Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Thekiwi]

BTC discussion should absolutely be happening in this thread when it’s price drops to a level that it materially impacts Tesla’s quarterly earnings, which in turn likely has an impact on intraday share price movement (We don’t need constant price updates on it, but it does need to be mentioned)

it’s an unfortunate result of Tesla boneheaded “investment” into craptoassets, but regardless of personal feelings on that, it is still material to near term earnings outlook.

 

[Zero CO2]

While we are cleaning up our act i wanted to point out the name of this thread

"Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable"​

therefore any discussion about Tesla the company, TSLA the stock, the investment world , stocks, bonds, currency, accounting, balance sheets , price tagets , valution measures etc, etc, should be fair game

I find a lot of topics I would consider to be part of "& the Investment World" deemed by many to be OT or moved for example Bitcoin is part of the investment world ... the different angles brought by some "OT" are quite informative ... so if i take the title at face value I should be able to talk about it at the roundtable

maybe AudubonB should weigh in

 

[Discoducky]

For me, as an investor in TSLA, I'm really excited about seeing how this chart plays out.

I think the fun will start with blowout Q2 numbers due hopefully as soon as July 2nd.

My guess is that with just Fremont and Shanghai they are at a 1M/year run-rate currently. And assuming that, we should then realize that when Tesla makes their millionth car in the year of 2021, we should see a shock-wave, as it would appear the P/E ratio is not good enough for this rate of change in deliveries.

Why? That crazy slope is Shanghai. A factory built by Tesla from mud, with all new robots and efficiencies that no other car company is, can or will be able to keep up with. The moat is moot as it continues to get wider. Fremont was sooooooo hard to ramp. Ugh, we had to take out all the old NUMMI stuff, which usually meant ripping up concrete and trying to shoehorn in whatever we could. The camera calibration station was put together overnight with a target sign that we designed a few days prior and done while the car was getting aligned, right before dyno. Anyways, lots of fun was had and we shipped it, but I just can't imagine how well imagined and innovative Shangai is to scale so incredibly fast. So much innovation it makes my head spin. Now imagine how much faster Austin and Berlin will ramp? I realize that they are tied somewhat to 4860 ramp, but I would expect that they will continue to be battery constrained.

Competition? I'm still hoping for some, I honestly am. In Seattle, how many Taycan's, i-Pace, ID3 or any other new EV's have I seen? Nearly null. I can't even find one to do my own comparison. Saw a MachE, but the little old lady driving it seemed to not be one to know what is really going on with EV's. Very happy for her that she's driving a BEV however.

Tesla's Vehicle Deliveries Growth Rate Is Accelerating

Shares of Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) jumped sharply on Monday, climbing more than 4%. The stock's gain came after the electric-car company released better-than-expected first-quarter deliveries.While the strong first-quarter deliveries bode well for Tesla's financial results for the pe

www.nasdaq.com

 

[The Accountant]

I think that financial models of valuation and/or quarterly earnings models could similarly deserve their own threads.

Your point is valid regarding financial forecasts having its own thread because often the back and forth can delve into arcane accounting principles.
Many of us producing quarterly financial forecasts post them in the thread below where (to use @Krugerrand 's term) boring accountants and finance people can discuss average selling price, margins, deferred taxes and other exciting accounting material. We often come to this thread to refer members to the "future quarterly financials" thread when we have posted an important update.

Near-future quarterly financial projections

If anyone has *a lot* of time on their hands I would appreciate some comments on my first draft income model out to 2035. I tried to make it reasonably comprehensive. I'm sure there are some dramatically bad estimations here and I'm gonna keep tinkering with presentability and justification. I...

teslamotorsclub.com

I often post here in this Investors' Roundtable thread when I feel I have some insight that all investors can benefit from . . . such as the Bitcoin impact on Q2 based on today's price action or the other day when I posted that Tesla will have Q2 GAAP earnings excluding Reg Credits selling only 3 & Y. In these cases I try to be concise and avoid accounting speak.

I think this approach works and I will continue to post here in the thread with financial insights that I think membes can benefit from.

 

[SpaceCash]

Yeah but did you think that they would just steal our money? That's the narrative being pushed by the scumbags.

Not at all, I knew they'd make it right, I hear you.

 

[Singuy]

MS reiterate PT 900 with today's note.

 

[nativewolf]

Thanks for sharing that @Singuy Not sure why people keep harping on Tesla to partner. This harping seems idiotic to me. Right now no one can innovate as fast as Tesla seems to be moving. Partnering barely worked with Panasonic; relationship like LG/CATL are just vendor agreements. Did google partner? Did MS? Partnering is a whole other cultural issue for Tesla and they have enough to deal with for now.

The only real partnering I've see elsewhere is the State of Brandenburg..they really committed to get Tesla up and going. Well done Brandenburg.

I agree on China, high risk and limited upside but worth being there..just not a place to put eggs.

Batteries are everything for next 3 years- Tesla has to run faster than LG/CATL and others. Key to energy and transporation

Supply chain barely mentioned- nickl anyone?

Manufacturing innovation barely mentioned- the key driver imho

 

[Curt Renz]

MarketWatch - 7 minutes ago: Why this Tesla taxi fleet won’t be allowed to operate in NYC

Excerpt:

The five-to-one vote by the Taxi and Limousine Commission blocks electric transit startup Revel from launching its fleet of 50 Model Y Tesla taxis without breaking city rules. The TLC argued that Revel can still operate if it buys 50 gas cars and swaps their licenses out for electric vehicles — a requirement that Revel called “the very definition of limiting market competition.”

Poll on Twitter: "Do you believe a government regulator should refuse to issue taxi licenses for electric cars?"

https://twitter.com/x/status/1407473597556441090

 

[Singuy]

Thanks for sharing that @Singuy Not sure why people keep harping on Tesla to partner. This harping seems idiotic to me. Right now no one can innovate as fast as Tesla seems to be moving. Partnering barely worked with Panasonic; relationship like LG/CATL are just vendor agreements. Did google partner? Did MS? Partnering is a whole other cultural issue for Tesla and they have enough to deal with for now.

The only real partnering I've see elsewhere is the State of Brandenburg..they really committed to get Tesla up and going. Well done Brandenburg.

I agree on China, high risk and limited upside but worth being there..just not a place to put eggs.

Batteries are everything for next 3 years- Tesla has to run faster than LG/CATL and others. Key to energy and transporation

Supply chain barely mentioned- nickl anyone?

Manufacturing innovation barely mentioned- the key driver imho

I don't know if Tesla has to run faster than LG/CATL since they are partners and not competitors. Tesla just needs to make sure they are the key partner with LG/CATL so they are allocated what is required for them to scale. Tesla will need every battery they can get their hands on till the decade is over. There are just so many back order items like Semi/powerwall/megapacks/cyber trucks/ list goes on and on. SO much money left on the table right now due to a lack of batteries. Tesla didn't invent the 4680s because they want the best battery tech. They had to because they see this wall hitting them hard after Berlin and Texas comes online. In fact 4680s is the reason why there are two gigafactories being built or else they would just stick to ramping Shanghai with the supply they are allocated.

 

[nativewolf]

I don't think LG or CATL are sleeping...just that they don't have the same mission as tesla and frankly if I were running LG or CATL I would want to limit Tesla to keep it from being too much of my sales growth story. So, I expect LG and CATL to actually prioritize other manufactures when possible as long as there is a shortage in supply. Just logical. Therefore, Tesla needs to run faster.

I think we agree that battery plant capacity and innovation in battery use ( software, tuning, vehicle performance, octavalve, etc) are the keys to succeeding in the mission. And making a buck

 

[insaneoctane]

What I'm guessing from the context here is that he's comparing the top-end price to the base price. So he's saying Cybertruck's top price is only a little higher than its base price (although that's an odd way to characterize a price that's almost double the base).

Other than that odd wording I think it's actually a nice high-level comparison video based on what we know so far.

Yeah, that’s the conclusion I came to as its the only explanation for that comment relative to ANY math. While the segment was more or less fair, a few things besides the price “error” jumped out….

• Have we seen CT frunk? They said TWICE that both will have big frunks…well, F150 frunk is admittedly huge. CT is unknown and with the front slope, may very well be smaller. This is a poor assumption to me.
• The representation that because F150 had Aluminum body panels that it, too, was novel like the CT’s Space-grade SS. Not.Even.Close.
• Charging speed and/or infrastructure?
• The pricing wording was not only strange but deserved more “comparison” since high-end CT vs HE F150….CThas 67% more range, more towing, more HP and is still 30% cheaper?

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Poll on Twitter: "Do you believe a government regulator should refuse to issue taxi licenses for electric cars?"

https://twitter.com/x/status/1407473597556441090

I think, as currently worded, your poll misses the point. NYC is trying to solve a congestion issue (aka too many cars on the road). Perhaps the question should be, "Shouldn't NYC revoke the taxi license of current ICE vehicle taxi operators instead of forcing an incoming competitor to buy them out?"

 

[MC3OZ]

I feel folks should limit - or eliminate - FTFY posts and animated gifs, since we're airing our feelings as to how to make this thread better...

I find I often can't resist the lure of OT discussions in the following areas, separate threads may help:-

• Engineering including battery developments, and speculation.
• Tesla's mission - clean energy and transport in general.
• FSD progress - Vision v Libar/ Radar..

I do see all of the above as important aspects that do impact Tesla's future prospects, but I am aware this probably isn't the right thread.

I think a general - Engineering Discussion thread may help - keep it broad like this thread, perhaps as an alternative for those interested in those topics...

Otherwise, I am sometimes smart enough to hunt for a more relevant thread, but there are so many that few people read them.

 

[wipster]

Comparing the electric Ford F-150 Lightning to the Tesla Cybertruck​

CNET - 4 hours ago:

Gotta say, that was pretty spot on, more so than I expected.

 

[wipster]

CNET. Assuming it was a mistake and not intentional, stated the Ford topped out at $90,474 loaded. The Tesla, a little higher at $69,900. New math I suppose.

I assumed he meant higher than the base price...

 

[Paul_SF]

Re CATL:

 

[Cherry Wine]

Honda pledges to phase out ICE vehicle production by 2040.

Honda Goes All In on Electric in Stark Contrast to Toyota

Honda Motor Co. has become the first of Japan’s automakers to state publicly it will phase out sales of gasoline-powered cars completely, setting 2040 as the goal and giving newly minted Chief Executive Officer Toshihiro Mibe a once-in-a-career chance to put his stamp on a firm that can trace...

www.bloomberg.com

 

[Artful Dodger]

Significant TSLA trading volume again After-hrs today, with 892,783 shares traded totalling over 4.9% of the Main session volume.

Also significant is the fact that SP remained very stable (in fact ending the A/hrs session up slightly).

IMO, this is more of the rebalancing activity we saw yesterday when the A/hrs session was over 6.5% of the Main session volume. Good to see order and stability in the Force Order Book.

Cheers!

 

[ZeApelido]

MS reiterate PT 900 with today's note.

Hey remember when Morgan Stanley had that analyst who said TSLA's possible range was $2 - $100? Whatever happened to that guy?



Oh....

 

[Skryll]

Today had to reaffirm my investment thesis. Remember, competition is here now, ID4, MachE... so I test drove both. I knew what to expect from the ID4 based on previous reviews, but I am surprised how much more I expected of the MachE. Reports of 'fun to drive, corners great, better than Tesla' and 'switch to unbridled mode and its super aggressive' do not at all match my experience. I drove the AWD with the larger battery. Where the Tesla feels like a slingshot, where you have the unfair advantage over all the other cars because of the immediacy of the control, the MachE just drives like a car. And when cornering, tires are screeching and it feels much more hesitant than the smooth turn on a dime of both our 2018 Model 3 RWD as well as the 2016 Model X90D. I can clearly say, both are drastically more fun to drive than the 2021 MachE I drove today. Also where my X90D with the limited fast charging proposed a 7 hour trip to Universal Studios from SF, the MachE came up with a 10 hour itinerary, and did not easily volunteer what that would look like.

Getting back into the Tesla after test driving the VW ID4 felt like being released from prison, which wasn't as bad when coming back from the MachE. So the MachE is more fun to drive and has less lag than the ID4. But still has lag. Getting back into the X and driving off made me giddy and pumped up, and I uttered excited profanities, that moderators here would ban me for, on the first opportunity to feel the slingshot difference.

Time to accumulate more TSLA.