Trucks aren't phones. Every mm on a smart/cell phone is precious. There is plenty of room for buttons on a truck dash.
Truck purchases aren't rational decisions. At least not the $40k-$100k types.
Small margin fleet sales of $27k work trucks are rational decisions.
Retail truck purchases are emotional decisions. Even what anthropologist call tribal cultural decisions.
Getting a F Series owner to switch to Silverado is a bridge too far most times. That is switching bands not tribes.
Asking an F Series owner to buy a Cybertruck is like asking him to switch from the Midwestern tribe or Southern tribe to the California tribe. And then the Cybertruck design is like asking him to get a face tattoo signifying his new allegiance.
This will not happen in 10 years much less five. Yes, there will be exceptions. Largely, F Series, Silverado and Ram owners that also own EVs and HEVs that do in fact just need the utility of a truck but otherwise don't see themselves as members of those tribes. Slowly convincing the youngest members of the Southern and Midwest tribes is likely.
I read here not too long ago that the unveil of Model 3 would suck up so much demand it would bankrupt at least one legacy automaker. Maybe two. Then it became once Model 3 was in mass production it will kill at least a couple of legacy automakers. Then ,well, Model Y.
I believe Tesla will sell every Cybertruck they can make without discount. But it will largely go to non Detroit pickup owners. Japanese brand truck owners. Everyday sedan, crossover, and small SUV owners that want the utility of a pickup but weren't willing to pay the fuel weekly of an ICE pickup when they only needed the utility occasionally. Or didn't see themselves as members of the Midwestern or Southern tribes. Or "I don't listen to Country music and have sex with my sister" members of the California and New York tribes.
I know I will get a billion disagrees. Reality isn't subject to a vote on message boards.
i tend to agree with you about the “mindset”
i have a nephew that “likes to own the libs” even to the point of “coal rolling”
(his momma may have dropped him out of the bed when he was a baby 50+ years ago and landed on his head)
however,
where are they going to obtain the fuel in a few short years?
they are an ecosystem, at least to me, fuel and hardware to move the fuel to get more fuel and by the way do work in between
edit:
(as an intriguing thought, at least to me; space is vast, and once in zero gravity, it takes a tiny push to go anywhere outside of gravity wells, so, what will be a very valuable commodity, once you have a stable living environment? fuel. reaction mass to throw away, fuel to provide delta V to get you from “here to there, starting and stopping” so fuel stations will be valuable)
the easy oil has already been pumped or even geysered decades ago
those vehicles are highly fuel inefficient, have “ginormous” fuel tanks
a simple statistic on “number of fueling stations, which is dropping
“reality” of “yeah, cannot run them on air, but I could if they were electric”
this is _not_ a disagree but it’s going to be a “gotcha” for fossil fuel users ‘real soon now’, an accelerating negative feed back loop.
this graph ends ~14 years ago, but the trends continue, I think I found a few numbers indicating below 100,000, so maybe 26 years to lose 50%.....
As a related aside/correlation single data point, I have been startled at the large number of PV arrays, 10kw and above, popping up all over in my local neighborhoods, “?solar refineries?” for manufacturing fuel for vehicles and homes
