Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[elasalle]

It would be wonderful if pre-market is a head fake.

We've seen this happen before

 

[Johan]

We've seen this happen before

1. Buy the rumor
2. Sell the news
3. Read the news
4. Digest the news
5. Buy the news

 

[larmor]

If there was a company that just sold regulatory credits, even for a few years and made a profit from it, then that company, such as "Regulatory Credits R Us", would be a viable entity. IF they sold these regulatory credits as a byproduct of their regular product, then even better. The goal is to maximize profit and for Tesla the mission is to facilitate the transition to clean energy vehicles. So i don't know why there is so negativity with sale of regulatory credits.

Also, tesla has invested heavily in capital expenditure to make their product, while other auto manufacturers refuse to do so. So if there is a way get an earlier return on investment, why not maximize that return. I would ask tesla, why are you selling so few regulatory credits, why not sell more, aka regulatory credits as a service.

Finally, no matter which side you are on, the air we breathe is for everyone, so everyone benefits from cleaner energy. If you drive a tesla, sometime for fun and go to a gas station, even with a mask, and take a sniff...

 

[TheTalkingMule]

1. Buy the rumor
2. Sell the news
3. Read the news
4. Digest the news
5. Buy the news

The old BSRDB maneuver! This looks like a classic delayed reaction to good TSLA earnings. MM's get to service the short hedgies by keeping down SP directly before and after earnings while making their own billions keeping SP somehow below $800 this week. Everybody wins!

All this short interest, synthetic or otherwise, can unwind in later weeks when there's less open interest. Hedgies lose tons of money, but MM's can point to their tepid support to maintain their vital relationships. Must be nice.

Very interested to see how we pop out of today's MMD.

 

[X Fan]

Recommendation: Don't read stupid. Don't repost stupid. Stupid is as....you know the rest.

Nah. Echo chambers are dangerous. You need to know all viewpoints and know what your enemies are spouting.

 

[strago13]

I was going to write a post on this subject today. This may seem like common sense to everyone on the board but I finally realized this last night.

After watching the stock price movement daily for ~4 years, I have come to the conclusion it doesn't matter how good the catalyst or news is (e.g. Q1 2021 results). Especially after S&P500 inclusion, the float is much smaller now than it was back in 2017. Retail investing just doesn't move a 700 billion market cap stock the way it could when TSLA was 50 billion. The MM's are just buying and selling the same pool of artificial shares from each other daily. Until a big whale plugs these numbers into their spreadsheets, we wont significantly move.

I will just leave this here with everyone which I wrote last Wednesday. Until we have a whale gobbling up those shares the MM are playing with, we are going to be at their mercy.

 

[Prunesquallor]

The sweet satisfaction of knowing the other Auto manufacturers are basically buying Tesla's new Giga-factories.
Then the lovely irony of the useful idiot's in the CNBC world saying that (regulatory credits)is the ONLY reason Tesla is successful.

THAT is some sweet sweet cake.....I'll take some more of that please and thank you.

The weird thing is that the revenue from credits is increasing. If that includes the EU credits, it makes some sense since the EU emissions limits get more stringent every year, but that would indicate that Stellantis and Honda are making little or no progress in meeting them on their own.

I know there were a couple of posts regarding the China credits. If this was the first year that VW started paying Tesla for that, it might also explain (part) of the increase.

Regarding your post, the irony is doubled, since these credits not only accelerate Tesla, but decelerate the completion.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Nah. Echo chambers are dangerous. You need to know all viewpoints and know what your enemies are spouting.

No. Those being purposely deceitful add absolutely nothing to the discussion. Their only purpose is to sow doubt in the hopes of getting weak longs to sell and stop new investors from entering the stock. That’s not to say we shouldn’t discuss valid bearish points, but the comments of those like Gordo do not belong here.

 

[jbcarioca]

The Panasonic article sounds like classical single tab cells in a 4680 form factor, or the writer is confused:

4680 have definite advantages, but 2170s are allowing profitable 3 and Ys today. While less optimal, Tesla can double vehicle output with increased supply of the current cells.

In my opinion, Panasonic recent comments have often been a trifle less than completely reliable, so informs mostly corporate senior management views, sometimes ill-informed. Panasonic has changed, not for the better.
LG Chem is another matter, they're becoming more aggressive and adaptable.
On both of those I could be wrong.
My earlier post was based on the prior Tesla statements that 4680's were to be used for Model Y in Berlin and Austin. Elon said Model Y for Germany would be a marvel. Electrek quoted his twitter Post at the time:

Elon Musk: Tesla German-built Model Y is going to be 'a revolution in auto body engineering'

Elon Musk is hyping up the upcoming German-built Tesla Model Y, which he claims is going to be “a revolution...

electrek.co

Those comments seemed directly connected to the new IDRA 8000 ton press, among other things but he also said the 4680's would be first used at Berlin:

Elon Musk Confirms Gigafactory Berlin First To Use New 4680 Battery Cells, New Paint Shop

At Tesla Inc's (NASDAQ: TSLA) battery day, the company showed its vision for the future of batteries: the 4680 cylindrical cell. These cells would allow Tesla's vehicles to go farther, charge faster, and cost less.Now after a story posted by Tesmanian claimed sources said the first 4680 cell...

finance.yahoo.com

That explicitly discussed the structural battery pack, and Elon did suggest all the new technology could cause ramp delays.

From all our perspectives it seems we might see companied use of proven cheap high quality cells for some time rather than the massive leapt 4680's we had expected. That probably also means there will not immediately be structural battery packs.

So the best we can probably expect is more delay with 4680 mass deployment. That also means higher costs due to the packaging efficiencies and cost advantages promised by 4680's.

Am I missing something important?

It seems reasonable to assume that we'll see most of the growth regardless, although with many changes in plans. My question is what impact these developments will have on the next two years of production.
There still is Berlin Y, Austin Y and Cybertruck plus Semi, Plaid+ and Roadster. That si quite a large amount of potential risk, is it not? Then there will be the China-design and Berlin-design vehicles which almost certainly will have unexpected changes or delays if 4680's suffer more delay.

This is a slight departure from my more typical unbridled optimism.

A major mitigate seem to be the continuing success of IDRA innovations. Will the ultragigapress continue that story? The track record suggests it probably will. That is a huge advance even if 4680's suffer delay.

 

[MABMAB]

Not obvious to me.
I want to know batteries.
He already talked difficulty to FSD
Nothing else to learn pertaining to earnings, sales, profits pertaining to DOJO cause it isn't able to affect the bottom line.

Elon teased this button for FSD 9 or whatever a while ago, keeps delaying
DOJO is a tease.

If the call is an hour long, we are halfway through without getting much out of it.
This is what he should do on Joe Rogan while getting drunk in an all day program

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I will just leave this here with everyone which I wrote last Wednesday. Until we have a whale gobbling up those shares the MM are playing with, we are going to be at their mercy.

The sharpest share price moves in TSLA tend to be on short covering, not necessarily longs accumulating. TSLA, I believe, still is the single largest short position in the world by $.

Yes good news and buying can spike the stock, but it's usually shorts doubling-down over and over until they run out of willpower(and credit). I'd love to believe we're toward the end of another such cycle, but I think we may be just at the beginning.

The logic appears sound. Wait for TSLA inclusion and then lean on it until it gives back 40%. I think 1Q execution makes it clear that ain't happening, now we wait and see how long it takes the market to figure it out. My money is on the end of summer.

Edit: Correction, my money was on this week. My new guess is the end of summer.

 

[thx1139]

Use at your own discretion

 

[corduroy]

Our old “buddy” Charley Grant, the snake in the grass spouting ”shorty points”, back in the WSJ coverage beat throwing shade at the earnings:

Tesla Makes More Money Trading Bitcoin Than Selling Cars

Bitcoin trading and regulatory credits, not auto sales, helped power Tesla to a record profit.

www.wsj.com

I don't care if they made record profits selling beanie babies, they key here is record profits. Finding other ways to supplement revenue, while growing at an insane rate is genius.

 

[viridi]

This is a typical day after earnings where the shorts throw out all the stops to make people believe their twisted narrative that a good earnings report from Tesla is actually bad. We need to give it a few days to see where things settle to understand the true reaction to the earnings report. CNBC is, of course, not helping the stock price, and is helping shorty with capping any attempt to bounce back this morning.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Just a titbit, funny how in this table (and a few other paragraph titles) Tesla changed the name from 'Fremont' to 'California'. Used to be Fremont everywhere. Makes sense.

I wonder if they are doing this because hardly anyone outside of the SF Bay Area knows where Fremont is.

 

[henchman24]

While the ER Call was pretty Meh........not sure how you're getting that the earnings report wasn't anything but amazing

- Gross Margins improved without S/X
- S/X had a direct 200 million hit to earnings.
- Elon's pay package had a bigger hit than expected which simply means less of a hit in the future
- When S/X are actually back to full production, that 200 million hit turns into anywhere from a 300-500 million swing (200 million hit + the actual profits from selling 20-25k S/X's in a quarter).

For Tesla to actually beat Non-GAAP and expand margins with that 200 million hit thanks to S/X downtime is pretty amazing.

Amazing would have been a beat on GAAP, no BTC sale addition to beat estimates, Tesla Energy not being a drag on company margins (personally my biggest gripe), and no regulatory credit surprise (this isn't bad at all IMO, but unexpected jumps and contributions to margin by something many project to lessen causes questions). I agree this sets up for the future to really jump, but that is just a projection right now and not in the earnings yet.

You also can't just pull out 200m for S/X as it is a real cost, not all of that is one-time, and this is the second quarter in a row with a disclaimer about extra costs to update the car. It will increase the margins going forward on S/X as they accelerated some of the expenses, but that is a projection and it seems like we are Q3 (my guess) or Q4 away from that 15-20k S/X level. Q2 is probably under 4k. Which means, they probably won't add much of anything for Q2 especially as they are still not ready to deliver.

My takeaway from the earnings here is that Tesla's base is as strong as ever and provided they can execute, Q3 or Q4 is going to be a monster (at least on the automotive side). I think it will be Q3 when they can get 17+k S/X added to the bottom line, but if that line continues to be a drag, it could be Q4. This report hurts in the near term because most valuation models heavily weigh current and next year projections... and Tesla gave reasons to doubt Q1 with some one offs and Q2 is not off to a great start with S/X still not off the ground. Which will cause revisions lower for 2021 as a whole... I think the consensus EPS for 2021 will end up dropping to the 3.90-4.10 range from the mid 4 range now. If 2022 doesn't revise up, this naturally causes price targets to lower.

 

[Joe F]

I love how TV talking heads knocked Tesla for having a "large iPad" for a display, and not knobs, dials and other outdated hardware.

Now, I just heard yet another on CNBS (see, I know have adopted cnBS) praising the EQS 55+ inch "screen" as blowing the Tesla "small" 17 inch screen away: "It's beautiful" he exclaimed!

I guess beauty is in the eye of the beHODLer.

 

[thx1139]

This is a typical day after earnings where the shorts throw out all the stops to make people believe their twisted narrative that a good earnings report from Tesla is actually bad. We need to give it a few days to see where things settle to understand the true reaction to the earnings report. CNBC is, of course, not helping the stock price, and is helping shorty with capping any attempt to bounce back this morning.

So just checked Q4 2020 earnings release was Jan 27 and on that day stock dropped 18.93 before earnings release. Next day it dropped -28.73.
Q3 2020 day of release down 8.89 and day after up 0.7
Q2 2020 day of release up 1.53 and day after down 4.1

 

[bkp_duke]

is anyone else looking at this with loving eyes, energy storage?
the US is more or less 5 electrical grids
Texas, ERCOT, is a disaster, as proven by multiple failures over the last decade, a low hanging fruit that needs a lot of energy storage to mitigate and remove outages at the worst of times

Are Texas and ERCOT one inflection point in the rising curve for Tesla Energy growth

The CA grid is equally as bad, as evidenced by multiple failures of the operators inability to mitigate factors related to high wind and fire risk.

I myself, personally, have literally sold 50+ powerwalls in our neighborhood alone due to the prolonged blackouts (36h and longer).

 

[Christine69420]

Exxon Mobile is shutting down it's refinery in Norway

Slagen refinery operates in an increasingly challenging market, characterized by strong competition, evolving regulatory measures and falling demand leading to overcapacity in the market. In this environment the continued Slagen refinery operation is not economically viable over the long term.

Norway had 2 refineries - now down to one - the Equinor refinery at Mongstad is still operative.

Source: News releases | ExxonMobil Norway