Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Right_Said_Fred]

I just watched a summary of the Plaid presentation (the alternative to getting up at 5.30 AM to watch it live) and it looked great. After reading last night's comments I was expecting a disaster. I'm sure that watching it live was worse than the condensed version, but some people's expectations sure were high. And why did there have to be 'something else'? To take away all the limelight from Plaid? Doesn't make any sense.

I hope next time we won't have another expectation frenzy. Yes, Tesla moves fast on many fronts, faster than many expect. Look at the machinery already up and running in the half finished Gigafactories Berlin and Austin. Look at Gigafactory Shanghai scaling up extremely fast. Look at the smooth introduction of rear and front castings.

But the next two years are still going to be hard. Building Cybertruck from stainless steel is hard, scaling 4680 is hard, completing FSD is hard. If new technologies were simple, everyone would be doing it. Tesla has warned us about this ('12 to 18 months for scaling 4680'). Elon has warned us about this ('the extreme difficulty of scaling production of new technology is not well understood'). So we should not be surprised if there are more delays. Don't expect many Cybertrucks this year or in the first half of next year, don't expect cars like 3 and S/X to be equipped with 4680 for quite a while.

But once Tesla masters a technology, it can roll it out on a massive scale. That's the way Elon's companies work. Look at how fast SpaceX is now building Starlink satellites. Or Tesla opening Superchargers (several stations each day). This is what will happen with Cybertruck and 4680 from 2023 onwards. Investors with patience will be richly rewarded.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

I would personally like to see Tesla move this drivetrain into a plaid version of the 3 but it seems like I'll have to wait for the Roadster to get this performance in a car smaller than the S.

 

[ZsoZso]

He was rated number one back in 2013. Then you go on to say he'd still be rated well if it wasn't for tesla. That last part. That's picking cherries .

My first post on this topic was in direct response to this post:

Curious does anyone let alone CNBC ever mention other price targets from GLJ Research? Does GLJ Research even have price targets for other tickers?

So my response was exactly adressing this question of how he performs for other price targets.
I am sorry that you do not like the factual answer to that question, but your preferences do not have much sway with reality / facts.

 

[scaesare]

Here is my lunchbox from when I was a kid back in the 60's. I liked Plaid even back then (or maybe my Mom did).

View attachment 672234

Clearly they've just cobbled that car together with tape:

 

[Nocturnal]

Batteries are the limiting factor, charging stations are not. Expanding the charging network helps further the mission more quickly by enabling Tesla to maximize the number of cars it can produce with a limited amount of batteries. At some point charging stations will become as abundant as gas stations, if not more. If one takes that view, aren't bigger batteries just a band aid?

It depends. In my model 3? Yeah, I need more battery. Highway range in super cold weather drops by 40% in total. Even if I had an SC every 60 miles that's not a fun experience having to stop that often. Now, 400 or so miles AND the new heat pumps with even faster charging? That should work fine.

 

[oldTAVguy]

How do you double the value of an ICE car in 2030? — Fill it with gas.

 

[scaesare]

I think it's probably not a memory limitation, per say, but the number of resources required to add multi-waypoint routing are significant. The issue is not storing the waypoint but calculating longer, more complex routes. The adding of waypoints and more complex route possibilities, increases the computation complexity more than might meet the eye. It's a pretty steep curve and the required programming is not trivial if they want to maintain the same level of effectiveness. Maybe you thought "adding waypoints" just meant the ability to save waypoints, it already does that automatically.

No... otherwise why can my 15 yr old Toyota do it without breaking a sweat?

You know.. the one that still loads it's maps from a DVD?

 

[Blue horseshoe]

My first post on this topic was in direct response to this post:



So my response was exactly adressing this question of how he performs for other price targets.
I am sorry that you do not like the factual answer to that question, but your preferences do not have much sway with reality / facts.

Time to squelch more noise..

 

[Andy O]

The adding of waypoints and more complex route possibilities, increases the computation complexity more than might meet the eye.

Even if there were 5 options per leg and it computed all permutations of intermediate routes to calculate charging that is only 625 combinations for a 4 stop trip or 3,125 for 5 stops.

Adding waypoints reduces the complexity of the calculations. For a long route there are many many possible combinations. Adding waypoints make the problem into a sequence of short route computations, each easier to compute.

For example, how many routes are there from Fresno to NYC? Could you look at all of them to find the best one? No. But if you specify that you must go through 10 intermediate cities, you could probably figure out the best route for each leg then link them.

 

[MP3Mike]

Adding waypoints reduces the complexity of the calculations. For a long route there are many many possible combinations. Adding waypoints make the problem into a sequence of short route computations, each easier to compute.

For example, how many routes are there from Fresno to NYC? Could you look at all of them to find the best one? No. But if you specify that you must go through 10 intermediate cities, you could probably figure out the best route for each leg then link them.

It isn't quite that simple. You can't treat them independently because your next segment may impact where you have to charge, and for how long, on the prior segment.

And the Tesla navigation already has waypoints, they are just automatically selected for you: Supercharger stops. The request is to add a second level of waypoints.

 

[Nocturnal]

Well, as beaten down as we have been lately, closing at around $610 this week feels like a victory.

 

[JustSaying]

I am cruel and unusual and the punishment must fit the crime. Lastly, you must be made an example.

In conclusion, no. And if you try and wiggle out again, your probation will be extended.

I stand admonished...

 

[Singuy]

Well, as beaten down as we have been lately, closing at around $610 this week feels like a victor

Well you certainly counted the chickens before they hatched.

 

[Curt Renz]

It's the final hour of a weekly options expiration. During the past half hour the Nasdaq 100 has been dumping and dragging TSLA along with it. Nevertheless, a cursory survey of TSLA options makes $610 appear to be the most profitable target for large option writers with the ability to manipulate the share price.

 

[StealthP3D]

I don't recall them moving the front firewall forward, just minimizing the protrusion of the dash assembly in to the cabin. So I believe the total contained frontal volume forward of the firewall is roughly the same.

I expect the smaller frunk areas may be more due to the front drive units, larger radiators (discussed as being capable of 2X heat rejection), etc...

I believe they must have moved at least portions of firewall forward. Otherwise front leg room would be reduced.

 

[GOVA]

UI clip - interesting ability to rearrange items on the screen.

 

[Nocturnal]

Well you certainly counted the chickens before they hatched.

I'm watching them hatch.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Ho hum day....now the only burning question is if the MM's try to get it to max pain @ $602?

 

[geometro]

UI clip - interesting ability to rearrange items on the screen.

Cool... so can the kids watch something separate while the car is in motion? (last few seconds of that clip seem to indicate 'yes').

 

[StealthP3D]

I would be more patient if there were Supercharges planned but findus shows no SCs planned in the areas I travel most frequently, so any improvement is years away at best. Basically if you are traveling North<->South in the plains states, there are many gaps. East<->West is not so bad.

I don't know why Tesla would prioritize Superchargers in states like Texas that make it illegal to buy a Tesla! It only makes good sense to prioritize those states that actually WANT Tesla to sell their cars there. I mean, Texas is a huge state too, they are probably just putting the bare minimum in until Texas shows it's serious about letting Tesla compete on on even footing with ICE vehicles.