Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[RobStark]

Automotive "expert" does not think Cybertruck will affect F150 sales.

I'm sure those half million deposits mean nothing.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1387520202552791040

F Series is production constrained (by microchips among other components) not demand constrained.

A million refundable $100 Cybertruck reservations doesn't seem to be affecting demand for F Series so far.

Ford Q1 2021 Sales Up Thanks to F-Series, Bronco Sport - The News Wheel

Ford is off to a fast start in 2021 thanks to strong Q1 sales from heavy hitters like the Mustang Mach-E, F-150, and Bronco Sport.

thenewswheel.com

 

[Todd Burch]

What happens to F150 and other truck sales when we see gas prices go up significantly this summer as predicted?

IMO Ford, having abandoned production of sedans, may have put itself in a bad place. If their moneymaker (big trucks) sees a big hit due to increased fuel costs, they have no savior.

 

[RobStark]

What happens to F150 and other truck sales when we see gas prices go up significantly this summer as predicted?

IMO Ford, having abandoned production of sedans, may have put itself in a bad place. If their moneymaker (big trucks) sees a big hit due to increased fuel costs, they have no savior.

Unless gas prices average above $5/gallon nationwide absolutely nothing.

Getting out of sedans is absolutely 100% the right call for Ford.

Making unibody crossovers like the Bronco Sport instead is absolutely the right call.

Ford Ecosport subcompact CUV gets 28 MPG cost about $500 more to make than a Focus sedan but can be sold for a $4k premium over the Focus sedan.

Not authorizing a 30 GWh Plus battery factory yesterday is absolutely the wrong call for Ford.

 

[lascavarian]

One of these should be in the Earnings Reports.

Agreed. It adds clarity. I think the market likes it when the regulatory credits are less of a portion of the operating profit. The crypto trade was what kept regulatory credit (as a dollar amount) from exceeding operating profit if I am reading it correctly.

I think the third quarter should be very interesting If the chip issue moderates a bit. There are costs associated with designing and qualifying chip work-arounds that could reduce R&D a bit.

Ford is saying chip shortages will cut Q2 vehicle production in half.

 

[jeewee3000]

In my case I respond to the Tweet about how misleading it is

But I agree, maybe not the place for all this - a thread of "current FUD" where those of us inclined to do so could help fight the good fight, that would be useful

Uhm...that thread has been live and stickied for years:

Articles re Tesla—Fact or Fiction?

Collectively we often address writings that sow fear, uncertainty and doubt (FUD) about Tesla Motors in particular and the commercial viability of EVs in general. James and I are creating this new thread to provide a single place to shine some light on these articles. As always, comments about...

teslamotorsclub.com

The articles: fact or fiction?(which FUD falls into) thread.

 

[jerry33]

What happens to F150 and other truck sales when we see gas prices go up significantly this summer as predicted?

IMO Ford, having abandoned production of sedans, may have put itself in a bad place. If their moneymaker (big trucks) sees a big hit due to increased fuel costs, they have no savior.

Yes, this is the main point. Let gas get expensive and people will ditch them as fast as possible.

 

[nativewolf]

Yes, this is the main point. Let gas get expensive and people will ditch them as fast as possible.

Nothing. Living in truck oriented farming area, nothing. Now that the suburbs are buying trucks, who knows. Ford is not run by the worst idiots like over at GM or FCA. They have launched a credible EV, needs work but for a first try it is every bit as good as an ID3/4 from VW. They have plans to go EV on the F150. The company that has the head stuck in the sand is FCA. If people move to EV trucks long term FCA has no answer.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Macros are way up this morning:

NASDAQ-100 Futures +147.25 +1.06% 07:22:29​

...and yet 'somebody' doesn't want TSLA tracking macros at their Beta:

TSLA Pre-Market Quotes Live​

Data last updated Apr 29, 2021 07:27 AM ET.​

Consolidated Last Sale $699.72 +5.32 (+0.77%)​

Pre-Market Volume 102,216​

Pre-Market High $703.8 (04:23:39 AM)​

Pre-Market Low $698.1 (07:20:49 AM)​

The recent pattern has been for MMs to create a drop After-hrs and in the Pre-Market, then for the the SP to rebound after the main session opens, only to be walked down on low volume thru the day. Max Pain is 715 this morning. Let's see what the day brings!

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Does anyone know a reason why Tesla couldn't just issue tokenized shares directly to the market?

S&P DJI has a policy against it components having multiple share classess. The few S&P 500 components that do have multiple classes (notably Alphabet w. GOOG / GOOGL) were grandfathered in.

 

[traxila]

Long front page FUD / hit piece in WSJ today on all things Musk.

Elon Musk’s War on Regulators

The Tesla and SpaceX chief has become one of the world’s most successful entrepreneurs by reinventing industries from electric cars to rockets. Along the way, he’s also rewritten the rules of engagement with U.S. regulators.

www.wsj.com

Hits on all businesses and basically catalogues a lot of FUD over the years in making its case. Hilarious how you can spout lies for years and then assemble them into a list as incontrovertible evidence that something indeed is going on.

Elon’s response as per the article when asked? He sent them a ‘poop’ emoji.

 

[Dancing Lemur]

I'm an amateur dilettante when it comes to options, but I was looking at this option today, too. But then I saw that you can buy a March 2023 1000/1300 call spread for $45 (buying the $1000 for $175 and selling the $1300 for $130).

So, per my calculations, if I held both to expiration:

--With the spread, I can more than 6x my money if TSLA is above 1300 in 2 years ((1300-1000) x 100 shares = 30k.

--But if I just bought the straight $1000 call at $175, TSLA would have to be over $2050/share in March 2023 for me to 6x my money.

Of course, anything beyond $2050, and the straight call option would be more lucrative, as I'm capped at 30k with the spread.

Now I recognize that's a huge incentive (not being capped), plus the straight call will be more volatile in the short-term (i.e. potentially more profitable in the short term if you don't hold to duration).

But, man, that call spread sure seemed like an "easy" "low-risk" "low stress" way to 6x your money in two-years play (famous last words).

But again, I'm a rank amateur when it comes to options. Am I missing anything?

You are not missing anything. Yes, you can 6x your money betting that the SP is 85% higher in March ‘23 than now.

I think that’s a pretty good deal — those March calls are cheap. As you note, the spread is the more conservative play of the two. Buying the naked calls would also give you the ability to sell shorter-term calls against them (but as that’s so far out of the money right now, the stock would first have to rise quite a bit so you could sell calls at similar strikes without using margin).

The spread is a set-it-and-forget-it trade. If you don’t need the money for 2 years and you don’t want to play around with the position, thats a hard return to beat. But if you need to cash it out before expiry, that will cost you, unless both calls are deep ITM.

Just keep in mind that both are worth zero in ‘23 with a SP under 1000. While that doesn‘t seem possible now, who knows. Shares don’t have that issue; hence the difference in a 85% vs a 500+% return.

With as flat as we’ve been for so long, the IV is very low and there are great long-term options to be had all over the board. Somewhat an advice.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

June 2023 options are now available, don't think they were yesterday.

 

[Knightshade]

Nothing. Living in truck oriented farming area, nothing. Now that the suburbs are buying trucks, who knows. Ford is not run by the worst idiots like over at GM or FCA.

GM recently announced they're investing in a second battery factory and have sold so many EVs they're the only company other than Tesla to have burned through the original US credit already.

Ford recently announced they're forming a group to "study" the idea of building a first battery factory, and only in the last few months finally launched a real BEV- that they're unable to produce in really large numbers, and most of which have to go to Europe since the fines are worse there.

I'm gonna have to disagree with you about which one is run by the worst idiots.

 

[Singuy]

Macros are way up this morning:

NASDAQ-100 Futures +147.25 +1.06% 07:22:29​

...and yet 'somebody' doesn't want TSLA tracking macros at their Beta:

TSLA Pre-Market Quotes Live​

Data last updated Apr 29, 2021 07:27 AM ET.​

Consolidated Last Sale $699.72 +5.32 (+0.77%)​

Pre-Market Volume 102,216​

Pre-Market High $703.8 (04:23:39 AM)​

Pre-Market Low $698.1 (07:20:49 AM)​

The recent pattern has been for MMs to create a drop After-hrs and in the Pre-Market, then for the the SP to rebound after the main session opens, only to be walked down on low volume thru the day. Max Pain is 715 this morning. Let's see what the day brings!

Cheers!

Most high beta stocks are not following their beta as macro is mainly driven by appl and FB earnings. I am not looking for much today, just a close above 704.

 

[Chenkers]

Ridiculous. Zach cannot ever be Tesla CEO as he's not an engineer. He'll be a fine CEO of some other company someday. But not Tesla.

From Zach's wiki page (Zach Kirkhorn - Wikipedia):

"From 2002 to 2006, Kirkhorn studied both Economics at The Wharton School and Mechanical Engineering and Applied Mechanics at the University of Pennsylvania as part of the Jerome Fisher Program in Management and Technology. In 2013, he received an MBA from Harvard Business School."

Even if Zach never worked as a design engineer he would still know a massive amount about automative engineering through being on Teslas leadership team and managing cost efficiencies across all areas of Tesla's business. Note Elon also attended the Universtity of Pennsylvania and Wharton school but instead studied Physics as his second degree.

 

[CatB]

One of these should be in the Earnings Reports.

But this picture:
- shows that profits would go negative without the cryptocurrency sale and the regulatory credits
- doesn’t show investments in new factories
so It reinforces the story that Tesla‘s core business is unprofitable and would fail without regulatory credits and ‘gambling’ on cryptocurrency.

 

[jbcarioca]

Based on ship load, are we on par or exceeding other quarters so far? You don't see any production issues right?

Without speaking for

Game over! When you're building charging infrastructure in Tasmania, what worlds are left to conquer?

Supercharger - Devonport, Tas

As mentioned in TOCA's April member update: Tesla is also at work constructing new Supercharging sites to enable convenient fast charging at additional routes across Australia. Keep an eye out for new locations coming soon in Devonport, TAS; Toombul, QLD; Geelong, VIC; Yea, VIC; Perth, WA...

teslamotorsclub.com

Africa, South America, South Asia and Southeast Asia plus places like Alaska, Russia, almost all of the Middle East. Even though that was slightly tongue-in-cheek we do need to remember that roughly a third of the world new vehicles sales markets are not addressed at all by Tesla. Virtually all of those have pretty poor EV charging infrastructure, so the new Chinese Supercharger plant and others to come will be very busy for at leas a decade. By the EV adoption will be the norm so Tesla will need many, many more Supercharger, Destination Charger and residential charger equipment and installations.

 

[traxila]

Here we have a positive piece from Barron, basically ridiculing the Bear position of foaming at the mouth about EV credits. Short version: Don't hate the playa for the game. Also points out how Tesla lost the 7,500.00 tax credit in US but adapted and is still crushing sales.

Of course, he decides to use analogies that center on my NY Jets losing games....sigh.

Tesla Stock Has Many Risks. EV Credits Isn't One of Them.

Falling regulatory credits at some undefined point in the future aren't a threat to Tesla's stock.

www.barrons.com

 

[dgodfrey]

2 more:
The question "Why hasn't traditional auto build out charging over the last 5 years" sets of a rant, where Sandy despairs re. traditional auto, saying they looked in the rear view mirror whereas Tesla saw the future. 'This is why traditional auto will never built charging, just as they didn't built gas stations.'
TS 1:13:52
"Do I sound bitter? I am bitter!
I said: 'You should really get into EVs. You should really pay attention to Tesla.'
And what I got back was:'Ha ha ha those guys will never catch us'
Kind of tough that what I predicted 6 years ago has come to fruition.
"

Not Tesla-specific, but re. quality engineering versus penny wise, pound foolish thinking:
TS 1:30:4
"Sandy's rule is: "Don't save me any money - I can't afford it!"

I started watching his latest video you're referencing and have only made it about halfway as it's about 90 minutes but he's beginning to (or at least it's just recently started to annoy me) toot his own horn every chance he gets. I can't imagine what it's like to hire him to provide feedback when his attitude seems a bit arrogant maybe. Not to say I don't get moist listening to him praise Tesla now for pretty much everything but if he really is claiming that he's been promoting Tesla for 6 years, my memory is garbage.

About 3 years ago, his first review of Tesla on Autoline with John McElroy was scathing and not undeserved. Without rewatching it, the impression I got was that Tesla was garbage and an embarrassment in his eyes. To now claim he saw Tesla's potential 6 years ago is BS.
Now if he's claiming that he saw EV's as the only path forward 6 years ago, that could be true and my previous statement should be ignored.

 

[Chenkers]

I'm an amateur dilettante when it comes to options, but I was looking at this option today, too. But then I saw that you can buy a March 2023 1000/1300 call spread for $45 (buying the $1000 for $175 and selling the $1300 for $130).

So, per my calculations, if I held both to expiration:

--With the spread, I can more than 6x my money if TSLA is above 1300 in 2 years ((1300-1000) x 100 shares = 30k.

--But if I just bought the straight $1000 call at $175, TSLA would have to be over $2050/share in March 2023 for me to 6x my money.

Of course, anything beyond $2050, and the straight call option would be more lucrative, as I'm capped at 30k with the spread.

Now I recognize that's a huge incentive (not being capped), plus the straight call will be more volatile in the short-term (i.e. potentially more profitable in the short term if you don't hold to duration).

But, man, that call spread sure seemed like an "easy" "low-risk" "low stress" way to 6x your money in two-years play (famous last words).

But again, I'm a rank amateur when it comes to options. Am I missing anything?

The call spread is almost always the better option than a straight LEAP as long as you're happy to see it to near expiry. You can always lower the bottom end of the spread to reduce risk for a small reduction in return. The share price would have to run up to around $2,150 before the straight LEAP would provide a better return on investment than the spread. But then at that point you can always roll the spread up and out wider to say 1250/1700 to get about 50% extra profit on the spread. So the spread will almost always give the better return. The main advantage of the straight LEAP over the spread is its value appreciates faster so you can sell the LEAP early for a good profit if the share price shoots up.

Edit: Also in agreement with what @Dancing Lemur said above.