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The latest version of the EV tax credit bill applies only to EVs that cost less than $80k. It will exclude the Model S at its current price.
Would possibly be good if the cap was actually much lower, say $50k. Would be seen as less of a “rich people subsidy” and would benefit automakers who can make EVs retailing for <$50k profitably *cough*Tesla*cough*

It will be interesting to watch how the credit evolves. Latest news indicates there may be a push to include an income cap:

 
Chicago Tribune - this morning: Chicago auto mechanics strike, now in its 2nd week, shuts down service work at 56 new car dealerships

Excerpt:

If you’re looking to get your car serviced at a Chicago-area dealership, it may take a while.

More than 800 auto mechanics are on strike after failing to reach an agreement on a new four-year labor contract, essentially shutting down service work at 56 new car dealerships in the city and the suburbs. The last Chicago auto mechanics strike in 2017 lasted for more than seven weeks before a deal was signed.
Any problems getting a Tesla serviced in the Chicago area these days?
 
Well as things go I am not sure we can replace all that capacity at that rate. Frankly I don't see the battery capacity.

Skeptics of the growth of EV manufacturing and sales have not been in short supply over the last several years. All of them have been wrong. I don't see any reason the future will be very different. Investors don't make superior returns by going with the status quo.

Secondly, I don't see the required tow capacity. If you put a 26k payload behind either light truck it becomes somewhat useless. Not unusual for these f350 and even a 250 to pull huge payloads over 100 miles a day. These are work trucks, guys working 12 hour days is not unusual. We were loading sawdust into a truck on Sunday at 10am and then he put 10k lbs of fencing on top, plus trailer (18' dump) I am sure he was pushing close to 20k lb plus his bed was full of tools and fuel, maybe another 1000lbs. He had driven there sunday morning and still had life to live, hour drive back to farm, then on to church after dropping trailer. Point being that I am not sure you'll see 0 ICE trucks by 2030.

That's a ridiculous comparison. The F-150 Lightning, Cybertruck and the rest of the announced electric pickups only compete with the light-duty truck market, none of which can tow or haul anything approaching the loads you mentioned. It's a completely different use case scenario and small portion of the overall truck market. No one said there would be zero ICE truck sales by 2030. Ford's goals are pure fantasy, they are not mandatory and Ford doesn't intend to stick to them. They are simply lies to placate the regulators and get what they want (which is more ICE sales for as long as they can drag them out). Don't be fooled by Ford's rhetoric.

Also making sure you know that the f150 number includes the 250/350. Maybe 60-70% are actually the f150 getting replaced by the lightening. In any case I think it is moot, both tesla and ford will sell every truck made. Neither can get enough battery capacity and Tesla is way ahead of Ford. Ford was a late mover. VW moved earlier as did GM, GM just didn't do anything useful with that huge headstart. The freaking Volt/bolt. I mean great 10 years ago but just a lost project and they wasted that huge govt subsidy.

Yes, both Tesla and Ford will sell every electric truck they make. The differentiator is Tesla will try to make as many as possible while Ford will only make a trickle of electric trucks. They will make no attempt to expand battery production to solve this because they will only make large margins on ICE trucks and every electric truck sale removes one ICE truck sale. They will blame low production on battery availability, cost or even demand for electric trucks but they will do nothing to remove the barriers protecting their ICE sales.

Ford doesn't break down their F-series sales by light-duty (F-150) and the remaining heavier duty trucks but the best guess of industry analysts is that the F-150 makes up over 75% of their truck sales. Also, a significant portion of the medium and heavy-duty market is consumed by buyers who don't even need a heavy-duty truck, they buy them for various silly reasons like one-upping their brother-in-law, impressing their neighbor or girlfriend because they have a small package down below. The latter is more common than many assume. :rolleyes:
 
Some folks are allegedly being told if they change their order (which would hit them with the $10,000 price bump) they'd get it sooner.

Fred of course made a whole article over said allegations, no link for him though.
There is a discussion ongoing here:

At the risk of going off topic, I would like to expand upon my situation and say that, even though I am a Tesla fanboy through and through and would never buy any car other than a Tesla, I am miffed by the fact that there is no way for me to find out why we have to wait 8 or 9 months to get the car. This will be the third S that I have bought since 2013. I ordered this SLR for my wife who has recently fallen ill. There have been problems with each of the two Ss to date that I have not made a big deal of because, all things considered, it is still the best car I've ever owned. In any case, I wonder what the issue is. Is it because I ordered 19" wheels and they don't have them; is it because they have thousands of orders for much higher margin Plaids and they don't want to build a car that, since my order, has gone up in price by $10,000. It could be anything, but I don't think it is unreasonable for me to know the answer, as a dedicated owner and stakeholder.
 
I wish we had real data for how many working people use truck as you describe and how may are posers. I suspect it's close to 10/90, but I don't really know.

The truth is most truck owners use their trucks very occasionally for tasks that a car cannot perform. Many are not willing to give that up or buy a daily driver so they end up driving their truck everywhere with all the fuel wastage and emissions that entails.
 
Interesting. Typing in Model S Plaid on Bing gives you a cnet article about it bursting in fire as the top link usually reserved for a short synopsis of what it is.. Is this a paid advertisement or is it just my computer?

The real interesting data point here is that you use Bing. /s

Funny story: Sometime after the Bing search engine was released in the market, we had a couple over for drinks. The husband worked at Microsoft and the wife had quit working there to raise her kids (leaving about $5 million in future stock options on the table). In the course of discussion a question came up. The wife said, "Just Bing it". Neither my wife or I had heard of "Bing" so we were a little confused. I think it was I who said "what?" and she repeated "just Bing it" as if we were totally clueless. Neither of us had any clue what she was talking about. When it was finally made clear I said "Oh, you mean just Google it" and she said, "No, Bing it". :rolleyes:

These were otherwise intelligent people but they couldn't see outside their work and group of work friends and it just so happened to fall into that 10-12 year period that I didn't own any MSFT so I was not up on what the company was doing (like most people in the world who didn't work at Microsoft).

This is only tangentially related to TSLA investing. The moral of the story is it's important to not be too close to your subject matter, lest you lose sight of what others are seeing.

To answer your question, when I "Bing" "model s plaid" there is no mention of fires on the first page of results. So I don't know why Bing associates you with an unhealthy obsession with Tesla fires. /s
 
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No clear opinion on the full transition to 4860, but now we'll have something to revisit in about 2 years so see how things are going...

We saw at battery day that when 4860's start going into vehicles we'll see a jump in profits quickly afterwards so I'm excited for this to happen sooner rather than later!
4680 batteries only for Tesla.png
 
According to supercharge.info, there are 15 supercharger sites permitted or existing in Austin Texas, almost than double the number in Houston 🤔

It makes me think Tesla has something brewing in Austin. Welp, you heard it here first
This reminds me of how the other name locals have for Houston is the "Petro Metro" and that might go some distance toward explaining the dearth of Superchargers there. Just sayin' :rolleyes:
 
Let’s connect a few dots on pickup truck sentiment, agricultural land use, and EV policy.

Consider that Iowa farmers produced 2.58 billion bushels of corn in 2019 of which 99% is "field corn" (as opposed to sweet corn which is the corn people eat on the cob or as canned corn). Between 4% and 8% of Iowans‘ income derives directly from agriculture.

57% of Iowa field corn is used for ethanol production.

33% is used directly as animal feed.

A small portion is used for corn cereal, corn starch, corn oil and corn syrup for human consumption.

97% of Iowa’s 86,900 farms are family owned. I expect nearly all of the farms use one or more pickups and many other folks are going to be influenced by those owners.

The folks directly and indirectly deriving income from corn in the Corn Belt will probably be less able to afford any new pickup without a robust market for corn.

Many of these farmers are likely already hostile to EV’s. They probably and realistically consider EV’s a threat to their income. The trend towards artificial meat is also a threat. Bans or limits on corn syrup sweetened fizzy drinks are like salt on a wound.

So, it isn’t just the legacy auto and fossil fuel industries that are challenged by EV’s. Corn farmers undoubtedly see a threat.

As we forecast the course of the disruption and as we watch the politics around EV’s or see EV’s and climate change entangled in the culture wars, it is well to remember that people’s livelihoods are at stake and that they have political sway.

My own feeling is that the transition will be sharp and that pickup preferences will shift more rapidly than some here suggest. However, I also think that implementing policies and offering taxpayer support to help the corn farmers switch to crops and practices that maximize their soil’s ability to sequester carbon is a win all around. (And there’s a good place to put your shoulder to the wheel for those so inclined)



edit- For those interested:

Sustainability | E2

and

Here’s what I would broadly say; instead of being a ‘this is a problem’ person be a ‘let me find a solution’ person.

That is why people feel threatened, angry, defensive, bitter - because all they see, all they focus on is ‘omg, problem!’ If you once embrace coming at things from the other direction then you cease to feel negative about the need to change.
 
It will be interesting to watch how the credit evolves. Latest news indicates there may be a push to include an income cap:

This would be rather interesting, as I think it would actually benefit Tesla more for a similar reason I mentioned above: people on lower incomes are likely to be ordering cheaper entry level EVs (Model 3 / Y SR models) where Tesla is still profitable vs other manufactures who struggle to turn a profit with their entry level offerings.
 
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Tesla supposedly filing for five model Y variants.

Two short range lfp variants, two long range awd variants, and one performance variant.
*provided by kelvinyang on Twitter.

Checking Tesla china's website I only see three models currently:

Screenshot_20210810-233704_Chrome.jpg

Any ideas on what's going on here?

On a side note they also advertise enhanced Autopilot (EAP) which I thought wasn't being offered anymore, but makes sense they're still offering it in China due to the low takerate on FSD.
Screenshot_20210810-233719_Chrome.jpg