Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[saniflash]

Still $610 as of now (Stock Option Max Pain).

I think this only refreshes once per day, overnight. AFAIK there are no intraday/realtime infos about OI available for mere mortals.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

I think this only refreshes once per day, overnight. AFAIK there are no intraday/realtime infos about OI available for mere mortals.

Good to know. Anyone out there have more current access and care to post what Max pain currently is ?

 

[CorneliusXX]

Marques also failed to correctly state the most basic fact about the vehicle. He said Lightning is "the most affordable" electric truck compared to Rivian and Cybertruck. Actually Cybertruck starts at the same price ($39.9k) while having higher starting range (250+ miles versus 230 miles).

Sloppy misinformation or deliberate disinformation? A falsehood like that is almost like saying Ford's truck is the only one with four wheels.

I think he just hasn't done his homework in the auto sector. With phones he's got a decade+ of experience testing and reviewing nearly every major smartphone since the inception of the product. For EV's he's done 3-4 reviews and only really driven his Tesla for any length of time.

 

[jerry33]

The easy Plan.
Just go ahead and make a Model Y at the GigaAustin by hand right now. Sell it to expressly challenge the law. Sell it to a sympathetic real Texan. Announce the selling of it as if it is a news article about the Gigafctory. Make the Dealerships come after them... Point out in the article that it was made in Texas for Texans. And sold in Texas.
(Have a lawyer go through whether Tesla can actually mention the laws that are in place to prevent such a transaction, and how it only hurts Texas if the law is foolishly upheld. And how the vehicle could be purchased if the vehicle was shipped out of state and then purchased and brought back in...thereby Texas missing out on the sales tax..or whatever)
Do it now.

Texas does not miss out on the sales tax. You pay it when you register your vehicle. For this kind of legislation, there is no downside as far as the Texas Legislators are concerned. Their potential downside for changing the law is reduced campaign contributions from big oil and the dealer association.

 

[Dutchie]

Why? Top end is something like a 180kWh pack right? That’s not really impressive. Anyone can sell a big battery—just throw more cells in. It’s miles/kWh and miles-per-pack-cost that matter, and looking at those metrics it’s not that impressive.

What surprises me is the price with such a huge pack. How did they get the costs of batteries down? Are they making any profit on them?

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

Marques also failed to correctly state the most basic fact about the vehicle. He said Lightning is "the most affordable" electric truck compared to Rivian and Cybertruck. Actually Cybertruck starts at the same price ($39.9k) while having higher starting range (250+ miles versus 230 miles).

Sloppy misinformation or deliberate disinformation? A falsehood like that is almost like saying Ford's truck is the only one with four wheels.

The world changes, yet stays the same. Today's influencers are yesterdays marketeers.

 

[PeterJA]

I think he just hasn't done his homework in the auto sector. With phones he's got a decade+ of experience testing and reviewing nearly every major smartphone since the inception of the product. For EV's he's done 3-4 reviews and only really driven his Tesla for any length of time.

The required "homework" for his price comparison is two clicks on Tesla.com. I guess I won't subscribe to his channel.

 

[dhrivnak]

So why would Ford give you a range that shows the truck in the poorest possible condition? Maybe their marketing department can advertise their next car to have 100 mile range and have the asterisk say "at 30% charge " in tiny fonts next time.

Would have done them wonders if they show off payload range and without payload range.

It is better in my opinion to under promise and over deliver. Just look at how many threads of people not getting their promised range.

 

[StealthP3D]

Marques also failed to correctly state the most basic fact about the vehicle. He said Lightning is "the most affordable" electric truck compared to Rivian and Cybertruck. Actually Cybertruck starts at the same price ($39.9k) while having higher starting range (250+ miles versus 230 miles).

Sloppy misinformation or deliberate disinformation? A falsehood like that is almost like saying Ford's truck is the only one with four wheels.

I agree but he would probably justify that by saying he was only comparing AWD trucks. Perhaps more relevant, I will be real surprised if the $40K Lightning materializes in numbers comparable even to the few $36K Model 3 RWD Standard Range Tesla sold. It's just a low price for the sake of getting people in the door.

In 2009 Ford was advertising the $17.9K 2010 F-150 but a check of availability showed they weren't selling any of them. I even tried to order a $32K XLT 4X4 from three different dealers on five different occasions (so I could get the exact specs I wanted) but every dealer acted like that was ridiculous because it would take 3-4 months to arrive. Even when I told them I was fine with that they wouldn't do it. I still don't understand why because it seemed to me like a guaranteed sale but direct factory orders was not something they did. It was like they couldn't comprehend someone wanting that. I couldn't believe how they didn't want the sale and still don't understand it except to chalk it up to that's not how they were programmed to operate.

Youtuber's like Marques have been corrupted by industry money and benefits. He's no longer the genuine guy that he developed his following with. And he looks a lot less happy and healthy, probably related to having traded his credibility for profit.

 

[StealthP3D]

It is better in my opinion to under promise and over deliver. Just look at how many threads of people not getting their promised range.

Yeah, the Mach-e forum is full of them. Meanwhile, the Ford enthusiasts claim that Tesla gamed the numbers while Ford numbers are conservative. And, if they say it enough times a certain number of people start to believe it. So, when a Mach-e owner has trouble getting the EPA range they can be glad in their own mind they didn't get a Tesla because they have heard it's even worse.

 

[MABMAB]

Texans have been buying vehicles from Tesla so far without any problems, Tesla will handle it just fine again.

Trying to make sense of Tesla through reading over this forum the past several months seems like I would have been very confused years ago. if you are a newer investor, absent your own foundation, don't try to understand or make sense of all this on your own. Participants rarely disclose their track records and you have no knowledge if what they say ought to pass your BS detector. Just because you do not know does not mean they do know, despite being able to use fancy words in a semi coherent matter. Measure what folks say against your own filters Even professionals get things wrong and oft

It can also occur at the end of a month. This is the case when a fund reports a snapshot of its holdings at the end of every month, or has fiscal quarters out of sync with the typical calendar. In the broader sense of the word, it is a type of rebalancing. While this has not been a good month for TSLA, it has been good since May 20, and a fund might have reasons to expect continuation upward.

Tradersfly - 2015: What is Window Dressing?

Excerpt:

It typically will happen at the end of the month, it’ll happen at the end of the quarter, and it’ll also happen at the end of the year.

I disagree. Can you find one fund that such a thing happens at the end of May?

Nasdaq says quarterly Window dressing Definition
WSJ says quarterly Mutual Funds Decorate the Portfolio

And, the reporting made public with firms such as Nasdaq, which therein become public, well those are quarterly Tesla, Inc. Common Stock (TSLA) Institutional Holdings

I have never seen a monthly reporting of any company...

The only reason any of this gets to be public knowledge is funds are required to disclose via form 13-F QUARTERLY.

SEC Form 13F: What It Is, Filing Requirements, and Key Issues

SEC Form 13F is a quarterly report filed by investment managers to the Securities and Exchange Commission that discloses their U.S. equity holdings.

www.investopedia.com

There are no monthly reporting requirements hence there is no monthly window dressing.


Readers around here really have to be careful of what goes for knowledge.

 

[ChefBoyardee]

Words of wisdom for this friday:

View attachment 667257

A father said to his daughter “You have graduated with honors, here is a car I bought many years ago. It is pretty old now. But before I give it to you, take it to the used car lot downtown and tell them I want to sell it and see how much they offer you for it.”

The daughter went to the used car lot, returned to her father and said, “They offered me $1,000 because the said it looks pretty worn out.”

The father said, now “Take it to the pawn shop.” The daughter went to the pawn shop, returned to her father and said,”The pawn shop offered only $100 because it is an old car.”

The father asked his daughter to go to a car club now and show them the car. The daughter then took the car to the club, returned and told her father,” Some people in the club offered $100,000 for it because “it's an iconic car and sought by many collectors.”

Now the father said this to his daughter, “The right place values you the right way,” If you are not valued, do not be angry, it means you are in the wrong place. Those who know your value are those who appreciate you. Never stay in a place where no one sees your value.

Lesson: NEVER SELL YOUR TESLA SHARES UNTIL THEY ARE $100K....

Unrelated (kindof), but that story just made me feel great about a job change I just made. Thanks for posting

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Bad news burger of the day....

Ford stock is outperforming Tesla this year, and technicals suggest the trend could continue | Businesblog

 

[MXWing]

I think this only refreshes once per day, overnight. AFAIK there are no intraday/realtime infos about OI available for mere mortals.

Pinging @Artful Dodger as well.

Is there a pay site that does real time max pain? It's really good for days like today where we are well off the premarket calculation.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

What surprises me is the price with such a huge pack. How did they get the costs of batteries down? Are they making any profit on them?

probably not making a profit, but as long as the loss is less than or equal to the cost of buying an emissions credit, it doesn't matter

 

[Knightshade]

Texans have been buying vehicles from Tesla so far without any problems, Tesla will handle it just fine again.

They've been buying cars that start in another state.

Then after the sale, Tesla ships it to Texas.

Tesla still has some extra overhead/admin cost doing it this way, but it's pretty minor, they still only "ship" the car once, and it sits where cars normally sit before shipping anyway.


For Austin made cars they'd need to ship the car TWICE- first outside of Texas prior to selling it to a Texan-(and hold it someplace out of state for the VIN assignment and actual sale to happen) then shipped back in after the sale.

Obviously there's some additional cost there. Not a huge one, but it's non zero.

But what makes it a 'vehicle', maybe they sell it without tires-- by sell i mean the car stays in tx, the paperwork or electronic facsimile or blockchain ledger registers the transaction from out of state, and then the buyer picks up texas the pieces of the car, pays a service charge to have the wheels installed, and wala, it is now a vehicle...

The part with the VIN assigned to it and to which the valid title refers is a car.

That thing can't physically be in Texas when you sell it to someone in Texas.

Regardless of if there's wheels attached at the time or not.

If there was some simple DUH! loophole to the law Tesla wouldn't have spent millions of dollars lobbying to try and change the actual law.

Marques also failed to correctly state the most basic fact about the vehicle. He said Lightning is "the most affordable" electric truck compared to Rivian and Cybertruck. Actually Cybertruck starts at the same price ($39.9k) while having higher starting range (250+ miles versus 230 miles).

Sloppy misinformation or deliberate disinformation? A falsehood like that is almost like saying Ford's truck is the only one with four wheels.

The Ford still gets a $7500 federal rebate. The CT does not. (The Rivian does but it's priced much higher than either to start)

So his statement on affordability is entirely accurate info right now. (plus as SP3D points out- if he's comparing AWD to AWD the Ford is cheaper even without the rebate right now)


There's obviously going to be many other ways the Ford product is inferior (especially on the commercial base model at 39k), but net price to the buyer it's ahead right now.

That may or may not remain true depending what happens with the infrastructure bill, and if CT pricing changes any between now and the configurator opening- but it's true right now.

What surprises me is the price with such a huge pack. How did they get the costs of batteries down? Are they making any profit on them?

Speculation that they're getting some significant cost savings recycling a lot of ICE F-150 parts-bin stuff they get cheap from mass quantities.

We may have to wait for the Munro teardown for more info though.

(and obviously I expect any profit margin, if there is one, to be vastly smaller than Teslas)

 

[printf42]

Can we stop the Texas delivery discussion or move it somewhere else?

 

[Chunky Jr.]

No sugar, Sherlock...

Elon Musk is 'a competitive advantage' for Tesla: analyst

Elon Musk is 'a competitive advantage' for Tesla: analyst

The bulls on Tesla's stock still love CEO Elon Musk, despite propensity for controversial tweets.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[Todd Burch]

What surprises me is the price with such a huge pack. How did they get the costs of batteries down? Are they making any profit on them?

Someone corrected me and it's closer to a 150-155kWh pack in a $90k+ vehicle. And no, I highly doubt Ford will be making much money if any on these initially. We also don't know how well the pack will be cared for (thermal management, etc.) as NONE of that important information was covered in the Lightning presentation.

But this illustrates an extremely important point:

Tesla or any exclusive EV company needs to show not just profit, but enough profit to run their entire business (chargers, service facilities, showrooms, etc) off that EV profit. Legacy OEMs don't need to do this because they can rely on profits from their ICE vehicles. So having a lower price doesn't mean they've brought costs down, it just means they can hide their losses among their other profits.

I mean, with all of the insourcing that Tesla does, from battery cell all the way to pack, and their 10 year lead on iterating, does *anyone* believe Ford's $/kWh cost is less than the cost for Tesla? Not me. And that difference is about to get MUCH bigger as their 4680 puzzle pieces are put into place.

This means that ICE is a crutch for legacy OEMs, and as long as they rely on that crutch to some extent it will slow down the progress they need to make to become reliably profitable in the future when they can no longer make ICE vehicles.

 

[Beltsbear]

So Tesla is part of the meme stock run up or what? Our chart looks like AMC today and not the QQQ.

Not sure, but I sold my AMC (bought at 16, sold at 32) and bought TSLA with it. I have exited all of my 'meme stock' positions now.