Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[22522]

There is talk about PR around FUD as an answer for stock price support.

As a counterpoint I was able to index stacks of St. Augustine sod into and out of a Model 3 on a plastic tarp. It is a better car.

 

[jerry33]

are 18650s suitable for powerwalls or other stationary uses?

It's not the format, it's the chemistry.

 

[asburgers]

There is talk about PR around FUD as an answer for stock price support.

As a counterpoint I was able to index stacks of St. Augustine sod into and out of a Model 3 on a plastic tarp. It is a better car.
View attachment 671363View attachment 671364View attachment 671365

Nice hoe.

 

[st_lopes]

But then - why open up orders for a Plaid AND a Plaid+ ? - what was Plaid+ supposed to be, if not 4680?

I believe 4680 is just a form factor that brings down cost due to speed and improved manufacturability. The chemistry that goes in to 4680 could go in to any other form factor. It actually doesn't make sense for 4680s to first be going in to Tesla's highest margin vehicles, but makes A LOT of sense for them to go in to vehicles that may be more margin constrained or those where dropping prices would drastically improve total addressable market (MY).

Again, 4680 form factor was just one of MANY battery day announcements and we are spending way too much time equating 4680 to Plaid or Plaid+

 

[Tim S]

Still trying to figure out why people on this forum on one hand claims manipulation to get people's call to expire worthless and on the other hand keeps buying calls.

Guess more people have success with leaps?

We have fond memories (and lots of $) from last year... looking for something similar after the SP has been artificially held down for months this year. One run-up like any of these will make up for all of our calls that have expired worthless recently.

Jun 26 $191 ---> Jul 10 $308 (+61% in 2 weeks)
Aug 11 $274 ---> Aug 31 $498 (+82% in 3 weeks)
Nov 16 $408 ---> Jan 8 $880 (+115% in 8 weeks)

(split-adjusted closing prices)

 

[elasalle]

Elon isn't exactly l own for truth telling.

Kato and 4680 cells were happening a long time before Battery day.

If we look at Tesla progress, Model X ramp, Model 3 ramp -- we see lots of delays and frustrations in the beginning, and once issues resolves we see a very quick progress.
The FUD takes advantage of the delays, and the Markets get's caught off guard with the latter.

(ever optimist and would make a bad Short - but I think we see 4680 tomorrow )

 

[JustSaying]

I would dearly love to see some evidence of the 4680s being in production in anything, followed (quickly I hope) by evidence of the 4680s being scaled up in production - such as being used for Model Y production.

Agreed, I have no idea or opinion what the battery will be. One thing I do know it will be the best that is currently practically available.
As I remember everyone (me actually) was blown away when 2170's showed up the Model 3, But I am old and forget stuff.

 

[FireMedic]

Kato and 4680 cells were happening a long time before Battery day.

If we look at Tesla progress, Model X ramp, Model 3 ramp -- we see lots of delays and frustrations in the beginning, and once issues resolves we see a very quick progress.
The FUD takes advantage of the delays, and the Markets get's caught off guard with the latter.

(ever optimist and would make a bad Short - but I think we see 4680 tomorrow )

I think you guys are responding to a FUDbot. Misspellings in his banner and his post. New account started today. Just sayin. Bots on block

 

[dgodfrey]

If Plaid uses a structural battery pack comprised of 18650 or 2170 cells, that would require validation. As would a non-structural pack that deviates from the old 14 module configuration. New pack -> new validation.

Unless the 1865's and 2170's are tabless, I don't see how they could be structural. All their thermal management has so far been from the casing rather than the cap(s). Those wavy ribbons between cells used for coolant to draw/add ▲T, don't appear to be structural. When the late Jack Rickard and Sandy Munro tore into one, those ribbons seemed rather soft relative to steel. Did I miss something?

 

[InTheShadows]

Thanks for reposting that. I had assumed that Elon's comments were referring to new chemistries or other modifications besides 4680s. Since Tesla is supply constrained, we know they won't underutilize any cell format including 18650s. Though if all 18650 supply could be diverted to LR S/X then it becomes more plausible. There are interesting breadcrumbs to be sure...

What format is used in the PowerWall? There is a shortage of those too.

 

[uujjj2]

I see RIDE up on the news that they have run out of money. Not sure how this stock thing works as it looks to me the worse you do the better the stock price. I will just stick with Tesla and wait for some sanity.

a) RIDE hasn't run out of money. What they said is they need to raise money or they may run out while ramping the pickup.
b) The news moving the stock price is there are reports they are close to closing on new funding.

The market's behavior looks a lot more rational if you judge it based on actual news instead of just misinterpreting a headline you skimmed.

 

[mongo]

Unless the 1865's and 2170's are tabless, I don't see how they could be structural. All their thermal management has so far been from the casing rather than the cap(s). Those wavy ribbons between cells used for coolant to draw/add ▲T, don't appear to be structural. When the late Jack Rickard and Sandy Munro tore into one, those ribbons seemed rather soft relative to steel. Did I miss something?

Yeah, classic tabbed cells would likely fall under the non-structural design like a 3/Y four module setup unless they can pull enough heat from the bottom to eliminate the ribbon cooling.

Seems like changing older cells to tabbed would be a great intermediate step. Better cooling and lower resistance with potentially more active area. Not sure how easy the manufacturing changes would be on an existing line. Increas in electrode width, remove tab attachment steps, add shingle slicing & folding, add new cap attachment.

 

[ZeApelido]

Plus, she's far too knowledgeable about far too many esoteric topics to even be in the same circles as someone on Wall Street tasked with misinformation, let alone work for them! Wall Street does hire experts in their fields, but not ones like Karen.

I don't know what you mean, many Wall Streeters are building their own greenhouses in the Icelandic hinterland.

 

[JustMe]

It seems like we’ve had an influx of Care Bears and FUD-bots again this week heading into the Plaid reveal.

I sense a touch of fear from the other side.

It gives me the warm and fuzzies

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Has anyone here tracked SP movements in the days leading up to and the days immediately after Tesla product unveilings and delivery events ?

Would be interesting data.

 

[kengchang]

Has anyone here tracked SP movements in the days leading up to and the days immediately after Tesla product unveilings and delivery events ?

Would be interesting data.

I faintly remember battery day....

 

[MXWing]

Has anyone here tracked SP movements in the days leading up to and the days immediately after Tesla product unveilings and delivery events ?

Would be interesting data.

Always sell the news… Sharp sell offs even.
But it would be silly to sell or short something 33% off it’s ATH with monster p/d and quarters on the horizon.

I faintly remember battery day....

Sell sell sell

 

[lascavarian]

I have been thinking about the “EV” tax. Might have to match that up with a catalytic converter rebate for vehicles that can meet clean air standards without a catalytic converter or emissions testing.

 

[Tslynk67]

uhh...is there a way to know if we ourselves have been researched based on being on this forum?!

Well, "research" is a strong word, I meant stalking...

But seriously folks, ahem, no, when Karen was here she talked about a few things she'd been involved with and had ongoing, so I just Googled the stuff, and she's the real deal, as Stealth said, deeply knowledgeable on an eclectic range of topics, she cares deeply for a number of issues (climate obviously being one of them), and has a fiercely individual character

But OK, you can find articles written by myself out there too, some written about me, my Tweets have been used on major news websites, posts here have been regurgitated, etc. Same probably applies for others here

I guess one big difference is that we know Karen's real name, in my case, and most present, our names are not know - and probably best to keep it that way

 

[GOVA]

Has anyone here tracked SP movements in the days leading up to and the days immediately after Tesla product unveilings and delivery events ?

Would be interesting data.

Usually, the stonk goes down by a bit. For instance, check right after the CyberTruck reveal.