Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ChefBoyardee]

So if Tesla isn't done perfecting the dry electrode process, does that mean 4680 aren't scaling? Or does that mean it's just a slower process?

Since flyovers show construction already starting for the battery factories, I'd say "not quite done" means any kinks they still need to work out either won't affect the design of the factories or will be worked out before construction finishes.

I'm sure even once mass production starts, they'll be improving the process to ramp up the speed even more. I see this as good news

 

[ReddyLeaf]

I am expecting that for combined Megacharger/Supercharger sites with lots of stalls.

I think they may be able to get at least 1 kW of solar panels on a typical parking spot.
A lot varies with location but I think 6 kwh per pay per spot is a fairly conservative number. it could be higher say 10 kWh.
But if we say 10 stalls, the site generates 60 kWh per day, while it is a low amount, it will pay for the solar panels.

Sites need to be Supercharger V3 and have batteries to install solar, as sites get larger, it makes more sense.

Pretty close to what my napkin math estimates. Minimum parking spot size is 9’x18’, or close to 6 m2. Solar flux is about 1KW per m2 x 25% efficiency x 6hr avg = 9KWh. Larger spots can be 10’x20’. There’s also the possibility of covering the drivable spaces. So maximum might be 20KWh/ spot/day. Definitely not enough to charge unless average occupancy is <50%. Certainly not enough to positively impact financials without massive solar farms and batteries. With megachargers for semis the calculations are probably even worse, though the solar coverage area will be larger.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So if Tesla isn't done perfecting the dry electrode process, does that mean 4680 aren't scaling? Or does that mean it's just a slower process?

That is NOT what Elon said:

Elon Musk on Twitter: "@Model3Owners Dry electrode is a key piece (one of many pieces) of the puzzle for lowering cost of lithium batteries. That said, it has required an *immense* amount of engineering to take Maxwell’s proof-of-concept to high-quality, volume production & we’re still not quite done." / Twitter​

All this means is that "volume production" hasn't arrived yet. Duh. When Austin and Berlin are ramped, then an immense amnt of engineering work will be behind them, but never quite "done".

The mere fact that Tesla has decided to alter the Giga Berlin application to include a new bty cell factory (not in the orginal application) speaks LOUDLY as to Elon's confidence in the outcome of this development process.

The rest is FUD. As usual.

Cheers!

 

[dww12]

The recent carwow video will be seen by millions & will lead to huge demand for Tesla in UK. In my opinion it could move sentiment in the UK (and presumably other countries). Truly "Crossed the Chasm" into "Mainstream" (Pragmatists, Early Majority). Further videos will include Matt's Mum picking up the Tesla, getting an EVSE (charger) fitted at her house & presumably living with the TM3SR+ doing long trips, Superchargers etc.

Nearly half a million views in 10 hours. It's this kind of exposure which leads to far more demand than Tesla can meet for many years.

To me, the view count is indicative of a lot of interest, from normal car buyers & particularly from groups that don't typically SEEM to be depicted as Tesla buyer stereotypes (eg UK 'little old ladies'). Plus the channel has a lot of subscribers. She wanted an SUV originally, but was enthusiastic about the Model 3 SR+


View attachment 686770

Interestingly, 4 out of carwow's 6 most popular videos include Teslas. None of Car & Driver's videos are above 9 million. Consumer Reports highest is at 10 million (but rapidly goes down, second is only 3.8 million). Munro Live has 1 video above 1 million at 2.3 million
View attachment 686771

Now that’s what I call the stick of truth! Wow.

 

[jbcarioca]

…

It's ridiculous and proves the point that the objection MUST be driven by the car maker (OEM) members. They do not want Tesla to earn revenue from their customers. What other rationale for this dual view on allowed adapters is there? It certainly can't be technical.

Obviously if one reads the position paper and regards that as the final regulation you’re correct. The position papers are not actually policy and may never be. Some of them do, others do not. My point is that the actual final results constitute policy, rather than position papers. If you look over the historical position papers you’ll find a fair number that never happened.

There is a concerted effort to induce Tesla, China and Japan to adopt CCS as native solutions. They do have considerable impetus. The adapter paper is an attempt to advance that agenda. According to my sources the Position Paper had that in mind, with an adapter the cover for that. Please not that the existing Tesla to CCS adapter was not impeded.

Since Tesla has already come close to final agreements to permit non-Tesla access to Superchargers The internal CharIN staff thought this was a good chance to pressure Tesla to adopt CCS in North America as they have done in Europe.

Asserting that this was about shutting out Tesla from non-Tesla use is the issue is not logical.
Tesla EU already has CCS with minor modifications to allow broader use. German OEM’s and others would like access to Superchargers on some basis, even thought the initial partisans may not be EU owned. Because one major desire is NA access there is every reason to invent Tesla to change in NA it did in EU.

It has zero to do with a desire to avoid Tesla having revenue from Supercharger use by others.
Anyway, if the US Administration plans actually happen Tesla will have far more pressure to change.

Finally, we might recall that the Tesla standard only happened in 2012 because there was no established standard. The Tesla standard has no magic proprietary power, although it is much less bulky that is CCS, there is better interoperability with CCS, with standard approaches to payment systems that make Tesla Energy advances easier.

 

[Jack6591]

My name is Due Diligence, but I have stood on the shoulders of giants…

Just a little shout out to those that have led my analysis:

@The Accountant
@Artful Dodger
@Curt Renz
@Papafox
@Rob Maurer
@Troy Treslike
@Dave Lee Investing
@DrKnowItAll

Gentlemen,
More than anything, I respect work ethic. Elon Musk lives at the intersection of genius and good old fashioned work ethic. In each of you I sense this passion, a passion for working your butt off and sprinting through the finish line.
My family and I have prospered from the seeds you have planted and nurtured. Above all of this, I admire those who teach—teaching is indeed, the greatest calling. Day in and day out, you gentlemen have worked tirelessly to advance the truth and understanding around Tesla.
Monday, will certainly be an inflection point. Regardless of what Monday may bring; thank you all for your contributions, you greatly improved my study and analysis. You inspired me to Due Diligence.

For the many I failed to mention, please forgive my feeble memory.

 

[Carl Raymond]

View attachment 686779

Also recent talk of BHP exiting fossil fuels. At least one somebody at the “big Australian“ has seen the future.

BHP considering exiting oil and gas business - Bloomberg News

Global miner BHP Group (BHP.AX) is considering getting out of oil and gas in a multibillion-dollar exit as it looks to speed up its retreat from fossil fuels, Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter.

www.reuters.com

BHP commits to selling its thermal coalmines within two years

Move follows pressure from investors but company stops short of full exit from coalmining

www.theguardian.com

Metalurgical coal will be the last to go. Without a carbon tax there’s little incentive to switch to hydrogen for steel making.

The tide may be turning, but of course our Federal govt remains beholden to fossil fuel interests. I’ll let you know if they start putting planet first. One possibility is that the US starts leaning on us to go green. That would pretty much do it…

 

[Tachyon]

My name is Due Diligence, but I have stood on the shoulders of giants…

View attachment 686805

Just a little shout out to those that have led my analysis:

@The Accountant
@Artful Dodger
@Curt Renz
@Papafox
@Rob Maurer
@Troy Treslike
@Dave Lee Investing
@DrKnowItAll

Gentlemen,
More than anything, I respect work ethic. Elon Musk lives at the intersection of genius and good old fashioned work ethic. In each of you I sense this passion, a passion for working your butt off and sprinting through the finish line.
My family and I have prospered from the seeds you have planted and nurtured. Above all of this, I admire those who teach—teaching is indeed, the greatest calling. Day in and day out, you gentlemen have worked tirelessly to advance the truth and understanding around Tesla.
Monday, will certainly be an inflection point. Regardless of what Monday may bring; thank you all for your contributions, you greatly improved my study and analysis. You inspired me to Due Diligence.

For the many I failed to mention, please forgive my feeble memory.

Amen!

 

[goinfraftw]

My name is Due Diligence, but I have stood on the shoulders of giants…

View attachment 686805

Just a little shout out to those that have led my analysis:

@The Accountant
@Artful Dodger
@Curt Renz
@Papafox
@Rob Maurer
@Troy Treslike
@Dave Lee Investing
@DrKnowItAll

Gentlemen,
More than anything, I respect work ethic. Elon Musk lives at the intersection of genius and good old fashioned work ethic. In each of you I sense this passion, a passion for working your butt off and sprinting through the finish line.
My family and I have prospered from the seeds you have planted and nurtured. Above all of this, I admire those who teach—teaching is indeed, the greatest calling. Day in and day out, you gentlemen have worked tirelessly to advance the truth and understanding around Tesla.
Monday, will certainly be an inflection point. Regardless of what Monday may bring; thank you all for your contributions, you greatly improved my study and analysis. You inspired me to Due Diligence.

For the many I failed to mention, please forgive my feeble memory.

Inspiring, my man!

 

[willow_hiller]

Looks like in addition to third-party installations of Powerwall and Solar Roof, Tesla's now introduced third-party installations of their new 420 watt solar panels and Wall Connectors.

SUNation is offering 420 watt Tesla panels, Powerwall, and Wall Connector together as a "Tesla Ecosystem" package: Tesla Ecosystem - SUNation Solar Systems

 

[Blue horseshoe]

Looks like in addition to third-party installations of Powerwall and Solar Roof, Tesla's now introduced third-party installations of their new 420 watt solar panels and Wall Connectors.

SUNation is offering 420 watt Tesla panels, Powerwall, and Wall Connector together as a "Tesla Ecosystem" package: Tesla Ecosystem - SUNation Solar Systems

This is good news. Localized regulations and permitting, in addition to installation were major chokepoints for Tesla energy. Partnering with installers should help with growing the energy side of the business.

 

[Artful Dodger]

"No, he didn't let off."

TESLA PLAID vs RAVEN * Weighed, measured and...

P.S. 2021 Plaid S is 164 lbs lighter than the 2020 Ludicrous Raven S: 4,833 lbs vs 4,997 lbs

 

[Mengy]

Will be listening intently through the earnings call for anything that clarifies what “not quite done” means.

Yeah, at this stage I'd expect the process to be "done" seeing how Austin and Berlin are going live soon and both require the 4680 to be in production.

 

[PeterJA]

I recently discovered this Tesla YouTuber (maybe from a post here). He seems like one of the better ones.

 

[rk20]

The many vs the one. (Other CEOs vs Elon Musk) Guess who will win.

 

[hacer]

Obviously if one reads the position paper and regards that as the final regulation you’re correct. The position papers are not actually policy and may never be. Some of them do, others do not. My point is that the actual final results constitute policy, rather than position papers. If you look over the historical position papers you’ll find a fair number that never happened.

There is a concerted effort to induce Tesla, China and Japan to adopt CCS as native solutions. They do have considerable impetus. The adapter paper is an attempt to advance that agenda. According to my sources the Position Paper had that in mind, with an adapter the cover for that. Please not that the existing Tesla to CCS adapter was not impeded.

Since Tesla has already come close to final agreements to permit non-Tesla access to Superchargers The internal CharIN staff thought this was a good chance to pressure Tesla to adopt CCS in North America as they have done in Europe.

Asserting that this was about shutting out Tesla from non-Tesla use is the issue is not logical.
Tesla EU already has CCS with minor modifications to allow broader use. German OEM’s and others would like access to Superchargers on some basis, even thought the initial partisans may not be EU owned. Because one major desire is NA access there is every reason to invent Tesla to change in NA it did in EU.

It has zero to do with a desire to avoid Tesla having revenue from Supercharger use by others.
Anyway, if the US Administration plans actually happen Tesla will have far more pressure to change.

Finally, we might recall that the Tesla standard only happened in 2012 because there was no established standard. The Tesla standard has no magic proprietary power, although it is much less bulky that is CCS, there is better interoperability with CCS, with standard approaches to payment systems that make Tesla Energy advances easier.

Agree to disagree. I will just leave you with this old post of mine: standards bodies

 

[gabeincal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1418049110922330120

 

[TheTalkingMule]

My name is Due Diligence, but I have stood on the shoulders of giants…

View attachment 686805

Just a little shout out to those that have led my analysis:

@The Accountant
@Artful Dodger
@Curt Renz
@Papafox
@Rob Maurer
@Troy Treslike
@Dave Lee Investing
@DrKnowItAll

Gentlemen,
More than anything, I respect work ethic. Elon Musk lives at the intersection of genius and good old fashioned work ethic. In each of you I sense this passion, a passion for working your butt off and sprinting through the finish line.
My family and I have prospered from the seeds you have planted and nurtured. Above all of this, I admire those who teach—teaching is indeed, the greatest calling. Day in and day out, you gentlemen have worked tirelessly to advance the truth and understanding around Tesla.
Monday, will certainly be an inflection point. Regardless of what Monday may bring; thank you all for your contributions, you greatly improved my study and analysis. You inspired me to Due Diligence.

For the many I failed to mention, please forgive my feeble memory.

I read these geniuses for fun, but really I did pretty much all the heavy lifting in the 2nd post of this thread. Coulda just shut it down right there.

Is it Monday yet???

 

[Artful Dodger]

Happy Birthday, Giga Texas! May you have many more!

Tesla Gigafactory Texas 22 July 2021 Commemorating 1-Year of Construction with Comparison videos!

Cheers!

 

[ke6jph]

My name is Due Diligence, but I have stood on the shoulders of giants…

View attachment 686805

Just a little shout out to those that have led my analysis:

@The Accountant
@Artful Dodger
@Curt Renz
@Papafox
@Rob Maurer
@Troy Treslike
@Dave Lee Investing
@DrKnowItAll

Gentlemen,
More than anything, I respect work ethic. Elon Musk lives at the intersection of genius and good old fashioned work ethic. In each of you I sense this passion, a passion for working your butt off and sprinting through the finish line.
My family and I have prospered from the seeds you have planted and nurtured. Above all of this, I admire those who teach—teaching is indeed, the greatest calling. Day in and day out, you gentlemen have worked tirelessly to advance the truth and understanding around Tesla.
Monday, will certainly be an inflection point. Regardless of what Monday may bring; thank you all for your contributions, you greatly improved my study and analysis. You inspired me to Due Diligence.

For the many I failed to mention, please forgive my feeble memory.

Like you, I have been advised, encouraged and inspired by the listed and many other posters that are part of this fantastic resource. This forum and the linked information has allowed me to retire and be able to prosper beyond my wildest dreams. We continue to hold and only sell when required to cover living expenses.
Since my initial investment early 2013, I have read this form and related links allowing me to slowly move all of our retirement funds into TSLA.
Now some of you will council me on having some diversification. I have been in the auto industry my whole life and understand the position the auto industry is in. I had to close my Linked-in account to stop the solicitation for employment emails that keep coming in.
Your elegant post highlights my view.
Thank you ask,
Mark