Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[wooter]

You guys using a controller to play this?

No. First time I consider getting a controller though.

 

[jeewee3000]

Tesla saw about 63,000 cancellations of Model 3 preorders

The company had a total of 518,000 preorders but 455,000 net orders at last count.

www.vox.com

63,000 cancellations from 518,000 reservations.

12.16%

Source is Elon himself on earnings call mid-2017 just as Model 3 deliveries had begun.

CT cancellation rate will likely be higher since the deposit was 1/10 that of the Model 3. We see lots of people having +5 CT's on order. With the Model 3 the limit was two each IIRC.

 

[BrownOuttaSpec]

I think it'll be very very interesting to see how the reservation rate under the new $100 system translates to real orders

I know folks who have early reservations for multiple CTs, but absolutely could not afford to buy even ONE CT- they thought it'd be cool to tell people they have them reserved, and hey maybe they'll win the lottery or somehow stop being terrible with money in a couple years when the truck is ready.

I also know folks who 100% plan to buy one, and can afford to, but didn't bother with the reservation because they're from the "I don't start reading a book series until the author has finished the series" school of thought.

And of course I'm sure others know all sorts of other people all across the range.

I'd be surprised if the "reserved but does not order" rate isn't a decent bit higher for CT than it was for say the 3- given the 10x drop in cost for a reservation... but then the reservation # is a lot higher for CT as well, and "full size truck" is a lot bigger addressable market too.

(IIRC The 3 had a little over 500k reservations and the cancellation rate ended up around 12% of those).

While I do agree with you I think what you aren't accounting for is FSD and robotaxi. People who pre-ordered got in at $8k for FSD instead of today's price of $10k. If FSD is mature/operational then people may buy them just for the resale. And if Robotaxi is operational as well by the time people's reservations are available (2-3 years) then it's completely different all together.

 

[Stone_Watcher]

I think it'll be very very interesting to see how the reservation rate under the new $100 system translates to real orders

I know folks who have early reservations for multiple CTs, but absolutely could not afford to buy even ONE CT- they thought it'd be cool to tell people they have them reserved, and hey maybe they'll win the lottery or somehow stop being terrible with money in a couple years when the truck is ready.

I also know folks who 100% plan to buy one, and can afford to, but didn't bother with the reservation because they're from the "I don't start reading a book series until the author has finished the series" school of thought.

And of course I'm sure others know all sorts of other people all across the range.

I'd be surprised if the "reserved but does not order" rate isn't a decent bit higher for CT than it was for say the 3- given the 10x drop in cost for a reservation... but then the reservation # is a lot higher for CT as well, and "full size truck" is a lot bigger addressable market too.

(IIRC The 3 had a little over 500k reservations and the cancellation rate ended up around 12% of those).

I know several people with multiple trucks in order banking on robo-taxi. Many of those orders will be canceled if robo-taxi is not viable at the time of delivery.

Edit: Brown beat me by seconds. Leaving my post as it offers the counter point and that’s important. I am bullish on FSD but I expect cyber trucks in the 12 months. Will robo-taxi be viable in that timeframe?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Gotta admire how effective MM’s are. Nasdaq back up close to its high from the start of trading today, Tesla a solid 2% lower from that slow strategic walk down.

Sure would love some blowout China July numbers to come out before Friday that royally messes up their plans. Even if they still manage to keep it to 720, I want to see them have to spend a lot to do it

 

[Vad42]

More than a few people like myself also ordered several extra as a Robotaxi play. If that doesn't look possible in then those orders will go away too. My guess is a 40% conversion rate for the CT, but those who drop will be easily replaced once it gets out on the road.

Wouldn't Y be much more practical Robotaxi than the CT? Just in terms of size, going into cities, etc.. I've been thinking of eventually getting into that side of things if it pans out, but with a Y. I'll use my CT reservation for myself, thankyouverymuch....

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I've heard from one supplier that planned cybertruck volume is currently at 125k/yr ( 2022, 2023). I guess they will need to increase it at some point.

At 125k/year....i hope they get more cancellations so i can get mine by 2023

 

[Big Time]

QQQ rebound

 

[Knightshade]

While I do agree with you I think what you aren't accounting for is FSD and robotaxi.

Because those things don't really exist yet (well, FSD exists as an L2 ADAS package, but not in the sense I think you mean it).

. If FSD is mature/operational then people may buy them just for the resale. And if Robotaxi is operational as well by the time people's reservations are available (2-3 years) then it's completely different all together.

As the Spartan ephors once said... "If"


The great thing is even if FSD never gets any better than L2, Tesla will still sell all they can make for years to come- because it's simply a great product/value as a vehicle.

 

[NooB_cat]

You guys using a controller to play this?

I just played this for the first time today - instant addiction! Going to get myself a controller for it to save wearing out my scrolling finger!

 

[jbcarioca]

The article below is a long read and actually quite good coming from the Guardian. Although it's actually an edited extract from A Brief History of Motion: From the wheel to the car and what comes next, published by Bloomsbury on 18 August.

It provides a lot of interesting detail about the transition from horses to electric then petrol cars and now to the modern electric era. It finishes off diverting into data privacy concerns with the "internet of motion" but overall doesn't get too deep into FUD. Worth a read if your interested and can spare a few minutes.

The lost history of the electric car – and what it tells us about the future of transport

Tom Standage is one of my favorite reporters and writers. I have followed him on the Economist for some time. FWIW until now his favorite work for me has been The Victorian Internet. I completely missed The Guardian article, so thanks for pointing it out. I've already ordered it on Amazon, but it will not arrive until the 17th. Bizarrely, perhaps, that is also the first day of my Plaid delivery window. I have greater confidence in Amazon dates than I do in those of Tesla. Honestly I'd still prefer the Plaid.

 

[CLK350]

Don’t think there are enough lawyers for all the lawsuits that would be necessary.

Maybe we should just initiate a new legal action at the close of the market on a daily basis. We should have backups ready to go for the after hours sessions. And we cannot forget those early morning market manipulators.

Think three class actions on a daily basis might cover it for now, but we should be on guard for those special intraday manipulations as well.

Now all we have to do is go back to the IPO and file all the lawsuits.

Actually ... how about just suing the SEC for dereliction of duties/ failing to do the work it is supposed to do? As outrageous at it seems .. this ought to be done, even tho the rot starts way higher. Showing it is in the pocket of the financial houses it is supposed to regulate .. or just plainly getting them to clean house: as Harry Markopolos, who famously tried for 10 years to get the SEC to investigate, prior to Madoff's unraveling (which only happened because Madoff ran out of funds to continue his Ponzi scheme) said: the SEC is run by lawyers who don't understand finance, probably on purpose.
To recall, those SEC officials who turned a deaf ear, or even blocked the investigation weren't reprimanded .. they got promoted.

On a less ambitious scale even the FTT (financial transactions tax) which would prevent HFT and other non economically useful transactions (MM's) didn't go anywhere.

[OT- rant]. Thinking of my tax money paying these SEC buffoons' salaries, as well as by default also paying for the FUD propaganda (who use fake non profits, so by default *I* am paying their taxes) .. annoys me greatly. We have to depend on independent outfits like this TMC, or writers on blogs (filtered by Google, so harder to find, plus Google uses my searches to get paid by the usual advertisers) .. So few sources of solid information when it comes to criticizing our financial system, esp, the worst offender of all JPM who views breaking the law as a cost of doing business and repeatedly rewards its CEO after every felony charge it admits to.. Only thing I can do is donate to the "good guys" like Harry Markopolos*, Pam Martens et al .. sigh.
(*) Not only did the SEC actively ignore and side track the dossier he gave them on a platter, they are trying to get out of paying his whistleblower reward.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

QQQ rebound

Hate to break it to ya, but doesn't matter what the QQQ does unless there's some serious index buying. Clearly the stock is being capped/spoofed pretty hard right now and the second the QQQ/Nasdaq starts to pull back, watch Tesla fall with it. All organic buying volume is nonexistent once again

 

[Drumheller]

While I do agree with you I think what you aren't accounting for is FSD and robotaxi. People who pre-ordered got in at $8k for FSD instead of today's price of $10k. If FSD is mature/operational then people may buy them just for the resale. And if Robotaxi is operational as well by the time people's reservations are available (2-3 years) then it's completely different all together.

I agree and will add that earliest reservations reserved FSD for $7k

 

[StealthP3D]

More than a few people like myself also ordered several extra as a Robotaxi play. If that doesn't look possible in then those orders will go away too. My guess is a 40% conversion rate for the CT, but those who drop will be easily replaced once it gets out on the road.

You're right, the number of Cybertruck pre-orders is completely and utterly irrelevant. I expect only a 20% or less conversion rate if you don't count the ones that are purchased for the purpose of flipping for a profit, but demand will grow organically faster than reservations can be cancelled. Cybertruck will be unobtanium to anyone who is not willing to wait months or years from the time they place their order. This will be the case for the first 4 years of production at a minimum! I should probably add that I believe the number of pre-orders are grossly under-estimated at 1.3 million, probably closer to 2 million.

People who think it can't sell well because it's "butt-ugly" are in for a very rude awakening. They will be forced into facing their own judgement and questioning their very understanding of other people. For a few of them it will be the final straw that precipitates the fall into clinical insanity. Disruption always has collateral damage. It's unfortunate but unavoidable and the blame can hardly be laid on Tesla or Elon Musk.

 

[Nocturnal]

Wouldn't Y be much more practical Robotaxi than the CT? Just in terms of size, going into cities, etc.. I've been thinking of eventually getting into that side of things if it pans out, but with a Y. I'll use my CT reservation for myself, thankyouverymuch....

Perhaps but the big thing for me was the ability to nail down FSD at $7k, with just a refundable $100 deposit. I can't do that with a Y. Cost per mile to run a CT shouldn't be too far from a Y. Maybe a more rugged interior, indestructible exterior, but more expensive tires and lower efficiency. I have 12 on order. 6 dual motors and 6 singles, plus a tri motor for myself.

I think even Tesla bulls are forgetting about fleet and government sales. They certainly won't care about aesthetics.

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

30,896 produced.
There was a 5 day holiday impacting the results. See my post here:

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

According to Sawyer Merritt, the cargo space on both Y and 3 have been increased by 8 cubic feet So is the whole Tesla lineup now going to feature new pocket dimensions? Do you open this rift from the MCU?

teslamotorsclub.com

Thanks. So probably not such a good basis for extrapolation - will have to wait for the July figures to get a better idea of how the ramp is going.

 

[capster]

CT cancellation rate will likely be higher since the deposit was 1/10 that of the Model 3. We see lots of people having +5 CT's on order. With the Model 3 the limit was two each IIRC.

We saw lots of people in the Tesla related forums and community out of the gate talking about ordering 5 or more Cybertrucks.

That is likely not representative. More like those ordering the Cybertruck have averaged ~1.0725 (what was that about precision again ) or the something like that number of Cybertrucks currently.

 

[jbcarioca]

Prior to acquiring a girlfriend who could not drive a manual transmission, I drove lots of cars with a clutch. Not all Americans have to have automatics. My daughter was surprised that when she got her German driver's license by turning in her Pennsylvania one they didn't limit her to automatic. They told her that since her PA license didn't limit her then they wouldn't. Of course that is not a thing in the US that I'm aware of. However I feel sorry for the owner of any manual transmission vehicle if she ever tries driving one. ;-) Will all be moot in 10 years when everyone who wants one has an EV with no transmission and doesn't even need a license to have their car drive them. Not sure even with the best AI a CyberTruck can maneuver a European parking garage.

Then there was my spouse, who said she did not know how to drive an automatic. She learned on our first Tesla, not quite an 'automatic' but oh, so much better.

 

[StealthP3D]

The other was he would willingly make loans to his children. I've only taken one loan from him, to buy my home. A day after he wrote the check he came by and gave me the payment book. 6 pages on a steno pad he had hand-written out. I still have it. This guy was Comptroller for NASA, and he took that night to break out the calculator and do all the math. the caveat with him is what he said when he gave me the "loan book." Son, here it is, you don't have to pay it back. But if you don't when it is time for the will to be read it will be on the ledger, and come out of your part."
I am his favorite (I think) because I paid it back as soon as I could get a better rate with a bank. All my brothers and sisters defaulted on at least one of their loans with him. And he told me that. He finds me "interesting."

Does that mean you can refinance your home with him on the same terms so you can buy more TSLA?

I don't recommend doing this with a normal re-fi, but this is a special case in that it will never be re-possessed and you know it will be paid off in the end. Plus, he probably gives you a very competitive interest rate!