Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fred42]

While we are on the F result. I’m getting talks about potential collaboration being discussed between them and TSLA. Maybe Ford execs aren’t that stupid after all.

This is coming from an US supply chain source. I’d give a rating of 6 out of 10.

Ford has an arrangement for collaboration on EVs with VW. Collaboration with both VW and Tesla isn't impossible but seems unlikely.

 

[dl003]

I'm not bullish on the transition to subscription base at all. If V9 is very good, we should see a substantial tick rate for cash purchases if subscriptions does not exist. There is this thing about novelty and can wear off especially if it's a system that requires monitoring (as in it's hard to justify it long term unless this system allows you to work while driving, or sleep while driving). However with a full cash purchase, the novelty will wear off however you have paid it in full.

Just think of pretty much everything you have. You care less about it after the novelty wears off, but in this case it's a hard pill to swallow paying 200-300/month to keep it going.

If FSD was only good for novelty then it wouldn't be that big of a deal, would it?

 

[MP3Mike]

Strange. Four of the top 10 (by market cap) stocks in the S&P 500 have multiple classes of shares. There's Facebook's Class A shares in the index, both classes of Alphabet's stock, and class B of Berkshire Hathaway. Across the whole index there are 41 corporations with multiple classes of shares, only 5 of which have all classes contained in the index. Are each of these about to be kicked out of the S&P 500 for having multiple classes of stock, or is this a special rule only for Tesla?

They are all grand-fathered in because the rule didn't exist when they were added to the S&P500. As I recall the rule was made to keep SnapChat out of the S&P500. But it applies to any company added to the S&P500 after the rule was created; so it applies to Tesla.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I swear I'm not a salesman... I think that's my secret, along with straight talk.
Made my day!

View attachment 658241

That's the key.....or rather, the problem. Most people are very happy with their solar array once it's online, regardless of who installed. The only part they hated was the heavy sales process.

If people already want it....why are we(the market on average) putting $4-5k of sales effort into every install? Imagine how much happier people would be if they could skip the sales nonsense AND keep their $5k!

I've been developing a solution and am gonna reach out to bug you soon. Cheers for helping out with no return in mind. That's how the best work gets done.

 

[ZeApelido]

If anyone is up for some perverse amusement, we have @Bladerskb and @Knightshade duking it out in one of the FSD threads.

Or, as I call it, The Match Made From Hell.

Almost ready with FSD Beta V9

It sure will be more enjoyable to watch V9 beta videos (good or bad) then to follow this thread. Lighten up everyone.

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Guess Ford purchased Autoline or hired it to defend its brand:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1387881318063775745

The balance sheet debt from the captive finance arms of the traditional automakers actually is no-recourse debt.

It really is loans offered to the dealers and customers, and if the dealers and customers default on that debt, nothing happens except the cars are repossessed. This isn't debt that Ford or anyone else has to repay to anybody. Volkswagen is technically the world's most indebted company at over $200 billion of this balance sheet debt but no one is concerned about VW's financial stability for the same reasons.

 

[Singuy]

If FSD was only good for novelty then it wouldn't be that big of a deal, would it?

The genius part was to get people to pay full price for it and help Tesla train it because YOU want it better since you paid full price for it. But when you no longer have skin in the game, once the novelty wears off you'll stop subscribing.

FSD is a novelty feature until it has some real utility such as able to make you money via robotaxis or saves you time by fully freeing you from the burden of driving. Supervised FSD on city streets doesn't seem very relaxing unlike NOA on hwys.

 

[printf42]

OT:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1387893690354515970

 

[Discoducky]

OT:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1387893690354515970

View attachment 658307

It will be exciting to see the path planning that a vision only NN takes as when radar was fused into vision they would see different vectors causing path planning to appear erratic (steering wheel jitter and hesitancy). Hoping it will be smoother and more confident feeling.

 

[Criscmt]

And he said most likely Tesla is shipping more cars to Europe and Asia pacific countries where the demand is high, like South Korea and Japan, waiting for the situation to calm down a little bit in China.

Thanks for sharing this part too.
All in all, I wasn't concerned about impact of sales in China much, given the demand in places to which MIC cars can be shipped to.

That said, I was hoping, the FUD and possible nationalistic sentiment wouldn't have any impact in sales even though the order book might get affected for a short period. It appears that's not the case exactly.
Even that's ok, Tesla rose into a giant despite the tremendous FUD it faced even from early years. This one will pass, much faster at that.

 

[Criscmt]

While I’m expecting TSLA to make a move “any day now”, I can’t ever seem to call the bottom.... I can just accumulate when I’m bored with the movement. I doubt this is it yet, either. Just a little perspective, I picked up more shares at $567 just last month. With these MM + macros, you have to always keep some dry powder....

Good point, I am not against people buying now, or at any point of time, my way is DCA, not timing the buying.
That said, there might be more downward drift before moving upward, unless a significant catalyst comes up, which I don't see.
Surely some dry powder is good.

 

[Singuy]

Chinese electric automaker Nio says chip shortage will slow car deliveries

The start-up forecast second-quarter deliveries of between 21,000 and 22,000 vehicles, for growth of 5% to 10% from the first three months of the year.

www.cnbc.com

Nio halted production for 5 days in March, will not see chip shortages resolved until Q3.

 

[Criscmt]

Without the Florida crash and subsequent media attack, we would be at $800 now, I’m absolutely sure about this. The media was able to take control of the narrative, from the just released safety report which showed a 10x safety improvement with Autopilot, to blaming Autopilot for the death of two people. Basically the media (with the help of Consumer Reports) were able to completely change public opinion about Tesla Autopilot and FSD.

This is what killed the TSLA momentum and it cost us at least $100 in stock price, and a few million net worth for several of us here.

My only hope, once again, is what Cathy Wood predicted before: the longer the base, the bigger the break-out. I still believe TSLA will hit $1000 but no longer think it will be this year.

How many shares do you think Algos, retailers would've sold due to this news, causing $100 impact on the stock price?

 

[Criscmt]

In about 3 weeks, a net of +2 ETFs put TSLA on their portfolio. Interesting tidbit: IYK (iShares U.S. Consumer Goods ETF) had always been at the top of the list in term of weight in TSLA. That's no longer the case. That position now belongs to VCAR (Simplify Volt Pop Culture Disruption ETF)
It is a relatively young fund, incepted 12/28/20, focusing on Consumer Discretionary equities. It's top (only) holdings are quite perplexing.
View attachment 658133

From what you noticed, anecdotally, do you think benchmark funds would've acquired TSLA to the weightage they likely aimed for?
Perhaps during Feb, March drop?

 

[Bet TSLA]

The genius part was to get people to pay full price for it and help Tesla train it because YOU want it better since you paid full price for it. But when you no longer have skin in the game, once the novelty wears off you'll stop subscribing.

FSD is a novelty feature until it has some real utility such as able to make you money via robotaxis or saves you time by fully freeing you from the burden of driving. Supervised FSD on city streets doesn't seem very relaxing unlike NOA on hwys.

Your constant posting about things you know nothing about is truly becoming tedious.

 

[Criscmt]

If the share price shoots well above the upper strike by expiry then I will roll the strikes up to give a wider spread at zero cost for additional profit.

You must have either shares or a long call with lower strike, or cash to roll the short call against.
Do you exercise the long call (the lower strike) and then roll the higher strike to a further out expiry?

 

[Chenkers]

You must have either shares or a long call with lower strike, or cash to roll the short call against.
Do you exercise the long call (the lower strike) and then roll the higher strike to a further out expiry?

I'm referring to a vertical call spread where the long and short calls are linked together as one position. The long and short legs cover each other, so there's no requirement to have shares alongside them. For me on IB, I can open both call legs as a single vertical spread purchase. They display as a single line item in my portfolio but I can expand them to look at the price of each leg seperately. I can then buy to close the spread in a single transaction and can also roll it, choosing the strikes I want to roll each leg to. You can roll or buy to close the short upper leg to exercise the long call but I usually cash in the spread just prior to expiry.

 

[Criscmt]

I'm not bullish on the transition to subscription base at all. If V9 is very good, we should see a substantial tick rate for cash purchases if subscriptions does not exist. There is this thing about novelty and can wear off especially if it's a system that requires monitoring (as in it's hard to justify it long term unless this system allows you to work while driving, or sleep while driving). However with a full cash purchase, the novelty will wear off however you have paid it in full.

Just think of pretty much everything you have. You care less about it after the novelty wears off, but in this case it's a hard pill to swallow paying 200-300/month to keep it going.

Those who drive significantly will likely notice how less stressful it is to drive with FSD, even if it means monitoring

I'm referring to a vertical call spread where the long and short calls are linked together as one position. The long and short legs cover each other, so there's no requirement to have shares alongside them. For me on IB, I can open both call legs as a single vertical spread purchase. They display as a single line item in my portfolio but I can expand them to look at the price of each leg seperately. I can then buy to close the spread in a single transaction and can also roll it, choosing the strikes I want to roll each leg to. You can roll or buy to close the short upper leg to exercise the long call but I usually cash in the spread just prior to expiry.

I am not sure what you mean by “If the share price shoots well above the upper strike by expiry then I will roll the strikes up to give a wider spread at zero cost for additional profit.”

 

[MC3OZ]

I've linked this video before but there is something significant at 2:25 an image shared at Battery Day..
We could call a Structural Pack a - "Cell Structured Pack".
And a traditional 2170 pack a - "Frame Structured Pack".

The difference being in the "Frame Structured Pack" the cells are cargo, just along for the ride. The frame provides the structure.
The Structural Pack is, lighter, stiffer and has the weight more centred, but we know a Model Y with a "Frame Structured Pack". is viable.

Like Jordan, I know think a Structural Pack and a "Frame Structured Pack" are interchangable, at least in a Model Y with front and rear castings.

So if necessary, I think regular 2170 packs could be used for the initial Berlin Model Y ramp, and CATL LFP packs could be used in SR+ Model 3 to free up some cells.

For the 4680 ramp there may be an internal target, and an external target, There may be deliveries of Model Ys with those cells to Tesla staff 3-4 months before customer deliveries... If Tesla wanted to do that, it probably would not be overly difficult to accommodate.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

The discussion about call spreads and other option strategies shall be continued here: Advanced TSLA Options Trading