tax. Granted that includes young adults and old folks, but it is what it is.

That's a lot of sass for not knowing what you're talking about. There's a nice way to express these sentiments!

1) Large tax credits can generally be spread over multiple tax years. The ITC for residential solar for instance can be used across 3(or maybe 5?) years.

2) The bottom 47% of US earners who pay little net federal income taxes aren't buying $40k new vehicles.

 

[Knightshade]

1) Large tax credits can generally be spread over multiple tax years. The ITC for residential solar for instance can be used across 3(or maybe 5?) years.

FWIW, The $7500 EV tax credit was not able to be spread this way for consumers.

It's surely possible they will change that in the new version- but it's far from unreasonable to think it'll work the same way the earlier one did too.

There's half a dozen proposals on how to do an EV credit I've seen in the last couple years, we don't know what the final one will look like.

THAT said, this is an easy fix.

Make the credit refundable. Now you get it even if you don't have enough taxable income to cover the full amount.

2) The bottom 47% of US earners who pay little net federal income taxes aren't buying $40k new vehicles.

While that's true for many, it also confuses income with wealth.

I have a friend who became an equity partner at his law firm for example. Due to the way the transition from associate to partner works, he had a transition year with a VERY low taxable income... and then a lump sum very large partnership distribution the following year.

He could easily "afford" a new car either year... but the first he'd have gotten $0.00 of the existing $7500 EV credit. All of it the second year.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Today started out looking promising. Down early, but slowly crawling back in the first quarter. After that it was all downhill for an ugly 20 point loss to snap the 2 game winning streak. There is no doubt among the loyal season ticket holders that today was an anomaly and the home team will come roaring back later in the season.

Today
Score: 670.97
Margin of W/L: -20.65
Attendance: 26,309,433

Season
Record: 32-33
Total margin of wins: 766.72
Total margin of losses: -801.42
YTD gain/loss: -34.70 -4.92%
Avg margin of victory: 23.96
Avg margin of defeat: -24.29
Best Win: 110.58 2021-03-09
Worst Loss: -68.83 2021-01-11
Last 10: 5-5
Streak: L1
Avg Attendance: 41,052,802
Avg Attendance of Last 10: 35,474,527

 

[generalenthu]

Short squeeze due to high volume DITM calls?
@FrankSG @generalenthu, and others,
Thoughts?

Feels like that poster decided the conclusion and wrote some stuff to support it. I don't see anything unique about the put / call open interest. If anything this gamma which can cause a squeeze had been more muted than in the past.