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View attachment 673314
Option IV (implied volatility) is 56%
IV percentile is 0%
Put/call ratio is .50

Premiums on options are at all time lows as indicated by the IV percentile of 0% meaning IV has been higher 100% in the last twelve months. Calls are being purchased at a rate of 2:1 compared to puts.

I suspect people are placing bullish bets with call options now at a time where option premiums are at a relative discount

It looks like we are in a different phase of TSLA option prices and IV. Surprised it is low for a while in 55 -70% range ..

causes?
S&P addition might have had a soothing affect on expected volatility
lower short interest
increase in interest rates affecting Black Scholes
 
The case of Osborning is a real issue Tesla has been and has to consider as they improve tech so quickly. The Model Y rollout proves as much. (Remember how they sandbagged it's development, where it was gonna be made, lame release presentation).

The 4680 tech has to be handled carefully. It's not just about too many people waiting for Plaid+ over Plaid, but about people then waiting for a 4680 Model Y vs a 2170. That would not be good. If Tesla announces 4680's are almost here, Model Y orders might slow down.

Meanwhile, lack of mention of 4680 tech means FUD about their progress. I think we'll have to deal with the FUD until the 4680 tech is actually being put into Model Y's.
Easiest way to phase in 4680 is to create Model Y Long Range+ and charge a premium for the range.
 
The case of Osborning is a real issue Tesla has been and has to consider as they improve tech so quickly. The Model Y rollout proves as much. (Remember how they sandbagged it's development, where it was gonna be made, lame release presentation).

The 4680 tech has to be handled carefully. It's not just about too many people waiting for Plaid+ over Plaid, but about people then waiting for a 4680 Model Y vs a 2170. That would not be good. If Tesla announces 4680's are almost here, Model Y orders might slow down.

Meanwhile, lack of mention of 4680 tech means FUD about their progress. I think we'll have to deal with the FUD until the 4680 tech is actually being put into Model Y's.
I kind of understand your point, but I feel this was perhaps more relevant in the early days of the S where something like a big increase in range, second motor or some other substantial improvement would make for a totally different car. I would argue the current product is already significantly more compelling than most other EV and any ICE, so it seems a bit iterative to hold out for the latest and greatest. Just enjoy what you can get today and know that whenever you tire of it, something better will be available.

There's still a lot of market to penetrate, and the timeline for people looking at a new car depends on more than when something new is on the horizon. It could be that their current car is impractical to continue maintaining, perhaps they received a raise or promotion, or a lease ended. I'm not that worried, especially considering most still don't know what a Tesla even is.
 
The many delivery time threads on this very forum indicate that it is not time yet. :) All that advertisements will do is increase the wait time from 6-12 weeks to 6-12 months!

Google search engine never advertised. Advertisements have negligible or no impact on the adoption of Facebook, Twitter and Windows. Tech monopolies usually don't need advertisements. By the time Tesla is no longer demand constrained, it will be a tech monopoly.

You could make an argument that with more awareness through advertising, the entire company would benefit, would be able to expand faster through additional stock raises, and new customers would demand a slightly higher level of communication/PR.

You could also make the argument that Tesla is expanding as fast as it can and doesn't need the extra attention, I get that.
I think advertisement, education and exposure would only help at this point.
I guess we were due to rehash advertising as it's probably been weeks.
There seems to be two positions on this debate.
  1. Advertising for demand
  2. Advertising for awareness
Obviously, demand isn't a problem for the "yute's" in the lineup currently. For the same reason you don't stop at the Chinese buffet on the way home from dinner, we don't need to upsell those two yet. If the Model S and X sales are deemed soft, then advertising in some form might be the chosen catalyst. However, I doubt it would resemble anything like the traditional ads we now see for competing manufacturers. Rather than assaulting the public with obvious hype and fantasies, I would imagine the "awareness", I had no idea, type of subtle fact, more Tesla's style.

But Tesla is in a unique position that is the envy of their peers. And that is the branding powerhouse. In 15 years, Tesla has become a common lexicon that even people that don't really know or understand Tesla use.
Back in the day, Cadillac had that panache and was used to refer to top level, ultimate, best in class. Even by people that never owned, drove or understood what a Cadillac was. You would hear it referenced on everything from health insurance policies to pizza.

I've seen two references this weekend where Tesla was used to refer to the top of the line for a product. One was a lawn mower and the other was a bicycle. I think we could be on the cusp of Tesla reaching critical mass of public awareness that will outgun the FUD. This could result in Tesla never needing to accelerate awareness.

It's been said that the youth of today are much more suspicious of slick marketing, advertising, reporting, anything where a message is intended to sway their opinion. Look at the push back on religion as an example of how future generations no longer believe everything their elders tell them. After they've experienced enough of these fake stories, they become callous to outrageous claims and question everything. As the exposure to the product starts to snowball, it will be a rare hermit that's ignorant to the advantages Tesla brings to market. Each new release finds new fans whether it's the kid with the McLaren poster that will now swap it for the Plaid S or the business owner looking for the best truck value in the market.

This truth seeking is probably why you see some of the most stubborn and delusional fudsters are older than 40. Sure there are red state youths that still can't think for themselves and are victims of the tribalism that begets coal rolling but the trend seems to be that the more educated, the more likely to seek the truth. Every day Tesla grows their brand, or image, is that much closer to not needing to hype the product. The product hypes the product. The more Tesla's Tesla sells, the more Tesla's Tesla sells.
 
The case of Osborning is a real issue Tesla has been and has to consider as they improve tech so quickly. The Model Y rollout proves as much. (Remember how they sandbagged it's development, where it was gonna be made, lame release presentation).

The 4680 tech has to be handled carefully. It's not just about too many people waiting for Plaid+ over Plaid, but about people then waiting for a 4680 Model Y vs a 2170. That would not be good. If Tesla announces 4680's are almost here, Model Y orders might slow down.

Meanwhile, lack of mention of 4680 tech means FUD about their progress. I think we'll have to deal with the FUD until the 4680 tech is actually being put into Model Y's.
I wish they would expand upon the very short Kato Road music video that was released, perhaps a press tour of the facility or old-style Elon walkthrough like he used to do in the SpaceX factory. With the intense scrutiny of everything Musk does or says, he could immediately focus attention on it and generate a bevy of pundits asking the question "What is legacy auto doing about this?" As for revealing trade secrets, patents are in place, just enforce them.
 
TL;DR - The Tesla product and manufacturing innovation/efficiency lead continues to grow. My thoughts on why Tesla continues to extend its lead with every new 'competition' product launch.

All other things are a short term distraction for investors.

I've written this for the TMC investor thread community; not for public consumption as there is too much context for n00bs. Yeah, I'm a bull, but I feel I'm a very informed, tech engineer, turned product manager, first principles bull.

The best, most reliable, my 'go-to' sources for information on Tesla continue to be (I'm not associated with them, they are my heroes however):
  • Dave Lee @ Dave Lee on Investing - amazing insights abound
  • Rob @ Tesla Daily - all things financial
  • Jordan @ The Limiting Factor - all things battery
  • Sandy @ Munro Associates - *nearly* all things vehicle production (software, ECU, custom chips need some work, luv ya Sandy!)
  • Zac and Jesse @ Now you Know - super informative, super funny

Much longer version below...


While most or maybe even all of us know that some EV competition is 'coming' (Rivian, Lucid, NIO...etc), we also know, most at at an arms length, that it is really hard to bring to mass production, taking years to ramp, needing the best engineers, visionary leadership and the capital to keep the gears turning. Any one of these things not fully onboard and or operating efficiently will most likely spell doom at worst or at best cause such a lag as to not be competitive when the product is announced to launched.

We also know, from even the most recent product launches of competition that there are marketing, pent up demand or 'fanboy' purchasing for a quarter or even longer if their are government incentives, then come the dealer incentives and once those run out, the product seemingly goes into life support.

You don't need to look any farther than Tesla's software lead, but when you do you see so much more. Many more insurmountable moats that continue to grow. Underneath software is firmware, then custom ECU's, then custom ASIC's or state of the art chips like the new graphics in the S (not industry standard). These power the entire car and enable to the engineering playground to quickly iterate and enable the most advanced features of any product (not exclusive to autos). Even with my time at Tesla and working on BIOS at Dell and XBOX, I'm absolutely floored that Cyberpunk 2077 at 60fps is playable and appears smooth on the S. It is such an amazing achievement and speaks volumes to their engineering prowess and vision. This is also the tip of the tech iceberg as Sandy continues to discover in his teardowns that Tesla has such a huge lead on HVAC innovations (Octovalve), IDRA gigpress chassis, structural batteries, BMS, motors, inverters, gearboxes...etc (the list is so long). For instance, how many OEM's make their own body controls ECU's? or even know how to swap out a bootloader in the field? (I'd guess none as none have ever demonstrated it or even talked about implementing features which would demonstrate it).

I've been an investor for over 10 years now, been through several valleys, seen some ATH mountaintops and never once thought that competition is at Tesla's doorstep. When the S launched in 2012 I thought OEM's would, out of sheer fear, start reverse engineering and then start production of their own EV optimized chassis and all the other necessary engineering to 'catch up'. This effectively didn't happen and was evident when Porsche released the Taycan. A great effort, but sorely lacking in so many areas that it is a testimonial to how a formerly leading OEM has been put to task and failed to deliver product/marketplace competition. Their product is beautiful, track worthy and that's where it ends as it is also less efficient, much more expensive and has serious issues at the software and firmware side (this is at a glance; so their might be more. I'll wait for the Sandy teardown if one such should happen).

My bias shows as I believe that all other competitors either in production or announced with specifications available are simply a feeble attempt at marketing hype. This includes the Lightning which I wish and hope will be better when launched, but I just don't see how a car with a huge mechanical button on it's beautiful, large LCD screen will have good, industry leading tech underneath it. Huge sigh. Rivian is so darn close, I hope they can find a niche, but that is all they will get is a tiny fraction and it looks like a great product, but lacks many specifications that are key. I'm very cautious to say it will compete.

Let's never forget that traditional OEM's have huge 'boat anchors' holding them back from even keeping up with Tesla's pace of innovation
  • Tesla has no appreciable/material marketing, in any country, while selling every car it makes (low # of days of inventory).
  • Tesla will effectively double it's manufacturing footprint next year
  • Tesla innovates at every level of form, fit and function as well as the creation and production of these innovations
  • Tesla attracts the best talent
  • Tesla has no ties to dealerships
  • Tesla has no ties to gas
  • Tesla soon, maybe currently, will take to production, it's own batteries from scratch (4680 Kato outputs)
  • Tesla has long term contracts for raw battery materials
To conclude, there have been 2 major events in the timeline of Tesla that have gone so underappreciated, or better to say, way over the heads of investors, that it is astounding.

  • Tesla Autonomy day with custom inference and training chips
  • Tesla Battery day with structural batteries and so much more that it makes my head spin
and on the horizon will be Tesla AI day. Which I'd bet will also be very hard to understand for the investor community. How many know about GPT3? How many know about BERT? Inception v3? We have yet to see any fruits of the Dojo labor and hopefully are on the cusp of experiencing FSD beta with 3D labeled training data.

It speaks volumes that not only does Tesla make the most performance minded, fastest accelerating cars on the market, but they are also the safest ever made, most tech advanced, consistently getting industry revolutionizing software updates OTA and are the cheapest to maintain/operate making them a seemingly brain-dead value decision when considering 5 year TCO. This has never happened in modern times or ever. Any why would it? No car company has ever had a vision like Tesla.

Would you rather have a Model 3 or Honda Civic or name any other car? Oh and the Civic (other car) is more money over 5 years (TCO). Hmm, lets see. Objectively, Tesla is materially better in all the ways that matter to consumers and they can only find out if they 'search it up' on the intertubes or ask around. This will reign true for years to come. Thanks for reading!
 
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Yeah, my logic can get me in trouble some times. I would love to take this explanation at face value but nothing adds up. Even the idea of a liquidity trial if it were the case falls apart because the test was only half completed. There was a sale but then never a repurchase. This fits the description of a sale for many people rather than an experiment. But happily, I think we are done with this discussion.

This is going to be a very good week here at speculation manor;) We may see some uptick in buying.
Elon point blank said Bitcoin showed the liquidity they were looking for; in that they sold 10% and the price never moved.
 
I kind of understand your point, but I feel this was perhaps more relevant in the early days of the S where something like a big increase in range, second motor or some other substantial improvement would make for a totally different car. I would argue the current product is already significantly more compelling than most other EV and any ICE, so it seems a bit iterative to hold out for the latest and greatest. Just enjoy what you can get today and know that whenever you tire of it, something better will be available.

There's still a lot of market to penetrate, and the timeline for people looking at a new car depends on more than when something new is on the horizon. It could be that their current car is impractical to continue maintaining, perhaps they received a raise or promotion, or a lease ended. I'm not that worried, especially considering most still don't know what a Tesla even is.
Absolutely agree. We are so close to every detail on this forum, which is fantastic, but not normal.
My company have decided to switch from Audi A4 diesels to Tesla model 3s. About 40 of them. I know for certain that nobody involved with this decision has any idea what batteries they contain.
Some potential buyers will delay purchase to wait for new tech. But the number is too small to drop demand below capacity.
 
This effectively didn't happen and was evident when Porsche released the Taycan. A great effort, but sorely lacking in so many areas that it is a testimonial to how a formerly leading OEM has been put to task and failed to deliver product/marketplace competition. Their product is beautiful, track worthy and that's where it ends as it is also less efficient, much more expensive and has serious issues at the software and firmware side (this is at a glance; so their might be more. I'll wait for the Sandy teardown if one such should happen).
Good post. Re the Taycan I don't have personal experience but I don't think it's even trackable based on my track days with the P3. It can perform, but that range is too low for a reasonable track day. 300 miles of range minimum unless you have high speed charging right at the track.
 
Respectfully disagree - Tesla has said and Elon confirmed - 4680's will be for Austin and Berlin production of the Model Y to start with.
Kato road is making these now and stockpiling for the next 2 Giga's which should be needing them sometime this year.
No lack of communication - Zack (I believe) mentioned they were achieving great results with the ramp at Kato on the Q1 CC

I believe that could easily be the case. But they are not going to be outwardly boasting about 4680 status because it could affect consumer demand right now.
 
I kind of understand your point, but I feel this was perhaps more relevant in the early days of the S where something like a big increase in range, second motor or some other substantial improvement would make for a totally different car. I would argue the current product is already significantly more compelling than most other EV and any ICE, so it seems a bit iterative to hold out for the latest and greatest. Just enjoy what you can get today and know that whenever you tire of it, something better will be available.

There's still a lot of market to penetrate, and the timeline for people looking at a new car depends on more than when something new is on the horizon. It could be that their current car is impractical to continue maintaining, perhaps they received a raise or promotion, or a lease ended. I'm not that worried, especially considering most still don't know what a Tesla even is.

Except this was definitely the case with the Model Y rollout. Remember when they allegedly didn't know if they would produce it in Reno or Fremont less than one year from production start? Or the Model Y reveal event, when it was barely showcased. Like this image: (ps, the model Y is the blue one on the right you can barely see).

maxresdefault.jpg


Tesla has great demand and margins but nothing is unlimited. They still have to be careful. It is interesting to watch how they deal with the eventual rollout out of 4680's to most of their lineup.
 
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Good post. Re the Taycan I don't have personal experience but I don't think it's even trackable based on my track days with the P3. It can perform, but that range is too low for a reasonable track day. 300 miles of range minimum unless you have high speed charging right at the track.
Would agree for an entire track day. Morning session, find a charger and pray you can make a couple of laps for afternoon session.
 
I guess we were due to rehash advertising as it's probably been weeks.
There seems to be two positions on this debate.
  1. Advertising for demand
  2. Advertising for awareness
Obviously, demand isn't a problem for the "yute's" in the lineup currently. For the same reason you don't stop at the Chinese buffet on the way home from dinner, we don't need to upsell those two yet. If the Model S and X sales are deemed soft, then advertising in some form might be the chosen catalyst. However, I doubt it would resemble anything like the traditional ads we now see for competing manufacturers. Rather than assaulting the public with obvious hype and fantasies, I would imagine the "awareness", I had no idea, type of subtle fact, more Tesla's style.

But Tesla is in a unique position that is the envy of their peers. And that is the branding powerhouse. In 15 years, Tesla has become a common lexicon that even people that don't really know or understand Tesla use.
Back in the day, Cadillac had that panache and was used to refer to top level, ultimate, best in class. Even by people that never owned, drove or understood what a Cadillac was. You would hear it referenced on everything from health insurance policies to pizza.

I've seen two references this weekend where Tesla was used to refer to the top of the line for a product. One was a lawn mower and the other was a bicycle. I think we could be on the cusp of Tesla reaching critical mass of public awareness that will outgun the FUD. This could result in Tesla never needing to accelerate awareness.

It's been said that the youth of today are much more suspicious of slick marketing, advertising, reporting, anything where a message is intended to sway their opinion. Look at the push back on religion as an example of how future generations no longer believe everything their elders tell them. After they've experienced enough of these fake stories, they become callous to outrageous claims and question everything. As the exposure to the product starts to snowball, it will be a rare hermit that's ignorant to the advantages Tesla brings to market. Each new release finds new fans whether it's the kid with the McLaren poster that will now swap it for the Plaid S or the business owner looking for the best truck value in the market.

This truth seeking is probably why you see some of the most stubborn and delusional fudsters are older than 40. Sure there are red state youths that still can't think for themselves and are victims of the tribalism that begets coal rolling but the trend seems to be that the more educated, the more likely to seek the truth. Every day Tesla grows their brand, or image, is that much closer to not needing to hype the product. The product hypes the product. The more Tesla's Tesla sells, the more Tesla's Tesla sells.
If Tesla budgets just like GM budgets the cars will be just like GMs. Tesla will die. Thank's for helping shut down the pied pipers. Anyone who has been to business school will turn Tesla into GM by muscle memory instinct - can't help themselves.
 
At some point the vehicle will only be one pixel and even the best NN won´t be able to turn this into anything helpful..
Off topic but on your point:
A great friend of mine actually sold (or still sells?) a type of 1-pixel camera for a very specialised use.
It scans a narrow part of sky and triggers a signal when brightness suddenly changes. Enables exact, non-human timing for line-control model plane formula team racing*, eliminating a source of contention from manual timers disagreeing. Very popular in select circles (geddit?) and he gets invited to championship events more or less globally.

But extremely limited total market, as mentioned.

* limits on wing area, engine volume 2.5 cc, tank volume max 7 cc so you must land and refill at least once per race over 10,000 meters, etc, IIRC
 
TL;DR - The Tesla product and manufacturing innovation/efficiency lead continues to grow. My thoughts on why Tesla continues to extend its lead with every new 'competition' product launch.

All other things are a short term distraction for investors.

I've written this for the TMC investor thread community; not for public consumption as there is too much context for n00bs. Yeah, I'm a bull, but I feel I'm a very informed, tech engineer, turned product manager, first principles bull.

The best, most reliable, my 'go-to' sources for information on Tesla continue to be (I'm not associated with them, they are my heroes however):
  • Dave Lee @ Dave Lee on Investing - amazing insights abound
  • Rob @ Tesla Daily - all things financial
  • Jordan @ The Limiting Factor - all things battery
  • Sandy @ Munro Associates - *nearly* all things vehicle production (software, ECU, custom chips need some work, luv ya Sandy!)
  • Zac and Jesse @ Now you Know - super informative, super funny

Much longer version below...


While most or maybe even all of us know that some EV competition is 'coming' (Rivian, Lucid, NIO...etc), we also know, most at at an arms length, that it is really hard to bring to mass production, taking years to ramp, needing the best engineers, visionary leadership and the capital to keep the gears turning. Any one of these things not fully onboard and or operating efficiently will most likely spell doom at worst or at best cause such a lag as to not be competitive when the product is announced to launched.

We also know, from even the most recent product launches of competition that there are marketing, pent up demand or 'fanboy' purchasing for a quarter or even longer if their are government incentives, then come the dealer incentives and once those run out, the product seemingly goes into life support.

You don't need to look any farther than Tesla's software lead, but when you do you see so much more. Many more insurmountable moats that continue to grow. Underneath software is firmware, then custom ECU's, then custom ASIC's or state of the art chips like the new graphics in the S (not industry standard). These power the entire car and enable to the engineering playground to quickly iterate and enable the most advanced features of any product (not exclusive to autos). Even with my time at Tesla and working on BIOS at Dell and XBOX, I'm absolutely floored that Cyberpunk 2077 at 60fps is playable and appears smooth on the S. It is such an amazing achievement and speaks volumes to their engineering prowess and vision. This is also the tip of the tech iceberg as Sandy continues to discover in his teardowns that Tesla has such a huge lead on HVAC innovations (Octovalve), IDRA gigpress chassis, structural batteries, BMS, motors, inverters, gearboxes...etc (the list is so long). For instance, how many OEM's make their own body controls ECU's? or even know how to swap out a bootloader in the field? (I'd guess none as none have ever demonstrated it or even talked about implementing features which would demonstrate it).

I've been an investor for over 10 years now, been through several valleys, seen some ATH mountaintops and never once thought that competition is at Tesla's doorstep. When the S launched in 2012 I thought OEM's would, out of sheer fear, start reverse engineering and then start production of their own EV optimized chassis and all the other necessary engineering to 'catch up'. This effectively didn't happen and was evident when Porsche released the Taycan. A great effort, but sorely lacking in so many areas that it is a testimonial to how a formerly leading OEM has been put to task and failed to deliver product/marketplace competition. Their product is beautiful, track worthy and that's where it ends as it is also less efficient, much more expensive and has serious issues at the software and firmware side (this is at a glance; so their might be more. I'll wait for the Sandy teardown if one such should happen).

My bias shows as I believe that all other competitors either in production or announced with specifications available are simply a feeble attempt at marketing hype. This includes the Lightning which I wish and hope will be better when launched, but I just don't see how a car with a huge mechanical button on it's beautiful, large LCD screen will have good, industry leading tech underneath it. Huge sigh. Rivian is so darn close, I hope they can find a niche, but that is all they will get is a tiny fraction and it looks like a great product, but lacks many specifications that are key. I'm very cautious to say it will compete.

Let's never forget that traditional OEM's have huge 'boat anchors' holding them back from even keeping up with Tesla's pace of innovation
  • Tesla has no appreciable/material marketing, in any country, while selling every car it makes (low # of days of inventory).
  • Tesla will effectively double it's manufacturing footprint next year
  • Tesla innovates at every level of form, fit and function as well as the creation and production of these innovations
  • Tesla attracts the best talent
  • Tesla has no ties to dealerships
  • Tesla has no ties to gas
  • Tesla soon, maybe currently, will take to production, it's own batteries from scratch (4680 Kato outputs)
  • Tesla has long term contracts for raw battery materials
To conclude, there have been 2 major events in the timeline of Tesla that have gone so underappreciated, or better to say, way over the heads of investors, that it is astounding.

  • Tesla Autonomy day with custom inference and training chips
  • Tesla Battery day with structural batteries and so much more that it makes my head spin
and on the horizon will be Tesla AI day. Which I'd bet will also be very hard to understand for the investor community. How many know about GPT3? How many know about BERT? Inception v3? We have yet to see any fruits of the Dojo labor and hopefully are on the cusp of experiencing FSD beta with 3D labeled training data.

It speaks volumes that not only does Tesla make the most performance minded, fastest accelerating cars on the market, but they are also the safest ever made, most tech advanced, consistently getting industry revolutionizing software updates OTA and are the cheapest to maintain/operate making them a seemingly brain-dead value decision when considering 5 year TCO. This has never happened in modern times or ever. Any why would it? No car company has ever had a vision like Tesla.

Would you rather have a Model 3 or Honda Civic or name any other car? Oh and the Civic (other car) is more money over 5 years (TCO). Hmm, lets see. Objectively, Tesla is materially better in all the ways that matter to consumers and they can only find out if they 'search it up' on the intertubes or ask around. This will reign true for years to come. Thanks for reading!

I'll have some more of that, sir.


BTW, what are your thoughts on radar removal?