Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cherry Wine]

The trend is your friend... until it isn't your friend.

Because everyone knows the pattern.. it might not repeat itself. SP of 600 is relative weakness. More room to run up than crush back down. Now if SP was testing ATH, yes probably for sure on the way down.

Those selling calls might have their shares disappear at disappointing prices.

Yes - I'm being cautious with covered calls here.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1397419382104494088

Troy's Q2 estimate (public in a few days, I think) is revised down again, though that was likely in response to the parts shortage (and as you noted, very few - if any - Y VINs being assigned). I don't know what folks think about his estimates after last quarter's ~10% miss, though.

If you're going to share proprietary information (you shouldn't), at least share accurate information. Troy did not revise his estimate down; he said that if the issue were a problem it would cause him to revise his estimate down.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1397419382104494088

Troy's Q2 estimate (public in a few days, I think) is revised down again, though that was likely in response to the parts shortage (and as you noted, very few - if any - Y VINs were being assigned for a bit there). I don't know what folks think about his estimates after last quarter's ~10% miss, though. I appreciate his work and thoroughness and hopefully he's tightened up on the issues from Q1.

He’s wrong and laughably wrong at this point. He will be off by more than 10% this quarter...maybe even 15% if he revised downward again

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Just bought another 227 shares. I think buying in run-up to S refresh shipping date and Q2 production should be easy money.

 

[Tyler34]

He’s wrong and laughably wrong at this point. He will be off by more than 10% this quarter...maybe even 15% if he revised downward again

For those of us not in the know what are his current estimates that he could be revising down from?

 

[kbM3]

I don't see much difference in launching FSD subscriptions early or late in the Qtr. However, to minimize the financial impact, I do see a benefit of launching FSD subscriptions only when FSD has been fully achieved. Here's why:

Tesla recognizes about 60% as revenue immediately upon FSD purchase. So when a customer purchases FSD for $10k, $6k is recognized as Revenue and $4k is deferred. If that customer now buys the subscription at $200/month, Tesla would only get $200-$600 in that Quarter vs $6,000 vs the buy option.

Today, its 100% Buy and 0% Subscribe. In the future, if this changes to 25% Buy and 75% subscribe, there's a hit to revenue and cash flow.
If they launch the subscription service when FSD is feature complete, then they can recognize $10k for the 25% purchasing rather than $6k, offsetting some of the impact of subscriptions.

In the long run, subscriptions are better as the take rate will increase but there is a short term impact to revenues and cash flow.

Subscription models being better in the long run as you state is really true for stable companies with large fleets. For BMW new car sales might account for only 5% of their fleet. So a BMW subscription can theoretically tap into a 20X larger market than their new car sales. In Tesla’s ultra-high growth scenario, new car sales are always roughly 50% of the fleet, so the existing fleet presents only a 2X larger market.

So even though Tesla will hopefully be receiving a sizable percentage of subscription revenue from the current fleet of 1.2M vehicles 5 years from now, that revenue will be dwarfed by the number of new car sales Tesla will be making in 5 years.

This same problem shows up with out of warranty repair income, leasing, Supercharger and any other recurring revenue. Until Tesla’s growth slows dramatically, new car income just absolutely dominates everything else.

 

[DarkandStormy]

For those of us not in the know what are his current estimates that he could be revising down from?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1395425309525258242

His next update should be public (on Twitter) today/tomorrow I believe.

 

[Tyler34]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1395425309525258242

His next update should be public (on Twitter) today/tomorrow I believe.

Bahahaha. Good luck with that if he revises that down. Glad I dont pay for this kind of analysis.

 

[Dangerous Fish]

I just sold some AMC shares at 18% profit and sunk all the proceeds into more TSLA at $603. Quite a good day's work so far. Glad I could buy some more at this bargain price.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Thanks for the free Gordo today Ford!

 

[JusRelax]

Hmmm... guess I'm the only one that's actually disappointed with TSLA's performance today compared to the other EV stocks:

IMO, MM influence on TSLA today is strong.

 

[dl003]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1395425309525258242

His next update should be public (on Twitter) today/tomorrow I believe.

Why are you clinging on to his estimate like it's the gospel? He was off by 10% last quarter. You care bears don't improvise huh? If you're gonna be here spewing nonsense all day, please at least try to be entertaining.

 

[Zero CO2]

Just bought another 227 shares. I think buying in run-up to S refresh shipping date and Q2 production should be easy money.

i gave you ... as TSLA is never "easy" money... requires many hours on TMC ... glad to see your "I'm out" the other day was only temporary

 

[dww12]

My analitics is simple: Gordo shown = stonk up.

Plot twist, Godon is actually super long and trying to buy as many shares as he can as cheap as possible. CNBC not paying much, so DCA is slow.

 

[Krugerrand]

For those of us not in the know what are his current estimates that he could be revising down from?

83,000

 

[Krugerrand]

Hmmm... guess I'm the only one that's actually disappointed with TSLA's performance today compared to the other EV stocks:

View attachment 666488

IMO, MM influence on TSLA today is strong.

Nah. They still owe me $250+/sh before I’ll give them the time of day.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Nah. They still owe me $250+/sh before I’ll give them the time of day.

Get in line sir....

 

[hobbes]

I wonder if the "far left activists" are just unhappy German auto industry execs, haha.

There are so many companies in the world that aren't "green, ecological nor social"--picking on Tesla, of all companies, is just plain silly.

No, this seems to me like the work of Big Oil's economic hit men.

That was my first thought and my assumption without any information to the contrary.

I think for you to state that you should have information that actually supports your thesis .

The group that declared they started the fire did similar attacks previously, including on the power supply to Berlin regional trains and an institute working on a smartphone app to track possible Covid infections. At least for the latter it is kind of hard to construct a connection to Big Oil... IMHO just some very confused people.

Source (info is only in the audio stream, unfortunately can´t google translate that, so you have to trust me here...)

Polizei geht bei Kabelbrand nahe Tesla-Baustelle von Anschlag aus

Eine Stromleitung nahe dem künftigen Tesla-Werk bei Grünheide hat am Mittwoch gebrannt. Dabei wurde ein Kabel beschädigt, das die Baustelle mit Strom versorgt. Der Staatsschutz geht von einer politischen Tat aus. Im Internet kursiert ein Bekennerschreiben.

www.rbb24.de

 

[OnBass]

At the risk of being slightly OT-Not sure if this has been posted already:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/clim...xxonmobil-rebel-shareholders-win-board-seats/

 

[2daMoon]

The greater the Brownian motion in this thread, the more likely we see the mod pull out the #008000.

Considering your avatar, shouldn't that be "... pull out the #0080085"

 

[Artful Dodger]

... and there's the Mid-BB (just like clockwork b4 the 'noon whistle'). Wall St. lunch buckets.

View attachment 666458

Now I expect a slow walk dn over lunch, but let's see if some FOMO develops to help provide a little volume for support.

Cheers!

Yeah, lunchtime played out as expected: about a $6 dip was all they could mangle by 1:00 pm. Now were back above the Mid-BB at 623.49 around 2 hrs, 15 min after our 1st visit earlier today...

So now let's see where the rest of the afternoon session takes us.

Cheers!